Uncertainty management in regulatory and health technology assessment decision-making on drugs: guidance of the HTAi-DIA Working Group

ObjectivesUncertainty is a fundamental component of decision making regarding access to and pricing and reimbursement of drugs. The context-specific interpretation and mitigation of uncertainty remain major challenges for decision makers. Following the 2021 HTAi Global Policy Forum, a cross-sectoral, interdisciplinary HTAi-DIA Working Group (WG) was initiated to develop guidance to support stakeholder deliberation on the systematic identification and mitigation of uncertainties in the regulatory-HTA interface. MethodsSix online discussions among WG members (Dec 2021-Sep 2022) who examined the output of a scoping review, two literature-based case studies and a survey; application of the initial guidance to a real-world case study; and two international conference panel discussions. ResultsThe WG identified key concepts, clustered into twelve building blocks that were collectively perceived to define uncertainty: "unavailable," "inaccurate," "conflicting," "not understandable," "random variation," "information," "prediction," "impact," "risk," "relevance," "context," and "judgment." These were converted into a checklist to explain and define whether any issue constitutes a decision-relevant uncertainty. A taxonomy of domains in which uncertainty may exist within the regulatory-HTA interface was developed to facilitate categorization. The real-world case study was used to demonstrate how the guidance may facilitate deliberation between stakeholders and where additional guidance development may be needed. ConclusionsThe systematic approach taken for the identification of uncertainties in this guidance has the potential to facilitate understanding of uncertainty and its management across different stakeholders involved in drug development and evaluation. This can improve consistency and transparency throughout decision processes. To further support uncertainty management, linkage to suitable mitigation strategies is necessary

Unmet Medical Need : An Introduction to Definitions and Stakeholder Perceptions

BACKGROUND: Despite increasing informal and formal use of unmet medical need (UMN) in drug development, regulation, and assessment, there is no insight into its definitions in use. This study aims to provide insight into the current definitions in use and to provide a starting point for a multi-stakeholder discussion on alignment. METHODS: A scoping and a gray literature review were performed to locate definitions of UMN in literature and on stakeholder websites. These definitions were categorized and then discussed among the multi-stakeholder author group via semistructured group discussions and open session workshops with a broader stakeholder audience. Issues with the formation of a common definition and mechanisms for use were discussed. RESULTS: The reviews yielded 16 definitions. Differences were evident, but all included 1 or more of the following elements: (adequacy of) available treatments (16 of 16: 100%), disease severity or burden (6 of 16: 38%), and patient population size (1 of 16: 6%). The stakeholder discussions led to a suggestion for a definition including the first 2 items and, depending on context, population size. The discussions also showed that quantification of UMN is highly dependent on the scope and the value framework in which it is used based on different stakeholder preferences and responsibilities. CONCLUSION: We encourage stakeholders that want to promote alignment on the concept of UMN to prospectively discuss the scope in which they want to apply the concept, what elements they find important for consideration in each case, and how they would measure UMN within the broader regulatory or value framework applicable

Unmet Medical Need : An Introduction to Definitions and Stakeholder Perceptions

BACKGROUND: Despite increasing informal and formal use of unmet medical need (UMN) in drug development, regulation, and assessment, there is no insight into its definitions in use. This study aims to provide insight into the current definitions in use and to provide a starting point for a multi-stakeholder discussion on alignment. METHODS: A scoping and a gray literature review were performed to locate definitions of UMN in literature and on stakeholder websites. These definitions were categorized and then discussed among the multi-stakeholder author group via semistructured group discussions and open session workshops with a broader stakeholder audience. Issues with the formation of a common definition and mechanisms for use were discussed. RESULTS: The reviews yielded 16 definitions. Differences were evident, but all included 1 or more of the following elements: (adequacy of) available treatments (16 of 16: 100%), disease severity or burden (6 of 16: 38%), and patient population size (1 of 16: 6%). The stakeholder discussions led to a suggestion for a definition including the first 2 items and, depending on context, population size. The discussions also showed that quantification of UMN is highly dependent on the scope and the value framework in which it is used based on different stakeholder preferences and responsibilities. CONCLUSION: We encourage stakeholders that want to promote alignment on the concept of UMN to prospectively discuss the scope in which they want to apply the concept, what elements they find important for consideration in each case, and how they would measure UMN within the broader regulatory or value framework applicable