Rules of thumb for conservation of metapopulations based on a stochastic winking-patch model

From a theoretical viewpoint, nature management basically has two options to prolong metapopulation persistence: decreasing local extinction probabilities and increasing colonization probabilities. This article focuses on those options with a stochastic, single-species metapopulation model. We found that for most combinations of local extinction probabilities and colonization probabilities, decreasing the former increases metapopulation extinction time more than does increasing the latter by the same amount. Only for relatively low colonization probabilities is an effort to increase these probabilities more beneficial, but even then, decreasing extinction probabilities does not seem much less effective. Furthermore, we found the following rules of thumb. First, if one focuses on extinction, one should preferably decrease the lowest local extinction probability. Only if the extinction probabilities are (almost) equal should one prioritize decreases in the local extinction probability of the patch with the best direct connections to and from other patches. Second, if one focuses on colonization, one should preferably increase the colonization probability between the patches with the lowest local extinction probability. Only if the local extinction probabilities are (almost) equal should one instead prioritize increases in the highest colonization probability (unless extinction probabilities and colonization probabilities are very low). The rules of thumb have an important common denominator: the local extinction process has a greater bearing on metapopulation extinction time than colonization

Ecological impact of changes in intrinsic growth rates of species at different trophic levels

Decreased and increased intrinsic growth rate and abundance of a single species can severely and negatively impact other species in the same food web. Here we compare the wider system effects of decreased and increased intrinsic growth rates of species occupying different trophic levels. Specifically, we derive the change in growth rate of a single (focal) species necessary to cause a 90% reduction in the abundance - a quasi-extinction - of another species in model communities. We find that even relatively small changes, negative as well as positive, in the growth rate of the focal species can cause quasi-extinctions of others. Furthermore, the magnitude of change needed to cause a quasi-extinction depends on the trophic level of the perturbed species. The potential ecosystem impact of such 'negative' and 'positive' changes is largely unknown. We argue that such a targeted decrease or increase could be induced by human interference, such as hunting or harvesting, but also by an outbreak or fade-out of an infectious disease. As ecosystems maintain many and diverse infectious agents, these results suggest that these agents may play an important role in the structure and balance of ecosystems

The Effectiveness of Contact Tracing in Emerging Epidemics

BACKGROUND: Contact tracing plays an important role in the control of emerging infectious diseases, but little is known yet about its effectiveness. Here we deduce from a generic mathematical model how effectiveness of tracing relates to various aspects of time, such as the course of individual infectivity, the (variability in) time between infection and symptom-based detection, and delays in the tracing process. In addition, the possibility of iteratively tracing of yet asymptomatic infecteds is considered. With these insights we explain why contact tracing was and will be effective for control of smallpox and SARS, only partially effective for foot-and-mouth disease, and likely not effective for influenza. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We investigate contact tracing in a model of an emerging epidemic that is flexible enough to use for most infections. We consider isolation of symptomatic infecteds as the basic scenario, and express effectiveness as the proportion of contacts that need to be traced for a reproduction ratio smaller than 1. We obtain general results for special cases, which are interpreted with respect to the likely success of tracing for influenza, smallpox, SARS, and foot-and-mouth disease epidemics. CONCLUSIONS: We conclude that (1) there is no general predictive formula for the proportion to be traced as there is for the proportion to be vaccinated; (2) variability in time to detection is favourable for effective tracing; (3) tracing effectiveness need not be sensitive to the duration of the latent period and tracing delays; (4) iterative tracing primarily improves effectiveness when single-step tracing is on the brink of being effective

Нейтрализация ономастической семантики как фактор поэтики: об одном собственном имени в рок-тексте Б. Гребенщикова

Исследуется мотивированность поэтонима Аделаида в тексте песни Б. Гребенщикова. Данное имя, являющееся ключевым словом текста, мотивировано на различных текстовых уровнях. Выдвижение собственного имени, производимое на фонетическом и метрическом уровнях и сопровождаемое целенаправленной нейтрализацией его ономастической семантики, способствует превращению данного поэтонима в символ и делает его ключевым словом данного текста.На матеріалі имені Аделаіда у статті були розглянуті лінгвістичні механізми символічногоформування значення. Його символічне значення формується засобами фонетичного та метричного наголоса та нейтралізації деяких онімічних семантичних компонентів.The linguistic mechanisms of symbolic meaning's forming are being studied on the material of name Adelaide. Its symbolic meaning forms by means of phonetic and metrical emphasis and neutralization some of onym's semantic components