Prediction of non-stationary time series with the adaptive step method

A study is conducted into methods of better forecasting non-stationary time series. Previously proposed methods are reviewed and their strong and weak areas of operation noted

A Sociological Study of the Use of Cannabis.

This thesis is about the use of cannabis amongst students from a university in the south of England.* Its aims are to illuminate the nature of cannabis use by adopting a phenomenological perspective, to extend previous 'naturalistic' work on this topic, and thereby to demonstrate the value of asking phenomenological questions. In the first chapter, the main findings and features of previous naturalistic research on cannabis use are critically reviewed. It is suggested that, when examined from a phenomenological point of view, such research takes for granted and leaves unexpiated several important aspects of the phenomenon of cannabis and that it thereby only partially illuminates its nature. Subsequent chapters focus attention on these neglected issues. In chapter two, the nature of the social types of cannabis users which are employed by the members themselves is examined. Particular attention is paid to members' grounds for typing users in terms of the two predominant social types in use at the time of this research - the 'head' and the 'freak'. It is suggested that these grounds may be expressed sociologically in terms of four main constructs: centrality, context, community and commitment. In chapter three, the nature of cannabis as a substance from the perspective of the users is analysed, with particular emphasis being placed on members' categories of cannabis and their methods of interpretive work whereby they decide (a) whether a substance is cannabis at all, (b) what type of cannabis it is and (c) the quality of cannabis. Chapter four presents a sequential analysis of the procedural basis of the use of cannabis, with special attention being directed to the use of different methods of consuming the drug and to the social organisation of collective consumption. In chapter five, the focus is on the effects of cannabis. Here particular attention is given to members' conceptions of their experiences of the drug, to their understandings of the production of different kinds of effects, to their interpretive work involved in 'making sense' of these effects, and to their methods for achieving IV or avoiding certain kinds of cannabis experiences. The subject matter of chapter six is the morality of cannabis use. The focus here is on how members account for their initial and subsequent use of the drug, their conceptions of its morality, their grounds for defining its proscription as unwarranted, and their methods for sustaining their version of the morality of cannabis use in social interaction. Chapter seven discusses users' cultural solutions to the problem of acquiring cannabis. The main focus is on their methods of quantifying cannabis, their understandings of the cannabis market and their practices and procedures for conducting cannabis transactions. Chapter eight analyses members’ conceptions of the risks of being a cannabis user, firstly in the sense of the perceived consequences of discovery and, secondly, in terms of the perceived chances of being apprehended. Members’ concealment strategies, taken in the light of their assessments of the risks involved, are then described and their grounds for their selective use analysed. In chapter nine, some formal phenomenological and structural conditions underlying the use of cannabis in this setting are discussed, together with some substantive and theoretical implications of the preceding chapters. Finally, in chapter ten, some suggestions for future research are made. * Pseudonyms are used throughout this thesis in order to protect the anonymity of the students and the university

The Prehistoric Sites at Choke Canyon Reservoir, Southern Texas: Results of Phase II Archaeological Investigations

Reported in this volume are the results of archaeological investigations at 72 prehistoric sites located in the basin of Choke Canyon Reservoir on the Frio River in Live Oak and McMullen Counties, southern Texas. The sites investigated in this study will be affected in one way or another by a lake formed after construction of Choke Canyon Dam, a project of the United States Bureau of Reclamation CUSBR). The research was sponsored by the USBR as the second and final phase of a two-stage program of archaeological investigations designed to mitigate damage or destruction of cultural resources resulting from dam construction and subsequent long-term inundation of a large area of the Frio River valley. Methods used to study Choke Canyon\u27s prehistoric sites during the Phase II investigation were various types of subsurface excavations, documentation of surface features and characteristics, and collection of artifacts from site surfaces. The people who inhabited the Choke Canyon region in prehistoric times, representing an approximate span of 10,000 years, existed as mobile hunter/gatherer bands. They subsisted by tapping virtually every conceivable source of edible natural food. A full spectrum of animals, from lowly field mice and lizards up to bison and deer, was exploited by various techniques of hunting, trapping, and catching. Large land snails and mussels were sources of meat food that Choke Canyon\u27s prehistoric people could easily gather. Gar, drum, and turtles were taken from local creeks, sloughs, and the river, perhaps using spears, nets, or weirs. Analysis of vertebrate faunal remains, results of which are presented herein, rather conclusively demonstrates that Late Prehistoric people exploited big game species more commonly than did their Archaic period predecessors. Floral products must also have comprised a substantial portion of the foods consumed by Choke Canyon\u27s prehistoric inhabitants. Direct evidence of plant food utilization is nonexistent on the sites. However, the very common occurrence of sandstone manes and metates implies heavy reliance on seeds, nuts, or beans. Also, the tremendous amount of burned rock that accumulated in Archaic components at many sites, often found as very carefully constructed hearth features, suggests that baking or roasting activities were extremely common. Roots, tubers, stalks, and other edible plant parts may have been what was being prepared in these facilities. Diagnostic artifacts recovered from prehistoric sites at Choke Canyon during the various phases of archaeological investigation clearly indicate that the general vicinity witnessed aboriginal activity from Paleo-Indian times up through the early Historic period. Evidence of Paleo-Indian people is limited to surface finds along the valley margin and on high, ancient terrace formations down in the river valley. No in situ subsurface Paleo-Indian components have yet been isolated at Choke Canyon. Where previously the earliest subsurface component known at Choke Canyon dated to the Middle Archaic period (ca. 3400 B.C. to 2400 B.C.), the Phase II excavations led to discovery of an Early Archaic component dating to the period from 5000 B.C. xi to 4000 B.C. While recognizable Paleo-Indian, Early Archaic, and Middle Archaic components are relatively scarce, the Late Archaic and Late Prehistoric periods are amply represented in the prehistoric sites at Choke Canyon. Phase II investigations also produced the first clear indication of an aboriginal component containing evidence of contact with Anglo-Europeans in early historic times. The bulk of cultural, paleobotanical, and vertebrate faunal data representing the prehistory of Choke Canyon indicates that floral and faunal communities and the general climatic regime remained essentially unchanged from at least 4000 B.C. up to the period in historic times when certain livestock and land management practices led to a drastic expansion of brush communities and severe erosion of formerly stable land surfaces

Ergonomic risk factors for low back pain in North Carolina crab pot and gill net commercial fishermen

Background The objective of this research was to determine the association between LBP that limited or interrupted fishing work and ergonomic low back stress measured by (1) self-reported task and (2) two ergonomic assessment methods of low back stress. Methods Eligible participants were from a cohort of North Carolina commercial fishermen followed for LBP in regular clinic visits from 1999 to 2001 (n = 177). Work history, including crab pot and gill net fishing task frequency, was evaluated in a telephone questionnaire (n = 105). Ergonomic exposures were measured in previous study of 25 fishermen using two methods. The occurrence rate of LBP that limited or interrupted fishing work since last visit (severe LBP) was evaluated in a generalized Poisson regression model. Results Predictors of severe LBP included fishing with crew members and a previous history of severe LBP. Among crab pot and gill net fishermen (n = 89), running pullers or net reels, sorting catch, and unloading catch were associated with an increased rate of LBP. Percent of time in forces \u3e20 lb while in non-neutral trunk posture, spine compression \u3e3,400 N, and National Institute of Occupational Safety and Health lifting indices \u3e3.0 were associated with LBP. Conclusions Tasks characterized by higher (unloading boat and sorting catch) and lower (running puller or net reel) ergonomic low back stress were associated with the occurrence of severe LBP. History of LBP, addition of crew members, and self-selection out of tasks were likely important contributors to the patterns of low back stress and outcomes we observed. Based on the results of this study, a participatory ergonomic intervention study is currently being conducted to develop tools and equipment to decrease low back stress in commercial crab pot fishing

Early Intervention with Children at Risk of Emotional/Behavioral Disorders: A Critical Examination of Research Methodology and Practices

Children\u27s behavior problems pose challenges to families, schools, and society. The research literature argues that early detection/intervention is the most powerful course of action in ameliorating these problems in children at risk of emotional/behavioral disorders. However, specifying precisely what constitutes a quality program of early intervention is not a simple task. Current conceptualizations suggest that successful early intervention cannot be unidimensional in nature, but must consist of a complex series of interactions and transactions that synergistically serve to nurture and enhance both the development of the child and family. In this paper, we reviewed the accumulated research to learn more about the critical elements of early intervention. Specifically, we examined three major areas addressed in the literature. First, we describe literature search procedures and criteria for study inclusion, along with methods for analyzing these early intervention studies. Second, we examine the conduct of the intervention, including characteristics of study participants, types of interventions, types of measures, age of onset and length of intervention, treatment fidelity, and social validity measures. Finally, we draw upon that review to offer recommendations for future research

Race, Wealth, and Solid Waste Facilities in North Carolina

BackgroundConcern has been expressed in North Carolina that solid waste facilities may be disproportionately located in poor communities and in communities of color, that this represents an environmental injustice, and that solid waste facilities negatively impact the health of host communities.ObjectiveOur goal in this study was to conduct a statewide analysis of the location of solid waste facilities in relation to community race and wealth.MethodsWe used census block groups to obtain racial and economic characteristics, and information on solid waste facilities was abstracted from solid waste facility permit records. We used logistic regression to compute prevalence odds ratios for 2003, and Cox regression to compute hazard ratios of facilities issued permits between 1990 and 2003.ResultsThe adjusted prevalence odds of a solid waste facility was 2.8 times greater in block groups with ≥50% people of color compared with block groups with < 10% people of color, and 1.5 times greater in block groups with median house values < $60,000 compared with block groups with median house values ≥$100,000. Among block groups that did not have a previously permitted solid waste facility, the adjusted hazard of a new permitted facility was 2.7 times higher in block groups with ≥50% people of color compared with block groups with < 10% people of color.ConclusionSolid waste facilities present numerous public health concerns. In North Carolina solid waste facilities are disproportionately located in communities of color and low wealth. In the absence of action to promote environmental justice, the continued need for new facilities could exacerbate this environmental injustice

The effect of chronic quercetin supplementation on bone health in postmenopausal women: A double-blind placebo-controlled investigation

Currently, there is limited research investigating the effects of quercetin on bone turnover and density. Therefore, this study aimed to examine the efficacy of 90-day quercetin supplementation on bone turnover, inflammation, body composition, and physical function in postmenopausal women. Thirty-four healthy postmenopausal women (59.2 ± 7.0 yrs, 80.7 ± 15.6 kg, 29.8 ± 6.1 kg⸱m2) participated in the double-blind placebo-controlled investigation. Participants were randomly assigned to one of two groups: 500 mg of Q or 500 mg of fiber (placebo; PLB). Data collected during the pre-and post-supplementation assessments included: bone turnover (osteocalcin, P1NP, CTX), inflammation markers (IL-6, TNF-alpha, CRP), body composition, dominant handgrip strength, and timed up and go test. Independent samples t-tests were used for between-group comparisons of baseline values and the percent change for each dependent variable. A significant difference in percent change for osteocalcin (Q: 20.5±25.7; PLB: 1.3±17.2; p=0.016; d=0.89), P1NP (Q: 28.9 (6.0–57.3); PLB: 4.6 (-7.6 – 8.5); p=0.030; d=0.64), and CTX (Q: 39.0 (-10.0 – 84.6); PLB: -7.74 (-28.9 – 18.5); p=0.023; d=0.91) was found between Q and PLB, with greater increases in Q. Changes in the inflammation markers IL-6 (Q: -17.6±24.1; PLB: 2.90±31.1; p=0.045; d=0.73) and TNF-alpha (Q: -4.9± (-15.3 – [-3.2]); PLB: 1.9 (-7.8 – 4.0); p=0.021; d=0.90) between the two groups were significant. No significant changes were found between groups for CRP, body composition, and physical function (p\u3e0.05). The data suggest that Q may improve bone health status in postmenopausal women through its ability to decrease pro-inflammatory mediators and increase turnover markers