Combining Dynamic Predictions from Joint Models for Longitudinal and Time-to-Event Data using Bayesian Model Averaging

The joint modeling of longitudinal and time-to-event data is an active area of statistics research that has received a lot of attention in the recent years. More recently, a new and attractive application of this type of models has been to obtain individualized predictions of survival probabilities and/or of future longitudinal responses. The advantageous feature of these predictions is that they are dynamically updated as extra longitudinal responses are collected for the subjects of interest, providing real time risk assessment using all recorded information. The aim of this paper is two-fold. First, to highlight the importance of modeling the association structure between the longitudinal and event time responses that can greatly influence the derived predictions, and second, to illustrate how we can improve the accuracy of the derived predictions by suitably combining joint models with different association structures. The second goal is achieved using Bayesian model averaging, which, in this setting, has the very intriguing feature that the model weights are not fixed but they are rather subject- and time-dependent, implying that at different follow-up times predictions for the same subject may be based on different models

Valence band offset of the ZnO/AlN heterojunction determined by X-ray photoemission spectroscopy

The valence band offset of ZnO/AlN heterojunctions is determined by high resolution x-ray photoemission spectroscopy. The valence band of ZnO is found to be 0.43±0.17 eV below that of AlN. Together with the resulting conduction band offset of 3.29±0.20 eV, this indicates that a type-II (staggered) band line up exists at the ZnO/AlN heterojunction. Using the III-nitride band offsets and the transitivity rule, the valence band offsets for ZnO/GaN and ZnO/InN heterojunctions are derived as 1.37 and 1.95 eV, respectively, significantly higher than the previously determined values

Differences in Treatment Patterns and Outcomes of Acute Myocardial Infarction for Low- and High-Income Patients in 6 Countries

IMPORTANCE: Differences in the organization and financing of health systems may produce more or less equitable outcomes for advantaged vs disadvantaged populations. We compared treatments and outcomes of older high- and low-income patients across 6 countries. OBJECTIVE: To determine whether treatment patterns and outcomes for patients presenting with acute myocardial infarction differ for low- vs high-income individuals across 6 countries. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: Serial cross-sectional cohort study of all adults aged 66 years or older hospitalized with acute myocardial infarction from 2013 through 2018 in the US, Canada, England, the Netherlands, Taiwan, and Israel using population-representative administrative data. EXPOSURES: Being in the top and bottom quintile of income within and across countries. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Thirty-day and 1-year mortality; secondary outcomes included rates of cardiac catheterization and revascularization, length of stay, and readmission rates. RESULTS: We studied 289 376 patients hospitalized with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) and 843 046 hospitalized with non-STEMI (NSTEMI). Adjusted 30-day mortality generally was 1 to 3 percentage points lower for high-income patients. For instance, 30-day mortality among patients admitted with STEMI in the Netherlands was 10.2% for those with high income vs 13.1% for those with low income (difference, -2.8 percentage points [95% CI, -4.1 to -1.5]). One-year mortality differences for STEMI were even larger than 30-day mortality, with the highest difference in Israel (16.2% vs 25.3%; difference, -9.1 percentage points [95% CI, -16.7 to -1.6]). In all countries, rates of cardiac catheterization and percutaneous coronary intervention were higher among high- vs low-income populations, with absolute differences ranging from 1 to 6 percentage points (eg, 73.6% vs 67.4%; difference, 6.1 percentage points [95% CI, 1.2 to 11.0] for percutaneous intervention in England for STEMI). Rates of coronary artery bypass graft surgery for patients with STEMI in low- vs high-income strata were similar but for NSTEMI were generally 1 to 2 percentage points higher among high-income patients (eg, 12.5% vs 11.0% in the US; difference, 1.5 percentage points [95% CI, 1.3 to 1.8 ]). Thirty-day readmission rates generally also were 1 to 3 percentage points lower and hospital length of stay generally was 0.2 to 0.5 days shorter for high-income patients. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: High-income individuals had substantially better survival and were more likely to receive lifesaving revascularization and had shorter hospital lengths of stay and fewer readmissions across almost all countries. Our results suggest that income-based disparities were present even in countries with universal health insurance and robust social safety net systems

Tiered Approach to Resilience Assessment

Regulatory agencies have long adopted a three-tier framework for risk assessment. We build on this structure to propose a tiered approach for resilience assessment that can be integrated into the existing regulatory processes. Comprehensive approaches to assessing resilience at appropriate and operational scales, reconciling analytical complexity as needed with stakeholder needs and resources available, and ultimately creating actionable recommendations to enhance resilience are still lacking. Our proposed framework consists of tiers by which analysts can select resilience assessment and decision support tools to inform associated management actions relative to the scope and urgency of the risk and the capacity of resource managers to improve system resilience. The resilience management framework proposed is not intended to supplant either risk management or the many existing efforts of resilience quantification method development, but instead provide a guide to selecting tools that are appropriate for the given analytic need. The goal of this tiered approach is to intentionally parallel the tiered approach used in regulatory contexts so that resilience assessment might be more easily and quickly integrated into existing structures and with existing policies

The Sediment Green-Blue Color Ratio as a Proxy for Biogenic Silica Productivity Along the Chilean Margin

Sediment cores recently collected from the Chilean Margin during D/V JOIDES Resolution Expedition 379T (JR100) document variability in shipboard-generated records of the green/blue (G/B) ratio. These changes show a strong coherence with benthic foraminiferal δ18O, Antarctic ice core records, and sediment lithology (e.g., higher diatom abundances in greener sediment intervals), suggesting a climate-related control on the G/B. Here, we test the utility of G/B as a proxy for diatom productivity at Sites J1002 and J1007 by calibrating G/B to measured biogenic opal. Strong exponential correlations between measured opal% and the G/B were found at both sites. We use the empirical regressions to generate high-resolution records of opal contents (opal%) on the Chilean Margin. Higher productivity tends to result in more reducing sedimentary conditions. Redox-sensitive sedimentary U/Th generally co-varies with the reconstructed opal% at both sites, supporting the association between sediment color, sedimentary U/Th, and productivity. Lastly, we calculated opal mass accumulation rate (MAR) at Site J1007 over the last ∼150,000 years. The G/B-derived opal MAR record from Site J1007 largely tracks existing records derived from traditional wet-alkaline digestion from the south and eastern equatorial Pacific (EEP) Ocean, with a common opal flux peak at ∼50 ka suggesting that increased diatom productivity in the EEP was likely driven by enhanced nutrient supply from the Southern Ocean rather than dust inputs as previously suggested. Collectively, our results identify the G/B ratio as a useful tool with the potential to generate reliable, high-resolution paleoceanographic records that circumvent the traditionally laborious methodology.publishedVersio

Deep submarine infiltration of altered geothermal groundwater on the south Chilean Margin

Submarine groundwater discharge is increasingly recognized as an important component of the oceanic geochemical budget, but knowledge of the distribution of this phenomenon is limited. To date, reports of meteoric inputs to marine sediments are typically limited to shallow shelf and coastal environments, whereas contributions of freshwater along deeper sections of tectonically active margins have generally been attributed to silicate diagenesis, mineral dehydration, or methane hydrate dissociation. Here, using geochemical fingerprinting of pore water data from Site J1003 recovered from the Chilean Margin during D/V JOIDES Resolution Expedition 379 T, we show that substantial offshore freshening reflects deep and focused contributions of meteorically modified geothermal groundwater, which is likely sourced from a reservoir ~2.8 km deep in the Aysén region of Patagonia and infiltrated marine sediments during or shortly after the last glacial period. Emplacement of fossil groundwaters reflects an apparently ubiquitous phenomenon in margin sediments globally, but our results now identify an unappreciated locus of deep submarine groundwater discharge along active margins with potential implications for coastal biogeochemical processes and tectonic instability.publishedVersio

Adaptive designs undertaken in clinical research: a review of registered clinical trials

Adaptive designs have the potential to improve efficiency in the evaluation of new medical treatments in comparison to traditional fixed sample size designs. However, they are still not widely used in practice in clinical research. Little research has been conducted to investigate what adaptive designs are being undertaken. This review highlights the current state of registered adaptive designs and their characteristics. The review looked at phase II, II/III and III trials registered on ClinicalTrials.gov from 29 February 2000 to 1 June 2014, supplemented with trials from the National Institute for Health Research register and known adaptive trials. A range of adaptive design search terms were applied to the trials extracted from each database. Characteristics of the adaptive designs were then recorded including funder, therapeutic area and type of adaptation. The results in the paper suggest that the use of adaptive designs has increased. They seem to be most often used in phase II trials and in oncology. In phase III trials, the most popular form of adaptation is the group sequential design. The review failed to capture all trials with adaptive designs, which suggests that the reporting of adaptive designs, such as in clinical trials registers, needs much improving. We recommend that clinical trial registers should contain sections dedicated to the type and scope of the adaptation and that the term 'adaptive design' should be included in the trial title or at least in the brief summary or design sections