Transmission Heterogeneity and Control Strategies for Infectious Disease Emergence

The control of emergence and spread of infectious diseases depends critically on the details of the genetic makeup of pathogens and hosts, their immunological, behavioral and ecological traits, and the pattern of temporal and spatial contacts among the age/stage-classes of susceptible and infectious host individuals.We show that failing to acknowledge the existence of heterogeneities in the transmission rate among age/stage-classes can make traditional eradication and control strategies ineffective, and in some cases, policies aimed at controlling pathogen emergence can even increase disease incidence in the host. When control strategies target for reduction in numbers those subsets of the population that effectively limit the production of new susceptible individuals, then control can produce a flush of new susceptibles entering the population. The availability of a new cohort of susceptibles may actually increase disease incidence. We illustrate these general points using Classical Swine Fever as a reference disease.Negative effects of culling are robust to alternative formulations of epidemiological processes and underline the importance of better assessing transmission structure in the design of wildlife disease control strategies

Mean-field models for non-Markovian epidemics on networks

This paper introduces a novel extension of the edge-based compartmental model to epidemics where the transmission and recovery processes are driven by general independent probability distributions. Edge-based compartmental modelling is just one of many different approaches used to model the spread of an infectious disease on a network; the major result of this paper is the rigorous proof that the edge-based compartmental model and the message passing models are equivalent for general independent transmission and recovery processes. This implies that the new model is exact on the ensemble of configuration model networks of infinite size. For the case of Markovian transmission themessage passing model is re-parametrised into a pairwise-like model which is then used to derive many well-known pairwise models for regular networks, or when the infectious period is exponentially distributed or is of a fixed length

Functional expression of complement factor I following AAV-mediated gene delivery in the retina of mice and human cells.

Funder: NIHR Oxford Biomedical Research CentreDry age-related macular degeneration (AMD) is characterised by loss of central vision and currently has no approved medical treatment. Dysregulation of the complement system is thought to play an important role in disease pathology and supplementation of Complement Factor I (CFI), a key regulator of the complement system, has the potential to provide a treatment option for AMD. In this study, we demonstrate the generation of AAV constructs carrying the human CFI sequence and expression of CFI in cell lines and in the retina of C57BL/6 J mice. Four codon optimised constructs were compared to the most common human CFI sequence. All constructs expressed CFI protein; however, most codon optimised sequences resulted in significantly reduced CFI secretion compared to the non-optimised CFI sequence. In vivo expression analysis showed that CFI was predominantly expressed in the RPE and photoreceptors. Secreted protein in vitreous humour was demonstrated to be functionally active. The findings presented here have led to the formulation of an AAV-vectored gene therapy product currently being tested in a first-in-human clinical trial in subjects with geographic atrophy secondary to dry AMD (NCT03846193)

Key questions for modelling COVID-19 exit strategies

This is the final version. Available on open access from the Royal Society via the DOI in this recordCombinations of intense non-pharmaceutical interventions ('lockdowns') were introduced in countries worldwide to reduce SARS-CoV-2 transmission. Many governments have begun to implement lockdown exit strategies that allow restrictions to be relaxed while attempting to control the risk of a surge in cases. Mathematical modelling has played a central role in guiding interventions, but the challenge of designing optimal exit strategies in the face of ongoing transmission is unprecedented. Here, we report discussions from the Isaac Newton Institute 'Models for an exit strategy' workshop (11-15 May 2020). A diverse community of modellers who are providing evidence to governments worldwide were asked to identify the main questions that, if answered, will allow for more accurate predictions of the effects of different exit strategies. Based on these questions, we propose a roadmap to facilitate the development of reliable models to guide exit strategies. The roadmap requires a global collaborative effort from the scientific community and policy-makers, and is made up of three parts: i) improve estimation of key epidemiological parameters; ii) understand sources of heterogeneity in populations; iii) focus on requirements for data collection, particularly in Low-to-Middle-Income countries. This will provide important information for planning exit strategies that balance socio-economic benefits with public health.Alan Turing InstituteEPSR

Key questions for modelling COVID-19 exit strategies

This is the final version. Available on open access from the Royal Society via the DOI in this recordCombinations of intense non-pharmaceutical interventions ('lockdowns') were introduced in countries worldwide to reduce SARS-CoV-2 transmission. Many governments have begun to implement lockdown exit strategies that allow restrictions to be relaxed while attempting to control the risk of a surge in cases. Mathematical modelling has played a central role in guiding interventions, but the challenge of designing optimal exit strategies in the face of ongoing transmission is unprecedented. Here, we report discussions from the Isaac Newton Institute 'Models for an exit strategy' workshop (11-15 May 2020). A diverse community of modellers who are providing evidence to governments worldwide were asked to identify the main questions that, if answered, will allow for more accurate predictions of the effects of different exit strategies. Based on these questions, we propose a roadmap to facilitate the development of reliable models to guide exit strategies. The roadmap requires a global collaborative effort from the scientific community and policy-makers, and is made up of three parts: i) improve estimation of key epidemiological parameters; ii) understand sources of heterogeneity in populations; iii) focus on requirements for data collection, particularly in Low-to-Middle-Income countries. This will provide important information for planning exit strategies that balance socio-economic benefits with public health.Alan Turing InstituteEPSR

Metabolomics and Age-Related Macular Degeneration

Age-related macular degeneration (AMD) leads to irreversible visual loss, therefore, early intervention is desirable, but due to its multifactorial nature, diagnosis of early disease might be challenging. Identification of early markers for disease development and progression is key for disease diagnosis. Suitable biomarkers can potentially provide opportunities for clinical intervention at a stage of the disease when irreversible changes are yet to take place. One of the most metabolically active tissues in the human body is the retina, making the use of hypothesis-free techniques, like metabolomics, to measure molecular changes in AMD appealing. Indeed, there is increasing evidence that metabolic dysfunction has an important role in the development and progression of AMD. Therefore, metabolomics appears to be an appropriate platform to investigate disease-associated biomarkers. In this review, we explored what is known about metabolic changes in the retina, in conjunction with the emerging literature in AMD metabolomics research. Methods for metabolic biomarker identification in the eye have also been discussed, including the use of tears, vitreous, and aqueous humor, as well as imaging methods, like fluorescence lifetime imaging, that could be translated into a clinical diagnostic tool with molecular level resolution