Identifying uncertainties in Arctic climate change projections

Wide ranging climate changes are expected in the Arctic by the end of the 21st century, but projections of the size of these changes vary widely across current global climate models. This variation represents a large source of uncertainty in our understanding of the evolution of Arctic climate. Here we systematically quantify and assess the model uncertainty in Arctic climate changes in two CO2 doubling experiments: a multimodel ensemble (CMIP3) and an ensemble constructed using a single model (HadCM3) with multiple parameter perturbations (THC-QUMP). These two ensembles allow us to assess the contribution that both structural and parameter variations across models make to the total uncertainty and to begin to attribute sources of uncertainty in projected changes. We find that parameter uncertainty is an major source of uncertainty in certain aspects of Arctic climate. But also that uncertainties in the mean climate state in the 20th century, most notably in the northward Atlantic ocean heat transport and Arctic sea ice volume, are a significant source of uncertainty for projections of future Arctic change. We suggest that better observational constraints on these quantities will lead to significant improvements in the precision of projections of future Arctic climate change

Measuring our universe from galaxy redshift surveys

Galaxy redshift surveys have achieved significant progress over the last couple of decades. Those surveys tell us in the most straightforward way what our local universe looks like. While the galaxy distribution traces the bright side of the universe, detailed quantitative analyses of the data have even revealed the dark side of the universe dominated by non-baryonic dark matter as well as more mysterious dark energy (or Einstein's cosmological constant). We describe several methodologies of using galaxy redshift surveys as cosmological probes, and then summarize the recent results from the existing surveys. Finally we present our views on the future of redshift surveys in the era of Precision Cosmology.Comment: 82 pages, 31 figures, invited review article published in Living Reviews in Relativity, http://www.livingreviews.org/lrr-2004-

Bayesian calibration, validation and uncertainty quantification for predictive modelling of tumour growth: a tutorial

In this work we present a pedagogical tumour growth example, in which we apply calibration and validation techniques to an uncertain, Gompertzian model of tumour spheroid growth. The key contribution of this article is the discussion and application of these methods (that are not commonly employed in the field of cancer modelling) in the context of a simple model, whose deterministic analogue is widely known within the community. In the course of the example we calibrate the model against experimental data that is subject to measurement errors, and then validate the resulting uncertain model predictions. We then analyse the sensitivity of the model predictions to the underlying measurement model. Finally, we propose an elementary learning approach for tuning a threshold parameter in the validation procedure in order to maximize predictive accuracy of our validated model

Defining the expression hierarchy of latent T-cell epitopes in Epstein-Barr virus infection with TCR-like antibodies

Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) is a gamma herpesvirus that causes a life-long latent infection in human hosts. The latent gene products LMP1, LMP2A and EBNA1 are expressed by EBV-associated tumors and peptide epitopes derived from these can be targeted by CD8 Cytotoxic T-Lymphocyte (CTL) lines. Whilst CTL-based methodologies can be utilized to infer the presence of specific latent epitopes, they do not allow a direct visualization or quantitation of these epitopes. Here, we describe the characterization of three TCR-like monoclonal antibodies (mAbs) targeting the latent epitopes LMP1[subscript 125–133], LMP2A[subscript 426–434] or EBNA1[subscript 562–570] in association with HLA-A0201. These are employed to map the expression hierarchy of endogenously generated EBV epitopes. The dominance of EBNA1[subscript 562–570] in association with HLA-A0201 was consistently observed in cell lines and EBV-associated tumor biopsies. These data highlight the discordance between MHC-epitope density and frequencies of associated CTL with implications for cell-based immunotherapies and/or vaccines for EBV-associated disease

Current warming will reduce yields unless maize breeding and seed systems adapt immediately

The development of crop varieties that are better suited to new climatic conditions is vital for future food production1, 2. Increases in mean temperature accelerate crop development, resulting in shorter crop durations and reduced time to accumulate biomass and yield3, 4. The process of breeding, delivery and adoption (BDA) of new maize varieties can take up to 30 years. Here, we assess for the first time the implications of warming during the BDA process by using five bias-corrected global climate models and four representative concentration pathways with realistic scenarios of maize BDA times in Africa. The results show that the projected difference in temperature between the start and end of the maize BDA cycle results in shorter crop durations that are outside current variability. Both adaptation and mitigation can reduce duration loss. In particular, climate projections have the potential to provide target elevated temperatures for breeding. Whilst options for reducing BDA time are highly context dependent, common threads include improved recording and sharing of data across regions for the whole BDA cycle, streamlining of regulation, and capacity building. Finally, we show that the results have implications for maize across the tropics, where similar shortening of duration is projected

Pathogenetic mechanisms of amyloid A amyloidosis

Systemic amyloid A (AA) amyloidosis is a serious complication of chronic inflammation. Serum AA protein (SAA), an acute phase plasma protein, is deposited extracellularly as insoluble amyloid fibrils that damage tissue structure and function. Clinical AA amyloidosis is typically preceded by many years of active inflammation before presenting, most commonly with renal involvement. Using dose-dependent, doxycycline-inducible transgenic expression of SAA in mice, we show that AA amyloid deposition can occur independently of inflammation and that the time before amyloid deposition is determined by the circulating SAA concentration. High level SAA expression induced amyloidosis in all mice after a short, slightly variable delay. SAA was rapidly incorporated into amyloid, acutely reducing circulating SAA concentrations by up to 90%. Prolonged modest SAA overexpression occasionally produced amyloidosis after long delays and primed most mice for explosive amyloidosis when SAA production subsequently increased. Endogenous priming and bulk amyloid deposition are thus separable events, each sensitive to plasma SAA concentration. Amyloid deposits slowly regressed with restoration of normal SAA production after doxycycline withdrawal. Reinduction of SAA overproduction revealed that, following amyloid regression, all mice were primed, especially for rapid glomerular amyloid deposition leading to renal failure, closely resembling the rapid onset of renal failure in clinical AA amyloidosis following acute exacerbation of inflammation. Clinical AA amyloidosis rarely involves the heart, but amyloidotic SAA transgenic mice consistently had minor cardiac amyloid deposits, enabling us to extend to the heart the demonstrable efficacy of our unique antibody therapy for elimination of visceral amyloid

Isolation and characterization of pharmaceutical grade human pentraxins, serum amyloid P component and C-reactive protein, for clinical use.

The human pentraxin proteins, serum amyloid P component (SAP) and C-reactive protein (CRP) are important in routine clinical diagnosis, SAP for systemic amyloidosis and CRP for monitoring the non-specific acute phase response. They are also targets for novel therapies currently in development but their roles in health and disease are controversial. Thus, both for clinical use and to rigorously elucidate their functions, structurally and functionally intact, pharmaceutical grade preparations of the natural, authentic proteins are required. We report here the production from normal human donor plasma and the characterization of the first such preparations. Importantly, we demonstrate that, contrary to reports using recombinant proteins and less well characterized preparations, neither CRP nor SAP stimulate the release by human peripheral blood mononuclear cells in vitro of any TNFα, IL-6 or IL-8, nor does SAP cause release of IL-1β or IL-10. Furthermore neither of our preparations was pro-inflammatory in mice in vivo

Testing the Water–Energy Theory on American Palms (Arecaceae) Using Geographically Weighted Regression

Water and energy have emerged as the best contemporary environmental correlates of broad-scale species richness patterns. A corollary hypothesis of water–energy dynamics theory is that the influence of water decreases and the influence of energy increases with absolute latitude. We report the first use of geographically weighted regression for testing this hypothesis on a continuous species richness gradient that is entirely located within the tropics and subtropics. The dataset was divided into northern and southern hemispheric portions to test whether predictor shifts are more pronounced in the less oceanic northern hemisphere. American palms (Arecaceae, n = 547 spp.), whose species richness and distributions are known to respond strongly to water and energy, were used as a model group. The ability of water and energy to explain palm species richness was quantified locally at different spatial scales and regressed on latitude. Clear latitudinal trends in agreement with water–energy dynamics theory were found, but the results did not differ qualitatively between hemispheres. Strong inherent spatial autocorrelation in local modeling results and collinearity of water and energy variables were identified as important methodological challenges. We overcame these problems by using simultaneous autoregressive models and variation partitioning. Our results show that the ability of water and energy to explain species richness changes not only across large climatic gradients spanning tropical to temperate or arctic zones but also within megathermal climates, at least for strictly tropical taxa such as palms. This finding suggests that the predictor shifts are related to gradual latitudinal changes in ambient energy (related to solar flux input) rather than to abrupt transitions at specific latitudes, such as the occurrence of frost

Response of lymphocyte subsets and cytokines to Shenyang prescription in Sprague-Dawley rats with tongue squamous cell carcinomas induced by 4NQO

BACKGROUND: The study was designed to investigate immunocompetence in relation to cancer progression in rat and to assess the effect of the traditional Chinese anti-cancer medicine, "Shenyang" prescription, on immunity. METHODS: 4-Nitroquinoline-1-oxide (4NQO) was administered to 80 Sprague-Dawley (SD) rats via the drinking water for up to 36 weeks. Tongue squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) was confirmed by pathological examination in 61 rats. "Shenyang" prescription was administered to subgroups of these rats, and blood samples were taken before and after treatment. Lymphocyte subsets were determined by flow cytometry. Serum Th1 and Th2-type cytokines were assessed by an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. RESULTS: As the cancer progressed at the tongue root, the percentage of CD3+CD4+ T lymphocytes and NK cells and the levels of IFN-γ and IL-2 decreased gradually, while the percentage of CD3+CD8+ T lymphocytes and the levels of IL-4 and IL-10 increased. The CD4+/CD8+ ratios were lower in the cancer groups than in the control group. However, after administering "Shenyang" prescription, the levels of CD3+CD4+ T lymphocytes, NK cells, IFN-γ and IL-2 increased, while the CD3+CD8+ T lymphocyte counts and the levels of IL-4 and IL-10 decreased. CONCLUSION: 4NQO-induced lesions were good models for exploring oral cavity carcinogenesis. The rats with 4NQO-induced SCC demonstrated abnormalities in lymphocyte subsets and a shift from Th1-type to Th2-type, which were good models for assessing the effect of anticancer agent on immunity. Oral cancer progression was associated with an aggressive disturbance of immune function. "Shenyang" prescription has the ability to improve the disturbance of immune function

Jet energy measurement with the ATLAS detector in proton-proton collisions at root s=7 TeV

The jet energy scale and its systematic uncertainty are determined for jets measured with the ATLAS detector at the LHC in proton-proton collision data at a centre-of-mass energy of √s = 7TeV corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 38 pb-1. Jets are reconstructed with the anti-kt algorithm with distance parameters R=0. 4 or R=0. 6. Jet energy and angle corrections are determined from Monte Carlo simulations to calibrate jets with transverse momenta pT≥20 GeV and pseudorapidities {pipe}η{pipe}<4. 5. The jet energy systematic uncertainty is estimated using the single isolated hadron response measured in situ and in test-beams, exploiting the transverse momentum balance between central and forward jets in events with dijet topologies and studying systematic variations in Monte Carlo simulations. The jet energy uncertainty is less than 2. 5 % in the central calorimeter region ({pipe}η{pipe}<0. 8) for jets with 60≤pT<800 GeV, and is maximally 14 % for pT<30 GeV in the most forward region 3. 2≤{pipe}η{pipe}<4. 5. The jet energy is validated for jet transverse momenta up to 1 TeV to the level of a few percent using several in situ techniques by comparing a well-known reference such as the recoiling photon pT, the sum of the transverse momenta of tracks associated to the jet, or a system of low-pT jets recoiling against a high-pT jet. More sophisticated jet calibration schemes are presented based on calorimeter cell energy density weighting or hadronic properties of jets, aiming for an improved jet energy resolution and a reduced flavour dependence of the jet response. The systematic uncertainty of the jet energy determined from a combination of in situ techniques is consistent with the one derived from single hadron response measurements over a wide kinematic range. The nominal corrections and uncertainties are derived for isolated jets in an inclusive sample of high-pT jets. Special cases such as event topologies with close-by jets, or selections of samples with an enhanced content of jets originating from light quarks, heavy quarks or gluons are also discussed and the corresponding uncertainties are determined. © 2013 CERN for the benefit of the ATLAS collaboration