De-risking the energy transition by quantifying the uncertainties in fault stability

The operations needed to decarbonise our energy systems increasingly involve faulted rocks in the subsurface. To manage the technical challenges presented by these rocks and the justifiable public concern over induced seismicity, we need to assess the risks. Widely used measures for fault stability, including slip and dilation tendency and fracture susceptibility, can be combined with Response Surface Methodology from engineering and Monte Carlo simulations to produce statistically viable ensembles for the analysis of probability. In this paper, we describe the implementation of this approach using custom-built open source Python code (pfs – probability of fault slip). The technique is then illustrated using two synthetic datasets and two case studies drawn from active or potential sites for geothermal energy in the UK, and discussed in the light of induced seismicity focal mechanisms. The analysis of probability highlights key gaps in our knowledge of the stress field, fluid pressures and rock properties. Scope exists to develop, integrate and exploit citizen science projects to generate more and better data, and simultaneously include the public in the necessary discussions about hazard and risk

Singularities of the renormalization group flow for random elastic manifolds

We consider the singularities of the zero temperature renormalization group flow for random elastic manifolds. When starting from small scales, this flow goes through two particular points $l^{*}$ and $l_{c}$, where the average value of the random squared potential turnes negative ($l^{*}$) and where the fourth derivative of the potential correlator becomes infinite at the origin ($l_{c}$). The latter point sets the scale where simple perturbation theory breaks down as a consequence of the competition between many metastable states. We show that under physically well defined circumstances $l_{c} to negative values does not take place.Comment: RevTeX, 3 page

Acoustic characterization of crack damage evolution in sandstone deformed under conventional and true triaxial loading

We thank the Associate Editor, Michelle Cooke, and the reviewers, Ze'ev Reches and Yves Guéguen, for useful comments which helped to improve the manuscript. We thank J.G. Van Munster for providing access to the true triaxial apparatus at KSEPL and for technical support during the experimental program. We thank R. Pricci for assistance with technical drawings of the apparatus. This work was partly funded by NERC award NE/N002938/1 and by a NERC Doctoral Studentship, which we gratefully acknowledge. Supporting data are included in a supporting information file; any additional data may be obtained from J.B. (e-mail: [email protected]).Peer reviewedPublisher PD

One-Dimensional Variational Ionospheric Retrieval Using Radio Occultation Bending Angles:Part 1 -Theory

A new one-dimensional variational (1D-Var) retrieval method for ionospheric GNSS radio occultation (GNSS-RO) measurements is described. The forward model implicit in the retrieval calculates the bending angles produced by a one-dimensional ionospheric electron density profile, modeled with multiple “Vary-Chap” layers. It is demonstrated that gradient based minimization techniques can be applied to this retrieval problem. The use of ionospheric bending angles is discussed. This approach circumvents the need for Differential Code Bias (DCB) estimates when using the measurements. This new, general retrieval method is applicable to both standard GNSS-RO retrieval problems, and the truncated geometry of EUMETSAT's Metop Second Generation (Metop-SG), which will provide GNSS-RO measurements up to about 600 km above the surface. The climatological a priori information used in the 1D-Var is effectively a starting point for the 1D-Var minimization, rather than a strong constraint on the final solution. In this paper the approach has been tested with 143 COSMIC-1 measurements. We find that the method converges in 135 of the cases, but around 25 of those have high “cost at convergence” values. In the companion paper (Elvidge et al., 2023), a full statistical analysis of the method, using over 10,000 COSMIC-2 measurements, has been made.Key Points• A new method of deriving ionospheric electron densities, using the difference between bending angles at two different frequencies• It is based on a 1D variational retrieval, the solution of which is the best fit to the a priori background and the observations• The forward model assumes the ionosphere to consist of several idealized “Vary-Chap” electron density layer

Efficiency and Stability Issues in the Numerical Computation of Fourier Transforms and Convolutions on the 2-Sphere

Earlier work by Driscoll and Healy has produced an efficient algorithm for computing the Fourier transform of band-limited functions on the sphere. In this paper we present a greatly improved inverse transform, and consequent improved convolution algorithm for such functions. We also discuss implementational considerations and give heuristics for allowing reliable floating point implementations of a slightly modified algorithm at little cost in either theoretical or actual performance. This discussion is supplemented with numerical experiments from our implementation in C on a DecStation 5000. These results give strong indications that the algorithm is both reliable and efficient for a large range of useful problem sizes

One‐Dimensional Variational Ionospheric Retrieval Using Radio Occultation Bending Angles::2. Validation

Culverwell et al. (2023, https://doi.org/10.1029/2023SW003572) described a newone-dimensional variational (1D-Var) retrieval approach for ionospheric GNSS radio occultation (GNSS-RO)measurements. The approach maps a one-dimensional ionospheric electron density profile, modeled withmultiple “Vary-Chap” layers, to bending angle space. This paper improves the computational performance ofthe 1D-Var retrieval using an improved background model and validates the approach by comparing with theCOSMIC-2 profile retrievals, based on an Abel Transform inversion, and co-located (within 200 km) ionosondeobservations using all suitable data from 2020. A three or four layer Vary-Chap in the 1D-Var retrievalshows improved performance compared to COSMIC-2 retrievals in terms of percentage error for the F2 peakparameters (NmF2 and hmF2). Furthermore, skill in retrieval (compared to COSMIC-2 profiles) throughout thebottomside (∼90–300 km) has been demonstrated. With a single Vary-Chap layer the performance is similarbut this improves by approximately 40% when using four-layers

Distance-generalized Core Decomposition

The $k$-core of a graph is defined as the maximal subgraph in which every vertex is connected to at least $k$ other vertices within that subgraph. In this work we introduce a distance-based generalization of the notion of $k$-core, which we refer to as the $(k,h)$-core, i.e., the maximal subgraph in which every vertex has at least $k$ other vertices at distance $\leq h$ within that subgraph. We study the properties of the $(k,h)$-core showing that it preserves many of the nice features of the classic core decomposition (e.g., its connection with the notion of distance-generalized chromatic number) and it preserves its usefulness to speed-up or approximate distance-generalized notions of dense structures, such as $h$-club. Computing the distance-generalized core decomposition over large networks is intrinsically complex. However, by exploiting clever upper and lower bounds we can partition the computation in a set of totally independent subcomputations, opening the door to top-down exploration and to multithreading, and thus achieving an efficient algorithm

Radiation from low-momentum zoom-whirl orbits

We study zoom-whirl behaviour of equal mass, non-spinning black hole binaries in full general relativity. The magnitude of the linear momentum of the initial data is fixed to that of a quasi-circular orbit, and its direction is varied. We find a global maximum in radiated energy for a configuration which completes roughly one orbit. The radiated energy in this case exceeds the value of a quasi-circular binary with the same momentum by 15%. The direction parameter only requires minor tuning for the localization of the maximum. There is non-trivial dependence of the energy radiated on eccentricity (several local maxima and minima). Correlations with orbital dynamics shortly before merger are discussed. While being strongly gauge dependent, these findings are intuitive from a physical point of view and support basic ideas about the efficiency of gravitational radiation from a binary system.Comment: 9 pages, 6 figures, Amaldi8 conference proceedings as publishe

Treating hummingbirds as feathered bees : a case of ethological cross-pollination

Hummingbirds feed from hundreds of flowers every day. The properties of these flowers provide these birds with a wealth of information about colour, space and time to guide how they forage. To understand how hummingbirds might use this information, researchers have adapted established laboratory paradigms for use in the field. In recent years, however, experimental inspiration has come less from other birds, and more from looking at other nectar-feeders, particularly honeybees and bumblebees, which have been models for foraging behaviour and cognition for over a century. In a world in which the cognitive abilities of bees regularly make the news, research on the influence of ecology and sensory systems on bee behaviour is leading to novel insights in hummingbird cognition. As methods designed to study insects in the laboratory are being applied to hummingbirds in the field, converging methods can help us identify and understand convergence in cognition, behaviour and ecology.PostprintPeer reviewe