PRODUKSI DAGING SAPI DI INDONESIA DAN SKENARIO PENINGKATAN: SEBUAH ANALISIS DAMPAK UNTUK PENGAMBILAN KEBIJAKAN

Daging sapi sebagai produk pangan hewani yang dikonsumsi masyarakat Indonesia terus mengalami peningkatan. Data menunjukkan konsumsi daging sapi pada tahun 2022 jauh melebihi produksi dalam negeri. Produksi sapi potong yang kurang mencukupi pada satu sisi dan konsumsi daging yang berlebih pada sisi lainnya memaksa perlu dilakukan impor daging sapi. Meskipun sudah dibuka impor daging sapi, persoalan kelebihan konsumsi daging sapi tidak juga terpenuhi sehingga impor terus berlangsung dengan tidak terbendung. Penelitian ini bertujuan menjelaskan faktor determinan produksi daging sapi di Indonesia dan upaya yang dapat diambil untuk meningkatkan produksi dimaksud melalui skenario dan simulasi. Analisis menggunakan model regresi linear berganda, dengan data time series 30 tahun (1993–2022). Sumber data berasal dari Badan Pusat Statistik Nasional (BPS) dan Kementerian Pertanian Indonesia. Model dievaluasi sesuai kriteri apriori dan statistik, diikuti penetapan skenario dan simulasi dampak. Hasil analisis menunjukkan produksi daging sapi di Indonesia dipengaruhi oleh ketersediaan jumlah perusahaan pemelihara ternak sapi dan tingkat harga per kg daging sapi. Skenario yang berdampak meningkatkan produksi daging sapi adalah peningkatan harga dan jumlah perusahaan pemelihara ternak sapi. Skenario yang direkomendasikan untuk diterapkan adalah kombinasi peningkatan harga daging sapi sebesar 5% dan peningkatan jumlah perusahaan pemelihara ternak sapi hingga 10%. ABSTRACT  One of the main animal food products consumed by Indonesian people is beef, where people's consumption of beef continues to increase. Data shows that beef consumption in 2022 will far exceed domestic production. The situation of insufficient supplies on the one hand and excessive meat consumption on the other hand forces the need to import beef. Even though beef imports have been opened, the problem of excess beef consumption has not been addressed so imports continue unstoppably. This research aims to explain the determinant factors of beef production in Indonesia and the efforts that can be taken to increase production through scenarios and simulations. The analysis uses a multiple linear regression model, with 30-year time series data (1993 – 2022). Data sources come from the National Statistics Agency (BPS) and the Indonesian Ministry of Agriculture. The model is evaluated according to a priori and statistical criteria, followed by scenario determination and impact simulation. The results of the analysis show that beef production in Indonesia is influenced by the availability of the number of cattle-keeping companies and the price level per kg of beef. The scenario that has the impact of increasing beef production is an increase in prices and the number of cattle-raising companies. The recommended scenario to be implemented is a combination of increasing beef prices by 5% and increasing the number of cattle-keeping companies by up to 10%

ANALISIS PERAMALAN HARGA DAGING AYAM PEDAGING DI KOTA AMBON DAN RISIKO YANG DITIMBULKAN TERHADAP DAYA BELI MASYARAKAT

Harga daging ayam pedaging di Kota Ambon akhir-akhir ini terus meningkat disebabkan oleh keterbatasan persediaan (supply) dan tarikan permintaan yang kuat. Kenaikan harga menyebabkan daya beli masyarakat menurun dan mengakibatkan berbagai risiko harus dihadapi masyarakat konsumen. Diperlukan peramalan harga ke depan untuk mengetahui seberapa besar risiko penurunan daya beli konsumen. Penelitian ini bertujuan meramalkan trend kenaikan harga daging ayam di Kota Ambon dalam setahun ke depan dan menganalisis risiko kenaikan harga tersebut terhadap penurunan daya beli masyarakat. Peramalan menggunakan metode linear trend, diawali analisis model regresi dan dilanjutkan dengan peramalan harga daging ayam pedaging untuk periode 1 tahun mendatang (Oktober 2022 hingga September 2023). Data untuk analisis bersumber dari Pusat Informasi Harga Pangan Strategis Nasional (PIHPS NASIONAL). Hasil penelitian menunjukkan rata-rata harga daging ayam pedaging di Kota Ambon selama 21 periode sebelum peramalan sebesar Rp. 37.476,19 per kg atau bertumbuh 0,94%. Rata-rata harga per kg pada periode peramalan Oktober 2022 hingga September 2023 sebesar Rp. 41.976,18 atau bertumbuh 0,65%. Kenaikan harga rata-rata sebelum peramalan dengan sesudah peramalan sebesar 12,01% atau harga meningkat Rp.4.500,- per kg. Kenaikan harga ini mengindikasikan penurunan daya beli konsumen rata-rata 12,01% atau setara dengan penurunan jumlah konsumsi dari 1 kg atau 1000 gr menjadi tersisa 0,88 kg atau 880 gr. Penurunan daya beli dan jumlah konsumsi daging ayam pedaging dikategorikan sebagai angka risiko cukup besar. Mitigasi dilakukan dengan mendorong pengembangan produksi daging ayam pedaging di tingkat produsen lokal meskipun efeknya mengurangi risiko cukup lambat.    ABSTRACT The price of broiler meat in Ambon City has recently continued to increase due to limited supply and strong demand pull. The increase in prices causes people's purchasing power to decrease and results in various risks that the consumer community must face. Future price forecasting is needed to find out how big the risk of a decline in consumer purchasing power is. This study aims to predict the rising trend of chicken meat prices in Ambon City in the next year and to analyze the risk of rising prices on the decline in people's purchasing power. Forecasting uses the linear trend method, starting with regression model analysis and following by forecasting the price of broiler meat for the next 1 year period (October 2022 to September 2023). Data for analysis is sourced from the National Strategic Food Price Information Center (PIHPS NASIONAL). The results showed that the average price of broiler meat in Ambon City for 21 periods before forecasting was Rp. 37,476.19 per kg or grew 0.94%. The average price per kg in the forecasting period from October 2022 to September 2023 is Rp. 41,976.18 or a growth of 0.65%. The increase in the average price before the forecast and after the forecast is 12.01% or the price increases by Rp. 4,500,- per kg. This price increase indicates a decrease in consumer purchasing power by an average of 12.01% or equivalent to a decrease in the amount of consumption from 1 kg or 1000 gr to the remaining 0.88 kg or 880 gr. The decrease in purchasing power and the amount of consumption of broiler meat is categorized as a significant risk figure. Mitigation is carried out by encouraging the development of broiler meat production at the local producer level although the effect of reducing risk is quite slow

ROMANTISISME DAN INTUISIONISME

Romantic heritage, as a philosophical current, is still central to our recent culture. The ecological issues and pluralism not only exist in the realm crucial problem of the weakness in political commitment, but first of all it is that of ethics and moral. Thus, it is the problem of inner voice, personal and spiritual. Romanticism disagree with rationalism and materialism  epistemology, subsequently, they look for 'philosophy of nature' as a source and their basic worldview. Prophetically speaking, the primacy of intuition, imagination, feeling and passion, as an aesthetics terminology, are the words which they strived to answer the problem. The wisdom of nature have teach our human beings. Back to 'noble savage' is an imperative action, because history has teach us

Vatikan II setelah 50 Tahun: Quo Vadimus

Pope Francis’s statement “I am the Vatican II” sounds a manifesto. To which direction is the wind blowing the Church’s ark, we might have already guessed. The existing dichotomy between the liberal and the conservative as well as the tension between the primacies of the pastoral and the dogmatic will yet be conflicting and colliding with each other. After 50 years, the 2nd Vatican Council and the ongoing future discussions about the basic pastoral directions within the Catholicism are to this day white-hot. The Pope could be anyone. But theologians, for these are who make the lineamenta of a new document, will continue to colour the trend of the Church in giving responses to the signs of the time. The future of Catholicism will not be viewed as limited as the lens of the Vatican II. The future humanism will challenge the Church with wider and more complex considerations rather than dwelling on the problems of dialogue with other religions apologetically or racketing with traditionalism, liberalism, and sekularism. There are pressing matters such as ecology, global warming, terrorism, and the sprawling gap between the poor and the rich. Macro-ethics has become more imperative than micro-ethics. The Catholic Church is called out to create “a better world for all” – the Kingdom of God that is inclusive and at a stroke pluralistic

Humanisasi dan Divinisasi dalam Seni dan Ritual

Metaphysically speaking, human being is a homo ritualis or a ritual being, and not simply because of the need for any ritual, but because of one’s ontological structure. At the same time, human is also a homo sapiens artisticus. One’s way of being and one’s mode of thinking is always artistic. One might also say that ritual is always artistic and art is always ritualistic. In this sense ritual and art are inseparable, for ritual and art are sui generis. Both exist in the area of human experience and are in touch with cognition, affection, knowledge, action, and enjoyment. Art and ritual are the hermeneutical site of meanings and values that simultaneously become the same place to find the answers. Imagined within the realness of life, art and ritual are a field of meanings. When human beings slip away from their humanity, art and ritual become the medium to restore it. Not only can art and ritual create a balance between the physical and the mental aspects, between the body and the soul that have been dehumanised, they also can exalt human beings towards the divine level as the culmination of the humanisation process

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Melintas - 'Insight

Pemberdayaan dan Kegiatan Petani Multikomoditi di Pedesaan Propinsi Maluku: suatu Kajian Ekonomi Rumahtangga

This study aim to evaluate succession implementing the multicommodity farmers empowering programand to analysis, the impact of external factors change toward farmer's decision. The farmer's activity analyzedwith simultaneous econometrics equation approach in the household economic model. Result of the studynamely implementing of the empowering program only success technically, but not success increase thefarmer's welfare. Utilize and allocation of the labor, agricultural product and farmers disposible income haveincreased caused by increase of the commodity prices, wages and non agricultural income. The farmers shouldincrease the activity motivation and to utilize the effort opportunity available. Program owner need toimprovement the performance in implemented theirs program, in order always orientation to autonomy thefarmers

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Melintas - 'Insight

Humor dan Homo Ridens

Tahun 2014 ini ditandai dengan meninggalnya sejumlah komedian atau pelawak yang kesohor di tingkat internasional dan juga nasional. 13 Agustus 2014 Robin Williams mati bunuh diri cukup mengejutkan dunia tontonan. 4 September 2014 Joan Rivers meninggal meski dalam usia tua, namun menjadi pembahasan di mana mana, terutama kontroversi tentang dia yang pro dengan Israel tinimbang prihatin terhadap kemanusiaan di Palestina. 6 Maret 2014 pelawak senior Djodjon dari Jayakarta Group meninggal yang disusul oleh Mamiek Prakoso pada 3 Agustus 2014 sang pelawak Srimulat dengan ciri khas rambut bercat putih-hitam meninggal secara tiba-tiba. Kematian para pelawak ini bisa dianggap normal saja. Akan menjadi peristiwa yang istimewa dan penting ketika vokasi mereka sebagai komedian atau pelawak kita perkarakan. Bahwa ada profesi hidup sebagai pelawak dan profesi tersebut amat dibutuhkan oleh pemirsa di manapun. Jadwal acara TV akan terasa cemplang bila tidak disisipi tayangan yang bertema komedi. Masyarakat butuh tertawa. Entah untuk mentertawakan kekonyolan orang lain (para pelawak) atau mentertawakan diri sendiri ketika tontonan adalah proyeksi jiwa sang penonton. Pertanyaan yang sifatnya pragmatis, utilitaristik dan ekonomis mungkin lebih mudah untuk dijawab. Mengapa pelawak itu memilih profesi sebagai pelawak, karena pasar membutuhkannya. Namun bila petanyaan bergeser sedikit ke wilayah ontologis, barulah mengalami kesulitan untuk menjawab. Sulit karena memang tidak pernah, paling tidak jarang, untuk diperkarakan. Selain mengapa mesti diperkarakan. Namun sebagai „tracker‟ intelektual yang gemar menelusuri lorong-lorong gelap dan nyaris jarang ada orang yang melewatinya, kadang merasa asyik juga menjelajahiny