Financial impacts of a housing order on commercial free range egg layers in response to highly pathogenic avian influenza

Recent annual outbreaks of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) have led to mandatory housing orders on commercial free-range flocks. Indefinite periods of housing, after poultry have had access to range, could have production and financial consequences for free range egg producers. The impact of these housing orders on performance of commercial flocks is seldom explored at a business level, predominantly due to the paucity of commercially sensitive data. The aim of this paper is to assess the financial and production impacts of a housing order on commercial free-range egg layers. We use a unique data set showing weekly performance of layers gathered from 9 UK based farms over the period 2020-2022. These data cover an average of 100,000 laying hens and include two imposed housing orders, in 2020/2021 and in 2021/22. We applied a random intercept linear regression to assess impacts on physical outputs and inputs, bird mortality and the impacts on revenue, feed costs and margin over feed cost. Feed use and feed costs per bird increased during the housing order which is a consequence of increased control over diet intake in housed compared to ranged birds. An increase in revenue was also found, ostensibly due to a higher proportion of large eggs produced, leading to a higher margin over feed cost. Overall, these large commercial poultry sheds were able to mitigate some of the potential adverse economic effects of housing orders. Potential negative impacts may occur dependant on the duration of the housing order and those farms with less control over their input costs

Maximum Yield Fishing and Optimal Fleet Composition. A Stage Structured Model Analysis With an Example From the Norwegian North-East Arctic Cod Fishery

A stage structured fishery model with three stages; recruits, immature fish and mature fish is formulated and utilized to analyse maximum sustainable yield (MSY) and optimal harvesting composition in a fishery with two heterogeneous fleets. The stage structured model developed bundles the age classes found in age structured models into stage classes based on their level of maturity, but also the pattern according to which they are harvested. Two fleets, high sea and coastal vessels, harvest respectively the immature and mature stages. The maximum sustainable yield (MSY) is studied in light of both perfect and imperfect fishing selectivity. In addition, we analyse the biomass loss of a sharing rule where the high sea trawler fleet is granted a certain share of the harvested biomass. The paper provides a theoretical extension to the literature on age structured models, and presents several new analytical results related to stage structured models which are supported by a numerical illustration inspired by the North-East Arctic cod fishery

The Impulse response function (IRF) for a sheep pox outbreak, showing the cumulative percentage change in livestock and feed supply associated with 1% increase in sheep culled.

The Impulse response function (IRF) for a sheep pox outbreak, showing the cumulative percentage change in livestock and feed supply associated with 1% increase in sheep culled.</p

The value of the estimated impulse response function (IRF) in the main affected livestock market (percentage of reduced supply due to 1% of culled or lost animals).

The value of the estimated impulse response function (IRF) in the main affected livestock market (percentage of reduced supply due to 1% of culled or lost animals).</p

Results of the Johansen Test that was used to examine cointegration in the time series data¹.

Results of the Johansen Test that was used to examine cointegration in the time series data1.</p

Indirect costs, in £ million, of a medium size outbreak in the main host livestock market only and all livestock commodity markets altogether (the main host markets, substitute/complement livestock markets, and feed market) for each animal disease.

Indirect costs, in £ million, of a medium size outbreak in the main host livestock market only and all livestock commodity markets altogether (the main host markets, substitute/complement livestock markets, and feed market) for each animal disease.</p