Prognosis and course of work-participation in patients with chronic non-specific low back pain: a 12-month follow-up cohort study

AbstractOBJECTIVE:To investigate the clinical course of, and prognostic factors for, work-participation in patients with chronic non-specific low back pain.METHODS:A total of 1,608 patients with chronic non-specific low back pain received a multidisciplinary therapy and were evaluated at baseline and 2-, 5- and 12-month follow-ups. Recovery was defined as absolute recovery if the patient worked 90% of his contract hours at follow-up. Potential factors were identified using multivariable logistic regression analysis.RESULTS:Patients reported a mean increase in work-participation from 38% at baseline to 82% after 12 months. Prognostic factors for ≥ 90% work-participation at 5 months were being married (odds ratio (OR) 1.72 (95% confidence interval (95% CI) 1.12-2.65)), male (OR 1.99 (95% CI 1.24-3.20)), a higher score on disability (OR 1.00 (95% CI 0.997-1.02)) and physical component scale (Short-Form 36 (SF-36)) (OR 1.05 (95% CI 1.02-1.07)), previous rehabilitation (OR 1.85 (95% CI 1.14-2.98)), not receiving sickness benefits (OR 0.52 (95% CI 0.24-1.10)) and more work-participation (OR 4.86 (95% CI 2.35-10.04)). More work-participation (OR 5.22 (95% CI 3.47-7.85)) and male sex (OR 1.79 (95% CI 1.25-2.55)) were also prognostic factors at 12-month follow-up.CONCLUSION:At 12 months 52% of patients reported ≥ 90% work-participation. The strongest prognostic factor was more work-participation at baseline for the recovery of chronic non-specific low back pai

Clinical prognostic factors for patients with anterior knee pain in physical therapy

Background: Although many authors have studied the prognostic factors that may contribute to anterior knee pain, synthesis of the existing evidence has not been performed. Purpose: The purpose of this systematic review is to summarize and examine existing prognostic models in patients with anterior knee pain that first present to physical therapists (primary care setting). Design: Systematic review Method: For this review Pubmed, Embase and Cinahl databases were searched and published papers that reported prognostic models for patients with anterior knee pain that first present to physical therapists (primary care setting) were selected. The authors extracted and summarized the univariate and multivariate predictors and evaluated which predictors consistently appeared to be relevant to pain, function, or recovery. Results: Nine studies were included. The quality scores of these s

Return to work in a cohort of low back pain patients: development and validation of a clinical prediction rule

BACKGROUND: From the viewpoint of cost prevention, it is necessary to identify patients that are of high risk for long-term work disability, production loss and sick-leave. METHODS: Secondary data analysis in a cohort of 628 workers on sick-leave between 3 and 6 weeks due to low back pain (LBP). The association of a broad set of demographic, work, LBP and psychosocial related factors on lasting return to work was studied using Cox regression analysis with backward selection. The most relevant factors were used to derive a clinical prediction rule to determine the risk of sick-leave of more than 6 months. Variable and model selection and clinical model performance were performed with bootstrapping techniques. Also the test characteristics of the clinical model were considered. RESULTS: Longer work absence is related to "moderate" to "poor" job satisfaction, a higher score of fear avoidance beliefs, higher pain intensity at baseline, a longer duration of complaints and being of female gender. Calibration and discrimination of the clinical prediction rule were 0.90 (slope) and 0.63 (c-index), respectively. The explained variance of 6% of the prediction rule was low and the clinical performance in terms of sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values at specific cut-off points was moderate. CONCLUSIONS: Our study confirmed the importance of demographic, work, LBP and psychosocial related factors on the prediction of long-term sick-leave. When these factors were used to derive a clinical prediction rule the performance was moderate. As a consequence, prudence has to be taken when using the prediction rule in practic

An individualized decision between physical therapy or surgery for patients with degenerative meniscal tears cannot be based on continuous treatment selection markers: a marker-by-treatment analysis of the ESCAPE study

Purpose Marker-by-treatment analyses are promising new methods in internal medicine, but have not yet been implemented in orthopaedics. With this analysis, specific cut-off points may be obtained, that can potentially identify whether meniscal surgery or physical therapy is the superior intervention for an individual patient. This study aimed to introduce a novel approach in orthopaedic research to identify relevant treatment selection markers that affect treatment outcome following meniscal surgery or physical therapy in patients with degenerative meniscal tears. Methods Data were analysed from the ESCAPE trial, which assessed the treatment of patients over 45 years old with a degenerative meniscal tear. The treatment outcome of interest was a clinically relevant improvement on the International Knee Documentation Committee Subjective Knee Form at 3, 12, and 24 months follow-up. Logistic regression models were developed to predict the outcome using baseline characteristics (markers), the treatment (meniscal surgery or physical therapy), and a marker-by-treatment interaction term. Interactions with p < 0.10 were considered as potential treatment selection markers and used these to develop predictiveness curves which provide thresholds to identify marker-based differences in clinical outcomes between the two treatments. Results Potential treatment selection markers included general physical health, pain during activities, knee function, BMI, and age. While some marker-based thresholds could be identified at 3, 12, and 24 months follow-up, none of the baseline characteristics were consistent markers at all three follow-up times. Conclusion This novel in-depth analysis did not result in clear clinical subgroups of patients who are substantially more likely to benefit from either surgery or physical therapy. However, this study may serve as an exemplar for other orthopaedic trials to investigate the heterogeneity in treatment effect. It will help clinicians to quantify the additional benefit of one treatment over another at an individual level, based on the patient's baseline characteristics.Orthopaedics, Trauma Surgery and Rehabilitatio

Systematic review on the comparative effectiveness of foot orthoses in patients with rheumatoid arthritis

BackgroundFoot orthoses (FOs) are prescribed as an important conservative treatment option in patients with foot problems related to rheumatoid arthritis. However, a broad variation in FOs is used, both in clinical practice and in research. To date, there is no overview on the outcomes of the treatment with different kinds of FOs in patients with rheumatoid arthritis and a specific foot problem. The objectives of the present study were to summarize the comparative effectiveness of FOs in the treatment of various foot problems in patients with rheumatoid arthritis, on the primary outcomes foot function and foot pain, and the secondary outcomes physical functioning, health related quality of life, compliance, adverse events, the costs of FOs and patient satisfaction.MethodsStudies comparing different kinds of FOs, with a presumed therapeutic effect, in the treatment of foot problems related to rheumatoid arthritis were included. A literature search was conducted in The Cochrane Central Registry for Controlled Trials (CENTRAL), PubMed, EMBASE and PEDro up to May 18th, 2018. Data was meta-analyzed, when this was not possible qualitative data analysis was performed.ResultsTen studies were identified, with a total number of 235 patients. These studies made a comparison between different materials used (soft versus semi-rigid), types of FOs (custom-made versus ready-made; total-contact versus non-total contact), or modifications applied (metatarsal bars versus domes). Also, different techniques to construct custom-made FOs were compared (standard custom-molding techniques versus more sophisticated techniques). A medium effect for (immediate) reduction of forefoot plantar pressure was found in favor of treatment with soft FOs compared to semi-rigid FOs (SMD 0.60, 95% CI 0.07-1.14; P=0.03; 28 participants). Other comparisons between FOs resulted in non-significant effects or inconclusive evidence for one kind of FOs over the other.ConclusionsFoot orthoses made of soft materials may lead to more (immediate) forefoot plantar pressure reduction compared to foot orthoses constructed of semi-rigid materials. Definitive high quality RCTs, with adequate sample sizes and long-term follow-up, are needed to investigate the comparative (cost-) effectiveness of different kinds of foot orthoses for the treatment of foot problems related to rheumatoid arthritis

Development and validation of two clinical prediction models to inform clinical decision-making for lumbar spinal fusion surgery for degenerative disorders and rehabilitation following surgery: protocol for a prospective observational study

INTRODUCTION: Potential predictors of poor outcome will be measured at baseline: (1) preoperatively to develop a clinical prediction model to predict which patients are likely to have favourable outcome following lumbar spinal fusion surgery (LSFS) and (2) postoperatively to predict which patients are likely to have favourable long-term outcomes (to inform rehabilitation). METHODS AND ANALYSIS: Prospective observational study with a defined episode inception of the point of surgery. Electronic data will be collected through the British Spine Registry and will include patient-reported outcome measures (eg, Fear-Avoidance Beliefs Questionnaire) and data items (eg, smoking status). Consecutive patients (≥18 years) undergoing LSFS for back and/or leg pain of degenerative cause will be recruited. EXCLUSION CRITERIA: LSFS for spinal fracture, inflammatory disease, malignancy, infection, deformity and revision surgery. 1000 participants will be recruited (n=600 prediction model development, n=400 internal validation derived model; planning 10 events per candidate prognostic factor). The outcome being predicted is an individual's absolute risk of poor outcome (disability and pain) at 6 weeks (objective 1) and 12 months postsurgery (objective 2). Disability and pain will be measured using the Oswestry Disability Index (ODI), and severity of pain in the previous week with a Numerical Rating Scale (NRS 0-10), respectively. Good outcome is defined as a change of 1.7 on the NRS for pain, and a change of 14.3 on the ODI. Both linear and logistic (to dichotomise outcome into low and high risk) multivariable regression models will be fitted and mean differences or ORs for each candidate predictive factor reported. Internal validation of the derived model will use a further set of British Spine Registry data. External validation will be geographical using two spinal registries in The Netherlands and Switzerland. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Ethical approval (University of Birmingham ERN_17-0446A). Dissemination through peer-reviewed journals and conferences

Clinical course and prognostic models for the conservative management of cervical radiculopathy: a prospective cohort study

Purpose: To describe the clinical course and develop prognostic models for poor recovery in patients with cervical radiculopathy who are managed conservatively. Methods: Sixty-one consecutive adults with cervical radiculopathy who were referred for conservative management were included in a prospective cohort study, with 6- and 12-month follow-up assessments. Exclusion criteria were the presence of known serious pathology or spinal surgery in the past. Outcome measures were perceived recovery, neck pain intensity and disability level. Multiple imputation analyses were performed for missing values. Prognostic models were developed using multivariable logistic regression analyses, with bootstrapping techniques for internal validation. Results: About 55% of participants reported to be recovered at 6 and 12 months. All multivariable models contained 2 baseline predictors. Longer symptoms duration increased the risk of poor perceived recovery, whereas the presence of paresthesia decreased this risk. A higher neck pain intensity and a longer duration of symptoms increased the risk of poor relief of neck pain. A higher disability score increased the risk of poor relief of disability, and larger active range of rotation toward the affected side decreased this risk. Following bootstrapping, the explained variance of t

Dynamic prediction model to identify young children at high risk of future overweight: Development and internal validation in a cohort study

Background: Primary prevention of overweight is to be preferred above secondary prevention, which has shown moderate effectiveness. Objective: To develop and internally validate a dynamic prediction model to identify young children in the general population, applicable at every age between birth and age 6, at high risk of future overweight (age 8). Methods: Data were used from the Prevention and Incidence of Asthma and Mite Allergy birth cohort, born in 1996 to 1997, in the Netherlands. Participants for whom data on the outcome overweight at age 8 and at least three body mass index SD scores (BMI SDS) at the age of ≥3 months and ≤6 years were available, were included (N = 2265). The outcome of the prediction model is overweight (yes/no) at age 8 (range 7.4-10.5 years), defined according to the sex- and age-specific BMI cut-offs of the International Obesity Task Force. Results: After backward selection in a Generalized Estimating Equations analysis, the prediction model included the baseline predictors maternal BMI, paternal BMI, paternal education, birthweight, sex, ethnicity and indoor smoke exposure; and the longitudinal predictors BMI SDS, and the linear and quadratic terms of the growth curve describing a child's BMI SDS development over time, as well as the longitudinal predictors' interactions with age. The area under the curve of the model after internal validation was 0.845 and Nagelkerke R2 was 0.351. Conclusions: A dynamic prediction model for overweight was developed with a good predictive ability using easily obtainable predictor information. External validation is needed to confirm that the model has potential for use in practice

Chorioamnionitis induces hepatic inflammation and time-dependent changes of the enterohepatic circulation in the ovine fetus

Chorioamnionitis, inflammation of fetal membranes, is an important cause of preterm birth and a risk factor for the development of adverse neonatal outcomes including sepsis and intestinal pathologies. Intestinal bile acids (BAs) accumulation and hepatic cytokine production are involved in adverse intestinal outcomes. These findings triggered us to study the liver and enterohepatic circulation (EHC) following intra-amniotic (IA) lipopolysaccharide (LPS) exposure. An ovine chorioamnionitis model was used in which circulatory cytokines and outcomes of the liver and EHC of preterm lambs were longitudinally assessed following IA administration of 10 mg LPS at 5, 12 or 24h or 2, 4, 8 or 15d before preterm birth. Hepatic inflammation was observed, characterized by increased hepatic cytokine mRNA levels (5h – 2d post IA LPS exposure) and increased erythropoietic clusters (at 8 and 15 days post IA LPS exposure). Besides, 12h after IA LPS exposure, plasma BA levels were increased, whereas gene expression levels of several hepatic BA transporters were decreased. Initial EHC alterations normalized over time. Concluding, IA LPS exposure induces significant time-dependent changes in the fetal liver and EHC. These chorioamnionitis induced changes have potential postnatal consequences and the duration of IA LPS exposure might be essential herein

Chorioamnionitis induces enteric nervous system injury: Effects of timing and inflammation in the ovine fetus

Background Chorioamnionitis, inflammation of the chorion and amnion, which often results from intrauterine infection, is associated with premature birth and contributes to significant neonatal morbidity and mortality, including necrotizing enterocolitis (NEC). Recently, we have shown that chronic chorioamnionitis is associated with significant structural enteric nervous system (ENS) abnormalities that may predispose to later NEC development. Understanding time point specific effects of an intra-amniotic (IA) infection on the ENS is important for further understanding the pathophysiological processes and for finding a window for optimal therapeutic strategies for an individual patient. The aim of this study was therefore to gain insight in the longitudinal effects of intrauterine LPS exposure (ranging from 5 h to 15 days before premature delivery) on the intestinal mucosa, submucosa, and ENS in fetal lambs by use of a well-established translational ovine chorioamnionitis model. Methods We used an ovine chorioamnionitis model to assess outcomes of the fetal ileal mucosa, submucosa and ENS following IA exposure to one dose of 10 mg LPS for 5, 12 or 24 h or 2, 4, 8 or 15 days. Results Four days of IA LPS exposure causes a decreased PGP9.5- and S100β-positive surface area in the myenteric plexus along with submucosal and mucosal intestinal inflammation that coincided with systemic inflammation. These changes were preceded by a glial cell reaction with early systemic and local gut inflammation. ENS changes and inflammation recovered 15 days after the IA LPS exposure. Conclusions The pattern of mucosal and submucosal inflammation, and ENS alterations in the fetus changed over time following IA LPS exposure. Although ENS damage seemed to recover after prolonged IA LPS exposure, additional postnatal inflammatory exposure, which a premature is likely to encounter, may further harm the ENS and influence functional outcome. In this context, 4 to 8 days of IA LPS exposure may form a period of increased ENS vulnerability and a potential window for optimal therapeutic strategies