Extremely low long‐term erosion rates around the Gamburtsev Mountains in interior East Antarctica

The high elevation and rugged relief (>3 km) of the Gamburtsev Subglacial Mountains (GSM) have long been considered enigmatic. Orogenesis normally occurs near plate boundaries, not cratonic interiors, and large‐scale tectonic activity last occurred in East Antarctica during the Pan‐African (480–600 Ma). We sampled detrital apatite from Eocene sands in Prydz Bay at the terminus of the Lambert Graben, which drained a large pre‐glacial basin including the northern Gamburtsev Mountains. Apatite fission‐track and (U‐Th)/He cooling ages constrain bedrock erosion rates throughout the catchment. We double‐dated apatites to resolve individual cooling histories. Erosion was very slow, averaging 0.01–0.02 km/Myr for >250 Myr, supporting the preservation of high elevation in interior East Antarctica since at least the cessation of Permian rifting. Long‐term topographic preservation lends credence to postulated high‐elevation mountain ice caps in East Antarctica since at least the Cretaceous and to the idea that cold‐based glaciation can preserve tectonically inactive topography

Ensemble yield simulations: crop and climate uncertainties, sensitivity to temperature and genotypic adaptation to climate change

Estimates of the response of crops to climate change rarely quantify the uncertainty inherent in the simulation of both climate and crops. We present a crop simulation ensemble for a location in India, perturbing the response of both crop and climate under both baseline (12 720 simulations) and doubled-CO2 (171 720 simulations) climates. Some simulations used parameter values representing genotypic adaptation to mean temperature change. Firstly, observed and simulated yields in the baseline climate were compared. Secondly, the response of yield to changes in mean temperature was examined and compared to that found in the literature. No consistent response to temperature change was found across studies. Thirdly, the relative contribution of uncertainty in crop and climate simulation to the total uncertainty in projected yield changes was examined. In simulations without genotypic adaptation, most of the uncertainty came from the climate model parameters. Comparison with the simulations with genotypic adaptation and with a previous study suggested that the relatively low crop parameter uncertainty derives from the observational constraints on the crop parameters used in this study. Fourthly, the simulations were used, together with an observed dataset and a simple analysis of crop cardinal temperatures and thermal time, to estimate the potential for adaptation using existing cultivars. The results suggest that the germplasm for complete adaptation of groundnut cultivation in western India to a doubled-CO2 environment may not exist. In conjunction with analyses of germplasm and local management practices, results such as this can identify the genetic resources needed to adapt to climate change

Holographic Screening Length in a Hot Plasma of Two Sphere

We study the screening length of a quark-antiquark pair moving in a hot plasma living in two sphere $S^2$ manifold using AdS/CFT correspondence where the background metric is four dimensional Schwarzschild-AdS black hole. The geodesic solution of the string ends at the boundary is given by a stationary motion in the equatorial plane as such the separation length $L$ of quark-antiquark pair is parallel to the angular velocity $\omega$. The screening length and the bound energy are computed numerically using Mathematica. We find that the plots are bounded from below by some functions related to the momentum transfer $P_c$ of the drag force configuration. We compare the result by computing the screening length in the quark-antiquark reference frame where the gravity dual are "Boost-AdS" and Kerr-AdS black holes. Finding relations of the parameters of both black holes, we argue that the relation between mass parameters $M_{Sch}$ of the Schwarzschild-AdS black hole and $M_{Kerr}$ of the Kerr-AdS black hole in high temperature is given by $M_{Kerr}=M_{Sch}(1-a^2l^2)^{3/2}$, where $a$ is the angular momentum parameter.Comment: Major revision: title changed, adding authors, 13 pages, 8 figures, etc. Accepted for publication in European Physical Journal

Polypill for prevention of cardiovascular disease in an Urban Iranian population with special focus on nonalcoholic steatohepatitis: A pragmatic randomized controlled trial within a cohort (PolyIran - Liver) – Study protocol

Background: Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is among the most common causes of mortality in all populations. Nonalcoholic steatohepatitis is a common finding in patients with CVD. Prevention of CVD in individual patients typically requires periodic clinical evaluation, as well as diagnosis and management of risk factors such as hypertension and hyperlipidemia. However, this is resource consuming and hard to implement, especially in developing countries. We designed a study to investigate the effects of a simpler strategy: a fixed-dose combination pill consisting of aspirin, valsartan, atorvastatin and hydrochlorthiazide (PolyPill) in an unselected group of persons aged over 50 years. Design: The PolyIran-Liver study was performed in Gonbad city as an open label pragmatic randomized controlled trial nested within the Golestan Cohort Study. We randomly selected 2,400 cohort study participants aged above 50 years, randomly assigned them to intervention or usual care and invited them to participate in an additional measurement study (if they met the eligibility criteria) to measure liver related outcomes. Those agreeing and randomized to the intervention arm were offered a daily single dose of PolyPill. We will follow participants for 5 years. The primary outcome is major cardiovascular events, secondary outcomes include all-cause mortality and liver related outcomes: liver stiffness and liver enzyme levels. Cardiovascular outcomes and mortality will be determined from the cohort study and liver-related outcomes in those consenting to follow up. Analysis will be by allocated group. Trial Status: Between October and December 2011, 1,320 intervention and 1,080 control participants were invited to participate in the additional measurement study. For all these participants, the major cardiovascular events will be determined using blind assessment of outcomes through the cohort study. In the intervention and control arms, 875 (66%) and 721 (67%) respectively, met the eligibility criteria and agreed to participate in the additional measurement study. Liver related outcomes will be measured in these participants. Of the 1,320 participants randomized to the intervention, 787 (60%) accepted the PolyPill. Conclusion: The PolyIran-liver urban study will provide us with important information on the effectiveness of PolyPill on major cardiovascular events, all-cause mortality and liver related outcomes. (ClinicalTrials.gov ID: NCT01245608). © 2015, Academy of Medical Sciences of I.R. Iran. All rights reserved

Local free-fall temperature of a RN-AdS black hole

We use the global embedding Minkowski space (GEMS) geometries of a (3+1)-dimensional curved Reissner-Nordstr\"om(RN)-AdS black hole spacetime into a (5+2)-dimensional flat spacetime to define a proper local temperature, which remains finite at the event horizon, for freely falling observers outside a static black hole. Our extended results include the known limiting cases of the RN, Schwarzschild--AdS, and Schwarzschild black holes.Comment: 18 pages, 11 figures, version to appear in Int. J. Mod. Phys.

Beyond the veil: Inner horizon instability and holography

We show that scalar perturbations of the eternal, rotating BTZ black hole should lead to an instability of the inner (Cauchy) horizon, preserving strong cosmic censorship. Because of backscattering from the geometry, plane wave modes have a divergent stress tensor at the event horizon, but suitable wavepackets avoid this difficulty, and are dominated at late times by quasinormal behavior. The wavepackets have cuts in the complexified coordinate plane that are controlled by requirements of continuity, single-valuedness and positive energy. Due to a focusing effect, regular wavepackets nevertheless have a divergent stress-energy at the inner horizon, signaling an instability. This instability, which is localized behind the event horizon, is detected holographically as a breakdown in the semiclassical computation of dual CFT expectation values in which the analytic behavior of wavepackets in the complexified coordinate plane plays an integral role. In the dual field theory, this is interpreted as an encoding of physics behind the horizon in the entanglement between otherwise independent CFTs.Comment: 40 pages, LaTeX, 3 eps figures, v2: references adde

Is convalescent plasma futile in COVID-19?:A Bayesian re-analysis of the RECOVERY randomized controlled trial

Background: Randomized trials are generally performed from a frequentist perspective, which can conflate absence of evidence with evidence of absence. The RECOVERY trial evaluated convalescent plasma for patients hospitalized with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and concluded that there was no evidence of an effect. Re-analysis from a Bayesian perspective is warranted. Methods: Outcome data were extracted from the RECOVERY trial by serostatus and time of presentation. A Bayesian re-analysis with a wide variety of priors (vague, optimistic, sceptical, and pessimistic) was performed, calculating the posterior probability for: any benefit, an absolute risk difference of 0.5% (small benefit, number needed to treat 200), and an absolute risk difference of one percentage point (modest benefit, number needed to treat 100). Results: Across all patients, when analysed with a vague prior, the likelihood of any benefit or a modest benefit with convalescent plasma was estimated to be 64% and 18%, respectively. The estimated chance of any benefit was 95% if presenting within 7 days of symptoms, or 17% if presenting after this. In patients without a detectable antibody response at presentation, the chance of any benefit was 85%. However, it was only 20% in patients with a detectable antibody response at presentation. Conclusions: Bayesian re-analysis suggests that convalescent plasma reduces mortality by at least one percentage point among the 39% of patients who present within 7 days of symptoms, and that there is a 67% chance of the same mortality reduction in the 38% who are seronegative at the time of presentation. This is in contrast to the results in people who already have antibodies when they present. This biologically plausible finding bears witness to the advantage of Bayesian analyses over misuse of hypothesis tests to inform decisions

Emergence of patterns in driven and in autonomous spatiotemporal systems

The relationship between a driven extended system and an autonomous spatiotemporal system is investigated in the context of coupled map lattice models. Specifically, a locally coupled map lattice subjected to an external drive is compared to a coupled map system with similar local couplings plus a global interaction. It is shown that, under some conditions, the emergent patterns in both systems are analogous. Based on the knowledge of the dynamical responses of the driven lattice, we present a method that allows the prediction of parameter values for the emergence of ordered spatiotemporal patterns in a class of coupled map systems having local coupling and general forms of global interactions.Comment: 7 pages, 3 figs, submitted to PRE (2002