Extreme internal charging currents in medium Earth orbit: Analysis of SURF plate currents on Giove-A

Relativistic electrons can penetrate spacecraft shielding and can damage satellite components. Spacecraft in medium Earth orbit pass through the heart of the outer radiation belt and may be exposed to large fluxes of relativistic electrons, particularly during extreme space weather events. In this study we perform an extreme value analysis of the daily average internal charging currents at three different shielding depths in medium Earth orbit as a function of L∗ and along the orbit path. We use data from the SURF instrument on board the European Space Agency's Giove-A spacecraft from December 2005 to January 2016. The top, middle, and bottom plates of this instrument respond to electrons with energies >500 keV, >700 keV, and >1.1 MeV, respectively. The 1 in 10 year daily average top plate current decreases with increasing L∗ ranging from 1.0 pA cm−2 at L∗=4.75 to 0.03 pA cm−2 at L∗=7.0. The 1 in 100 year daily average top plate current is a factor of 1.2 to 1.8 larger than the corresponding 1 in 10 year current. The 1 in 10 year daily average middle and bottom plate currents also decrease with increasing L∗ ranging from 0.4 pA cm−2 at L∗=4.75 to 0.01 pA cm−2 at L∗=7.0. The 1 in 100 year daily average middle and bottom plate currents are a factor of 1.2 to 2.7 larger than the corresponding 1 in 10 year currents. Averaged along the orbit path the 1 in 10 year daily average top, middle, and bottom plate currents are 0.22, 0.094, and 0.094 pA cm−2, respectively

SPB stars in the open SMC cluster NGC 371

Pulsation in beta Cep and SPB stars are driven by the kappa mechanism which depends critically on the metallicity. It has therefore been suggested that beta Cep and SPB stars should be rare in the Magellanic Clouds which have lower metallicities than the solar neighborhood. To test this prediction we have observed the open SMC cluster NGC 371 for 12 nights in order to search for beta Cep and SPB stars. Surprisingly, we find 29 short-period B-type variables in the upper part of the main sequence, many of which are probably SPB stars. This result indicates that pulsation is still driven by the kappa mechanism even in low metallicity environments. All the identified variables have periods longer than the fundamental radial period which means that they cannot be beta Cep stars. Within an amplitude detection limit of 5 mmag no stars in the top of the HR-diagram show variability with periods shorter than the fundamental radial period. So if beta Cep stars are present in the cluster they oscillate with amplitudes below 5 mmag, which is significantly lower than the mean amplitude of beta Cep stars in the Galaxy. We see evidence that multimode pulsation is more common in the upper part of the main sequence than in the lower. We have also identified 5 eclipsing binaries and 3 periodic pulsating Be stars in the cluster field.Comment: 8 pages, 11 figures. Accepted for publication in MNRA

A statistical study of the performance of the Hakamada-Akasofu-Fry version 2 numerical model in predicting solar shock arrival times at Earth during different phases of solar cycle 23

The performance of the Hakamada Akasofu-Fry, version 2 (HAFv.2) numerical model, which provides predictions of solar shock arrival times at Earth, was subjected to a statistical study to investigate those solar/interplanetary circumstances under which the model performed well/poorly during key phases (rise/maximum/decay) of solar cycle 23. In addition to analyzing elements of the overall data set (584 selected events) associated with particular cycle phases, subsets were formed such that those events making up a particular sub-set showed common characteristics. The statistical significance of the results obtained using the various sets/subsets was generally very low and these results were not significant as compared with the hit by chance rate (50%). This implies a low level of confidence in the predictions of the model with no compelling result encouraging its use. However, the data suggested that the success rates of HAFv.2 were higher when the background solar wind speed at the time of shock initiation was relatively fast. Thus, in scenarios where the background solar wind speed is elevated and the calculated success rate significantly exceeds the rate by chance, the forecasts could provide potential value to the customer. With the composite statistics available for solar cycle 23, the calculated success rate at high solar wind speed, although clearly above 50%, was indicative rather than conclusive. The RMS error estimated for shock arrival times for every cycle phase and for the composite sample was in each case significantly better than would be expected for a random data set. Also, the parameter "Probability of Detection, yes" (PODy) which presents the Proportion of Yes observations that were correctly forecast (i.e. the ratio between the shocks correctly predicted and all the shocks observed), yielded values for the rise/maximum/decay phases of the cycle and using the composite sample of 0.85, 0.64, 0.79 and 0.77, respectively. The statistical results obtained through detailed analysis of the available data provided insights into how changing circumstances on the Sun and in interplanetary space can affect the performance of the model. Since shock arrival predictions are widely utilized in making commercially significant decisions re. protecting space assets, the present detailed archival studies can be useful in future operational decision making during solar cycle 24. It would be of added value in this context to use Briggs-Rupert methodology to estimate the cost to an operator of acting on an incorrect forecast

Photometric studies of three multiperiodic Beta Cephei stars: Beta CMa, 15 CMa and KZ Mus

We have carried out single and multi-site photometry of the three Beta Cephei stars Beta and 15 CMa as well as KZ Mus. For the two stars in CMa, we obtained 270 h of measurement in the Stromgren uvy and Johnson V filters, while 150 h of time-resolved Stromgren uvy photometry was acquired for KZ Mus. All three stars are multi-periodic variables, with three (Beta CMa) and four (15 CMa, KZ Mus) independent pulsation modes. Two of the mode frequencies of 15 CMa are new discoveries and one of the known modes showed amplitude variations over the last 33 years. Taken together, this explains the star's diverse behaviour reported in the literature fully. Mode identification by means of the amplitude ratios in the different passbands suggests one radial mode for each star. In addition, Beta CMa has a dominant l=2 mode while its third mode is nonradial with unknown l. The nonradial modes of 15 CMa, which are l <= 3, form an almost equally split triplet that, if physical, would imply that we see the star under an inclination angle larger than 55 degrees. The strongest nonradial mode of KZ Mus is l=2, followed by the radial mode and a dipole mode. Its weakest known mode is nonradial with unknown l, confirming previous mode identifications for the star's pulsations. The phased light curve for the strongest mode of 15 CMa has a descending branch steeper than the rising branch. A stillstand phenomenon during the rise to maximum light is indicated. Given the low photometric amplitude of this nonradial mode this is at first sight surprising, but it can be explained by the mode's aspect angle.Comment: 12 pages, 11 figure

Updated Model of the Solar Energetic Proton Environment in Space

The Solar Accumulated and Peak Proton and Heavy Ion Radiation Environment (SAPPHIRE) model provides environment specification outputs for all aspects of the Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) environment. The model is based upon a thoroughly cleaned and carefully processed data set. Herein the evolution of the solar proton model is discussed with comparisons to other models and data. This paper discusses the construction of the underlying data set, the modelling methodology, optimisation of fitted flux distributions and extrapolation of model outputs to cover a range of proton energies from 0.1 MeV to 1 GeV. The model provides outputs in terms of mission cumulative fluence, maximum event fluence and peak flux for both solar maximum and solar minimum periods. A new method for describing maximum event fluence and peak flux outputs in terms of 1-in-x-year SPEs is also described. SAPPHIRE proton model outputs are compared with previous models including CREME96, ESP-PSYCHIC and the JPL model. Low energy outputs are compared to SEP data from ACE/EPAM whilst high energy outputs are compared to a new model based on GLEs detected by Neutron Monitors (NMs)

Boron Abundances in Main Sequence B-type Stars: A Test of Rotational Depletion during Main Sequence Evolution

Boron abundances have been derived for seven main sequence B-type stars from HST STIS spectra around the B III 2066 A line. In two stars, boron appears to be undepleted with respect to the presumed initial abundance. In one star, boron is detectable but it is clearly depleted. In the other four stars, boron is undetectable implying depletions of 1 to 2 dex. Three of these four stars are nitrogen enriched, but the fourth shows no enrichment of nitrogen. Only rotationally induced mixing predicts that boron depletions are unaccompanied by nitrogen enrichments. The inferred rate of boron depletion from our observations is in good agreement with these predictions. Other boron-depleted nitrogen-normal stars are identified from the literature. Also, several boron-depleted nitrogen-rich stars are identified, and while all fall on the boron-nitrogen trend predicted by rotationally-induced mixing, a majority have nitrogen enrichments that are not uniquely explained by rotation. The spectra have also been used to determine iron-group (Cr, Mn, Fe, and Ni) abundances. The seven B-type stars have near solar iron-group abundances, as expected for young stars in the solar neighborhood. We have also analysed the halo B-type star, PG0832+676. We find [Fe/H] = -0.88 +/- 0.10, and the absence of the B III line gives the upper limit [B/H]<2.5. These and other published abundances are used to infer the star's evolutionary status as a post-AGB star.Comment: 31 pages, 14 figures. accepted to Ap