Predicting climate change using response theory: global averages and spatial patterns

The provision of accurate methods for predicting the climate response to anthropogenic and natural forcings is a key contemporary scientific challenge. Using a simplified and efficient open-source general circulation model of the atmosphere featuring O(105105) degrees of freedom, we show how it is possible to approach such a problem using nonequilibrium statistical mechanics. Response theory allows one to practically compute the time-dependent measure supported on the pullback attractor of the climate system, whose dynamics is non-autonomous as a result of time-dependent forcings. We propose a simple yet efficient method for predicting—at any lead time and in an ensemble sense—the change in climate properties resulting from increase in the concentration of CO22 using test perturbation model runs. We assess strengths and limitations of the response theory in predicting the changes in the globally averaged values of surface temperature and of the yearly total precipitation, as well as in their spatial patterns. The quality of the predictions obtained for the surface temperature fields is rather good, while in the case of precipitation a good skill is observed only for the global average. We also show how it is possible to define accurately concepts like the inertia of the climate system or to predict when climate change is detectable given a scenario of forcing. Our analysis can be extended for dealing with more complex portfolios of forcings and can be adapted to treat, in principle, any climate observable. Our conclusion is that climate change is indeed a problem that can be effectively seen through a statistical mechanical lens, and that there is great potential for optimizing the current coordinated modelling exercises run for the preparation of the subsequent reports of the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change

Object Segmentation from Motion Discontinuities and Temporal Occlusions–A Biologically Inspired Model

BACKGROUND: Optic flow is an important cue for object detection. Humans are able to perceive objects in a scene using only kinetic boundaries, and can perform the task even when other shape cues are not provided. These kinetic boundaries are characterized by the presence of motion discontinuities in a local neighbourhood. In addition, temporal occlusions appear along the boundaries as the object in front covers the background and the objects that are spatially behind it. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: From a technical point of view, the detection of motion boundaries for segmentation based on optic flow is a difficult task. This is due to the problem that flow detected along such boundaries is generally not reliable. We propose a model derived from mechanisms found in visual areas V1, MT, and MSTl of human and primate cortex that achieves robust detection along motion boundaries. It includes two separate mechanisms for both the detection of motion discontinuities and of occlusion regions based on how neurons respond to spatial and temporal contrast, respectively. The mechanisms are embedded in a biologically inspired architecture that integrates information of different model components of the visual processing due to feedback connections. In particular, mutual interactions between the detection of motion discontinuities and temporal occlusions allow a considerable improvement of the kinetic boundary detection. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: A new model is proposed that uses optic flow cues to detect motion discontinuities and object occlusion. We suggest that by combining these results for motion discontinuities and object occlusion, object segmentation within the model can be improved. This idea could also be applied in other models for object segmentation. In addition, we discuss how this model is related to neurophysiological findings. The model was successfully tested both with artificial and real sequences including self and object motion

Line orientation adaptation: local or global?

Prolonged exposure to an oriented line shifts the perceived orientation of a subsequently observed line in the opposite direction, a phenomenon known as the tilt aftereffect (TAE). Here we consider whether the TAE for line stimuli is mediated by a mechanism that integrates the local parts of the line into a single global entity prior to the site of adaptation, or the result of the sum of local TAEs acting separately on the parts of the line. To test between these two alternatives we used the fact the TAE transfers almost completely across luminance contrast polarity [1]. We measured the TAE using adaptor and test lines that (1) either alternated in luminance polarity or were of a single polarity, and (2) either alternated in local orientation or were of a single orientation. We reasoned that if the TAE was agnostic to luminance polarity and was parts-based, we should obtain large TAEs using alternating-polarity adaptors with single-polarity tests. However we found that (i) TAEs using one-alternating-polarity adaptors with all-white tests were relatively small, increased slightly for two-alternating-polarity adaptors, and were largest with all-white or all-black adaptors. (ii) however TAEs were relatively large when the test was one-alternating polarity, irrespective of the adaptor type. (iii) The results with orientation closely mirrored those obtained with polarity with the difference that the TAE transfer across orthogonal orientations was weak. Taken together, our results demonstrate that the TAE for lines is mediated by a global shape mechanism that integrates the parts of lines into whole prior to the site of orientation adaptation. The asymmetry in the magnitude of TAE depending on whether the alternating-polarity lines was the adaptor or test can be explained by an imbalance in the population of neurons sensitive to 1st-and 2nd-order lines, with the 2nd-order lines being encoded by a subset of the mechanisms sensitive to 1st-order lines

Feed-Forward Segmentation of Figure-Ground and Assignment of Border-Ownership

Figure-ground is the segmentation of visual information into objects and their surrounding backgrounds. Two main processes herein are boundary assignment and surface segregation, which rely on the integration of global scene information. Recurrent processing either by intrinsic horizontal connections that connect surrounding neurons or by feedback projections from higher visual areas provide such information, and are considered to be the neural substrate for figure-ground segmentation. On the contrary, a role of feedforward projections in figure-ground segmentation is unknown. To have a better understanding of a role of feedforward connections in figure-ground organization, we constructed a feedforward spiking model using a biologically plausible neuron model. By means of surround inhibition our simple 3-layered model performs figure-ground segmentation and one-sided border-ownership coding. We propose that the visual system uses feed forward suppression for figure-ground segmentation and border-ownership assignment

Visual Stability and the Motion Aftereffect: A Psychophysical Study Revealing Spatial Updating

Eye movements create an ever-changing image of the world on the retina. In particular, frequent saccades call for a compensatory mechanism to transform the changing visual information into a stable percept. To this end, the brain presumably uses internal copies of motor commands. Electrophysiological recordings of visual neurons in the primate lateral intraparietal cortex, the frontal eye fields, and the superior colliculus suggest that the receptive fields (RFs) of special neurons shift towards their post-saccadic positions before the onset of a saccade. However, the perceptual consequences of these shifts remain controversial. We wanted to test in humans whether a remapping of motion adaptation occurs in visual perception

Roflumilast in moderate-to-severe chronic obstructive pulmonary disease treated with longacting bronchodilators: two randomised clinical trials

Background Patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) have few options for treatment. The efficacy and safety of the phosphodiesterase-4 inhibitor roflumilast have been investigated in studies of patients with moderate-to-severe COPD, but not in those concomitantly treated with longacting inhaled bronchodilators. The effect of roflumilast on lung function in patients with COPD that is moderate to severe who are already being treated with salmeterol or tiotropium was investigated. Methods In two double-blind, multicentre studies done in an outpatient setting, after a 4-week run-in, patients older than 40 years with moderate-to-severe COPD were randomly assigned to oral roflumilast 500 mu g or placebo once a day for 24 weeks, in addition to salmeterol (M2-127 study) or tiotropium (M2-128 study). The primary endpoint was change in prebronchodilator forced expiratory volume in 1s (FEV(1)). Analysis was by intention to treat. The studies are registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT00313209 for M2-127, and NCT00424268 for M2-128. Findings In the salmeterol plus roflumilast trial, 466 patients were assigned to and treated with roflumilast and 467 with placebo; in the tiotropium plus roflumilast trial, 371 patients were assigned to and treated with roflumilast and 372 with placebo. Compared with placebo, roflumilast consistently improved mean prebronchodilator FEV(1) by 49 mL (p<0.0001) in patients treated with salmeterol, and 80 mL (p<0.0001) in those treated with tiotropium. Similar improvement in postbronchodilator FEV(1) was noted in both groups. Furthermore, roflumilast had beneficial effects on other lung function measurements and on selected patient-reported outcomes in both groups. Nausea, diarrhoea, weight loss, and, to a lesser extent, headache were more frequent in patients in the roflumilast groups. These adverse events were associated with increased patient withdrawal. Interpretation Roflumilast improves lung function in patients with COPD treated with salmeterol or tiotropium, and could become an important treatment for these patients

Introduction to the special issue on the statistical mechanics of climate

We introduce the special issue on the Statistical Mechanics of Climate by presenting an informal discussion of some theoretical aspects of climate dynamics that make it a topic of great interest for mathematicians and theoretical physicists. In particular, we briefly discuss its nonequilibrium and multiscale properties, the relationship between natural climate variability and climate change, the different regimes of climate response to perturbations, and critical transitions