108 research outputs found
The Effect of Green Payments on the Diffusion of Conservation Technologies
The benefits from green payments for the adoption of a conservation technology or practice are reduced if the technology would have eventually been adopted regardless of the green payment. This source of additionality is likely a significant concern for some technologies subsidized by EQIP.Environmental Economics and Policy, Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies,
Spatially Explicit Estimates of Crop Rotation Responses
Crop Production/Industries, Environmental Economics and Policy, Land Economics/Use,
Input Use Decisions with Greater Information on Crop Conditions: Implications for Insurance Moral Hazard and the Environment
Emerging precision agriculture technologies allow farms to make input decisions with greater information on crop conditions. This greater information occurs by providing improved predictions of crop yields using remote sensing and crop simulation models and by allowing farms to apply inputs within the growing season when some crop conditions are already realized. We use a stylized model with uncertainty in yield and price to examine how greater information on crop conditions (i.e., a “forecast”) affects input use for insured and uninsured farms. We show that moral hazard decreases—farms apply more inputs—as the forecast accuracy improves when the forecast indicates good yields, and vice versa when the forecast indicates bad yields. In the long run, moral hazard decreases in response to an improvement in forecast accuracy. Even though moral hazard decreases in the long run, indemnity payments are likely to increase in the long run—driven by the increase in moral hazard when the forecast indicates bad crop conditions. We use the results of our model to discuss the potential impact of different technologies and types of inputs on the federal crop insurance program and the environment
Irrigation Decisions in Response to Groundwater Salinity in Kansas
Understanding the interaction between groundwater salinity and irrigation decision making has important implications for groundwater management. Econometrics models were estimated using observed farmer behavior in response to different groundwater salinity levels in a region of Kansas. Estimation results demonstrate that farmers in the face of groundwater salinity change their irrigation decisions on irrigated acreage (i.e., extensive margin), crop choice (i.e., indirect intensive margin), and water application depth (i.e., direct intensive margin). The empirical results indicate an overall decrease in water use due to higher salinity, primarily through a decrease at the extensive margin
Fixed effects estimation of the intensive and extensive margins of irrigation water demand
Irrigation water demand is estimated using field-level panel data from Kansas over 16 years. The cost of pumping varies over time due to changes in energy prices and across space due to differences in the depth to water. Exploiting this variation allows us to estimate the demand elasticity while controlling for field-farmer and year fixed effects. Fixed effects also allow us to
control for land use without an instrument or assumptions about the distribution of errors. Our estimates of water demand are used to calculate the cost of reducing irrigation water use through water pricing, irrigation cessation, and intensity-reduction programs
Additionality from Payments for Environmental Services with Technology Diffusion
Because payments for environmental services (PES) often subsidize practices that offer latent private benefits, there are concerns that PES programs may provide little additional environmental benefits. Previous literature has framed the problem of non-additionality as an adverse selection problem. We develop a model where moral hazard can also arise because some agents delay adoption due to the incentive of potentially receiving a payment in the future. Moral hazard arises when agents have expectations of potential future subsidies, the technology naturally diffuses without a policy, and a subsidy is only available if the agent has not previously adopted the technology. We develop a conceptual model to illustrate the moral hazard incentive and conduct numerical simulations to understand the impact of policy parameters on aggregate outcomes. Numerical simulations illustrate that moral hazard creates a non-monotonic relationship between policy parameters—such as the subsidy and budget levels—and the net change in adoption induced by the program because some agents delay adoption. We also find that the cost-effectiveness of the policy is smaller when the policy is introduced during periods of rapid technology adoption
Fields from Afar: Evidence of Heterogeneity in United States Corn Rotational Response from Remote Sensing Data
We construct estimates of own- and cross-price corn rotation elasticities using a field-level dataset that accounts for over 83% of the US corn-producing area. We allow rotational response to vary by estimating separate models across 115 subsamples that we delineate using Major Land Resource Areas (MLRAs) and soil characteristics. The results show a high degree of rotational response heterogeneity. Across the country, we find that rotational response is elastic in some areas and near zero in others. After aggregating the results to the national level, we find that modeling rotational response without allowing for heterogeneity produces a short-run own-price elasticity of corn planting of around 0.50, which conforms to the latest estimates in the literature. When allowing heterogeneous price sensitivity, our preferred estimate of the rotation elasticity is 0.69. This is evidence that imposing a uniform rotation response could seriously bias aggregate elasticity estimates
Lessons from local governance and collective action efforts to manage irrigation withdrawals in Kansas
This study evaluates four groundwater management plans to increase the understanding of how local governance and collective action can be effectively implemented to manage irrigation withdrawals in Kansas. The results of our analysis demonstrate five key lessons that highlight the challenges of collective action efforts to manage common-pool resources in a developed country setting. First, the four management plans generally follow Ostrom’s design principles for collective action. However, there are important areas—particularly boundaries and allocations definition—where the management plans could be improved to better align with Ostrom’s design principles. Second, a majority of farmers agree that action is needed to reduce the rate of aquifer depletion but management plans have not substantially reduced water use. Third, management plans that allow for voluntary participation have not received more support than those that require mandatory compliance, perhaps due to the classic free-rider problem. Fourth, there is no clear evidence that heterogeneous benefits from management explain support within a management area. Fifth, groundwater users generally perceive that they have an acceptable level of information. Our analysis highlights the significant challenges facing successful collective action efforts to manage water in the USA. and that the efforts are most likely to be successful when they are small-scale, mandatory, and involve users in the formation process
Futures Prices in Supply Analysis: Are Instrumental Variables Necessary?
Citation: Nathan P. Hendricks, Joseph P. Janzen, Aaron Smith; Futures Prices in Supply Analysis: Are Instrumental Variables Necessary?, American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Volume 97, Issue 1, 1 January 2015, Pages 22–39, https://doi.org/10.1093/ajae/aau062Crop yield shocks are partially predictable—high planting-time futures prices have tended to indicate that yield would be below trend. As a result, regressions of total caloric production on futures prices produce estimates of the supply elasticity that are biased downwards by up to 75%. Regressions of the world’s growing area on futures prices have a much smaller bias of about 20% because although yield shocks are partially predictable, this predictability has a relatively small effect on land allocation. We argue that the preferred method for estimating the crop supply elasticity is to use regressions of growing area on futures prices and to include the realized yield shock as a control variable. An alternative method for bias reduction is to use instrumental variables (IVs). We show that the marginal contribution of an IV to bias reduction is small—IVs are not necessary for futures prices in supply analysis
Irrigation offsets wheat yield reductions from warming temperatures
Citation: Tack, J., Barkley, A., & Hendricks, N. (2017). Irrigation offsets wheat yield reductions from warming temperatures. Environmental Research Letters, 12(11), 114027. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa8d27Temperature increases due to climate change are expected to cause substantial reductions in global wheat yields. However, uncertainty remains regarding the potential role for irrigation as an adaptation strategy to offset heat impacts. Here we utilize over 7000 observations spanning eleven Kansas field-trial locations, 180 varieties, and 29 years to show that irrigation significantly reduces the negative impact of warming temperatures on winter wheat yields. Dryland wheat yields are estimated to decrease about eight percent for every one-degree Celsius increase in temperature, yet irrigation completely offsets this negative impact in our sample. As in previous studies, we find that important interactions exist between heat stress and precipitation for dryland production. Here, uniquely, we observe both dryland and irrigated trials side-by-side at the same locations and find that precipitation does not provide the same reduction in heat stress as irrigation. This is likely to be because the timing, intensity, and volume of water applications influence wheat yields, so the ability to irrigate—rather than relying on rainfall alone—has a stronger influence on heat stress. We find evidence of extensive differences of water-deficit stress impacts across varieties. This provides some evidence of the potential for adapting to hotter and drier climate conditions using optimal variety selection. Overall, our results highlight the critical role of water management for future global food security. Water scarcity not only reduces crop yields through water-deficit stress, but also amplifies the negative effects of warming temperatures
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