Vulnerability of Microfinance to Strategic Default and Covariate Shocks:Evidence from Pakistan

This paper investigates the repayment behavior of microfinance borrowers in Pakistan using a unique dataset of about 45,000 installments/repayments covering 2,945 microfinance borrower households over the period 1998-2007. In early 2005, the microfinance institution for these borrowers adopted a new system with strict enforcement of punishment against repayment delays/defaults. This reform led to a healthy situation with almost zero default rates, overcoming the previous problem of frequent defaults. We hypothesize that strategic default under the joint liability mechanism-if one group member is hit by a negative shock and faces difficulty in repayment, the other members who are able to repay may decide to default as well, instead of helping the unlucky member-was encouraged by weak enforcement of dynamic incentives and responsible for the pre-reform failure. As evidence for this interpretation, we show that a borrower’s delay in installment repayment was correlated with other group members’ repayment delays, beyond the level explained by possible correlation of project failures due to locally covariate shocks during the pre-reform period. The post-reform period is divided into two sub-periods by an earthquake in October 2005. Analysis of repayment behavior in the post-reform period yields the results that suggest that (1) the relative success under the new system was because of the suppression of strategic behavior among group members, thereby allowing joint liability schemes to function as individual lending schemes de facto and (2) the earthquake only marginally affected the new system in terms of repayment delays.group lending, joint liability, contingent renewal, strategic default, covariate shocks

Vulnerability of Microfinance to Strategic Default and Covariate Shocks: Evidence from Pakistan

This paper investigates the repayment behavior of microfinance borrowers in Pakistan using a unique dataset of about 45,000 installments/repayments covering 2,945 microfinance borrower households over the period 1998-2007. In early 2005, the microfinance institution for these borrowers adopted a new system with strict enforcement of punishment against repayment delays/defaults. This reform led to a healthy situation with almost zero default rates, overcoming the previous problem of frequent defaults. We hypothesize that strategic default under the joint liability mechanism--if one group member is hit by a negative shock and faces difficulty in repayment, the other members who are able to repay may decide to default as well, instead of helping the unlucky member--was encouraged by weak enforcement of dynamic incentives and responsible for the pre-reform failure. As evidence for this interpretation, we show that a borrower’s delay in installment repayment was correlated with other group members’ repayment delays, beyond the level explained by possible correlation of project failures due to locally covariate shocks during the pre-reform period. The post-reform period is divided into two sub-periods by an earthquake in October 2005. Analysis of repayment behavior in the post-reform period yields the results that suggest that (1) the relative success under the new system was because of the suppression of strategic behavior among group members, thereby allowing joint liability schemes to function as individual lending schemes de facto and (2) the earthquake only marginally affected the new system in terms of repayment delays.group lending, joint liability, contingent renewal, strategic default, covariate shocks

The Effectiveness of Community-Based Development in Poverty Reduction: A Descriptive Analysis of a Women-Managed NGO in Rural Pakistan

To assess the targeting performance of community-based development activities and deduce the impact of such activities on poverty reduction, we implemented a survey of a non-governmental organization (NGO) in northwestern Pakistan. A distinct characteristic of this NGO is that it is managed mostly by women and its interventions are conducted through community-based organizations (COs), most of whose members are also female. This characteristic is rather unusual for a male-dominated society like Pakistan. Descriptive analyses of village, CO, and household level data shows that the NGO was able to target poorer villages. Villages with COs are characterized by lower adult literacy rates, lower availability of basic amenities, and higher susceptibility to natural disasters. With regard to household-level welfare indicators - such as consumption, women’s empowerment, children’s school enrolment, and the weight-for-age of infants - we found that the consumption levels of CO member households tended to be lower than that of households in non-CO villages. However, the difference between CO member households and non-member households in CO villages was insignificant, possibly owing to the mixing of the selection effect (i.e., poorer households are served by the NGO) and the causal effect of interventions on poverty reduction. On women’s empowerment and child schooling, CO member households tend to perform better than other households, suggesting the favorable impact of the interventions and/or the self-selection of such households vis-à-vis program participation.

The Effectiveness of Community-Based Development in Poverty Reduction : A Descriptive Analysis of a Women-Managed NGO in Rural Pakistan

To assess the targeting performance of community-based development activities and deduce the impact of such activities on poverty reduction, we implemented a survey of a non-governmental organization (NGO) in northwestern Pakistan. A distinct characteristic of this NGO is that it is managed mostly by women and its interventions are conducted through community-based organizations (COs), most of whose members are also female. This characteristic is rather unusual for a male-dominated society like Pakistan. Descriptive analyses of village, CO, and household level data shows that the NGO was able to target poorer villages. Villages with COs are characterized by lower adult literacy rates, lower availability of basic amenities, and higher susceptibility to natural disasters. With regard to household-level welfare indicators -- such as consumption, women’s empowerment, children’s school enrolment, and the weight-for-age of infants -- we found that the consumption levels of CO member households tended to be lower than that of households in non-CO villages. However, the difference between CO member households and non-member households in CO villages was insignificant, possibly owing to the mixing of the selection effect (i.e., poorer households are served by the NGO) and the causal effect of interventions on poverty reduction. On women’s empowerment and child schooling, CO member households tend to perform better than other households, suggesting the favorable impact of the interventions and/or the self-selection of such households vis-à-vis program participation.

Targeting Performance of Community-based Development Interventions: An Econometric Analysis of a WomenFocused and Women-Managed Non-Governmental Organisation in Rural Pakistan

The approach of community-based development (CBD) is expected to improve targeting and reduce programme costs of poverty reduction policies, besides other positive contributions [Mansuri and Rao (2004)]. 1 Furthermore, the use of local knowledge is expected to bear greater relevance in a situation where credible monetary data for potential use in targeting activities are not available. According to Alatas, et al. (2012), in developing countries—where the majority of potential target group is employed in the informal sector—the availability of verifiable income records is always an issue. Therefore, it is difficult to identify target groups by employing conventional targeting techniques such as means tests. For these reasons, identification through the CBD approach is expected to improve targeting

A new classification of hemirings through double-framed soft h-ideals

Due to lack of parameterization, various ordinary uncertainty theories like theory of fuzzy sets, and theory of probability cannot solve complicated problems of economics and engineering involving uncertainties. The aim of the present paper was to provide an appropriate mathematical tool for solving such type of complicated problems. For the said purpose, the notion of double-framed soft sets in hemirings is introduced. As h-ideals of hemirings play a central role in the structural theory, therefore, we developed a new type of subsystem of hemirings. Double-framed soft left (right) h-ideal, double-framed soft h-bi-ideals and double-framed soft h-quasi-ideals of hemiring are determined. These concepts are elaborated through suitable examples. Furthermore, we are bridging ordinary h-ideals and double-framed soft h-ideals of hemirings through double-framed soft including sets and characteristic double-framed soft functions. It is also shown that every double-framed soft h-quasi-ideal is double-framed soft h-bi-ideal but the converse inclusion does not hold. A well-known class of hemrings i.e. h-hemiregular hemirings is characterized by the properties of these newly developed double-framed soft h-ideals o

Studies on Buddleja asiatica antibacterial, antifungal, antispasmodic and Ca++ antagonist activities

Crude extract of Buddleja asiatica Lour and its fractions, chloroform (F1), ethyl acetate (F2) and nbutanol (F3) were evaluated for antibacterial, antifungal, antispasmodic and Ca++ antagonist activities. The antibacterial activity was performed against 11 types of bacteria. The crude extract and fractions F2 and F3 exhibited significant activity, while F1 showed low activity in killing the Shigella flexenari, Sternostoma boydi and Escherichia coli. In the rest bacteria, the crude extract and all the fractions (F1 to F3) revealed minimum to nil inhibitory effect. The fungicidal activity of the crude extract and all the fractions (F1 to F3) was also performed against six different fungi. The crude extract and fractions F1 and F3 displayed significant activity, while fraction F2 showed moderate activity against Fusarium solani. In the case of Microsporum canis, the crude extract and fraction F3 showed high activity but in the other four fungi, the inhibition area exhibited optimum to nil activity in crude extract and all the fractions (F1 to F3). In isolated rabbit jejunum preparations, B. asiatica crude extract caused concentration-dependent (0.03 to 1.0 mg/ml) relaxation of spontaneous and high K+ (80 mM)-induced contractions. The results indicate the antibacterial, antifungal, antispasmodic and Ca++ antagonist potential of B. asiatica Lour

Bi-ideals of ordered semigroups based on the interval-valued fuzzy point

Interval-valued fuzzy set theory (advanced generalization of Zadeh’s fuzzy sets) is a more generalized theory that can deal with real world problems more precisely than ordinary fuzzy set theory. In this paper, we introduce the notion of generalized quasi-coincident with (q(Formula Presented)) relation of an interval-valued fuzzy point with an interval-valued fuzzy set. In fact, this new concept is a more generalized form of quasi-coincident with relation of an interval-valued fuzzy point with an interval-valued fuzzy set. Applying this newly defined idea, the notion of an interval-valued (∈,∈vq(Formula Presented)) -fuzzy bi-ideal is introduced. Moreover, some characterizations of interval-valued (∈,∈vq(Formula Presented)) -fuzzy bi-ideals are described. It is shown that an interval-valued (∈,∈vq(Formula Presented)) -fuzzy bi-ideal is an interval-valued fuzzy bi-ideal by imposing a condition on interval-valued fuzzy subset. Finally, the concept of implication-based interval-valued fuzzy bi-ideals, characterizations of an interval-valued fuzzy bi-ideal and an interval-valued (∈,∈vq(Formula Presented)) - fuzzy bi-ideal are considered

Construction of right nuclear square loop

Right nuclear square loops are loops satisfying y zz))==(xy)(zz). We construct an infinite family of non-associative non-commutative right nuclear square loops whose smallest member is of order 12