Randomness and Inference in Medical and Public Health Research

Background: The purpose of this study was to provide a basis for describing the types of randomness used and statistical inferences reported in the medical and public health research literature. Methods: A study was conducted to quantify the types of research designs and analyses used and reported in medical and public health research studies. A stratified random sample of 198 articles from three top-tier medical and public health journals was reviewed, and the presence or absence of random assignment, random sampling, p-values, and confidence intervals, as well as type of research design, were quantified. Results: Random sampling was used in 58 (29.3%) and random assignment in 21 (10.6%) articles. Most (n=125; 63.1%) research studies did not report random assignment or random sampling; however, statistical inference was applied in more than 90%. Conclusions: Results revealed a concerning overuse of statistical inference. Incorrectly applying statistical inference when not warranted has potentially damaging medical and public health consequences. Researchers should carefully consider the appropriateness of using statistical inference in medical and public health research. Key words: randomization, statistical inference, research desig

Very Small p-values

Letter to the editor regarding an article by Hartz et al1 published in JAMA Psychiatry

Age-Adjusted US Cancer Death Rate Predictions

The likelihood of developing cancer during one\u27s lifetime isapproximately one in two for men and one in three for women in theUnited States. Cancer is the second-leading cause of death andaccounts for one in every four deaths. Evidence-based policyplanning and decision making by cancer researchers and public healthadministrators are best accomplished with up-to-date age-adjustedsite-specific cancer death rates. Because of the 3-year lag inreporting, forecasting methodology is employed here to estimate thecurrent year\u27s rates based on complete observed death data upthrough three years prior to the current year. The authors expandthe State Space Model (SSM) statistical methodology currently in useby the American Cancer Society (ACS) to predict age-adjusted cancerdeath rates for the current year. These predictions are comparedwith those from the previous Proc Forecast ACS method and resultssuggest the expanded SSM performs well

Impact of opioid-free analgesia on pain severity and patient satisfaction after discharge from surgery: multispecialty, prospective cohort study in 25 countries

Background: Balancing opioid stewardship and the need for adequate analgesia following discharge after surgery is challenging. This study aimed to compare the outcomes for patients discharged with opioid versus opioid-free analgesia after common surgical procedures.Methods: This international, multicentre, prospective cohort study collected data from patients undergoing common acute and elective general surgical, urological, gynaecological, and orthopaedic procedures. The primary outcomes were patient-reported time in severe pain measured on a numerical analogue scale from 0 to 100% and patient-reported satisfaction with pain relief during the first week following discharge. Data were collected by in-hospital chart review and patient telephone interview 1 week after discharge.Results: The study recruited 4273 patients from 144 centres in 25 countries; 1311 patients (30.7%) were prescribed opioid analgesia at discharge. Patients reported being in severe pain for 10 (i.q.r. 1-30)% of the first week after discharge and rated satisfaction with analgesia as 90 (i.q.r. 80-100) of 100. After adjustment for confounders, opioid analgesia on discharge was independently associated with increased pain severity (risk ratio 1.52, 95% c.i. 1.31 to 1.76; P < 0.001) and re-presentation to healthcare providers owing to side-effects of medication (OR 2.38, 95% c.i. 1.36 to 4.17; P = 0.004), but not with satisfaction with analgesia (beta coefficient 0.92, 95% c.i. -1.52 to 3.36; P = 0.468) compared with opioid-free analgesia. Although opioid prescribing varied greatly between high-income and low- and middle-income countries, patient-reported outcomes did not.Conclusion: Opioid analgesia prescription on surgical discharge is associated with a higher risk of re-presentation owing to side-effects of medication and increased patient-reported pain, but not with changes in patient-reported satisfaction. Opioid-free discharge analgesia should be adopted routinely

Effect of angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor and angiotensin receptor blocker initiation on organ support-free days in patients hospitalized with COVID-19

IMPORTANCE Overactivation of the renin-angiotensin system (RAS) may contribute to poor clinical outcomes in patients with COVID-19. Objective To determine whether angiotensin-converting enzyme (ACE) inhibitor or angiotensin receptor blocker (ARB) initiation improves outcomes in patients hospitalized for COVID-19. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS In an ongoing, adaptive platform randomized clinical trial, 721 critically ill and 58 non–critically ill hospitalized adults were randomized to receive an RAS inhibitor or control between March 16, 2021, and February 25, 2022, at 69 sites in 7 countries (final follow-up on June 1, 2022). INTERVENTIONS Patients were randomized to receive open-label initiation of an ACE inhibitor (n = 257), ARB (n = 248), ARB in combination with DMX-200 (a chemokine receptor-2 inhibitor; n = 10), or no RAS inhibitor (control; n = 264) for up to 10 days. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES The primary outcome was organ support–free days, a composite of hospital survival and days alive without cardiovascular or respiratory organ support through 21 days. The primary analysis was a bayesian cumulative logistic model. Odds ratios (ORs) greater than 1 represent improved outcomes. RESULTS On February 25, 2022, enrollment was discontinued due to safety concerns. Among 679 critically ill patients with available primary outcome data, the median age was 56 years and 239 participants (35.2%) were women. Median (IQR) organ support–free days among critically ill patients was 10 (–1 to 16) in the ACE inhibitor group (n = 231), 8 (–1 to 17) in the ARB group (n = 217), and 12 (0 to 17) in the control group (n = 231) (median adjusted odds ratios of 0.77 [95% bayesian credible interval, 0.58-1.06] for improvement for ACE inhibitor and 0.76 [95% credible interval, 0.56-1.05] for ARB compared with control). The posterior probabilities that ACE inhibitors and ARBs worsened organ support–free days compared with control were 94.9% and 95.4%, respectively. Hospital survival occurred in 166 of 231 critically ill participants (71.9%) in the ACE inhibitor group, 152 of 217 (70.0%) in the ARB group, and 182 of 231 (78.8%) in the control group (posterior probabilities that ACE inhibitor and ARB worsened hospital survival compared with control were 95.3% and 98.1%, respectively). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE In this trial, among critically ill adults with COVID-19, initiation of an ACE inhibitor or ARB did not improve, and likely worsened, clinical outcomes. TRIAL REGISTRATION ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT0273570

Molecular profiling: a case of zbtb16-rara acute promyelocytic leukemia

Several variant RARA translocations have been reported in acute promyelocytic leukemia (APL) of which the t(11;17)(q23;q21), which results in a ZBTB16-RARA fusion, is the most widely identified and is largely resistant to therapy with all-trans retinoic acid (ATRA). The clinical course together with the cytogenetic and molecular characterization of a case of ATRA-unresponsive ZBTB16-RARA APL is described. Additional mutations potentially cooperating with the translocation fusion product in leukemogenesis have been hitherto unreported in ZBTB16-RARA APL and were sought by application of a next-generation sequencing approach to detect those recurrently found inmyeloid malignancies. This technique identified a solitary, low level mutation in the CEBPA gene. Molecular profiling of additional mutations may provide a platform to individualise therapeutic management in patients with this rare form of APL

Molecular profiling: a case of zbtb16-rara acute promyelocytic leukemia

Several variant RARA translocations have been reported in acute promyelocytic leukemia (APL) of which the t(11;17)(q23;q21), which results in a ZBTB16-RARA fusion, is the most widely identified and is largely resistant to therapy with all-trans retinoic acid (ATRA). The clinical course together with the cytogenetic and molecular characterization of a case of ATRA-unresponsive ZBTB16-RARA APL is described. Additional mutations potentially cooperating with the translocation fusion product in leukemogenesis have been hitherto unreported in ZBTB16-RARA APL and were sought by application of a next-generation sequencing approach to detect those recurrently found inmyeloid malignancies. This technique identified a solitary, low level mutation in the CEBPA gene. Molecular profiling of additional mutations may provide a platform to individualise therapeutic management in patients with this rare form of APL

Molecular profiling: a case of zbtb16-rara acute promyelocytic leukemia

Several variant RARA translocations have been reported in acute promyelocytic leukemia (APL) of which the t(11;17)(q23;q21), which results in a ZBTB16-RARA fusion, is the most widely identified and is largely resistant to therapy with all-trans retinoic acid (ATRA). The clinical course together with the cytogenetic and molecular characterization of a case of ATRA-unresponsive ZBTB16-RARA APL is described. Additional mutations potentially cooperating with the translocation fusion product in leukemogenesis have been hitherto unreported in ZBTB16-RARA APL and were sought by application of a next-generation sequencing approach to detect those recurrently found inmyeloid malignancies. This technique identified a solitary, low level mutation in the CEBPA gene. Molecular profiling of additional mutations may provide a platform to individualise therapeutic management in patients with this rare form of APL