Trustworthiness in Collaboration: A Simple Hypergame with Relational Attitudes Analysis

Trust is an important factor in negotiation and business collaboration and can be achieved through mutual understanding between characters involved in this social interaction. Only a few research using mathematical modeling treated the behavioral aspect of those characters, both rationally and emotionally. The purpose of this paper is to analyze and discuss the relationship between rational and emotional aspects of mutual understanding in a collaboration. This paper adopted and modified conventional concepts of misperception and psychological phenomena of the characters by using hypergame and attitudes analysis, respectively. First, I defined collaboration in social systems in term of normal form game-theoretical model, and then by using hypergame in which each character has their own internal model, I explained how rational understanding can be achieved. Next, using attitudes analysis, I discussed how important characters’ attitude towards others are and showed that we need also a strong equilibrium of emotional understanding for a collaboration to produce trust as a result. Finally, this paper proposed a new concept of collaborative social systems equilibrium through such rigorous analysis.Keyword: Attitudes, Collaboration, Hypergame, Social Systems, Trust, Trustworthiness

Strategic Decision Making for Family Business's Survivability; Case of CV Karya Agung

Abstract- Most businesses have a common goal, which is to maximize shareholder wealth. The profit earned by the company will surely increase the shareholder wealth. As a service business which rely on government projects, the orders from the government will continue to decrease with the uncertainty about the number and value of projects to be implemented by the government and the emergence of new competitors. For that reasons, business strategy is necessary for the family business like the object of this study, CV Karya Agung to survive in the competition. This research is intended to provide recommendations in the best business strategy  for the business’s survivability and development of the business.This study began in October 2014 until June 2015. Data collection is done by interview periodically with some key staff in the CV. Karya Agung. From the interview, the obtained data is used to perform business strategy formulation and the data about estimation amount of investment and the estimated profit from each alternatives is used to choose which alternatives is the best using decision tree tools. In the end the output of decision tree is tested by sensitivity analysis how sensitive is the chosen alternative.The results from this research is alternative about expanding business area to Malang city by renting the office. Compared with other alternatives in the given limit time of 1-year period, the other formulated alternatives  could not provide more profit than expansion to Malang with renting the office alternatives.In conclusion, researcher provided recommendations for CV Karya Agung to do the expand business operations in Malang area by renting the office in order to obtain more business opportunities and more profits so that their business can survive in the competition. Keywords: Family Business, Decision Making, Business Strategy, Consultant of Construction, Survivabilit

Backlog Reduction in Housing Provision Process using Mixed Approach of DMAIC, SMART and AHP Methodologies

Abstract. To support its oil operation, IEC manages four camps which most of its facilities require significant repair, especially its housing complexes. Vacant houses with good condition only available in very limited numbers and were not enough to fulfill all housing requests. In the same time, recent business environment forced company to reduce operational expenditure in building maintenance. Limited numbers of vacant houses, limited budget for building maintenance and higher number of housing requests have created a long waiting list and high backlogs in housing assignment list. This research objective is to analyze the existing process of housing provision which has high backlogs in housing assignment list and to propose the intervention to improve it. Combination of DMAIC (Define, Measure, Analyze, Improve, Control) and Decision Analysis methodologies will be used to explore and solve the issue. Based on the analysis performed, root causes of this problem are no proper prioritization tools in place, no dedicated personnel to enable the task, and outdated policy. Hence, the proposed solutions to solve the problem are: prioritization tools are developed and improved for housing renovation and housing assignment processes, dedicated person is assigned to manage housing provision process and internal housing policy is revised and updated. As the result, with strong support from Leadership and collaboration between cross-functional team, the backlogs in housing assignment list can be reduced to 0 (zero). However, improvement in housing renovation process is still needed, especially in reducing cycle time in perform renovation task.Keywords: DMAIC, Decision analysis, SMART, AHP, housing provisionAbstrak. Untuk mendukung kegiatan operasinya, IEC mengelola empat kamp yang sebagian besar fasilitasnya membutuhkan perbaikan, terutama kompleks perumahan. Rumah kosong dengan kondisi baik hanya tersedia dalam jumlah yang sangat terbatas dan tidak cukup untuk memenuhi semua permintaan perumahan yang ada. Di saat yang bersamaan, kondisi bisnis saat ini memaksa perusahaan untuk mengurangi biaya operasional untuk pemeliharaan bangunan. Terbatasnya jumlah rumah yang kosong, terbatasnya anggaran untuk pemeliharaan bangunan dan tingginya jumlah permintaan rumah telah menciptakan daftar antrian panjang dan backlog yang tinggi pada daftar penempatan perumahan. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk melakukan analisis pada proses penyediaan perumahan saat ini yang memiliki backlog tinggi dalam daftar penempatan perumahan dan untuk mengusulkan intervensi untuk memperbaikinya. Kombinasi metodologi DMAIC (Define, Measure, Analyze, Improve, Control) dan Analisis Keputusan akan digunakan untuk mengeksplorasi dan memecahkan masalah ini, Berdasarkan analisa yang dilakukan, akar dari masalah ini adalah tidak adanya alat prioritisasi yang layak, tidak adanya personil yang bertugas untuk melakukan pekerjaan tersebut dan kebijakan perusahaan yang tidak diperbarui. Oleh karena itu, solusi yang diusulkan untuk mengatasi masalah ini: alat prioritisasi dikembangkan dan ditingkatkan untuk proses renovasi dan penempatan perumahan, seseorang diberi tugas untuk mengelola proses penyediaan perumahan dan kebijakan internal perumahan direvisi dan diperbarui. Sebagai hasilnya, dengan dukungan kuat dari pimpinan perusahaan dan kolaborasi dari tim lintas fungsi, backlog di daftar penempatan perumahan dapat dikurangi menjadi 0 (nol). Namun, perbaikan proses renovasi perumahan masih diperlukan, terutama dalam mengurangi waktu dalam melakukan tugas renovasi.Kata kunci: DMAIC, analisis keputusan, SMART, AHP, penyediaan perumaha

Choosing Best Alternative Using Decision Analysis to Maximize Revenue in Company X

As a company that moves in retail business specialized in selling daily needs, company X has developed their brand to become top of customers\u27 mindwith 12% rate of sales growth. However, the Board of Directors (BOD) of company X targeting the rate of sales growth should be 20%, therefore they decide to make an expansion to gain the sales rate, also follow the increasing demand, as well as maintain the customer satisfaction.This research focuses on determining the best alternative that can generate the highest revenue for company X, using decision analysis tools (i.e. smart choice), decision tree and sensitivity analysis. This analysis will be presented in step-by-step in order to be able to generate the best alternatives by understanding the consequences, tradeoff, and uncertainties of the alternative

The Antecedents of Slow Fashion Product Purchase Decision Among Youth in Bandung, Jakarta, and Surabaya

The global trend of apparel industry is having positive correlation with Indonesia fashion retail trend. Recently, there has been growing in awareness among Indonesia consumer about environment make slow fashion product become more popular. However, there are lack of empirical evidence about Indonesian consumers’ slow fashion purchase decision and environment-friendly attitudes. This research aim to investigate the influencing factor of slow fashion product purchase decision among Indonesian youth. Based on the result, researcher can determine influencing factor of slow fashion product purchase decision. This research used quantitative approach through questionnaire with total 250 respondents ranging age 18-24 in 3 major cities in Indonesia which is Bandung, Jakarta, and Surabaya. In investigating the influencing factors, researcher gain four hypothesis from literature review. The factor tested in this research are personal environmental norms, past environmental friendly behaviour, green marketing, and peer influence in green context. The result of the study shows only peer influence in green context has significant correlation to slow fashion product purchase decision. This study is important to understand customer behaviour in slow fashion product and help marketer to find right marketing strategy. Keywords: Purchase Decision; Slow Fashion; Indonesian Youth; Green Behavior; Environmental Friendly Attitude

Agent-Based Simulation of School Choice in Bandung, Indonesia: The Emergence of Enrolment Pattern Trough Individual Preferences

This study is motivated by the reality that school choice programs that is currently implemented in Bandung that, always resulting student deficit (lack of student) in some schools. In this study, a mechanism that can describe how the enrollment pattern in a school choice program emerge as a result of individual preferences of the prospective students, is constructed. Using computer simulation, virtual experiments are conducted. In these experiments, the enrollment patterns and the number of student deficit that were resulted by various school choice program configurations are analyzed. Based on the experiment results, modification of the current program that can minimize the number of student deficit can be purposed.Keywords: agent-based simulation, school choice, computer simulatio

Development of Spatial-System Dynamics Model for Food Security Policy in Indonesia: A Generic Sub-Model Simulation

Abstract. The Indonesia has the immense geographic condition and heterogeneous condition, therefore food security issues could not be aggregated nationally, instead, they have to be described per region. In this paper, the region is defined as a province. Food security issues in every region are dynamic, and generated with complex system structure, will be described in the paper as follows. First, in order to have the comprehensive description of food security, we develop a new spatial system dynamics model that combines the concept of space and time. Previous spatial system dynamics methods could only describe the dynamics of the natural/physical system. The new spatial system dynamics proposed in this paper is designed to accommodate human decision for policy intervention. Then, we develop a decision support system, as follow. (1) After comparing characteristics of each province, we can identify the similarity of all province. We call the similarity as the generic model. (2). We propose a new method of spatial system dynamics that can accommodate the immense geographic condition and the heterogeneity. (3) By combining the generic model and the new method we propose a comprehensive model for decision support system in food security policy. Finally, from the experiments with a simulation of the comprehensive model, we could understand that a policy intervention of food security could give impact differently toward each region. Keywords: System dynamics, spatial system dynamics, food security, modeling, policyAbstrak. Indonesia mempunyai kondisi geografis yang membentang sangat luas dan heterogen, oleh karena itu persoalan ketahanan pangan tidak dapat diagregasikan secara nasional, tetapi harus dirinci per wilayah. Di paper ini satu wilayah itu representasi suatu provinsi. Persoalan ketahanan pangan suatu wilayah itu dinamis, dan dimunculkan oleh struktur sistem yang kompleks, yang akan dipaparkan dalam paper ini sebagai berikut ini. Pertama, agar dapat mendeskripsikan ketahanan pangan secara komprehensif, kami mengembangkan suatu model spatial-system dynamics baru yang memadukan konsep ruang dan waktu. Metodologi ini sebelumnya hanya bisa menggambarkan sistem fisik. Spatial-system dynamics baru yang diusulkan di paper ini didisain untuk mengakomodasi pemodelan keputusan manusia untuk intervensi kebijakan. Kemudian, kami membangun suatu sistem pendukung keputusan, sebagai berikut ini. (1) Setelah membandingkan karakteristik tiap provinsi, kita dapat mengidentifikasi kesamaan di antara seluruh provinsi. (2) Kami mengusulkan metode spatial-system dynamics baru yang dapat mengakomodasi kondisi geografi yang membentang sangat luas dan heterogen. (3) Dengan mengkombinasikan model generik dengan metode baru, kami mengajukan gagasan suatu model komprehensif untuk sistem pendukung pembuatan keputusan dalam hal kebijakan ketahanan pangan. Akhirnya, dari hasil simulasi model yang komprehensif kita dapat memahami bahwa suatu intervensi kebijakan pangan dapat berdampak berbeda beda dari satu wilayah dengan wilayah lainnya.Katakunci: System dynamics, spatial system dynamics, ketahanan pangan, pemodelan, kebijaka

Development of Spatial-System Dynamics Model for Food Security Policy in Indonesia: A Generic Sub-Model Simulation

Abstract. The Indonesia has the immense geographic condition and heterogeneous condition, therefore food security issues could not be aggregated nationally, instead, they have to be described per region. In this paper, the region is defined as a province. Food security issues in every region are dynamic, and generated with complex system structure, will be described in the paper as follows. First, in order to have the comprehensive description of food security, we develop a new spatial system dynamics model that combines the concept of space and time. Previous spatial system dynamics methods could only describe the dynamics of the natural/physical system. The new spatial system dynamics proposed in this paper is designed to accommodate human decision for policy intervention. Then, we develop a decision support system, as follow. (1) After comparing characteristics of each province, we can identify the similarity of all province. We call the similarity as the generic model. (2). We propose a new method of spatial system dynamics that can accommodate the immense geographic condition and the heterogeneity. (3) By combining the generic model and the new method we propose a comprehensive model for decision support system in food security policy. Finally, from the experiments with a simulation of the comprehensive model, we could understand that a policy intervention of food security could give impact differently toward each region. Keywords: System dynamics, spatial system dynamics, food security, modeling, policyAbstrak. Indonesia mempunyai kondisi geografis yang membentang sangat luas dan heterogen, oleh karena itu persoalan ketahanan pangan tidak dapat diagregasikan secara nasional, tetapi harus dirinci per wilayah. Di paper ini satu wilayah itu representasi suatu provinsi. Persoalan ketahanan pangan suatu wilayah itu dinamis, dan dimunculkan oleh struktur sistem yang kompleks, yang akan dipaparkan dalam paper ini sebagai berikut ini. Pertama, agar dapat mendeskripsikan ketahanan pangan secara komprehensif, kami mengembangkan suatu model spatial-system dynamics baru yang memadukan konsep ruang dan waktu. Metodologi ini sebelumnya hanya bisa menggambarkan sistem fisik. Spatial-system dynamics baru yang diusulkan di paper ini didisain untuk mengakomodasi pemodelan keputusan manusia untuk intervensi kebijakan. Kemudian, kami membangun suatu sistem pendukung keputusan, sebagai berikut ini. (1) Setelah membandingkan karakteristik tiap provinsi, kita dapat mengidentifikasi kesamaan di antara seluruh provinsi. (2) Kami mengusulkan metode spatial-system dynamics baru yang dapat mengakomodasi kondisi geografi yang membentang sangat luas dan heterogen. (3) Dengan mengkombinasikan model generik dengan metode baru, kami mengajukan gagasan suatu model komprehensif untuk sistem pendukung pembuatan keputusan dalam hal kebijakan ketahanan pangan. Akhirnya, dari hasil simulasi model yang komprehensif kita dapat memahami bahwa suatu intervensi kebijakan pangan dapat berdampak berbeda beda dari satu wilayah dengan wilayah lainnya.Katakunci: System dynamics, spatial system dynamics, ketahanan pangan, pemodelan, kebijaka