An Estimated Small Open Economy New-Keynesian Model of the Australian Economy

This paper estimates a small open economy New-Keynesian model using data from Australia and the US economy with Full Information Maximum Likelihood method. Our estimated US structural parameters are in line with those of Giordani (2004) on Canadian data. For Australian parameters we find that the real exchange rate has little effect on output gap and inflation, whereas the foreign output gap has a significant effect on both of them. Moreover, our results show a prominent role for backwardlooking behaviour for Australian inflation.Open Economy, New Keynesian model, FIML, Australia

THE ENCOUNTERS OF DEVELOPMENT AND ROLE OF HUMAN RESOURCES

The current financial crisis, which has engulfed East Asia since July 1997 and has subsequently spread to Russia and Brazil, is one of the most pressing challenges facing countries and businesses in today's global business environment. Development represents the structural making of the world characterized by the free flow of technology and human resources across national boundaries as well as the spread of Information Technology (IT) and mass media presenting an ever-changing and competitive business environment. Two major limitations are observed in the treatment of the twin issues of the responses to the East Asian economic crisis and the coverage of the literature on Development. While the response to the crisis has focused on macroeconomic aspects, the issue of Development has been addressed predominantly in and with respect to the developed economies of Western Europe, North America and Japan. This paper is an attempt to address these two limitations. Since the human factor is the key in the new era of Development, the primary objective of this paper is to present a conceptual framework for effective management of human resources as a response to the growing interaction of Development and business performance. Three central arguments are made in this paper. (1) That a growing body of evidence converge to suggest that changes taking place in the global business environment often are not accompanied by complementary changes in human resource management practices leading to a situation whereby the failure of some firms is due to the mismanagement of people rather than to problems with technical systems per se. (2) That this is because organizations have achieved relatively low levels effectiveness in implementing Strategic Human Resource Management (SHRM) practices especially in emerging economies of South East Asia and other developing countries like Nigeria that are exposed to the challenges and opportunities of Development. (3) That in order to manage employees for competitive edge in a period of Development, human resource personnel must possess competencies relevant for implementing such strategic HRM policies and practices. Guided by theoretical perspectives such as the firm’s resource-based theory of competitive advantage and empirical evidence, this paper develop propositions draws implications for the strategic management of human resources to prepare organizations for the challenges of Development.  Article visualizations

EFFECT OF WATER-SUPERABSORBENT AND DROUGHT ON SEEDLING ESTABLISHMENT AND GROWTH IN SOME WARM SEASON PLANTS

Drought is one of the most important abiotic stresses in Iran’s agriculture and annually causes many damages to plant productions. This study was designed to determine effect of water-superabsorbent polymer and drought on seedling establishment and growth in some warm season plants (foxtail millet, dill and fenugreek). This experiment was conducted as a pot experiment at Campus of Agriculture and Natural Resources, Razi University. In the pot experiment, effect of water-superabsornbent polymer (0, 0.02, 0.04 and 0.08 grams per kilogram of soil) and drought (favorable and long-term irrigation) on warm season plants were investigated. Results showed that by increasing water-superabsorbent polymer application, seedling fresh weight, seedling dry weight, seedling height, emergence percentage and rate were increased. Drought reduced mentioned traits, but water-superabsorbent was able to reduce drought negative effects partially. Regarding results, for high emergence in foxtail millet, fenugreek and dill, application of 0.08 g of superabsorbent per kilogram of soil is usefull, especially under drought condition

Factors Affecting Goods and Currency Smuggling in the Draft Bill to Combat Goods and Currency Smuggling

Goods and currency smuggling not only hurts government’s supporting objectives but also causes to lose the effects of government’s tariff and non-tariff policies. While the smugglers do not pay the government right, it leads to reducing investment in the industry, reducing the volume of manufacturing activities in the country and finally reducing the employment. Since the world customs, as the most important executives in foreign trade regulations and key ring of international trade supply chain, are the only organizations responsible to evaluate and monitor the movement of goods crossing the borders they play roles in the context of their objectives and assigned tasks. In order to facilitate foreign trade while applying control regulations, measures to harmonize the customs procedures and systems are essential and indispensable. Factors and processes affecting the customs functions, the atmosphere in which the customs work, and finally, the custom’s approach and interaction with these factors and conditions are the issues that form the investigation of operational environment. In a general classification, the causes of smuggling are divided into three economic, political, and cultural - social categories each of them having consequences and solutions to handle. Todays, the phenomenon of smuggling is so important that any government needs to make decisions for the effective monitoring of this phenomenon. Accordingly, some certain rules must be legislated in order to reduce any risk in this field and stop smugglers. In 1927 and perhaps earlier, in this field some rules have been legislated in Iran but always met the shortcomings. In order to overcome these shortcomings, the rules to combat goods and currency smuggling were legislated in 2013 and approved by Guardian Council. It is hoped to take serious steps to deal with smuggling by the rules

The Effects of Exchange Rate Volatility on Economic Growth in Iran

This paper investigates the effects of exchange rate volatilities on economic growth of Iran over the flexible exchange rate regime period (1988:Q1 2007:Q4). We use generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH) family models to generate time varying conditional variance of exchange rate as a standard measure of exchange rate volatility. We also use the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds test approach to level relationship as proposed by Pesaran et al. (2001). Our results show a significant relationship between Iranian growth volume and real exchange rate volatility. The long run results of ARDL model show that the effect of exchange rate volatility on economic growth is negative. ECM estimate shows that approximately 22% of disequilibria from the previous period's shocks converge back to the long run equilibrium in the current period

Simultaneous Impact of Deep Habits Consumption and Price Stickiness on the Transmission of Monetary and Fiscal Shocks using the MS-DSGE Model

The role of deep hapbit in countercyclical behavior of mark-up and its impact on the transmission of monetary and fiscal shocks have already been studied, but its strength in the presence of Philips curve with price stickiness is not clear. The purpose of this study is to develop a New Keynesian Philips Curve (NKPC) following Cristiano et al. (2005), to investigate the simultaneous effect of price stickiness and deep habits on monetary and fiscal shock transmission using Markov- switching stochastic dynamic general equilibrium (MS-DSGE) model for the Iranian economy. The results of impulse-response functions show reducing markup for one period due to deep habits and then increasing markup and inflation after a period due to a stronger role of price stickiness. Moreover, although the negative effect of wealth due to government spending is compensated by deep habits consumption and thus makes consumption increase, it is weak in comparison to the strength of expected inflation, and therefore, inflation increases eventually. Overall, the results of this study indicate that deep habits cannot be a dominant factor in the transmission of monetary and fiscal shocks, but according to the obtained impulse response functions, it can be the strong reason to delay increasing inflation. Also, deep habits consumption can be a good reason for increasing consumption and compensating of the negative effect of wealth due to fiscal shock

بررسی تأثیر نااطمینانی قیمت نفت خام بر رشد بخش صنعت و معدن در ایران کاربردی از مدل‌های تبدیل مارکف

This paper investigates the impact of the crude oil price uncertainty on the growth of Industry and Mine sector in Iran over the period of 1367:1 to 1389:4. We applied Exponential Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (EGARCH) Model to generate the crude oil price uncertainty indicator, and MSIA(3)-ARX(4,2) Model to examine the effects of this uncertainty on the Industry and Mine sector growth. Our Results show that crude oil price uncertainty in different regimes of industry and mine sector (recession, average growth and expansion) have a negative impact on this sector. Also, it is shown that under the influence of crude oil price uncertainty, duration of average growth is more than recession regime and it is more than expansion regime, respectively. In general, in the case of uncertainty in the crude oil price, Industry and Mine sector growth is disposed to average growth and persistence of this situation. It is suggested to control the effects of oil price uncertainty on economy by changing macroeconomic policies, creating a saving found for oil revenues, and applying rules for withdrawals from the fund in average growth periods, especially when there is a continuous increase in crude oil price. So oil price increases will be eliminated as a factor of recession and lower growth, and then the average growth regime in Industry and Mine sector will pass to expansion regime with the probability of 15% - calculated in this study

عوامل مؤثر بر انتقال نوسانات قیمت نفت خام به رشد بخش صنعت و معدن در ایران رهیافتی از مدل‌های تبدیل مارکف

This paper investigates factors of contagion between crude oil price and growth of Industry and Mine sector in Iran during 1367:1- 1389:4. For this reason, the dynamic correlation between crude oil price and growth of Industry and Mine sector has been analyzed by means of the DCC Model. Then, in order to explain the changes in dynamic correlation between oil price and Industry and Mine sector growth, we estimated MSIXH(2)-ARX(0,0) model. Our results show that crude oil price have a positive impact on Industry and Mine sector growth, which is explained by real import, real government consumption expenditure, Inflation, real effective exchange rate and oil price that can be controled. These results suggest that in order to increase Industry and Mine sector growth, increasing import of intermediate goods along with structural policies for increasing the compatitiveness of domestic products and non-oil export promotion policies, reduction in government consumption expenditure and implementing policies to stabilize the general price level and government consumption expenditure against changes in oil prices is necessary

بررسی تأثیر نااطمینانی قیمت نفت خام بر رشد بخش صنعت و معدن در ایران کاربردی از مدل‌های تبدیل مارکف

This paper investigates the impact of the crude oil price uncertainty on the growth of Industry and Mine sector in Iran over the period of 1367:1 to 1389:4. We applied Exponential Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (EGARCH) Model to generate the crude oil price uncertainty indicator, and MSIA(3)-ARX(4,2) Model to examine the effects of this uncertainty on the Industry and Mine sector growth. Our Results show that crude oil price uncertainty in different regimes of industry and mine sector (recession, average growth and expansion) have a negative impact on this sector. Also, it is shown that under the influence of crude oil price uncertainty, duration of average growth is more than recession regime and it is more than expansion regime, respectively. In general, in the case of uncertainty in the crude oil price, Industry and Mine sector growth is disposed to average growth and persistence of this situation. It is suggested to control the effects of oil price uncertainty on economy by changing macroeconomic policies, creating a saving found for oil revenues, and applying rules for withdrawals from the fund in average growth periods, especially when there is a continuous increase in crude oil price. So oil price increases will be eliminated as a factor of recession and lower growth, and then the average growth regime in Industry and Mine sector will pass to expansion regime with the probability of 15% - calculated in this study