Day-Ahead Parametric Probabilistic Forecasting of Wind and Solar Power Generation using Bounded Probability Distributions and Hybrid Neural Networks

The penetration of renewable energy sources in modern power systems increases at an impressive rate. Due to their intermittent and uncertain nature, it is important to forecast their generation including its uncertainty. In this article, an ensemble artificial neural network is applied for day ahead solar and wind power generation parametric probabilistic forecasting. The proposed architecture includes two components: a sub-models component and a Meta-Learner component. The first component includes an ensemble of artificial neural networks that have the ability to estimate the parameters of an underlying probability distribution. The Meta-Learner is responsible for grouping the training samples based on the estimated level of generation, through a classification-clustering process and use the output of the corresponding sub-models to calculate the final parametric probabilistic estimation. The proposed model is compared to both parametric and non-parametric state of the art probabilistic techniques for solar and wind power generation forecasting, exhibiting superior performance.©2023 IEEE. Personal use of this material is permitted. Permission from IEEE must be obtained for all other uses, in any current or future media, including reprinting/republishing this material for advertising or promotional purposes, creating new collective works, for resale or redistribution to servers or lists, or reuse of any copyrighted component of this work in other works.fi=vertaisarvioitu|en=peerReviewed

Evolution of the Electricity Distribution Networks : Active Management Architecture Schemes and Microgrid Control Functionalities

The power system transition to smart grids brings challenges to electricity distribution network development since it involves several stakeholders and actors whose needs must be met to be successful for the electricity network upgrade. The technological challenges arise mainly from the various distributed energy resources (DERs) integration and use and network optimization and security. End-customers play a central role in future network operations. Understanding the network’s evolution through possible network operational scenarios could create a dedicated and reliable roadmap for the various stakeholders’ use. This paper presents a method to develop the evolving operational scenarios and related management schemes, including microgrid control functionalities, and analyzes the evolution of electricity distribution networks considering medium and low voltage grids. The analysis consists of the dynamic descriptions of network operations and the static illustrations of the relationships among classified actors. The method and analysis use an object-oriented and standardized software modeling language, the unified modeling language (UML). Operational descriptions for the four evolution phases of electricity distribution networks are defined and analyzed by Enterprise Architect, a UML tool. This analysis is followed by the active management architecture schemes with the microgrid control functionalities. The graphical models and analysis generated can be used for scenario building in roadmap development, real-time simulations, and management system development. The developed method, presented with high-level use cases (HL-UCs), can be further used to develop and analyze several parallel running control algorithms for DERs providing ancillary services (ASs) in the evolving electricity distribution networks.© 2021 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).fi=vertaisarvioitu|en=peerReviewed

Dynamic Restoration of Active Distribution Networks by Coordinated Repair Crew Dispatch and Cold Load Pickup

This article presents a dynamic restoration strategy for active distribution networks (ADNs) by coordinating repair crew dispatch and frequency-constrained cold load pickup. To incorporate the stochastic repair time, the repair crew dispatch is formulated as “event-driven” with the implementation of model predictive control (MPC). The stochastic repair time is estimated, convexified, and updated dynamically with each MPC execution. The finish of a repair task triggers the subsequent cold load pickup model, where the frequency dynamics are computed and linearly constrained with the help of a uniform frequency response model for low-inertia systems. Next, a co-optimization framework of the two models is developed to coordinate the repair crew dispatch and cold load pickup under a unified time scale. Numerical results on a modified IEEE 33-node test feeder and a real-world 136-node distribution system have verified the effectiveness of the proposed model.©2024 IEEE. Personal use of this material is permitted. Permission from IEEE must be obtained for all other uses, in any current or future media, including reprinting/republishing this material for advertising or promotional purposes, creating new collective works, for resale or redistribution to servers or lists, or reuse of any copyrighted component of this work in other works.fi=vertaisarvioitu|en=peerReviewed

Classifying resilience approaches for protecting smart grids against cyber threats

Smart grids (SG) draw the attention of cyber attackers due to their vulnerabilities, which are caused by the usage of heterogeneous communication technologies and their distributed nature. While preventing or detecting cyber attacks is a well-studied field of research, making SG more resilient against such threats is a challenging task. This paper provides a classification of the proposed cyber resilience methods against cyber attacks for SG. This classification includes a set of studies that propose cyber-resilient approaches to protect SG and related cyber-physical systems against unforeseen anomalies or deliberate attacks. Each study is briefly analyzed and is associated with the proper cyber resilience technique which is given by the National Institute of Standards and Technology in the Special Publication 800-160. These techniques are also linked to the different states of the typical resilience curve. Consequently, this paper highlights the most critical challenges for achieving cyber resilience, reveals significant cyber resilience aspects that have not been sufficiently considered yet and, finally, proposes scientific areas that should be further researched in order to enhance the cyber resilience of SG.Open Access funding provided thanks to the CRUE-CSIC agreement with Springer Nature. Funding for open access charge: Universidad de Málaga / CBUA

Multi-Area Frequency Restoration Reserve Sizing

Frequency Restoration Reserves are traditionally sized using deterministic methods. The constant growth in non-dispatchable renewable energy, however, is increasing the importance of probabilistic methods for reserve sizing. In addition, as the geographical scope of reserve sizing expands, overall power imbalance stochasticity is reduced. In this article, we propose a probabilistic method for shared cross-border frequency restoration reserve commitment and sizing, based on the concept of system generation margin and employing mathematical optimization. The aim is to reduce overall reserve volumes and costs. The cross-border interconnection capacities among countries are taken into account, and the shared uncertainty across interconnections is addressed via a novel robust approach. The method is tested on the cross-border system of south-east Europe that includes 9 countries. 5 different operational scenarios are used and a detailed calculation of the uncertainty distributions in each country is employed. Results show that cross-border shared sizing can significantly reduce overall reserve volumes and costs in a secure way.©2023 IEEE. Personal use of this material is permitted. Permission from IEEE must be obtained for all other uses, in any current or future media, including reprinting/republishing this material for advertising or promotional purposes, creating new collective works, for resale or redistribution to servers or lists, or reuse of any copyrighted component of this work in other works.fi=vertaisarvioitu|en=peerReviewed

Flexibility Services Provision by Frequency-Dependent Control of On-Load Tap-Changer and Distributed Energy Resources

Distribution network connected distributed energy resources (DER) are able to provide various flexibility services for distribution system operators (DSOs) and transmission system operators (TSOs). These local and system-wide flexibility services offered by DER can support the frequency ( f ) and voltage ( U ) management of a future power system with large amounts of weather-dependent renewable generation and electric vehicles. Depending on the magnitude of frequency deviation, other active network management-based frequency control services for TSOs could also be provided by DSOs in coordination with adaptive control of DER. This paper proposes utilisation of demand response based on frequency-dependent HV/MV transformer on-load tap-changer (OLTC) operation in case of larger frequency deviations. The main principle underlying the proposed scheme lies in the voltage dependency of the distribution network connected loads. In this paper, it is also proposed to, simultaneously with frequency-dependent OLTC control, utilise reverse reactive power -voltage ( QU ) - and adaptive active power -voltage ( PU ) -droops with distribution network connected DER units during these larger frequency deviations, in order to enable better frequency support service for TSOs from DSO networks. The effectivity and potential of the proposed schemes are shown through PSCAD simulations. In addition, this paper also presents a holistic and collaborative view of potential future frequency control services which are provided by DSO network-connected resources for TSOs at different frequency deviation levels.This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License. For more information, see https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/fi=vertaisarvioitu|en=peerReviewed

Towards Flexible Distribution Systems : Future Adaptive Management Schemes

During the ongoing evolution of energy systems toward increasingly flexible, resilient, and digitalized distribution systems, many issues need to be developed. In general, a holistic multi-level systemic view is required on the future enabling technologies, control and management methods, operation and planning principles, regulation as well as market and business models. Increasing integration of intermittent renewable generation and electric vehicles, as well as industry electrification during the evolution, requires a huge amount of flexibility services at multiple time scales and from different voltage levels, resources, and sectors. Active use of distribution network-connected flexible energy resources for flexibility services provision through new marketplaces will also be needed. Therefore, increased collaboration between system operators in operation and planning of the future power system will also become essential during the evolution. In addition, use of integrated cyber-secure, resilient, cost-efficient, and advanced communication technologies and solutions will be of key importance. This paper describes a potential three-stage evolution path toward fully flexible, resilient, and digitalized electricity distribution networks. A special focus of this paper is the evolution and development of adaptive control and management methods as well as compatible collaborative market schemes that can enable the improved provision of flexibility services by distribution network-connected flexible energy resources for local (distribution system operator) and system-wide (transmission system operator) needs.© 2021 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).fi=vertaisarvioitu|en=peerReviewed

Comparison of multiple power amplification types for power hardware-in-the-loop applications

This Paper discusses Power Hardware-in-the-Loop simulations from an important point of view: an intrinsic and integral part of PHIL simulation – the power amplification. In various publications PHIL is discussed either in a very theoretical approach or it is briefly featured as the used method. In neither of these publication types the impact of the power amplification to the total PHIL simulation is discussed deeply. This paper extends this discussion into the comparison of three different power amplification units and their usability for PHIL simulations. Finally in the conclusion it is discussed which type of power amplification is best for which type of PHIL experiment