Prediction of Critical Illness During Out-of-Hospital Emergency Care

CONTEXT: Early identification of nontrauma patients in need of critical care services in the emergency setting may improve triage decisions and facilitate regionalization of critical care. OBJECTIVES: To determine the out-of-hospital clinical predictors of critical illness and to characterize the performance of a simple score for out-of-hospital prediction of development of critical illness during hospitalization. DESIGN AND SETTING: Population-based cohort study of an emergency medical services (EMS) system in greater King County, Washington (excluding metropolitan Seattle), that transports to 16 receiving facilities. PATIENTS: Nontrauma, non-cardiac arrest adult patients transported to a hospital by King County EMS from 2002 through 2006. Eligible records with complete data (N = 144,913) were linked to hospital discharge data and randomly split into development (n = 87,266 [60%]) and validation (n = 57,647 [40%]) cohorts. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Development of critical illness, defined as severe sepsis, delivery of mechanical ventilation, or death during hospitalization. RESULTS: Critical illness occurred during hospitalization in 5% of the development (n = 4835) and validation (n = 3121) cohorts. Multivariable predictors of critical illness included older age, lower systolic blood pressure, abnormal respiratory rate, lower Glasgow Coma Scale score, lower pulse oximetry, and nursing home residence during out-of-hospital care (P < .01 for all). When applying a summary critical illness prediction score to the validation cohort (range, 0-8), the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.77 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.76-0.78), with satisfactory calibration slope (1.0). Using a score threshold of 4 or higher, sensitivity was 0.22 (95% CI, 0.20-0.23), specificity was 0.98 (95% CI, 0.98-0.98), positive likelihood ratio was 9.8 (95% CI, 8.9-10.6), and negative likelihood ratio was 0.80 (95% CI, 0.79- 0.82). A threshold of 1 or greater for critical illness improved sensitivity (0.98; 95% CI, 0.97-0.98) but reduced specificity (0.17; 95% CI, 0.17-0.17). CONCLUSIONS: In a population-based cohort, the score on a prediction rule using out-of-hospital factors was significantly associated with the development of critical illness during hospitalization. This score requires external validation in an independent populationPeer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/85143/1/Seymour - JAMA-2010-747-54.pdf11

Modifiable predictors of ventricular ectopy in the community

Background Premature ventricular contractions (PVCs) predict heart failure and death. Data regarding modifiable risk factors for PVCs are scarce. Methods and Results We studied 1424 Cardiovascular Health Study participants randomly assigned to 24-hour Holter monitoring. Demographics, comorbidities, habits, and echocardiographic measurements were examined as predictors of PVC frequency and, among 845 participants, change in PVC frequency 5 years later. Participants exhibited a median of 0.6 (interquartile range, 0.1-7.1) PVCs per hour. Of the more directly modifiable characteristics and after multivariable adjustment, every SD increase in systolic blood pressure was associated with 9% more PVCs (95% confidence interval [CI], 2%-17%; P=0.01), regularly performing no or low-intensity exercise compared with more physical activity was associated with ≈15% more PVCs (95% CI, 3-25%; P=0.02), and those with a history of smoking exhibited an average of 18% more PVCs (95% CI, 3-36%; P=0.02) than did never smokers. After 5 years, PVC frequency increased from a median of 0.5 (IQR, 0.1-4.7) to 1.2 (IQR, 0.1-13.8) per hour ( P&lt;0.0001). Directly modifiable predictors of 5-year increase in PVCs, described as the odds per each quintile increase in PVCs, included increased diastolic blood pressure (odds ratio per SD increase, 1.16; 95% CI, 1.02-1.31; P=0.02) and a history of smoking (OR, 1.31; 95% CI, 1.02-1.68; P=0.04). Conclusions Enhancing physical activity, smoking cessation, and aggressive control of blood pressure may represent fruitful strategies to mitigate PVC frequency and PVC-associated adverse outcomes

NT -pro BNP as a Mediator of the Racial Difference in Incident Atrial Fibrillation and Heart Failure.

Background Blacks harbor more cardiovascular risk factors than whites, but experience less atrial fibrillation ( AF ). Conversely, whites may have a lower risk of heart failure ( CHF ). N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide ( NT -pro BNP) levels are higher in whites, predict incident AF , and have diuretic effects in the setting of increased ventricular diastolic pressures, potentially providing a unifying explanation for these racial differences. Methods and Results We used data from the CHS (Cardiovascular Health Study) to determine the degree to which baseline NT -pro BNP levels mediate the relationships between race and incident AF and CHF by comparing beta estimates between models with and without NT -pro BNP . The ARIC (Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities) study was used to assess reproducibility. Among 4731 CHS (770 black) and 12 418 ARIC (3091 black) participants, there were 1277 and 1253 incident AF events, respectively. Whites had higher baseline NT -pro BNP ( CHS : 40% higher than blacks; 95% CI , 29-53; ARIC : 39% higher; 95% CI , 33-46) and had a greater risk of incident AF compared with blacks ( CHS : adjusted hazard ratio, 1.60; 95% CI , 1.31-1.93; ARIC : hazard ratio, 1.93; 95% CI , 1.57-2.27). NT -pro BNP levels explained a significant proportion of the racial difference in AF risk ( CHS : 36.2%; 95% CI , 23.2-69.2%; ARIC : 24.6%; 95% CI , 14.8-39.6%). Contrary to our hypothesis, given an increased risk of CHF among whites in CHS (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.20; 95% CI , 1.05-1.47) and the absence of a significant association between race and CHF in ARIC (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.07; 95% CI , 0.94-1.23), CHF -related mediation analyses were not performed. Conclusions A substantial portion of the relationship between race and AF was statistically explained by baseline NT -pro BNP levels. No consistent relationship between race and CHF was observed

Fast Color Quantization Using Weighted Sort-Means Clustering

Color quantization is an important operation with numerous applications in graphics and image processing. Most quantization methods are essentially based on data clustering algorithms. However, despite its popularity as a general purpose clustering algorithm, k-means has not received much respect in the color quantization literature because of its high computational requirements and sensitivity to initialization. In this paper, a fast color quantization method based on k-means is presented. The method involves several modifications to the conventional (batch) k-means algorithm including data reduction, sample weighting, and the use of triangle inequality to speed up the nearest neighbor search. Experiments on a diverse set of images demonstrate that, with the proposed modifications, k-means becomes very competitive with state-of-the-art color quantization methods in terms of both effectiveness and efficiency.Comment: 30 pages, 2 figures, 4 table

Ectopy on a single 12‐lead ECG, incident cardiac myopathy, and death in the community

BackgroundAtrial fibrillation and heart failure are 2 of the most common diseases, yet ready means to identify individuals at risk are lacking. The 12-lead ECG is one of the most accessible tests in medicine. Our objective was to determine whether a premature atrial contraction observed on a standard 12-lead ECG would predict atrial fibrillation and mortality and whether a premature ventricular contraction would predict heart failure and mortality.Methods and resultsWe utilized the CHS (Cardiovascular Health) Study, which followed 5577 participants for a median of 12&nbsp;years, as the primary cohort. The ARIC (Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study), the replication cohort, captured data from 15&nbsp;792 participants over a median of 22&nbsp;years. In the CHS, multivariable analyses revealed that a baseline 12-lead ECG premature atrial contraction predicted a 60% increased risk of atrial fibrillation (hazard ratio, 1.6; 95% CI, 1.3-2.0; P&lt;0.001) and a premature ventricular contraction predicted a 30% increased risk of heart failure (hazard ratio, 1.3; 95% CI, 1.0-1.6; P=0.021). In the negative control analyses, neither predicted incident myocardial infarction. A premature atrial contraction was associated with a 30% increased risk of death (hazard ratio, 1.3; 95% CI, 1.1-1.5; P=0.008) and a premature ventricular contraction was associated with a 20% increased risk of death (hazard ratio, 1.2; 95% CI, 1.0-1.3; P=0.044). Similarly statistically significant results for each analysis were also observed in ARIC.ConclusionsBased on a single standard ECG, a premature atrial contraction predicted incident atrial fibrillation and death and a premature ventricular contraction predicted incident heart failure and death, suggesting that this commonly used test may predict future disease

Association Between Chronic Hepatitis C Virus Infection and Myocardial Infarction Among People Living With HIV in the United States.

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection is common among people living with human immunodeficiency virus (PLWH). Extrahepatic manifestations of HCV, including myocardial infarction (MI), are a topic of active research. MI is classified into types, predominantly atheroembolic type 1 MI (T1MI) and supply-demand mismatch type 2 MI (T2MI). We examined the association between HCV and MI among patients in the Centers for AIDS Research (CFAR) Network of Integrated Clinical Systems, a US multicenter clinical cohort of PLWH. MIs were centrally adjudicated and categorized by type using the Third Universal Definition of Myocardial Infarction. We estimated the association between chronic HCV (RNA+) and time to MI while adjusting for demographic characteristics, cardiovascular risk factors, clinical characteristics, and history of injecting drug use. Among 23,407 PLWH aged ≥18 years, there were 336 T1MIs and 330 T2MIs during a median of 4.7 years of follow-up between 1998 and 2016. HCV was associated with a 46% greater risk of T2MI (adjusted hazard ratio (aHR)&nbsp;=&nbsp;1.46, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.09, 1.97) but not T1MI (aHR&nbsp;=&nbsp;0.87, 95% CI: 0.58, 1.29). In an exploratory cause-specific analysis of T2MI, HCV was associated with a 2-fold greater risk of T2MI attributed to sepsis (aHR&nbsp;=&nbsp;2.01, 95% CI: 1.25, 3.24). Extrahepatic manifestations of HCV in this high-risk population are an important area for continued research

Alcohol consumption and leukocyte telomere length.

The relationship between alcohol consumption and mortality generally exhibits a U-shaped curve. The longevity observed with moderate alcohol consumption may be explained by other confounding factors, and, if such a relationship is present, the mechanism is not well understood. Indeed, the optimal amount of alcohol consumption for health has yet to be determined. Leukocyte telomere length is an emerging quantifiable marker of biological age and health, and a shorter telomere length is a predictor of increased mortality. Because leukocyte telomere length is a quantifiable and objectively measurable biomarker of aging, we sought to identify the amount of alcohol consumption associated with the longest telomere length and least telomere length attrition. Among over 2,000 participants from two distinct cohort studies, we found no pattern of alcohol consumption that was associated with longer telomere length or less telomere length attrition over time. Binge drinking may reduce telomere length. Using telomere length as a marker of age and health, these data fail to demonstrate any benefits of alcohol consumption, even when consumed in moderation

Peripheral Arterial Disease and Risk of Atrial Fibrillation and Stroke: The Multi�Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis

Background Peripheral arterial disease (PAD) shares several risk factors with atrial fibrillation (AF), and persons with PAD have an increased risk of stroke. It is unclear if PAD is associated with an increased risk for AF and whether this potential association explains the increased risk of stroke observed in those with PAD. Methods and Results We examined the association between PAD, measured by ankle�brachial index (ABI), and incident AF and incident stroke, separately, in 6568 participants (mean age 62±10 years, 53% women, 62% nonwhite) from the Multi�Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA). ABI values 1.4 defined PAD. AF was ascertained through review of hospital discharge records and from Medicare claims data until December 31, 2010. An independent adjudication committee ascertained stroke events. Cox regression was used to estimate hazard ratios and 95% CIs for the association between PAD and AF and stroke. Over a median follow�up of 8.5 years, 301 (4.6%) participants developed AF and 140 (2.1%) developed stroke. In a model adjusted for sociodemographics, cardiovascular risk factors, and potential confounders, PAD was associated with an increased risk of AF (hazard ratio 1.5, 95% CI 1.1 to 2.0). In a similar model, PAD was associated with incident stroke (hazard ratio 1.7, 95% CI 1.1 to 2.5), and the magnitude of risk was not different after inclusion of AF as a time�dependent covariate (hazard ratio 1.7, 95% CI 1.1 to 2.5). Conclusions PAD is associated with an increased risk of AF and stroke in MESA. Potentially, the relationship between PAD and stroke is not mediated by AF