Some Methods for Assessing the Need for Non-linear Models in Business Cycle Analysis and Forecasting

There is a long tradition in business cycle analysis of arguing that non-linear models are needed to explain the business cycle. In recent years many non-linear models have been fitted to data on GDP for many countries, but particularly for the U.S. In this paper we set our criteria to evaluate the success of non-linear models in explaining the cycle and then evaluate three recent models in the light of these criteria. We find that the models are capable of explaining the "shape" of expansions, something linear models cannot do, but do so at the cost of making expansions longer than they should be and in producing transition probabilities to recessions that are too low.business cyles, non-linear models

Calm after the Storm?: Supply-side contributions to New Zealand’s GDP volatility decline

The variance of New Zealand’s real GDP has declined since the mid-1980s. To investigate why, this paper decomposes the variance of chain-weighted estimates of production-based real GDP growth into sector shares, sector growth rate variances and co-variances. The principal explanation for the decline in GDP volatility is a fall in the sum of sector variances driven by a decline in the Services and Manufacturing sector production growth variances. Sector co-variances have had a dominant influence on the profile of GDP volatility and this influence has not diminished. Despite marked changes in sector shares, notably increases in Services and Primary sector shares and a decrease in the share of Manufacturing, this has not been a significant factor influencing the decline in GDP volatility. We postulate that policy interventions such as “Think Big”, regulatory interventions during the early 1980s, and the introduction of GST are key explanations for the higher volatility until the mid 1980s. Cessation of these interventions, deregulation and possibly changes in inventory management methods are important reasons why GDP volatility has fallen since then.Volatility, growth, production sector shares, manufacturing, services, primary, construction.

Growth and volatility regime switching models for New Zealand GDP data

This paper fits hidden Markov switching models to New Zealand GDP data. A primary objective is to better understand the utility of these methods for modelling growth and volatility regimes present in the New Zealand data and their interaction. Properties of the models are developed together with a description of the estimation methods, including use of the Expectation Maximisation (EM) algorithm. The models are fitted to New Zealand GDP and production sector growth rates to analyse changes in their mean and volatility over time. The paper discusses applications of the methodology to identifying changes in growth performances, and examines the timing of growth and volatility regime switching between production sectors. Conclusions to emerge are that, in contrast to the 1980s, New Zealand GDP growth experienced an unusually long period of time in high growth and low volatility regimes during the 1990s. The paper evaluates sector contributions to this 1990s experience and discusses directions for further development.Hidden Markov models; regime switching; growth; business cycles; volatility; production sectors; GDP.

Creating Metacognitive Experiences During Written Communication: Positive Self-Talk Using the Thinking Mirror

Theoretically, when children see themselves in the thinking mirror and say positive thoughts to themselves about their communicative behaviors, they may activate a variety of cognitive events. Positive self-talk using the thinking mirror may act as a metacognitive experience triggering positive thoughts, feelings, and sensations that may contribute to children\u27s permanent metacognitive knowledge, clarify their cognitive goals, and initiate cognitive actions during written communication. Such positive experiences may strengthen children\u27s intrinsic motivation to communicate thoughts during subsequent writing and reading endeavors

A Covariant Approach To Ashtekar's Canonical Gravity

A Lorentz and general co-ordinate co-variant form of canonical gravity, using Ashtekar's variables, is investigated. A co-variant treatment due to Crnkovic and Witten is used, in which a point in phase space represents a solution of the equations of motion and a symplectic functional two form is constructed which is Lorentz and general co-ordinate invariant. The subtleties and difficulties due to the complex nature of Ashtekar's variables are addressed and resolved.Comment: 18 pages, Plain Te

Mathematical models for vulnerable plaques

A plaque is an accumulation and swelling in the artery walls and typically consists of cells, cell debris, lipids, calcium deposits and fibrous connective tissue. A person is likely to have many plaques inside his/her body even if they are healthy. However plaques may become "vulnerable", "high-risk" or "thrombosis-prone" if the person engages in a high-fat diet and does not exercise regularly. In this study group, we proposed two mathematical models to describe plaque growth and rupture. The first model is a mechanical one that approximately treats the plaque as an inflating elastic balloon. In this model, the pressure inside the core increases and then decreases suggesting that plaque stabilization and prevention of rupture is possible. The second model is a biochemical one that focuses on the role of MMPs in degrading the fibrous plaque cap. The cap stress, MMP concentration, plaque volume and cap thickness are coupled together in a system of phenomenological equations. The equations always predict an eventual rupture since the volume, stresses and MMP concentrations generally grow without bound. The main weakness of the model is that many of the important parameters that control the behavior of the plaque are unknown. The two simple models suggested by this group could serve as a springboard for more realistic theoretical studies. But most importantly, we hope they will motivate more experimental work to quantify some of the important mechanical and biochemical properties of vulnerable plaques

Factors Influencing First-Generation Students\u27 Ability To Obtain A Doctoral Degree In Clinical Psychology: An Intersectional Approach

Although first-generation college students aspire to obtain graduate education, we know they are less likely to earn these advanced degrees compared to their non-first-generation counterparts (Engle & Tinto, 2008). There are several identified reasons for this discrepancy including differences in social identity from their families, financial barriers, and lack of social support (Gardner & Holley, 2011; King, 2017; Michalski et al., 2011). For example, it has been described how, many of our families have difficulty understanding why anyone would go to school after finishing college (Cook-Morales et al., 1995). The first half of this symposium will provide insight and discussion on previous literature relative to first-generation students aspiring to obtain doctoral degrees in clinical psychology. Next, presenters will transition to a panel discussion with attendees regarding their roads to successfully being admitted into a clinical psychology Ph.D. program. Our objective is to present students with various pathways to achieving this goal and how we overcame certain challenges as first-generation students while acknowledging intersectional factors at play

The interferon-inducible antiviral protein Daxx is not essential for interferon-mediated protection against avian sarcoma virus

BACKGROUND: The antiviral protein Daxx acts as a restriction factor of avian sarcoma virus (ASV; Retroviridae) in mammalian cells by promoting epigenetic silencing of integrated proviral DNA. Although Daxx is encoded by a type I (α/β) interferon-stimulated gene, the requirement for Daxx in the interferon anti-retroviral response has not been elucidated. In this report, we describe the results of experiments designed to investigate the role of Daxx in the type I interferon-induced anti-ASV response. FINDINGS: Using an ASV reporter system, we show that type I interferons are potent inhibitors of ASV replication. We demonstrate that, while Daxx is necessary to silence ASV gene expression in the absence of interferons, type I interferons are fully-capable of inducing an antiviral state in the absence of Daxx. CONCLUSIONS: These results provide evidence that Daxx is not essential for the anti-ASV interferon response in mammalian cells, and that interferons deploy multiple, redundant antiviral mechanisms to protect cells from ASV