Regional climate change predictions from the Goddard Institute for Space Studies high resolution GCM

A new diagnostic tool is developed for examining relationships between the synoptic scale circulation and regional temperature distributions in GCMs. The 4 x 5 deg GISS GCM is shown to produce accurate simulations of the variance in the synoptic scale sea level pressure distribution over the U.S. An analysis of the observational data set from the National Meteorological Center (NMC) also shows a strong relationship between the synoptic circulation and grid point temperatures. This relationship is demonstrated by deriving transfer functions between a time-series of circulation parameters and temperatures at individual grid points. The circulation parameters are derived using rotated principal components analysis, and the temperature transfer functions are based on multivariate polynomial regression models. The application of these transfer functions to the GCM circulation indicates that there is considerable spatial bias present in the GCM temperature distributions. The transfer functions are also used to indicate the possible changes in U.S. regional temperatures that could result from differences in synoptic scale circulation between a 1XCO2 and a 2xCO2 climate, using a doubled CO2 version of the same GISS GCM

North Atlantic climate variability from a self-organizing map perspective

[1] North Atlantic variability in general, and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) in particular, is a long-studied, very important but still not well-understood problem in climatology. The recent trend to a higher wintertime NAO index was accompanied by an additional increase in the Azores High not coupled to changes in the Icelandic Low, as shown by a self-organizing maps (SOMs) analysis of monthly mean DJF mean sea level pressure data from 1957 to 2002. SOMs are a nonlinear tool to optimally extract a user-specified number of patterns or icons from an input data set and to uniquely relate any input data field to an icon, allowing analyses of occurrence frequencies and transitions complementary to principal component analysis (PCA). SOMs analysis of ERA-40 data finds a North Atlantic monopole roughly colocated with the mean position of the Azores High, as well as the well-known NAO dipole involving the Icelandic Low and the subtropical high. Little trend is shown in December, but the Azores High increased along with the NAO in January and February over the study interval, with implications for storminess in northwestern Europe. In short, our SOM-based analyses of winter MSLP have both confirmed prior knowledge and expanded it through the relative ease of use and power with nonlinear systems of the SOM-based approach to climatological analysis

Physical instrumental vetoes for gravitational-wave burst triggers

We present a robust strategy to \emph{veto} certain classes of instrumental glitches that appear at the output of interferometric gravitational-wave (GW) detectors.This veto method is `physical' in the sense that, in order to veto a burst trigger, we make use of our knowledge of the coupling of different detector subsystems to the main detector output. The main idea behind this method is that the noise in an instrumental channel X can be \emph{transferred} to the detector output (channel H) using the \emph{transfer function} from X to H, provided the noise coupling is \emph{linear} and the transfer function is \emph{unique}. If a non-stationarity in channel H is causally related to one in channel X, the two have to be consistent with the transfer function. We formulate two methods for testing the consistency between the burst triggers in channel X and channel H. One method makes use of the \emph{null-stream} constructed from channel H and the \emph{transferred} channel X, and the second involves cross-correlating the two. We demonstrate the efficiency of the veto by `injecting' instrumental glitches in the hardware of the GEO 600 detector. The \emph{veto safety} is demonstrated by performing GW-like hardware injections. We also show an example application of this method using 5 days of data from the fifth science run of GEO 600. The method is found to have very high veto efficiency with a very low accidental veto rate.Comment: Minor changes, To appear in Phys. Rev.

A review of South African research in atmospheric science and physical oceanography during 2000-2005

The purpose of this article is to review progress in the fields of atmospheric science and physical oceanography made by workers based at South African institutions over approximately the last 5 years. Research published by South African scientists working abroad is not included. Most published research in these fields falls within the broad areas of climate variability, climate change, aerosols and atmospheric pollution, seasonal forecasting, numerical modelling (both atmospheric and oceanic), and the physical oceanography of the Agulhas and Benguela current systems. Most but not all of the atmospheric science papers relate to South Africa or southern Africa; however, some work pertaining to the southern hemisphere as a whole or to other regions has been done. We note that funding and institutional support for atmospheric science and physical oceanography research in South Africa remains poor and this situation significantly hampers local efforts

The upgrade of GEO600

The German / British gravitational wave detector GEO 600 is in the process of being upgraded. The upgrading process of GEO 600, called GEO-HF, will concentrate on the improvement of the sensitivity for high frequency signals and the demonstration of advanced technologies. In the years 2009 to 2011 the detector will undergo a series of upgrade steps, which are described in this paper.Comment: 9 pages, Amaldi 8 conference contributio

Triple Michelson Interferometer for a Third-Generation Gravitational Wave Detector

The upcoming European design study `Einstein gravitational-wave Telescope' represents the first step towards a substantial, international effort for the design of a third-generation interferometric gravitational wave detector. It is generally believed that third-generation instruments might not be installed into existing infrastructures but will provoke a new search for optimal detector sites. Consequently, the detector design could be subject to fewer constraints than the on-going design of the second generation instruments. In particular, it will be prudent to investigate alternatives to the traditional L-shaped Michelson interferometer. In this article, we review an old proposal to use three Michelson interferometers in a triangular configuration. We use this example of a triple Michelson interferometer to clarify the terminology and will put this idea into the context of more recent research on interferometer technologies. Furthermore the benefits of a triangular detector will be used to motivate this design as a good starting point for a more detailed research effort towards a third-generation gravitational wave detector.Comment: Minor corrections to the main text and two additional appendices. 14 pages, 6 figure

Status of the GEO600 gravitational wave detector

The GEO600 laser interferometric gravitational wave detector is approaching the end of its commissioning phase which started in 1995.During a test run in January 2002 the detector was operated for 15 days in a power-recycled michelson configuration. The detector and environmental data which were acquired during this test run were used to test the data analysis code. This paper describes the subsystems of GEO600, the status of the detector by August 2002 and the plans towards the first science run

A comparison of methods for gravitational wave burst searches from LIGO and Virgo

The search procedure for burst gravitational waves has been studied using 24 hours of simulated data in a network of three interferometers (Hanford 4-km, Livingston 4-km and Virgo 3-km are the example interferometers). Several methods to detect burst events developed in the LIGO Scientific Collaboration (LSC) and Virgo collaboration have been studied and compared. We have performed coincidence analysis of the triggers obtained in the different interferometers with and without simulated signals added to the data. The benefits of having multiple interferometers of similar sensitivity are demonstrated by comparing the detection performance of the joint coincidence analysis with LSC and Virgo only burst searches. Adding Virgo to the LIGO detector network can increase by 50% the detection efficiency for this search. Another advantage of a joint LIGO-Virgo network is the ability to reconstruct the source sky position. The reconstruction accuracy depends on the timing measurement accuracy of the events in each interferometer, and is displayed in this paper with a fixed source position example.Comment: LIGO-Virgo working group submitted to PR

Different atmospheric moisture divergence responses to extreme and moderate El Niños

On seasonal and inter-annual time scales, vertically integrated moisture divergence provides a useful measure of the tropical atmospheric hydrological cycle. It reflects the combined dynamical and thermodynamical effects, and is not subject to the limitations that afflict observations of evaporation minus precipitation. An empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis of the tropical Pacific moisture divergence fields calculated from the ERA-Interim reanalysis reveals the dominant effects of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on inter-annual time scales. Two EOFs are necessary to capture the ENSO signature, and regression relationships between their Principal Components and indices of equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) demonstrate that the transition from strong La Niña through to extreme El Niño events is not a linear one. The largest deviation from linearity is for the strongest El Niños, and we interpret that this arises at least partly because the EOF analysis cannot easily separate different patterns of responses that are not orthogonal to each other. To overcome the orthogonality constraints, a self-organizing map (SOM) analysis of the same moisture divergence fields was performed. The SOM analysis captures the range of responses to ENSO, including the distinction between the moderate and strong El Niños identified by the EOF analysis. The work demonstrates the potential for the application of SOM to large scale climatic analysis, by virtue of its easier interpretation, relaxation of orthogonality constraints and its versatility for serving as an alternative classification method. Both the EOF and SOM analyses suggest a classification of “moderate” and “extreme” El Niños by their differences in the magnitudes of the hydrological cycle responses, spatial patterns and evolutionary paths. Classification from the moisture divergence point of view shows consistency with results based on other physical variables such as SST

Control and automatic alignment of the output mode cleaner of GEO 600

The implementation of a mode cleaner at the output port of the GEO 600 gravitational wave detector will be part of the upcoming transition from GEO 600 to GEO-HF. Part of the transition will be the move from a heterodyne readout to a DC readout scheme. DC readout performance will be limited by higher order optical modes and control sidebands present at the output port. For optimum performance of DC readout an output mode cleaner (OMC) will clean the output beam of these contributions. Inclusion of an OMC will introduce new noise sources whose magnitudes needed to be estimated and for which new control systems will be needed. In this article we set requirements on the performance of these control systems and investigate the simulated performance of different designs.Science and Technology Facilities Council (STFC)BMBFMax Planck Society (MPG)State of Lower Saxony in GermanyEuropean Gravitational Observatory (EGO)DFG/SFB/Transregio