PASSENGER MOBILITY AND CLIMATE CONSTRAINTS: ANALYSING ADAPTIVE STRATEGIES

Today, numerous works conclude that transport seems to be completely coupled to economic growth. Therefore, as a direct consequence of economic development, transport sits today as one of the major final energy consumers and one of the most important sources of carbon dioxide emissions. Furthermore, in the absence of major technological change, this unsustainable situation will most undoubtedly get worse in the future. In this paper we analyze what different types of public policies aiming at sharp reductions in GHG emissions imply on passenger transport and how they can be linked to new behavior patterns affecting time use and consumption. For this, we use the TILT (Transport Issues in the Long Term) model's core microeconomic choice model IT-UP (Integrated Tools for Utility-based Planning). Through this analysis, we explain the interest of adaptive strategies for GHG mitigation.Greenhouse gas, long term, scenario, transport, sustainable development.

Planning for resilience in urban transport.

This paper develops the idea of taking into account the systemic effects of public policies for sustainable transport in long-term scenarios. A comprehensive assessment of these effects is a particularly important factor in identifying potential unbalancing elements and planning for resilience to the effects of mitigation policies in view of increasing acceptance to different measures on which GHG reductions depend.Modelling, Greenhouse gas, Coupling, Scenarios, 2050 horizon, mitigation, adaptation, multimodality, decoupling.

SUSTAINABLE TRANSPORT IN FRANCE: IS A 75% REDUCTION IN CO2 EMISSIONS ATTAINABLE?

Today, numerous works conclude that transport seems to be completely coupled to economic and export/import growth. Therefore, as a direct consequence of economic development transport sits today as one of the major final energy consumers and one of the most important sources of carbon dioxide emissions. Consequently, this situation of continuous increase in transport clearly poses an environmental problem. In this paper we propose to asses a certain number of possible solutions through scenario building in a backcasting manner using the TILT (Transport Issues in the Long Term) model. In particular, we evaluate three different scenarios that address how technology and different public policies can contribute towards a sharp reduction in CO2 emissions. Furthermore, we propose an estimation of infrastructure investment needs as well as insight on how transport budgets (time and monetary) could evolve in each of the three scenarios presented: • Pegasus - promoting strict technology standards • Chronos - promoting green multimodality • Hestia - promoting transport-GDP growth decoupling. Each scenario allows a quick comprehension of the types of results that can be obtained through different policy mixes. In sum, realistic technological hypothesis show that a 50% reduction in emissions, from the 2000 level, is a clear possibility, and that the remaining 25 % reduction in emissions is possible through different types of policy mixes.Greenhouse gas, long-term, scenario, transport, sustainable development.

Facteur 4 et mobilité des personnes et des marchandises

Afin de limiter les impacts du changement climatique sur la planète, les experts du GIEC préconisent une division par deux des émissions mondiales de gaz à effet de serre à l'horizon 2050. Cet objectif impose une division par quatre (i.e. facteur 4) des émissions de gaz à effet de serre des pays industrialisés comme la France. Le secteur des transports peut-il se plier à cette exigence ?A l'aide du modèle TILT (Transport Issues in the Long Term), centré sur les relations macroéconomiques entre croissance économique, technologies, mobilité et émissions de C02, ce papier recherche les conditions à réunir pour que soit atteint, en France, le « facteur 4 ». Si les progrès techniques annoncés par les ingénieurs sont au rendez-vous, nous pouvons atteindre un facteur 2. L'autre moitié du chemin doit donc être réalisée par une modification des comportements des individus et des entreprises. Trois familles de scénarios sont proposées pour en illustrer le contenu de ces évolutions qui, pour certaines, constituent de véritables bouleversements.Changement climatique; émission de CO2; facteur 4; transport; mobilité des personnes; mobilité des marchandises; backcasting

La voie étroite du « facteur 4 » dans le secteur des transports : quelles politiques publiques, pour quelles mobilités ?

Afin de limiter les impacts du changement climatique sur la planète, les experts du Groupe Intergouvernemental d'experts sur l'Evolution du Climat (GIEC) préconisent une division par deux des émissions mondiales de gaz à effet de serre à l'horizon 2050. Cet objectif impose une division par quatre (i.e. facteur 4) des émissions de gaz à effet de serre des pays industrialisés comme la France. Le secteur des transports peut-il se plier à cette exigence ? A l'aide du modèle TILT (Transport Issues in the Long Term), centré sur les relations macroéconomiques et microéconomiques du système de transport, ce papier recherche les conditions à réunir pour que soit atteint, en France, le « facteur 4 ». Si les progrès techniques annoncés par les ingénieurs sont au rendez-vous, nous pouvons atteindre un facteur 2. L'autre moitié du chemin doit donc être réalisée par une modification des comportements des individus et des entreprises. Trois familles de scénarios sont proposées pour en illustrer le contenu de ces évolutions. Elles montrent que les estimations de trafic et d'émissions ne disent pas tout. Pour donner un contenu concret aux scénarios, il est nécessaire de cerner précisément les politiques publiques capables de conduire aux inflexions souhaitées et les changements de comportements qu'elles appellent.Modélisation, Facteur 4, Gaz à effet de serre, Couplage, Scénarios, Horizon 2050

Au-delà des politiques de mitigation dans les transports : identification des potentiels déséquilibres systémiques et des stratégies favorisant la résilience.

Ce papier développe l'idée de la prise en compte des effets systémiques des politiques publiques de mitigation dans la planification des scénarios de transport soutenable à long terme. La prise en compte de ces effets apparaît comme particulièrement importante afin d'identifier les potentiels éléments de déséquilibre et de construire des stratégies d'adaptation aux politiques de mitigation dans l'objectif d'augmenter l'acceptabilité d'un certain nombre de mesures dont la réduction des gaz à effet de serre dépend.Modélisation, Facteur 4, Gaz à effet de serre, Couplage, Scénarios, Horizon 2050, mitigation, adaptation, multimodalité, découplage.

Comment satisfaire les objectifs internationaux de la France en termes d'émissions de gaz à effet de serre et de pollution transfrontières ? Programme de recherche consacré à la construction de scénarios de mobilité durable. Rapport final

Cette recherche vise à construire des scénarios sur les trafics et les émissions de C02 qui, à la fois, respectent l'objectif du facteur 4, et souscrivent à des conditions générales de soutenabilité sous l'angle économique, social et environnemental en précisant de quelle façon on obtient les différents résultats (contexte macroéconomique, organisation de la production et de la distribution, état des technologies, évolution des modes de vie, contenu des politiques publiques). Ces scénarios concernent les transports en France métropolitaine, mais en les inscrivant dans les flux internationaux de voyageurs et de marchandises.France ; diminution des émissions de gaz à effet de serre ; politiques publiques ; facteur 4 ; scénarios de mobilité durable

Is the Concept of a Green Economy a Useful Way of Framing Policy Discussions and Policymaking to Promote Sustainable Development?

In this article, the authors discuss the use of green economy to promote sustainable development. Research and Partnerships Unit Head Sheng Fulai states that sustainable development is composed of economic, social and environmental development. Furthermore, it features Research and Partnerships associate Gary Flomenhoft who believes that green economy is useful when it deals with factors such as distribution of wealth and throughput of materials and energy

Inside the Outbreak of the 2009 Influenza A (H1N1)v Virus in Mexico

Influenza viruses pose a threat to human health because of their potential to cause global disease. Between mid March and mid April a pandemic influenza A virus emerged in Mexico. This report details 202 cases of infection of humans with the 2009 influenza A virus (H1N1)v which occurred in Mexico City as well as the spread of the virus throughout the entire country.From May 1st to May 5th nasopharyngeal swabs, derived from 751 patients, were collected at 220 outpatient clinics and 28 hospitals distributed throughout Mexico City. Analysis of samples using real time RT-PCR revealed that 202 patients out of the 751 subjects (26.9%) were confirmed to be infected with the new virus. All confirmed cases of human infection with the strain influenza (H1N1)v suffered respiratory symptoms. The greatest number of confirmed cases during the outbreak of the 2009 influenza A (H1N1)v were seen in neighbourhoods on the northeast side of Mexico City including Iztapalapa, Gustavo A. Madero, Iztacalco, and Tlahuac which are the most populated areas in Mexico City. Using these data, together with data reported by the Mexican Secretariat of Health (MSH) to date, we plot the course of influenza (H1N1)v activity throughout Mexico.Our data, which is backed up by MSH data, show that the greatest numbers of the 2009 influenza A (H1N1) cases were seen in the most populated areas. We speculate on conditions in Mexico which may have sparked this flu pandemic, the first in 41 years. We accept the hypothesis that high population density and a mass gathering which took in Iztapalapa contributed to the rapid spread of the disease which developed in three peaks of activity throughout the Country

Predictors of Loss of Functional Independence in Parkinson’s Disease: Results from the COPPADIS Cohort at 2-Year Follow-Up and Comparison with a Control Group

COPPADIS Study Group.[Background and objective] The aim of this study was to compare the progression of independence in activities of daily living (ADL) in Parkinson’s disease (PD) patients versus a control group, as well as to identify predictors of disability progression and functional dependency (FD).[Patients and Methods] PD patients and control subjects, who were recruited from 35 centers of Spain from the COPPADIS cohort between January 2016 and November 2017 (V0), were included. Patients and subjects were then evaluated again at the 2-year follow-up (V2). Disability was assessed with the Schwab & England Activities of Daily Living Scale (S&E-ADLS) at V0 and V2. FD was defined as an S&E-ADLS score less than 80%.[Results] In the PD group, a significant decrease in the S&E-ADLS score from V0 to V2 (N = 507; from 88.58 ± 10.19 to 84.26 ± 13.38; p < 0.0001; Cohen’s effect size = −0.519) was observed but not in controls (N = 124; from 98.87 ± 6.52 to 99.52 ± 2.15; p = 0.238). When only patients considered functional independent at baseline were included, 55 out of 463 (11.9%) converted to functional dependent at V2. To be a female (OR = 2.908; p = 0.009), have longer disease duration (OR = 1.152; p = 0.002), have a non-tremoric motor phenotype at baseline (OR = 3.574; p = 0.004), have a higher score at baseline in FOGQ (OR = 1.244; p < 0.0001) and BDI-II (OR = 1.080; p = 0.008), have a lower score at baseline in PD-CRS (OR = 0.963; p = 0.008), and have a greater increase in the score from V0 to V2 in UPDRS-IV (OR = 1.168; p = 0.0.29), FOGQ (OR = 1.348; p < 0.0001) and VAFS-Mental (OR = 1.177; p = 0.013) (adjusted R-squared 0.52; Hosmer and Lemeshow test = 0.94) were all found to be independent predictors of FD at V2.[Conclusions] In conclusion, autonomy for ADL worsens in PD patients compared to controls. Cognitive impairment, gait problems, fatigue, depressive symptoms, more advanced disease, and a non-tremor phenotype are independent predictors of FD in the short-term.Fundación Curemos el Parkinson (www.curemoselparkinson.org).Peer reviewe