From Old Labour to New Labour: a comment on Rubinstein

In a critique of our book New Labour, David Rubinstein has argued that we exaggerate the degree of difference between Old and New Labour and underplay the similarities. In this article we agree with many of the continuities that Rubinstein outlines. However, we argue that he himself gives plenty of evidence in favour of our thesis that change has been marked in many policy areas. We argue that we give a good account of the wider social factors that he says accounts for such change. In this article we offer a restatement of the view that New Labour offers a `post-Thatcherite politics. New Labour breaks both with post-war social democracy and with Thatcherism

Mapping Routine Measles Vaccination in Low- and Middle-Income Countries

The safe, highly effective measles vaccine has been recommended globally since 1974, yet in 2017 there were more than 17 million cases of measles and 83,400 deaths in children under 5 years old, and more than 99% of both occurred in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Globally comparable, annual, local estimates of routine first-dose measles-containing vaccine (MCV1) coverage are critical for understanding geographically precise immunity patterns, progress towards the targets of the Global Vaccine Action Plan (GVAP), and high-risk areas amid disruptions to vaccination programmes caused by coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Here we generated annual estimates of routine childhood MCV1 coverage at 5 × 5-km2 pixel and second administrative levels from 2000 to 2019 in 101 LMICs, quantified geographical inequality and assessed vaccination status by geographical remoteness. After widespread MCV1 gains from 2000 to 2010, coverage regressed in more than half of the districts between 2010 and 2019, leaving many LMICs far from the GVAP goal of 80% coverage in all districts by 2019. MCV1 coverage was lower in rural than in urban locations, although a larger proportion of unvaccinated children overall lived in urban locations; strategies to provide essential vaccination services should address both geographical contexts. These results provide a tool for decision-makers to strengthen routine MCV1 immunization programmes and provide equitable disease protection for all children

Nets, Spray or Both? The Effectiveness of Insecticide-Treated Nets and Indoor Residual Spraying in Reducing Malaria Morbidity and Child Mortality in sub-Saharan Africa.

Malaria control programmes currently face the challenge of maintaining, as well as accelerating, the progress made against malaria with fewer resources and uncertain funding. There is a critical need to determine what combination of malaria interventions confers the greatest protection against malaria morbidity and child mortality under routine conditions. This study assesses intervention effectiveness experienced by children under the age of five exposed to both insecticide-treated nets (ITNs) and indoor residual spraying (IRS), as compared to each intervention alone, based on nationally representative survey data collected from 17 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. Living in households with both ITNs and IRS was associated with a significant risk reduction against parasitaemia in medium and high transmission areas, 53% (95% CI 37% to 67%) and 31% (95% CI 11% to 47%) respectively. For medium transmission areas, an additional 36% (95% CI 7% to 53%) protection was garnered by having both interventions compared with exposure to only ITNs or only IRS. Having both ITNs and IRS was not significantly more protective against parasitaemia than either intervention alone in low and high malaria transmission areas. In rural and urban areas, exposure to both interventions provided significant protection against parasitaemia, 57% (95% CI 48% to 65%) and 39% (95% CI 10% to 61%) respectively; however, this effect was not significantly greater than having a singular intervention. Statistically, risk for all-cause child mortality was not significantly reduced by having both ITNs and IRS, and no additional protectiveness was detected for having dual intervention coverage over a singular intervention. These findings suggest that greater reductions in malaria morbidity and health gains for children may be achieved with ITNs and IRS combined beyond the protection offered by IRS or ITNs alone

Design considerations and analysis planning of a phase 2a proof of concept study in rheumatoid arthritis in the presence of possible non-monotonicity

BACKGROUND: It is important to quantify the dose response for a drug in phase 2a clinical trials so the optimal doses can then be selected for subsequent late phase trials. In a phase 2a clinical trial of new lead drug being developed for the treatment of rheumatoid arthritis (RA), a U-shaped dose response curve was observed. In the light of this result further research was undertaken to design an efficient phase 2a proof of concept (PoC) trial for a follow-on compound using the lessons learnt from the lead compound. METHODS: The planned analysis for the Phase 2a trial for GSK123456 was a Bayesian Emax model which assumes the dose-response relationship follows a monotonic sigmoid "S" shaped curve. This model was found to be suboptimal to model the U-shaped dose response observed in the data from this trial and alternatives approaches were needed to be considered for the next compound for which a Normal dynamic linear model (NDLM) is proposed. This paper compares the statistical properties of the Bayesian Emax model and NDLM model and both models are evaluated using simulation in the context of adaptive Phase 2a PoC design under a variety of assumed dose response curves: linear, Emax model, U-shaped model, and flat response. RESULTS: It is shown that the NDLM method is flexible and can handle a wide variety of dose-responses, including monotonic and non-monotonic relationships. In comparison to the NDLM model the Emax model excelled with higher probability of selecting ED90 and smaller average sample size, when the true dose response followed Emax like curve. In addition, the type I error, probability of incorrectly concluding a drug may work when it does not, is inflated with the Bayesian NDLM model in all scenarios which would represent a development risk to pharmaceutical company. The bias, which is the difference between the estimated effect from the Emax and NDLM models and the simulated value, is comparable if the true dose response follows a placebo like curve, an Emax like curve, or log linear shape curve under fixed dose allocation, no adaptive allocation, half adaptive and adaptive scenarios. The bias though is significantly increased for the Emax model if the true dose response follows a U-shaped curve. CONCLUSIONS: In most cases the Bayesian Emax model works effectively and efficiently, with low bias and good probability of success in case of monotonic dose response. However, if there is a belief that the dose response could be non-monotonic then the NDLM is the superior model to assess the dose response

The Third wave in globalization theory

This essay examines a proposition made in the literature that there are three waves in globalization theory—the globalist, skeptical, and postskeptical or transformational waves—and argues that this division requires a new look. The essay is a critique of the third of these waves and its relationship with the second wave. Contributors to the third wave not only defend the idea of globalization from criticism by the skeptics but also try to construct a more complex and qualified theory of globalization than provided by first-wave accounts. The argument made here is that third-wave authors come to conclusions that try to defend globalization yet include qualifications that in practice reaffirm skeptical claims. This feature of the literature has been overlooked in debates and the aim of this essay is to revisit the literature and identify as well as discuss this problem. Such a presentation has political implications. Third wavers propose globalist cosmopolitan democracy when the substance of their arguments does more in practice to bolster the skeptical view of politics based on inequality and conflict, nation-states and regional blocs, and alliances of common interest or ideology rather than cosmopolitan global structures

Multidrug-Resistant Plasmodium vivax Associated with Severe and Fatal Malaria: A Prospective Study in Papua, Indonesia

Ric Price and colleagues present data from southern Papua, Indonesia, suggesting that malaria resulting from infection withPlasmodium vivax is associated with substantial morbidity and mortality

TGFbeta induces apoptosis and EMT in primary mouse hepatocytes independently of p53, p21Cip1 or Rb status

Melville Trust for the Care and Cure of Cancer to SP and SS.Background: TGF beta has pleiotropic effects that range from regulation of proliferation and apoptosis to morphological changes and epithelial-mesenchymal transition (EMT). Some evidence suggests that these effects may be interconnected. We have recently reported that P53, P21(Cip1) and pRB, three critical regulators of the G1/S transition are variably involved in TGF beta-induced cell cycle arrest in hepatocytes. As these proteins are also involved in the regulation of apoptosis in many circumstances, we investigated their contribution to other relevant TGF beta-induced effects, namely apoptosis and EMT, and examined how the various processes were interrelated. Methods: Primary mouse hepatocytes deficient in p53, p21 and/or Rb, singly or in combination were treated with TGF beta for 24 to 96 hours. Apoptosis was quantified according to morphology and by immunostaining for cleavedcapsase 3. Epithelial and mesenchymal marker expression was studied using immunocytochemistry and real time PCR. Results: We found that TGF beta similarly induced morphological changes regardless of genotype and independently of proliferation index or sensitivity to inhibition of proliferation by TGF beta. Morphological changes were accompanied by decrease in E-cadherin and increased Snail expression but the mesenchymal markers (N-cadherin, SMA alpha and Vimentin) studied remained unchanged. TGF beta induced high levels of apoptosis in p53-/-, Rb-/-, p21(cip1)-/- and control hepatocytes although with slight differences in kinetics. This was unrelated to proliferation or changes in morphology and loss of cell-cell adhesion. However, hepatocytes deficient in both p53 and p21(cip1)were less sensitive to TGF beta-induced apoptosis. Conclusion: Although p53, p21(Cip1) and pRb are well known regulators of both proliferation and apoptosis in response to a multitude of stresses, we conclude that they are critical for TGF beta-driven inhibition of hepatocytes proliferation, but only slightly modulate TGF beta-induced apoptosis. This effect may depend on other parameters such as proliferation and the presence of other regulatory proteins as suggested by the consequences of p53, p21(Cip1) double deficiency. Similarly, p53, p21(Cip1) and pRB deficiency had no effect on the morphological changes and loss of cell adhesion which is thought to be critical for metastasis. This indicates that possible association of these genes with metastasis potential would be unlikely to involve TGF beta-induced EMT.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe