Modeling Longitudinal Ordinal Response Variables for Educational Data

This article presents applications for the analysis of multilevel ordinal response data through the proportional odds model. Data are drawn from the public-use Early Childhood Longitudinal Study. Results showed that gender, number of family risk characteristics, and age at kindergarten entry were associated with initial reading proficiency (0 to 5 scale). The number of family risks and age were associated with time-slopes. Three issues are highlighted: building multilevel ordinal models, interpretation of multilevel effects; and determination of predicted probabilities based on results of the multilevel proportional odds models

Cost-minimized combinations of wind power, solar power and electrochemical storage, powering the grid up to 99.9% of the time

AbstractWe model many combinations of renewable electricity sources (inland wind, offshore wind, and photovoltaics) with electrochemical storage (batteries and fuel cells), incorporated into a large grid system (72 GW). The purpose is twofold: 1) although a single renewable generator at one site produces intermittent power, we seek combinations of diverse renewables at diverse sites, with storage, that are not intermittent and satisfy need a given fraction of hours. And 2) we seek minimal cost, calculating true cost of electricity without subsidies and with inclusion of external costs. Our model evaluated over 28 billion combinations of renewables and storage, each tested over 35,040 h (four years) of load and weather data. We find that the least cost solutions yield seemingly-excessive generation capacity—at times, almost three times the electricity needed to meet electrical load. This is because diverse renewable generation and the excess capacity together meet electric load with less storage, lowering total system cost. At 2030 technology costs and with excess electricity displacing natural gas, we find that the electric system can be powered 90%–99.9% of hours entirely on renewable electricity, at costs comparable to today's—but only if we optimize the mix of generation and storage technologies

MAO-B Elevation in Mouse Brain Astrocytes Results in Parkinson's Pathology

Age-related increases in monoamine oxidase B (MAO-B) may contribute to neurodegeneration associated with Parkinson's disease (PD). The MAO-B inhibitor deprenyl, a long-standing antiparkinsonian therapy, is currently used clinically in concert with the dopamine precursor L-DOPA. Clinical studies suggesting that deprenyl treatment alone is not protective against PD associated mortality were targeted to symptomatic patients. However, dopamine loss is at least 60% by the time PD is symptomatically detectable, therefore lack of effect of MAO-B inhibition in these patients does not negate a role for MAO-B in pre-symptomatic dopaminergic loss. In order to directly evaluate the role of age-related elevations in astroglial MAO-B in the early initiation or progression of PD, we created genetically engineered transgenic mice in which MAO-B levels could be specifically induced within astroglia in adult animals. Elevated astrocytic MAO-B mimicking age related increase resulted in specific, selective and progressive loss of dopaminergic neurons in the substantia nigra (SN), the same subset of neurons primarily impacted in the human condition. This was accompanied by other PD-related alterations including selective decreases in mitochondrial complex I activity and increased mitochondrial oxidative stress. Along with a global astrogliosis, we observed local microglial activation within the SN. These pathologies correlated with decreased locomotor activity. Importantly, these events occurred even in the absence of the PD-inducing neurotoxin MPTP. Our data demonstrates that elevation of murine astrocytic MAO-B by itself can induce several phenotypes of PD, signifying that MAO-B could be directly involved in multiple aspects of disease neuropathology. Mechanistically this may involve increases in membrane permeant H2O2 which can oxidize dopamine within dopaminergic neurons to dopaminochrome which, via interaction with mitochondrial complex I, can result in increased mitochondrial superoxide. Our inducible astrocytic MAO-B transgenic provides a novel model for exploring pathways involved in initiation and progression of several key features associated with PD pathology and for therapeutic drug testing

Risk factors for Coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) death in a population cohort study from the Western Cape province, South Africa

Risk factors for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) death in sub-Saharan Africa and the effects of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and tuberculosis on COVID-19 outcomes are unknown. We conducted a population cohort study using linked data from adults attending public-sector health facilities in the Western Cape, South Africa. We used Cox proportional hazards models, adjusted for age, sex, location, and comorbidities, to examine the associations between HIV, tuberculosis, and COVID-19 death from 1 March to 9 June 2020 among (1) public-sector “active patients” (≥1 visit in the 3 years before March 2020); (2) laboratory-diagnosed COVID-19 cases; and (3) hospitalized COVID-19 cases. We calculated the standardized mortality ratio (SMR) for COVID-19, comparing adults living with and without HIV using modeled population estimates.Among 3 460 932 patients (16% living with HIV), 22 308 were diagnosed with COVID-19, of whom 625 died. COVID19 death was associated with male sex, increasing age, diabetes, hypertension, and chronic kidney disease. HIV was associated with COVID-19 mortality (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 2.14; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.70–2.70), with similar risks across strata of viral loads and immunosuppression. Current and previous diagnoses of tuberculosis were associated with COVID-19 death (aHR, 2.70 [95% CI, 1.81–4.04] and 1.51 [95% CI, 1.18–1.93], respectively). The SMR for COVID-19 death associated with HIV was 2.39 (95% CI, 1.96–2.86); population attributable fraction 8.5% (95% CI, 6.1–11.1)

Central auditory masking by an illusory tone

Many natural sounds fluctuate over time. The detectability of sounds in a sequence can be reduced by prior stimulation in a process known as forward masking. Forward masking is thought to reflect neural adaptation or neural persistence in the auditory nervous system, but it has been unclear where in the auditory pathway this processing occurs. To address this issue, the present study used a "Huggins pitch" stimulus, the perceptual effects of which depend on central auditory processing. Huggins pitch is an illusory tonal sensation produced when the same noise is presented to the two ears except for a narrow frequency band that is different (decorrelated) between the ears. The pitch sensation depends on the combination of the inputs to the two ears, a process that first occurs at the level of the superior olivary complex in the brainstem. Here it is shown that a Huggins pitch stimulus produces more forward masking in the frequency region of the decorrelation than a noise stimulus identical to the Huggins-pitch stimulus except with perfect correlation between the ears. This stimulus has a peripheral neural representation that is identical to that of the Huggins-pitch stimulus. The results show that processing in, or central to, the superior olivary complex can contribute to forward masking in human listeners

Photophobia and sensations of dryness in patients with migraine occur independent of baseline tear volume and improve following botulinum toxin A injections

BackgroundTo evaluate the efficacy of botulinum toxin A (BoNT-A) in reducing photophobia and dry eye symptoms in individuals with chronic migraine. Additionally, we aimed to evaluate tear film volume as a potential contributor to symptoms in these patients.MethodsRetrospective review of 76 patients who received BoNT-A for chronic migraine between 23 August 2017 and 13 December 2017 at the Miami Veterans Affairs Medical Center Neurotoxin Clinic. Demographic data and all comorbidities were queried via chart review. Standardised validated surveys were administered to assess symptoms prior to and after BoNT-A injection. Preinjection tear volumes were obtained using the phenol red thread (PRT) test.ResultsPreinjection migraine, photophobia and dry eye symptom scores were all significantly correlated, p<0.05, and none were associated with preinjection PRT results. After BoNT-A, improvements in migraine, photophobia and dry eye symptoms were also significantly correlated, p<0.05 and similarly did not associate with preinjection PRT results. Photophobia scores significantly improved following BoNT-A, while dry eye symptoms significantly improved in those with severe symptoms at baseline (DEQ-5 score ≥12), p=0.027. In logistic regression analysis of all individuals with dry eye symptoms (DEQ-5 ≥6), individuals with more severe dry eye symptoms were more likely improve, OR 1.27, 95% CI 1.06 to 1.51, p<0.01.ConclusionsBoNT-A significantly improved photophobia in patients being treated for migraine and also improved dry eye symptoms in patients with severe symptoms at baseline, independent of baseline tear film volume. These improvements may be due to modulation of shared trigeminal neural pathways

Markets for Product Modification Information

An important product strategy for firms in mature markets is value-adding modifications to existing products. Marketing information that reveals consumers' preferences, buying habits, and lifestyle is critical for the identification of such product modifications. We consider two types of value-adding modifications that are often facilitated by marketing information: -type modifications that increase the attractiveness of a product to a firm's loyal customers, and -type modifications that allow a firm to increase the appeal of its product to a competitor's loyal customers. We examine two aspects of the markets for product modification information: (1) the manner in which retention and conquesting modifications affect competition between downstream firms, and (2) the optimal selling and pricing policies for a vendor who markets product modification information. We consider several aspects of the vendor's contracting problem, including how a vendor should package and target the information to the downstream firms and whether the vendor should limit the type of information that is sold. This research also examines when a vendor can gain by offering exclusivity to a firm. We address these issues in a model consisting of an information vendor facing two downstream firms that sell differentiated products. The model analyzes how information contracting is affected by differentiation in the downstream market and the quality of the information (in terms of how “impactful” the resulting modifications are). We analyze two possible scenarios. In the first, the information facilitates modifications that increase the appeal of products to the loyal customers of only one of the two downstream firms (i.e., one-sided information). In the second scenario, the information facilitates modifications that are attractive to the loyal consumers of both the firms (i.e., two-sided information). The effect of modifications on downstream competition depends on whether they are of the retention or the conquesting type. A retention-type modification increases the “effective” differentiation between the firms and softens price competition. Conquesting modifications, however, have benefits as well as associated costs. A conquesting modification of low impact reduces the “effective” differentiation between competing products and leads to increased price competition. However, when conquesting modifications are of sufficiently high impact, they also have the benefit of helping a firm to capture the customers of the competitor. The vendor's strategy for one-sided information always involves selling to one firm, the firm for which the modifications are of the retention type. When the identified modifications are of low impact, this result is expected because conquesting modifications are for downstream firms. However, even when the information identifies high-impact modifications (and positive profits are generated by selling the information as conquesting information), the vendor is strictly better off by targeting his information to the firm for which the modification is the retention type. With two-sided information, the equilibrium strategy is for the vendor to sell the complete packet of information (information on both retention and conquesting modifications) to both downstream firms. However, in equilibrium, both firms only implement retention-type modifications. The information on conquesting modifications is “passive” in the sense that it is never used by downstream firms. Yet the vendor makes strictly greater profit by including it in the packet. This obtains because the price charged for information depends critically on the situation an individual firm encounters by buying the information. The presence of conquesting information in the packet puts a nonbuyer in a worse situation, and this underlines the “passive power of information.” The vendor gains by including the conquesting information even though it is not used in equilibrium.Marketing of Information, Information Packaging, Selling Contracts, Retention Modifications, Conquesting Modifications, Product Modifications, Passive Power of Information