Global, regional, and national burden of disorders affecting the nervous system, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BackgroundDisorders affecting the nervous system are diverse and include neurodevelopmental disorders, late-life neurodegeneration, and newly emergent conditions, such as cognitive impairment following COVID-19. Previous publications from the Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor Study estimated the burden of 15 neurological conditions in 2015 and 2016, but these analyses did not include neurodevelopmental disorders, as defined by the International Classification of Diseases (ICD)-11, or a subset of cases of congenital, neonatal, and infectious conditions that cause neurological damage. Here, we estimate nervous system health loss caused by 37 unique conditions and their associated risk factors globally, regionally, and nationally from 1990 to 2021.MethodsWe estimated mortality, prevalence, years lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), with corresponding 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs), by age and sex in 204 countries and territories, from 1990 to 2021. We included morbidity and deaths due to neurological conditions, for which health loss is directly due to damage to the CNS or peripheral nervous system. We also isolated neurological health loss from conditions for which nervous system morbidity is a consequence, but not the primary feature, including a subset of congenital conditions (ie, chromosomal anomalies and congenital birth defects), neonatal conditions (ie, jaundice, preterm birth, and sepsis), infectious diseases (ie, COVID-19, cystic echinococcosis, malaria, syphilis, and Zika virus disease), and diabetic neuropathy. By conducting a sequela-level analysis of the health outcomes for these conditions, only cases where nervous system damage occurred were included, and YLDs were recalculated to isolate the non-fatal burden directly attributable to nervous system health loss. A comorbidity correction was used to calculate total prevalence of all conditions that affect the nervous system combined.FindingsGlobally, the 37 conditions affecting the nervous system were collectively ranked as the leading group cause of DALYs in 2021 (443 million, 95% UI 378–521), affecting 3·40 billion (3·20–3·62) individuals (43·1%, 40·5–45·9 of the global population); global DALY counts attributed to these conditions increased by 18·2% (8·7–26·7) between 1990 and 2021. Age-standardised rates of deaths per 100 000 people attributed to these conditions decreased from 1990 to 2021 by 33·6% (27·6–38·8), and age-standardised rates of DALYs attributed to these conditions decreased by 27·0% (21·5–32·4). Age-standardised prevalence was almost stable, with a change of 1·5% (0·7–2·4). The ten conditions with the highest age-standardised DALYs in 2021 were stroke, neonatal encephalopathy, migraine, Alzheimer's disease and other dementias, diabetic neuropathy, meningitis, epilepsy, neurological complications due to preterm birth, autism spectrum disorder, and nervous system cancer.InterpretationAs the leading cause of overall disease burden in the world, with increasing global DALY counts, effective prevention, treatment, and rehabilitation strategies for disorders affecting the nervous system are needed

Mortality from gastrointestinal congenital anomalies at 264 hospitals in 74 low-income, middle-income, and high-income countries: a multicentre, international, prospective cohort study

Summary Background Congenital anomalies are the fifth leading cause of mortality in children younger than 5 years globally. Many gastrointestinal congenital anomalies are fatal without timely access to neonatal surgical care, but few studies have been done on these conditions in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs). We compared outcomes of the seven most common gastrointestinal congenital anomalies in low-income, middle-income, and high-income countries globally, and identified factors associated with mortality. Methods We did a multicentre, international prospective cohort study of patients younger than 16 years, presenting to hospital for the first time with oesophageal atresia, congenital diaphragmatic hernia, intestinal atresia, gastroschisis, exomphalos, anorectal malformation, and Hirschsprung’s disease. Recruitment was of consecutive patients for a minimum of 1 month between October, 2018, and April, 2019. We collected data on patient demographics, clinical status, interventions, and outcomes using the REDCap platform. Patients were followed up for 30 days after primary intervention, or 30 days after admission if they did not receive an intervention. The primary outcome was all-cause, in-hospital mortality for all conditions combined and each condition individually, stratified by country income status. We did a complete case analysis. Findings We included 3849 patients with 3975 study conditions (560 with oesophageal atresia, 448 with congenital diaphragmatic hernia, 681 with intestinal atresia, 453 with gastroschisis, 325 with exomphalos, 991 with anorectal malformation, and 517 with Hirschsprung’s disease) from 264 hospitals (89 in high-income countries, 166 in middleincome countries, and nine in low-income countries) in 74 countries. Of the 3849 patients, 2231 (58·0%) were male. Median gestational age at birth was 38 weeks (IQR 36–39) and median bodyweight at presentation was 2·8 kg (2·3–3·3). Mortality among all patients was 37 (39·8%) of 93 in low-income countries, 583 (20·4%) of 2860 in middle-income countries, and 50 (5·6%) of 896 in high-income countries (p<0·0001 between all country income groups). Gastroschisis had the greatest difference in mortality between country income strata (nine [90·0%] of ten in lowincome countries, 97 [31·9%] of 304 in middle-income countries, and two [1·4%] of 139 in high-income countries; p≤0·0001 between all country income groups). Factors significantly associated with higher mortality for all patients combined included country income status (low-income vs high-income countries, risk ratio 2·78 [95% CI 1·88–4·11], p<0·0001; middle-income vs high-income countries, 2·11 [1·59–2·79], p<0·0001), sepsis at presentation (1·20 [1·04–1·40], p=0·016), higher American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) score at primary intervention (ASA 4–5 vs ASA 1–2, 1·82 [1·40–2·35], p<0·0001; ASA 3 vs ASA 1–2, 1·58, [1·30–1·92], p<0·0001]), surgical safety checklist not used (1·39 [1·02–1·90], p=0·035), and ventilation or parenteral nutrition unavailable when needed (ventilation 1·96, [1·41–2·71], p=0·0001; parenteral nutrition 1·35, [1·05–1·74], p=0·018). Administration of parenteral nutrition (0·61, [0·47–0·79], p=0·0002) and use of a peripherally inserted central catheter (0·65 [0·50–0·86], p=0·0024) or percutaneous central line (0·69 [0·48–1·00], p=0·049) were associated with lower mortality. Interpretation Unacceptable differences in mortality exist for gastrointestinal congenital anomalies between lowincome, middle-income, and high-income countries. Improving access to quality neonatal surgical care in LMICs will be vital to achieve Sustainable Development Goal 3.2 of ending preventable deaths in neonates and children younger than 5 years by 2030

Soil quality and health risk assessment of heavy metals in agricultural areas irrigated with wastewater from Kitchener Drain, Nile Delta, Egypt

Kitchener drain is one of the largest drains in Nile Delta. It discharges water directly into Mediterranean Sea water affecting on the marine environment. Local population uses its water in irrigation and agriculture field along this drain. So it’s important to determine heavy metal content of agricultural soils used this water in irrigation process and assess the hazard and cancer risk on human health living in these areas. Six metals (Fe, Cd, Pb, Ni, Cr and Co) in total and available form were determined in eight geo-referenced soil samples. The order of these metals in soil was as follow; Ni &gt; Cr &gt; Fe &gt; Pb &gt; Cd &gt; Co. The order of these metals in the available form take the sequence of; Fe &gt; Ni &gt; Pb &gt; Cr &gt; Cd &gt; Co.&nbsp; All mean concentrations of metals were exceeding the standard limits of EU, CSQG and AUEC except for cobalt. Mean values of enrichment factors of metals give an indication that the sources of these metals in the environment were from anthropogenic activities. PLI and DC showed considerable degree of contamination in sites 4 &amp; 5. While it showed high degree of contamination in other sites. Hazard quotient from different exposure pathways namely; chemical daily intake (CDI), Dermal contact (DAD) and inhalation (ECinh) and hazard index calculations from metals within different sites were more than one, indicated that there is a chance of non-carcinogenic effects to occur. Also from these pathways, cancer risk (CR) was calculated, which exceed from dermal contact, followed by ingestion and finally from inhalation. Only CR of cobalt showed no risk in the study area when compared with other metal

Past and Future Changes of Land Use/Land Cover and the Potential Impact on Ecosystem Services Value of Damietta Governorate, Egypt

This investigation aims to assess the changes of Land Use/Land Cover (LULC) and its impact on ecosystem services value in Damietta Governorate, Egypt. To fulfill this aim, Landsat data of TM5 in 2001, ETM in 2011 and OLI in 2021 were used. The Maximum Likelihood Classifier was employed to track the changes in LULC of the study area. Cellular automata (CA) and Markov model adopted from IDRISI software were used for accurate prediction of the LULC in 2031. The VALIDATE model in TerrSet was used to compare the predicted 2031 LULC with actual 2021 LULC to assess the accuracy of the model. The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment was utilized to assess the value per unit area of land types. The results indicated that there was a noticeable change in different land cover classes during the duration 2001–2021. Results showed that there are decreases in the cultivated area and the bare area, meanwhile the urban area was increased. The cultivated area was remarkably decreased recording 548.2 km2 (62.15%) at 2001, 548.2 km2 (55.79%) at 2011 and 468.96 km2 (53.16%) at 2021 of the total study area. However, the percentage of urban area increased; reporting 65.69 km2 (7.45%), 124.57 km2 (14.12%), and 176.67 km2 (20.03%) at 2001, 2011, and 2021, respectively. LULC analyses in 2031 showed an increase in the urban area by 2.8% and a decrease in the cultivated area by 7.2%. The kappa index values are greater than 0.80, which shows a strong agreement between simulated and predicted LULC maps. The comprehensive index of Damietta Governorate ranges from 100 to 400. The ES that experienced positive ESV changes during the study period gives strength indicator for achieving the sustainable development of Damietta Governorate. To prevent further ecosystem degradation and to ensure the best possible delivery of ES, it is necessary to reduce the current drivers of LULC changes within the buildup in agricultural land. The study helps the local authorities to better understand the land use system and to develop an improved land use management strategies that manage the urban expansion and guarantee the ecological conservation

Global economic burden of unmet surgical need for appendicitis

Background There is a substantial gap in provision of adequate surgical care in many low- and middle-income countries. This study aimed to identify the economic burden of unmet surgical need for the common condition of appendicitis. Methods Data on the incidence of appendicitis from 170 countries and two different approaches were used to estimate numbers of patients who do not receive surgery: as a fixed proportion of the total unmet surgical need per country (approach 1); and based on country income status (approach 2). Indirect costs with current levels of access and local quality, and those if quality were at the standards of high-income countries, were estimated. A human capital approach was applied, focusing on the economic burden resulting from premature death and absenteeism. Results Excess mortality was 4185 per 100 000 cases of appendicitis using approach 1 and 3448 per 100 000 using approach 2. The economic burden of continuing current levels of access and local quality was US $92 492 million using approach 1 and$73 141 million using approach 2. The economic burden of not providing surgical care to the standards of high-income countries was $95 004 million using approach 1 and$75 666 million using approach 2. The largest share of these costs resulted from premature death (97.7 per cent) and lack of access (97.0 per cent) in contrast to lack of quality. Conclusion For a comparatively non-complex emergency condition such as appendicitis, increasing access to care should be prioritized. Although improving quality of care should not be neglected, increasing provision of care at current standards could reduce societal costs substantially

Global economic burden of unmet surgical need for appendicitis

Background There is a substantial gap in provision of adequate surgical care in many low- and middle-income countries. This study aimed to identify the economic burden of unmet surgical need for the common condition of appendicitis. Methods Data on the incidence of appendicitis from 170 countries and two different approaches were used to estimate numbers of patients who do not receive surgery: as a fixed proportion of the total unmet surgical need per country (approach 1); and based on country income status (approach 2). Indirect costs with current levels of access and local quality, and those if quality were at the standards of high-income countries, were estimated. A human capital approach was applied, focusing on the economic burden resulting from premature death and absenteeism. Results Excess mortality was 4185 per 100 000 cases of appendicitis using approach 1 and 3448 per 100 000 using approach 2. The economic burden of continuing current levels of access and local quality was US $92 492 million using approach 1 and$73 141 million using approach 2. The economic burden of not providing surgical care to the standards of high-income countries was $95 004 million using approach 1 and$75 666 million using approach 2. The largest share of these costs resulted from premature death (97.7 per cent) and lack of access (97.0 per cent) in contrast to lack of quality. Conclusion For a comparatively non-complex emergency condition such as appendicitis, increasing access to care should be prioritized. Although improving quality of care should not be neglected, increasing provision of care at current standards could reduce societal costs substantially

4Th Pediatric Allergy And Asthma Meeting (Paam)

WORKSHOP 4: Challenging clinical scenarios (CS01–CS06), CS01 Bullous lesions in two children: solitary mastocytoma, S. Tolga Yavuz, Ozan Koc, Ali Gungor, Faysal Gok, CS02 Multi-System Allergy (MSA) of cystic fibrosis: our institutional experience, Jessica Hawley, Christopher O’Brien, Matthew Thomas, Malcolm Brodlie, Louise Michaelis, CS03 Cold urticaria in pediatric age: an invisible cause for severe reactions, Inês Mota, Ângela Gaspar, Susana Piedade, Graça Sampaio, José Geraldo Dias, Miguel Paiva, Mário Morais-Almeida, CS04 Angioedema with C1 inhibitor deficiency in a girl: a challenge diagnosis, Cristina Madureira, Tânia Lopes, Susana Lopes, Filipa Almeida, Alexandra Sequeira, Fernanda Carvalho, José Oliveira, CS05 A child with unusual multiple organ allergy disease: what is the primer?, Fabienne Gay-Crosier, CS06 A case of uncontrolled asthma in a 6-year-old patient, Ioana-Valentina Nenciu, Andreia Florina Nita, Alexandru Ulmeanu, Dumitru Oraseanu, Carmen Zapucioiu, ORAL ABSTRACT SESSION 1: Food allergy (OP01–OP06), OP01 Food protein-induced enterocolitis syndrome: oral food challenge outcomes for tolerance evaluation in a Pediatric Hospital, Adrianna Machinena, Olga Domínguez Sánchez, Montserrat Alvaro Lozano, Rosa Jimenez Feijoo, Jaime Lozano Blasco, Mònica Piquer Gibert, Mª Teresa Giner Muñoz, Marcia Dias da Costa, Ana Maria Plaza Martín, OP02 Characteristics of infants with food protein-induced enterocolitis syndrome and allergic proctocolitis, Ebru Arik Yilmaz, Özlem Cavkaytar, Betul Buyuktiryaki, Ozge Soyer, Cansin Sackesen, OP03 The clinical and immunological outcomes after consumption of baked egg by 1–5 year old egg allergic children: results of a randomised controlled trial, MerrynNetting, Adaweyah El-Merhibi, Michael Gold, PatrickQuinn, IrmeliPenttila, Maria Makrides, OP04 Oral immunotherapy for treatment of egg allergy using low allergenic, hydrolysed egg, Stavroula Giavi, Antonella Muraro, Roger Lauener, Annick Mercenier, Eugen Bersuch, Isabella M. Montagner, Maria Passioti, Nicolò Celegato, Selina Summermatter, Sophie Nutten, Tristan Bourdeau, Yvonne M. Vissers, Nikolaos G. Papadopoulos, OP05 Chemical modification of a peanut extract results in an increased safety profile while maintaining efficacy, Hanneke van der Kleij, Hans Warmenhoven, Ronald van Ree, Raymond Pieters, Dirk Jan Opstelten, Hans van Schijndel, Joost Smit, OP06 Administration of the yellow fever vaccine in egg allergic children, Roisin Fitzsimons, Victoria Timms, George Du Toit, ORAL ABSTRACT SESSION 2: Asthma (OP07–OP12), OP07 Previous exacerbation is the most important risk factor for future exacerbations in school-age children with asthma, S. Tolga Yavuz, Guven Kaya, Mustafa Gulec, Mehmet Saldir, Osman Sener, Faysal Gok, OP08 Comparative study of degree of severity and laboratory changes between asthmatic children using different acupuncture modalities, Nagwa Hassan, Hala Shaaban, Hazem El-Hariri, Ahmed Kamel Inas E. Mahfouz, OP09 The concentration of exhaled carbon monoxide in asthmatic children with different controlled stadium, Papp Gabor, Biro Gabor, Kovacs Csaba, OP10 Effect of vitamin D3 supplementation during pregnancy on risk of persistent wheeze in the offspring: a randomised clinical trial, Bo Chawes, Klaus Bønnelykke, Jakob Stokholm, Lene Heickendorff, Susanne Brix, Morten Rasmussen, Hans Bisgaard, OP11 Lung function development in childhood, Henrik Wegener Hallas, Bo Chawes, Lambang Arianto, Hans Bisgaard, OP12 Is the effect of maternal and paternal asthma different in female and male children before puberty?, Maike Pincus, Thomas Keil, Andreas Reich, Ulrich Wahn, Susanne Lau, Linus Grabenhenrich, ORAL ABSTRACT SESSION 3: Epidemiology—genetics (OP13–OP18), OP13 Lifestyle is associated with incidence and category of allergen sensitisation: the ALADDIN birth cohort, Sara Fagerstedt, Helena Marell Hesla, Emelie Johansson, Helen Rosenlund, Axel Mie, Annika Scheynius, Johan Alm, OP15 Maternal filaggrin mutations increase the risk of atopic dermatitis in children: an effect independent of mutation inheritance, Jorge Esparza-Gordillo, Anja Matanovic, Ingo Marenholz, Anja Bauerfeind, Klaus Rohde, Katja Nemat, Min-Ae Lee-Kirsch, Magnus Nordenskjöld, Marten C. G. Winge, Thomas Keil, Renate Krüger, Susanne Lau, Kirsten Beyer, Birgit Kalb, Bodo Niggemann, Norbert Hübner, Heather J. Cordell, Maria Bradley, Young-Ae Lee, OP16 Allergic multimorbidity of asthma, rhinitis and eczema in the first 2 decades of the German MAS birth cohort, Thomas Keil, Hannah Gough, Linus Grabenhenrich, Dirk Schramm, Andreas Reich, John Beschorner, Antje Schuster, Carl-Peter Bauer, Johannes Forster, Fred Zepp, Young-Ae Lee, Renate Bergmann, Karl Bergmann, Ulrich Wahn, Susanne Lau, OP17 Childhood anaphylaxis: a growing concern, Filipe Benito Garcia, Inês Mota, Susana Piedade, Ângela Gaspar, Natacha Santos, Helena Pité, Mário Morais-Almeida, OP18 Indoor exposure to molds and dampness in infancy and its association to persistent atopic dermatitis in school age. Results from the Greek ISAAC II study, Athina Papadopoulou, Despina Mermiri, Elpida Xatziagorou, Ioannis Tsanakas, Stavroula Lampidi, Kostas Priftis, ORAL ABSTRACT SESSION 4: Pediatric rhinitis—immunotherapy (OP19–OP24), OP19 Associations between residential greenness and childhood allergic rhinitis and aeroallergen sensitisation in seven birth cohorts, Elaine Fuertes, Iana Markevych, Gayan Bowatte, Olena Gruzieva, Ulrike Gehring, Allan Becker, Dietrich Berdel, Michael Brauer, Chris Carlsten, Barbara Hoffmann, Anita Kozyrskyj, Caroline Lodge, Göran Pershagen, Alet Wijga, Heinrich Joachim, OP20 Full symptom control in pediatric patients with allergic rhinitis and asthma: results of a 2-year sublingual allergen immunotherapy study, Zorica Zivkovic, Ivana Djuric-Filipovic, Jasmina Jocić-Stevanovic, Snežana Zivanovic, OP21 Nasal epithelium of different ages of atopic subjects present increased levels of oxidative stress and increased cell cytotoxicity upon rhinovirus infection, Styliani Taka, Dimitra Kokkinou, Aliki Papakonstantinou, Panagiota Stefanopoulou, Anastasia Georgountzou, Paraskevi Maggina, Sofia Stamataki, Vassiliki Papaevanggelou, Evangelos Andreakos, Nikolaos G. Papadopoulos, OP22 Cluster subcutaneous immunotherapy schedule: tolerability profile in children, Monica Piquer Gibert, Montserrat Alvaro Lozano, Jaime Lozano Blasco, Olga Domínguez Sánchez, Rosa Jiménez Feijoo, Marcia Dias da Costa, Mª Teresa Giner Muñoz, Adriana Machinena Spera, Ana Maria Plaza Martín, OP23 Rhinitis as a risk factor for asthma severity in 11-year old children: population-based cohort study, Matea Deliu, Danielle Belgrave, Angela Simpson, Adnan Custovic, OP24 The Global Lung Function Initiative equations in airway obstruction evaluation of asthmatic children, João Gaspar Marques, Pedro Carreiro-Martins, Joana Belo, Sara Serranho, Isabel Peralta, Nuno Neuparth, Paula Leiria-Pinto, POSTER DISCUSSION SESSION 1: Food allergy (PD01–PD05), PD01 Allergen-specific humoral and cellular responses in children who fail egg oral immunotherapy due to allergic reactions, Marta Vazquez-Ortiz, Mariona Pascal, Ana Maria Plaza, Manel Juan, PD02 FoxP3 epigenetic features in children with cow milk allergy, Lorella Paparo, Rita Nocerino, Rosita Aitoro, Ilaria Langella, Antonio Amoroso, Alessia Amoroso, Carmen Di Scala, Roberto Berni Canani, PD04 Combined milk and egg allergy in early childhood: let them eat cake?, Santanu Maity, Giuseppina Rotiroti, Minal Gandhi, PD05 Introduction of complementary foods in relation to allergy and gut microbiota in farm and non-farm children, Karin Jonsson, Annika Ljung, Bill Hesselmar, Ingegerd Adlerbert, Hilde Brekke, Susanne Johansen, Agnes Wold, Ann-Sofie Sandberg, POSTER DISCUSSION SESSION 2: Asthma and wheeze (PD06–PD16), PD06 The association between asthma and exhaled nitric oxide is influenced by genetics and sensitisation, Björn Nordlund, Cecilia Lundholm, Villhelmina Ullemar, Marianne van Hage, Anne Örtqvist, Catarina Almqvist, PD09 Prevalence patterns of infant wheeze across Europe, Anna Selby, Kate Grimshaw, Thomas Keil, Linus Grabenhenrich, Michael Clausen, Ruta Dubakiene, Alessandro Fiocchi, Marek Kowalski, Nikos Papadopoulos, Marta Reche, Sigurveig Sigurdardottir, Aline Sprikkleman, Paraskevi Xepapadaki, Clare Mills, Kirsten Beyer, Graham Roberts, PD10 Epidemiologic changes in recurrent wheezing infants, Herberto Jose Chong Neto, Gustavo Falbo Wandalsen, Ana Carolina Dela Bianca, Carolina Aranda, Nelson Augusto Rosário, Dirceu Solé, Javier Mallol, Luis García Marcos, PD13 A single nucleotide polymorphism in the GLCCI1 gene is associated with response to asthma treatment in children, IvanaBanic, Matija Rijavec, Davor Plavec, Peter Korosec, Mirjana Turkalj, PD14 Pollen induced asthma: Could small molecules in pollen exacerbate the protein-mediated allergic response?, Alen Bozicevic, Maria De Mieri, Matthias Hamburger, PD15 A qualitative study to understand how we can empower teenagers to better self-manage their asthma, Simone Holley, Ruth Morris, Frances Mitchell, Rebecca Knibb, Susan Latter, Christina Liossi, Graham Roberts, PD16 Polymorphism of endothelial nitric oxide synthase (eNOS) gene among Egyptian children with bronchial asthma, Mostafa M. M. Hassan, POSTER DISCUSSION SESSION 3: Mechanisms—Epidemiology (PD17–PD21), PD17 Pregnancy outcomes in relation to development of allergy in a Swedish birth cohort, Malin Barman, Anna Sandin, Agnes Wold, Ann-Sofie Sandberg, PD18 Evolution of the IgE response to house dust mite molecules in childhood, Daniela Posa, Serena Perna, Carl-Peter Bauer, Ute Hoffmann, Johannes Forster, Fred Zepp, Antje Schuster, Ulrich Wahn, Thomas Keil, Susanne Lau, Kuan-Wei Chen, Yvonne Resch, Susanne Vrtala, Rudolf Valenta, Paolo Maria Matricardi, PD19 Antibody recognition of nsLTP-molecules as antigens but not as allergens in the German-MAS birth cohort, Olympia Tsilochristou, Alexander Rohrbach, Antonio Cappella, Stephanie Hofmaier, Laura Hatzler, Carl-Peter Bauer, Ute Hoffmann, Johannes Forster, Fred Zepp, Antje Schuster, RaffaeleD’Amelio, Ulrich Wahn, Thomas Keil, Susanne Lau, Paolo Maria Matricardi, PD20 Early life colonization with Lactobacilli and Staphylococcus aureus oppositely associates with the maturation and activation of FOXP3+ CD4 T-cells, Sophia Björkander, Maria A. Johansson, Gintare Lasaviciute, Eva Sverremark-Ekström, PD21 Genome-wide meta-analysis identifies 7 susceptibility loci involved in the atopic march, Ingo Marenholz, Jorge Esparza-Gordillo, Franz Rüschendorf, Anja Bauerfeind, David P. Strachan, Ben D. Spycher, Hansjörg Baurecht, Patricia Margaritte-Jeannin, Annika Sääf, Marjan Kerkhof, Markus Ege, Svetlana Baltic, Melanie C Matheson, Jin Li, Sven Michel, Wei Q. Ang, Wendy McArdle, Andreas Arnold, Georg Homuth, Florence Demenais, Emmanuelle Bouzigon, Cilla Söderhäll, Göran Pershagen, Johan C. de Jongste, Dirkje S Postma, Charlotte Braun-Fahrländer, Elisabeth Horak, Ludmila M. Ogorodova, Valery P. Puzyrev, Elena Yu Bragina, Thomas J Hudson, Charles Morin, David L Duffy, Guy B Marks, Colin F Robertson, Grant W Montgomery, Bill Musk, Philip J Thompson, Nicholas G. Martin, Alan James, Patrick Sleiman, Elina Toskala, Elke Rodriguez, Regina Fölster-Holst, Andre Franke, Wolfgang Lieb, Christian Gieger, Andrea Heinzmann, Ernst Rietschel, Thomas Keil, Sven Cichon, Markus M Nöthen, Craig E Pennell, Peter D Sly, Carsten O Schmidt, Anja Matanovic, Valentin Schneider, Matthias Heinig, Norbert Hübner, Patrick G. Holt, Susanne Lau, Michael Kabesch, Stefan Weidinger, Hakon Hakonarson, Manuel AR Ferreira, Catherine Laprise, Maxim B. Freidin, Jon Genuneit, Gerard H Koppelman, Erik Melén, Marie-Hélène Dizier, A. John Henderson, Young Ae Lee, POSTER DISCUSSION SESSION 4: Food allergy—Anaphylaxis (PD22–PD26), PD22 Atopy patch test in food protein induced enterocolitis caused by solid food, Purificacion González-Delgado, Esther Caparrós, Fernando Clemente, Begoña Cueva, Victoria M. Moreno, Jose Luis Carretero, Javier Fernández, PD23 Watermelon allergy: a novel presentation, Kate Swan, George Du Toit, PD24 A pilot study evaluating the usefulness of a guideline template for managing milk allergy in primary care, Mudiyur Gopi, Tim Smith, Edara Ramesh, Arun Sadasivam, PD26 Efficacy and safety of cow’s milk oral immunotherapy protocol, Inês Mota, Filipe Benito Garcia, Susana Piedade, Angela Gaspar, Graça Sampaio, Cristina Arêde, Luís Miguel Borrego, Graça Pires, Cristina Santa-Marta, Mário Morais-Almeida, POSTER DISCUSSION SESSION 5: Prevention and treatment—Allergy (PD27–PD36), PD27 Allergy-protection by the lactic acid bacterium Lactococcus lactis G121: mode-of-action as revealed in a murine model of experimental allergy, Stephanie Brand, Karina Stein, Holger Heine, Marion Kauth, PD29 The relationship between quality of life and morning salivary cortisol after acute bronchiolitis in infancy, Leif Bjarte Rolfsjord, Egil Bakkeheim, Johan Alm, Håvard Ove Skjerven, Kai-Håkon Carlsen, Jon Olav Hunderi, Teresa Løvold Berents, Petter Mowinckel, Karin C. Lødrup Carlsen, PD30 Randomised trial of the efficacy of MP29-02* compared with fluticasone propionate nasal spray in children aged ≥6 years to <12 years with allergic rhinitis, Ulrich Wahn, Ullrich Munzel, William Berger, PD31 10 mg of oral bilastine in 2 to 11 years old children has similar exposure to the adult therapeutic dose (20 mg), Ulrich Wahn, Román Valiente, Valvanera Vozmediano, John C. Lukas, Mónica Rodríguez, PD33 Daily symptoms, nocturnal symptoms, activity limitations and reliever therapies during the three steps of IOEASMA programme: a comparison, Sebastiano Guarnaccia, Luigi Vitale, Ada Pluda, Emanuele D’Agata, Denise Colombo, Stefano Felici, Valeria Gretter, Susanna Facchetti, Gaia Pecorelli, Cristina Quecchia, PD34 Sensitisation to an inert aeroallergen in weaning rats and longstanding disease, in a sensitisation-tolerant and easily tolerisable rodent strain, George Guibas, Evangelia Spandou, Spyridon Megremis, Peter West, Nikolaos Papadopoulos, PD35 Bacterial and fungi exposure in school and allergic sensitisation in children, João Cavaleiro Rufo, Joana Madureira, Inês Paciência, Lívia Aguiar, Patrícia Padrão, Mariana Pinto, Luís Delgado, Pedro Moreira, João Paulo Teixeira, Eduardo Oliveira Fernandes, André Moreira, PD36 Comparative study of allergy rhinitis between two populations: children vs. adults, Adriana Izquierdo Dominguez, Antonio Valero, Joaquim Mullol, Alfonso Del Cuvillo, Javier Montoro, Ignacio Jauregui, Joan Bartra, Ignacio Davila, Marta Ferrer, Joaquin Sastre, POSTER VIEWING SESSION 1: Inflammation—Genetics—Immunology—Dermatology (PP01–PP09), PP01 Immune profile in late pregnancy: immunological markers in atopic asthmaticwomen as risk factors for atopy in the progeny, Catarina Martins, Jorge Lima, Maria José Leandro, Glória Nunes, Jorge Cunha Branco, Hélder Trindade, Luis Miguel Borrego, PP02 The impact of neonatal sepsis on development of allergic diseases, Secil Conkar, Mehtap Kilic, Canan Aygun, Recep Sancak, PP03 Clinical overview of selective IgE deficiency in childhood, Athina Papadopoulou, Eleni Tagalaki, Lambros Banos, Anna Vlachou, Fotini Giannoula, Despina Mermiri, PP04 Inverse relationship between serum 25(ΟΗ) vitamin D3 and total IgE in children and adolescence, Athina Papadopoulou, Stavroula Lampidi, Marina Pavlakou, Maria Kryoni, Kostas Makris, PP05, PP06, PP07 Asthma control questionnaire and specific IgE in children, Snezhina Lazova, Guergana Petrova, Dimitrinka Miteva, Penka Perenovska, PP08 Features of chronic urticaria of adolescents, Aliya Klyucharova, Olesya Skorohodkina, PP09 Cutaneous mastocytosis in children: a clinical analysis of 8 cases in Greece, Dimitra Koumaki, Alkisti Manousaki, Maria Agrapidi, Lida Iatridou, Omima Eruk, Konstantinos Myridakis, Emmanouil Manousakis, Vasiliki Koumaki, POSTER VIEWING SESSION 2: Food allergy—Anaphylaxis (PP10–PP47), PP10 Prognostic factors in egg allergy, Maria Dimou, Maria Ingemansson, Gunilla Hedlin, PP11 Evaluation of the efficacy of an amino acid-based formula in infants who are intolerant to extensively hydrolysed protein formula, Nitida Pastor, Delphine de Boissieu, Jon Vanderhoof, Nancy Moore, Kaitlin Maditz, PP12 Anaphylaxis and epinephrine auto-injector use: a survey of pediatric trainees, Adeli Mehdi, Shaza Elhassan, Carolin Beck, Ahmed Al-Hammadi, PP13 Anaphylaxis in children: acute management in the Emergency Department, Ioana Maris, Ronan O’Sullivan, Jonathan Hourihane,, PP14 Understanding Cumbrian schools preparedness in managing children at risk of anaphylaxis in order to provide training and support which will create healthy and safe environments for children with allergies, George Raptis, Louise Michaelis, PP15 A new valid and reliable parent and child questionnaire to measure the impact of food protein enterocolitis syndrome on children: the FPIES Quality of Life Questionnaire (FPIESQL), Parent and Child Short Form, Audrey DunnGalvin, Matthew Greenhawt, Carina Venter, Jonathan Hourihane, PP16 An in-depth case study investigation of the experiences of teenagers and young adults in growing up and living with food allergy with emphasis on coping, management and risk, support, and social and self-identity, Evelyn O’Regan, Duncan Cronin, Jonathan Hourihane, Anna O’Reilly, Audrey DunnGalvin, PP17 Cow’s milk protein allergy in Constantine. A retrospective study of 62 cases between 1996 and 2013, Foued Abdelaziz, Dounia Khelifi-Touhami, Nihad Selim, Tahar Khelifi-Touhami, PP18, PP19 Cow’s milk and egg oral immunotherapy in children older than 5 years, Pablo Merida, Ana Mª Plaza, Juan Heber Castellanos, Adrianna Machinena, Montserrat Alvaro Lozano, Jaime Lozano, Olga Dominguez, Monica Piquer, Rosa Jimenez, Mª Teresa Giner, PP20 Professionals’ awareness of management of Cow’s Milk Protein Allergy (CMPA) in North Wales Hospitals, Konstantinos Kakleas, Manohar Joishy, Wendmu Maskele, Huw R. Jenkins, PP21, PP22 Anaphylaxis: the great unknown for teachers. Presentation of a protocol for schools, Mercedes Escarrer, Agustín Madroñero, Maria Teresa Guerra, Juan Carlos Julia, Juan Carlos Cerda, Javier Contreras, Eulalia Tauler, Maria Jesus Vidorreta, Ana Rojo, Silvia Del Valle, PP23 Challenges facing children with food allergies and their parents in out of school activity sectors, Niamh Flynn, PP24 A review of food challenges at a Regional Irish Centre, Gary Foley, Carol Harmon, John Fitzsimons, PP25 The use of epinephrine in infants with anaphylaxis, Krasimira Baynova, Ávila Maria Del Robledo, Labella Marina, PP26, PP27, PP28 Mother’s psychological state predicts the expression of symptoms in food allergic children, Aaron Cortes, Alicia Sciaraffia, Angela Castillo, PP29 The correlation between sIgE towards tree nuts and birch pollen in a Danish Pediatric Allergy Clinic, Nanna Juel-Berg, Kirsten Skamstrup Hansen, Lars Kærgaard Poulsen, PP30 Food allergy in children: evaluation of parents’ use of online social media, Andreia Florina Nita, Ioana Valentina Nenciu, Adina Lazar, Dumitru Oraseanu, PP31 The impact of food allergy on quality of life: FAQLQ questionnaire, Rita Aguiar, Anabela Lopes, Maria J. Paes, Amélia S. Santos, M. A. Pereira-Barbosa, PP32 An unexpected cause of anaphylaxis: potato, Hatice Eke Gungor, Salih Uytun, Umit Murat Sahiner, Yasemin Altuner Torun, PP33 Is it clinical phenotype of allergic diseases determined by sensitisation to food?, Mirjana Zivanovic, Marina Atanasković-Marković, PP34, PP35 Prescribing adrenaline auto-injectors in children in 2014: the data from regional pediatricians, Tina Vesel, Mihaela Nahtigal, Andreja Obermayer-Temlin, Eva Šoster Križnik, Mirjana Maslar, Ruben Bizjak, Marjeta Tomšič-Matic, Sonja Posega-Devetak, Maja Skerbinjek-Kavalar, Mateja Predalič, Tadej Avčin, PP36 Who should have an adrenaline autoinjector? Adherence to the European and French guidelines among 121 allergists from the Allergy Vigilance Network, Guillaume Pouessel, Etienne Beaudouin, Anne M. Moneret-Vautrin, Antoine Deschildre, Allergy Vigilance Network, PP37 Anaphylaxis by Anacardium Occidentale, Marta Viñas, Bartolomé Borja, Nora Hernández, Mª José Castillo, Adriana Izquierdo, Marcel Ibero, PP38 Anaphylaxis with honey in a child, S. Tolga Yavuz, Ali Gungor, Betul Buyuktiryaki, Ozan Koc, Can Naci Kocabas, Faysal Gok, PP39 Evaluation of courses adopted to children on prevention, recognition and management of anaphylaxis, Tina Vesel, Mihaela Nahtigal, PP40 Symptomatic dust mites and shrimp allergy: three pediatric case reports, Filipa Almeida, Susana Lopes, Cristina Madureira, Tânia Lopes, Fernanda Carvalho, PP41 Poor identification rates of nuts by high risk individuals: a call for improved education and support for families, Camille Heming, Emily Garrett, Adam Blackstock, Santanu Maity, Rahul Chodhari, PP42 DAFALL: database of food allergies in the Czech Republic, Simona Belohlavkova, Eliska Kopelentova, Petr Visek, Ivana Setinova, Ivana Svarcova, PP43 Serological cross-reactivity between grass and wheat is not only caused by profilins and CCDs, Sigrid Sjölander, Nora Nilsson, Malin Berthold, Helena Ekoff, Gunilla Hedlin, Magnus Borres, Caroline Nilsson, PP44 Oil body associated proteins in children with nuts allergy. Allergens to consider in IgE-mediated nuts allergy, Loreto González Domínguez, Cristina Muñoz Archidona, Ana Moreira Jorge, Sergio Quevedo Teruel, Teresa Bracamonte Bermejo, Miriam Castillo Fernández, Fernando Pineda de la Losa, Luis Ángel Echeverría Zudaire, PP45, PP46 Protective effect of helicobacter pylori infection against food allergy in children, Olga Vrani, Antigone Mavroudi, Maria Fotoulaki, Maria Emporiadou, Kleomenis Spiroglou, Ioannis Xinias, PP47 Anaphylaxis pathway: A road tryp-tase to success?, Helyeh A. Sadreddini, Mia Warnes, Donna Traves, POSTER VIEWING SESSION 3: Miscell

Global age-sex-specific mortality, life expectancy, and population estimates in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1950–2021, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BackgroundEstimates of demographic metrics are crucial to assess levels and trends of population health outcomes. The profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on populations worldwide has underscored the need for timely estimates to understand this unprecedented event within the context of long-term population health trends. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 provides new demographic estimates for 204 countries and territories and 811 additional subnational locations from 1950 to 2021, with a particular emphasis on changes in mortality and life expectancy that occurred during the 2020–21 COVID-19 pandemic period.Methods22 223 data sources from vital registration, sample registration, surveys, censuses, and other sources were used to estimate mortality, with a subset of these sources used exclusively to estimate excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic. 2026 data sources were used for population estimation. Additional sources were used to estimate migration; the effects of the HIV epidemic; and demographic discontinuities due to conflicts, famines, natural disasters, and pandemics, which are used as inputs for estimating mortality and population. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate under-5 mortality rates, which synthesised 30 763 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 1365 surveys and censuses, and 80 other sources. ST-GPR was also used to estimate adult mortality (between ages 15 and 59 years) based on information from 31 642 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 355 surveys and censuses, and 24 other sources. Estimates of child and adult mortality rates were then used to generate life tables with a relational model life table system. For countries with large HIV epidemics, life tables were adjusted using independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated via an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, and other data sources. Excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021 was determined by subtracting observed all-cause mortality (adjusted for late registration and mortality anomalies) from the mortality expected in the absence of the pandemic. Expected mortality was calculated based on historical trends using an ensemble of models. In location-years where all-cause mortality data were unavailable, we estimated excess mortality rates using a regression model with covariates pertaining to the pandemic. Population size was computed using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model. Life expectancy was calculated using age-specific mortality rates and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered values from a 1000-draw posterior distribution.FindingsGlobal all-cause mortality followed two distinct patterns over the study period: age-standardised mortality rates declined between 1950 and 2019 (a 62·8% [95% UI 60·5–65·1] decline), and increased during the COVID-19 pandemic period (2020–21; 5·1% [0·9–9·6] increase). In contrast with the overall reverse in mortality trends during the pandemic period, child mortality continued to decline, with 4·66 million (3·98–5·50) global deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2021 compared with 5·21 million (4·50–6·01) in 2019. An estimated 131 million (126–137) people died globally from all causes in 2020 and 2021 combined, of which 15·9 million (14·7–17·2) were due to the COVID-19 pandemic (measured by excess mortality, which includes deaths directly due to SARS-CoV-2 infection and those indirectly due to other social, economic, or behavioural changes associated with the pandemic). Excess mortality rates exceeded 150 deaths per 100 000 population during at least one year of the pandemic in 80 countries and territories, whereas 20 nations had a negative excess mortality rate in 2020 or 2021, indicating that all-cause mortality in these countries was lower during the pandemic than expected based on historical trends. Between 1950 and 2021, global life expectancy at birth increased by 22·7 years (20·8–24·8), from 49·0 years (46·7–51·3) to 71·7 years (70·9–72·5). Global life expectancy at birth declined by 1·6 years (1·0–2·2) between 2019 and 2021, reversing historical trends. An increase in life expectancy was only observed in 32 (15·7%) of 204 countries and territories between 2019 and 2021. The global population reached 7·89 billion (7·67–8·13) people in 2021, by which time 56 of 204 countries and territories had peaked and subsequently populations have declined. The largest proportion of population growth between 2020 and 2021 was in sub-Saharan Africa (39·5% [28·4–52·7]) and south Asia (26·3% [9·0–44·7]). From 2000 to 2021, the ratio of the population aged 65 years and older to the population aged younger than 15 years increased in 188 (92·2%) of 204 nations.InterpretationGlobal adult mortality rates markedly increased during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021, reversing past decreasing trends, while child mortality rates continued to decline, albeit more slowly than in earlier years. Although COVID-19 had a substantial impact on many demographic indicators during the first 2 years of the pandemic, overall global health progress over the 72 years evaluated has been profound, with considerable improvements in mortality and life expectancy. Additionally, we observed a deceleration of global population growth since 2017, despite steady or increasing growth in lower-income countries, combined with a continued global shift of population age structures towards older ages. These demographic changes will likely present future challenges to health systems, economies, and societies. The comprehensive demographic estimates reported here will enable researchers, policy makers, health practitioners, and other key stakeholders to better understand and address the profound changes that have occurred in the global health landscape following the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, and longer-term trends beyond the pandemic