Goal-oriented adaptivity for idealised tropical cyclones: A binary interaction scenario

Forecasting the motion and evolution of tropical cyclones is a challenging, computationally expensive task. Complex, interacting physical processes on a wide range of scales need to be considered. Adaptive techniques, such as local mesh refinement, are a promising way to improve the efficiency of numerical models for such multi-scale problems. We investigate the interaction of two tropical cyclones in a barotropic model assuming exact initial conditions and discuss how the impact of discretization errors on the prediction of storm tracks can be minimized using adjoint-based goal-oriented adaptivity. We propose suitable functionals for the prediction of storm tracks, interpret the associated sensitivity from a meteorological point of view and discuss its relation to sensitivity measures commonly used in meteorological applications. We present numerical results of adaptive simulations on optimized meshes and adaptive time stepping controlled by a posteriori error estimators that exploit the sensitivity information. Using goal-oriented adaptivity, the storm tracks can be determined about one order of magnitude more precisely, compared to uniform discretizations with the same number of unknowns. The highest improvement in accuracy (up to two orders of magnitude) can be observed for meshes with comparatively low number of cells

Computing the first eigenpair of the p-Laplacian via inverse iteration of sublinear supersolutions

We introduce an iterative method for computing the first eigenpair $(\lambda_{p},e_{p})$ for the $p$-Laplacian operator with homogeneous Dirichlet data as the limit of $(\mu_{q,}u_{q})$ as $q\rightarrow p^{-}$, where $u_{q}$ is the positive solution of the sublinear Lane-Emden equation $-\Delta_{p}u_{q}=\mu_{q}u_{q}^{q-1}$ with same boundary data. The method is shown to work for any smooth, bounded domain. Solutions to the Lane-Emden problem are obtained through inverse iteration of a super-solution which is derived from the solution to the torsional creep problem. Convergence of $u_{q}$ to $e_{p}$ is in the $C^{1}$-norm and the rate of convergence of $\mu_{q}$ to $\lambda_{p}$ is at least $O(p-q)$. Numerical evidence is presented.Comment: Section 5 was rewritten. Jed Brown was added as autho

Fertility, Living Arrangements, Care and Mobility

There are four main interconnecting themes around which the contributions in this book are based. This introductory chapter aims to establish the broad context for the chapters that follow by discussing each of the themes. It does so by setting these themes within the overarching demographic challenge of the twenty-first century – demographic ageing. Each chapter is introduced in the context of the specific theme to which it primarily relates and there is a summary of the data sets used by the contributors to illustrate the wide range of cross-sectional and longitudinal data analysed

Association of limbic system-associated membrane protein (LSAMP) to male completed suicide

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Neuroimaging studies have demonstrated volumetric abnormalities in limbic structures of suicide victims. The morphological changes might be caused by some inherited neurodevelopmental defect, such as failure to form proper axonal connections due to genetically determined dysfunction of neurite guidance molecules. Limbic system-associated membrane protein (LSAMP) is a neuronal adhesive molecule, preferentially expressed in developing limbic system neuronal dendrites and somata. Some evidence for the association between LSAMP gene and behavior has come from both animal as well as human studies but further investigation is required. In current study, polymorphic loci in human LSAMP gene were examined in order to reveal any associations between genetic variation in <it>LSAMP </it>and suicidal behaviour.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>DNA was obtained from 288 male suicide victims and 327 healthy male volunteers. Thirty SNPs from LSAMP gene and adjacent region were selected by Tagger algorithm implemented in Haploview 3.32. Genotyping was performed using the SNPlex™ (Applied Biosystems) platform. Data was analyzed by Genemapper 3.7, Haploview 3.32 and SPSS 13.0.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Chi square test revealed four allelic variants (rs2918215, rs2918213, rs9874470 and rs4821129) located in the intronic region of the gene to be associated with suicide, major alleles being overrepresented in suicide group. However, the associations did not survive multiple correction test. Defining the haplotype blocks using confidence interval algorithm implemented in Haploview 3.32, we failed to detect any associated haplotypes.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Despite a considerable amount of investigation on the nature of suicidal behaviour, its aetiology and pathogenesis remain unknown. This study examined the variability in LSAMP gene in relation to completed suicide. Our results indicate that LSAMP might play a role in pathoaetiology of suicidal behaviour but further studies are needed to understand its exact contribution.</p

Instability, investment, disasters, and demography: natural disasters and fertility in Italy (1820–1962) and Japan (1671–1965)

This article examines whether natural disasters affect fertility—a topic little explored but of policy importance given relevance to policies regarding disaster insurance, foreign aid, and the environment. The identification strategy uses historic regional data to exploit natural variation within each of two countries: one European country—Italy (1820–1962), and one Asian country—Japan (1671–1965). The choice of study settings allows consideration of Jones’ (The European miracle, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 1981) theory that preindustrial differences in income and population between Asia and Europe resulted from the fertility response to different environmental risk profiles. According to the results, short-run instability, particularly that arising from the natural environment, appears to be associated with a decrease in fertility—thereby suggesting that environmental shocks and economic volatility are associated with a decrease in investment in the population size of future generations. The results also show that, contrary to Jones’ (The European miracle, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 1981) theory, differences in fertility between Italy and Japan cannot be explained away by disaster proneness alone. Research on the effects of natural disasters may enable social scientists and environmentalists alike to better predict the potential effects of the increase in natural disasters that may result from global climate change

Rationales, design and recruitment for the Elfe longitudinal study

Background Many factors act simultaneously in childhood to influence health status, life chances and well being, including pre-birth influences, the environmental pollutants of early life, health status but also the social influences of family and school. A cohort study is needed to disentangle these influences and explore attribution. Methods Elfe will be a nationally representative cohort of 20 000 children followed from birth to adulthood using a multidisciplinary approach. The cohort will be based on the INSEE Permanent Demographic Panel (EDP) established using census data and civil records. The sample size has been defined in order to match the representativeness criteria and to obtain some prevalence estimation, but also to address the research area of low exposure/rare effects. The cohort will be based on repeated surveys by face to face or phone interview (at birth and each year) as well as medical interview (at 2 years) and examination (at 6 years). Furthermore, biological samples will be taken at birth to evaluate the foetal exposition to toxic substances, environmental sensors will be placed in the child's homes. Pilot studies have been initiated in 2007 (500 children) with an overall acceptance rate of 55% and are currently under progress, the 2-year survey being carried out in October this year. Discussion The longitudinal study will provide a unique source of data to analyse the development of children in their environment, to study the various factors interacting throughout the life course up to adulthood and to determine the impact of childhood experience on the individual's physical, psychological, social and professional development