Rational expectations and near rational alternatives: How best to form expectations

Learning rules are increasingly being used in macroeconomic models. However one criticism that has been levelled at this assumption is that the choice of variables for inclusion in the learning rule, and the actual specification of the learning rule itself, is arbitrary. In this paper we test how important the particular learning rule specification is by incorporating a battery of learning rules into a large-scale macro model. The model's dynamics are then compared to those from a version of the model simulated under rational expectations (RE). The results indicate that although there are large differences between the RE solution and each of the solutions under learning, differences amongst the learning rule solutions are minor JEL Classification: C53, E43, F33

Some of the Effects of Domestic Sewage Discharged Into Hickman and Jessamine Creeks in Jessamine County, Kentucky

A 6-week study was made in the summer of 1971 as an initial effort to determine the extent of pollution that the three sewage disposal plants in Jessamine County, Kentucky, are contributing to its streams. With the rapid population increase in Lexington and nearby municipalities, this study should furnish a basis of comparison for future investigations. Eighteen collecting stations were established in riffle areas of Hickman and Jessamine Creeks, and coliform bacteria, macro-invertebrate populations, fish populations and chemical water quality of each riffle area were studied. Hickman Creek\u27s flow was augmented by approximately 3,100,000 gallons/day (11,735 -m3/day) from one of the City of Lexington\u27s sewage disposal plants, and Jessamine Creek\u27s flow by 500,000 gallons/day (1,893 m3/day) from the cities of Nicholasville and Wilmore. The Lexington and Wilmore facilities were greatly overloaded. Chemical analyses were directed toward finding out the fluctuations of phosphates, sulfates, and nitrates. Water disappearing through limestone faults posed investigational problems. Hickman Creek showed evidences of pollution for a greater distance downstream than did Jessamine. Diversity of clean water indicator organisms was higher in lower Jessamine than in lower Hickman; this was particularly true for darters (Etheostoma) and stoneflies (Plecoptera). Jessamine Creek was also supporting limited game fishing

Implications of non-marginal budgetary impacts in health technology assessment: a conceptual model

Objectives This paper introduces a framework with which to conceptualise the decision-making process in health technology assessment for new interventions with high budgetary impacts. In such circumstances, the use of a single threshold based on the marginal productivity of the health care system is inappropriate. The implications of this for potential partial implementation, horizontal equity and pharmaceutical pricing are illustrated using this framework. Results Under the condition of perfect divisibility and given an objective of maximising health, a large budgetary impact of a new treatment may imply that optimal implementation is partial rather than full, even at a given incremental cost-effectiveness ratio that would nevertheless mean the decision to accept the treatment in full would not lead to a net reduction in health. In a one-shot price-setting game, this seems to give rise to potential horizontal equity concerns. When the assumption of fixity of the ICER (arising from the assumed exogeneity of the manufacturer's price) is relaxed, it can be shown that the threat of partial implementation may be sufficient to give rise to an ICER at which cost the entire potential population is treated, maximising health at an increased level, and with no contravention of the horizontal equity principle

How to Collect your Water Sample and Interpret the Results for the Irrigation Analytical Package

Irrigation represents a significant portion of the total production cost for crops. Because of this it is important to have your water tested to ensure that it is suitable for the crops you are growing, and to aid in developing management plans that might help alleviate existing issues such as high salt levels or high alkalinity. The Arkansas Water Resources Center (AWRC) in cooperation with the UA Cooperative Extension Service offers several analytical packages to assess the quality of your water resources. This document is intended to provide guidance to farmers on collecting water samples for analysis and understanding the “Irrigation (All Crops) Water Report Form” and “Irrigation (Drip or Trickle) Water Report Form” provided by the AWRC’s Water Quality Laboratory (Lab). The information contained within this fact sheet should be used as general guidance, and the reader is encouraged to seek advice from Extension specialists regarding the interpretation of individual reports and water testing results that may be of concern

AlGaInN laser diode technology for GHz high-speed visible light communication through plastic optical fiber and water

AlGaInN ridge waveguide laser diodes are fabricated to achieve single-mode operation with optical powers up to 100 mW at ∼420  nm∼420  nm for visible free-space, underwater, and plastic optical fiber communication. We report high-frequency operation of AlGaInN laser diodes with data transmission up to 2.5 GHz for free-space and underwater communication and up to 1.38 GHz through 10 m of plastic optical fiber