Optimal Groundwater Extraction under Uncertainty and a Spatial Stock Externality

We introduce a model that incorporates two important elements to estimating welfare gains from groundwater management: stochasticity and a spatial stock externality. We estimate welfare gains resulting from optimal management under uncertainty as well as a gradual stock externality that produces the dynamics of a large aquifer being slowly exhausted. This groundwater model imposes an important aspect of a depletable natural resource without the extreme assumption of complete exhaustion that is necessary in a traditional single cell (bathtub) model of groundwater extraction. Using dynamic programming, we incorporate and compare stochasticity for both an independent and identically distributed as well as a Markov chain process for annual rainfall. We find that the spatial depletion of the aquifer is significant to welfare gains for a parameterization of a section of the Ogallala Aquifer in Kansas, ranging from 2.9% to 3.01%, which is larger than those found previously over the region. Surprisingly, the inclusion of stochasticity in rainfall increases welfare gains only slightly

Are Farmers Made Whole by Trade Aid?

The USDA provided roughly $23.5 billion in Market Facilitation Program payments to compensate farmers for market losses due to retaliatory tariffs imposed by China and other countries. We examine the distribution of these payments across crops, farms, and regions. Payment rates are larger than estimated price impacts of retaliatory tariffs for most commodities—the difference is especially large for cotton and sorghum. Payment rates relative to farmland cash rent or on a per-farm basis are greatest in the South. While payments exceed the tariff-related price impact in the short run, the program may not compensate for long-run losses due to the trade conflict

Crop supply dynamics and the illusion of partial adjustment

We use field-level data to estimate the response of corn and soybean acreage to price shocks. Our sample contains more than eight million observations derived from satellite imagery and includes every field in Iowa, Illinois, and Indiana. We estimate that aggregate crop acreage responds more to price shocks in the short run than in the long run, and we show theoretically how the benefits of crop rotation generate this response pattern. In essence, farmers who change crops due to a price shock have an incentive to switch back to the previous crop to capture the benefits of crop rotation. Our result contradicts the long-held belief that agricultural supply responds gradually to price shocks through partial adjustment. We would not have obtained this result had we used county-level panel data. Standard econometric methods applied to county-level data produce estimates consistent with partial adjustment. We show that this apparent partial adjustment is illusory, and we demonstrate how it arises from the fact that fields in the same county are more similar to each other than to fields in other counties. This result underscores the importance of using models with appropriate micro-foundations and cautions against inferring micro-level rigidities from inertia in aggregate panel data. Our preferred estimate of the own-price long-run elasticity of corn acreage is 0.29 and the cross-price elasticity is -0.22. The corresponding elasticities for soybean acreage are 0.26 and -0.33. Our estimated short-run elasticities are 37 percent larger than their long-run counterparts

The Opportunity Cost of the Conservation Reserve Program: A Kansas Land Example

The effects of the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) on farmland values is investigated using a set of parcel-level data for land sales in Kansas over the period 1998 to 2014. The sales data are used to estimate a hedonic model of land values that allows for the opportunity cost of CRP enrollment to vary across space and time. Factors impacting the opportunity costs include the relative productivity of land, returns to farming, and the time remaining under the CRP contracts. We find that the discount associated with having land under CRP contract averages 7%