Effectiveness and safety of non-vitamin K oral anticoagulants versus warfarin in patients with atrial fibrillation and previous stroke: A systematic review and meta-analysis

Introduction: Current evidence regarding the clinical outcomes of non-vitamin K oral anticoagulants (NOACs) versus warfarin in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) and previous stroke is inconclusive, especially in patients with previous intracranial haemorrhage (ICrH). We aim to undertake a systematic review and meta-analysis assessing the effectiveness and safety of NOACs versus warfarin in AF patients with a history of stroke. Methods: We searched studies published up to December 10, 2022, on PubMed, Medline, Embase, and Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials. Studies on adults with AF and previous ischaemic stroke (IS) or IrCH receiving either NOACs or warfarin and capturing outcome events (thromboembolic events, ICrH, and all-cause mortality) were eligible for inclusion. Results: Six randomized controlled trials (RCTs) (including 19,489 patients with previous IS) and fifteen observational studies (including 132,575 patients with previous IS and 13,068 patients with previous ICrH) were included. RCT data showed that compared with warfarin, NOACs were associated with a significant reduction in thromboembolic events (odds ratio [OR]: 0.85, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.75-0.96), ICrH (OR: 0.57, 95% CI: 0.36-0.90), and all-cause mortality (OR: 0.88, 95% CI: 0.80-0.98). In analysing observational studies, similar results were retrieved. Moreover, patients with previous ICrH had a lower OR on thromboembolic events than those with IS (OR: 0.66, 95% CI: 0.46-0.95 vs. OR: 0.80, 95% CI: 0.70-0.93) in the comparison between NOACs and warfarin. Conclusions: Observational data showed that in AF patients with previous stroke, NOACs showed better clinical performance compared to warfarin and the benefits of NOACs were more pronounced in patients with previous IrCH versus those with IS. RCT data also showed NOACs are superior to warfarin. However, current RCTs only included AF patients who survived an IS, and further large RCTs focused on patients with previous ICrH are warranted.</p

The ARIA trial protocol: a randomised controlled trial to assess the clinical, technical, and cost-effectiveness of a cloud-based, ARtificially Intelligent image fusion system in comparison to standard treatment to guide endovascular Aortic aneurysm repair

BackgroundEndovascular repair of aortic aneurysmal disease is established due to perceived advantages in patient survival, reduced postoperative complications, and shorter hospital lengths of stay. High spatial and contrast resolution 3D CT angiography images are used to plan the procedures and inform device selection and manufacture, but in standard care, the surgery is performed using image-guidance from 2D X-ray fluoroscopy with injection of nephrotoxic contrast material to visualise the blood vessels. This study aims to assess the benefit to patients, practitioners, and the health service of a novel image fusion medical device (Cydar EV), which allows this high-resolution 3D information to be available to operators at the time of surgery.MethodsThe trial is a multi-centre, open label, two-armed randomised controlled clinical trial of 340 patient, randomised 1:1 to either standard treatment in endovascular aneurysm repair or treatment using Cydar EV, a CE-marked medical device comprising of cloud computing, augmented intelligence, and computer vision. The primary outcome is procedural time, with secondary outcomes of procedural efficiency, technical effectiveness, patient outcomes, and cost-effectiveness. Patients with a clinical diagnosis of AAA or TAAA suitable for endovascular repair and able to provide written informed consent will be invited to participate.DiscussionThis trial is the first randomised controlled trial evaluating advanced image fusion technology in endovascular aortic surgery and is well placed to evaluate the effect of this technology on patient outcomes and cost to the NHS.Trial registrationISRCTN13832085. Dec. 3, 202

Knowledge, attitude, and practice toward antibiotic use among the general public in a resource-poor setting: A case of Aden-Yemen

Introduction: Antibiotic overuse and misuse can cause serious health issues. These problems have contributed to a rise in bacterial resistance. Hence, our study aims to highlight the existing knowledge and attitudes toward antibiotic usage among the general public in Aden-Yemen. Methodology: A cross-sectional descriptive study of knowledge, attitude, and practice of the general public was conducted in different areas of Aden city–Yemen. The study conveniently selected a sample of 400 general public working in different areas in Aden. Descriptive statistics were used for data analysis. Results: A total of 400 participants were involved in the study. Nearly 88.8% administered antibiotics in all cases of fever, 58.3% thought that antibiotics could cure infections caused by the virus, and 65.5% disagree that antibiotics should be stopped as soon as the complaint disappears. More than 77.5% thought that antibiotics in cases of the common cold are not necessary. However, 46.5% incorrectly thought that "early use of antibiotics in patients with cough, running nose, and sore throat would be cured quickly". Concerning knowledge of antibiotic resistance, 81.5% correctly answered that "overuse of antibiotics increases the risk of resistance. Most respondents reported that physicians were their primary source of information regarding antibiotic use. The most noted among respondents was that 62.7% had antibiotics for treatment without prescription in the last six months. Conclusions: Respondents have adequate knowledge and moderate attitude toward antibiotic use. However, self-medication was common practice among the general public of Aden. Therefore, they had a misunderstanding, misconception, and irrational use of antibiotics

Résection laparoscopique d’une duplication gastrique chez l’adulte: traitement avec succès pour une pathologie rare

Les duplications de l'appareil digestif sont les malformations congénitales rares qui peuvent toucher tout  l'appareil digestive depuis la bouche jusqu' à l'anus. Certaines duplications sont asymptomatiques et sont diagnostiqués dans la plupart des cas pendant l'enfance. La prise en charge de la duplication gastrique est essentiellement chirurgicale. Le traitement de choix est l'exérèse complète de la duplication gastrique. Les auteurs rapportent un cas inhabituel de duplication gastrique complètement reséquée par laparoscopie. A notre connaissance, ceci est le premier cas d'une duplication gastrique traitée avec succès par laparoscopie dans la littérature Tunisienne. La Résection laparoscopique peut être ajoutée à l'arsenal thérapeutique dans le traitement chirurgical de duplications du tube digestif.Key words: Duplication, estomac, diagnostic, endoscopi

Stroke in Sierra Leone: Case fatality rate and functional outcome after stroke in Freetown

Background: There is limited information on long term outcomes after stroke in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Current estimates of case fatality rate (CFR) in SSA are based on small sample sizes with varying study design and report high heterogeneity. Aims: We report CFR and functional outcomes from a large, prospective, longitudinal cohort of stroke patients in Sierra Leone and describe factors associated with mortality and functional outcome. Methods: A prospective longitudinal stroke register was established at both adult tertiary government hospitals in Freetown, Sierra Leone. It recruited all patients ≥18 years with stroke, using the World Health Organization definition, from May 2019 until October 2021. To reduce selection bias onto the register all investigations were paid by the funder and outreach conducted to raise awareness of the study. Sociodemographic data, National Institute of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) and Barthel Index (BI) was collected on all patients on admission, at seven days, 90 days, one year and two years post stroke. Cox proportional-hazards models were constructed to identify factors associated with all-cause mortality. A binomial logistic regression model reports odds ratio (OR) for functional independence at one year. Results: 986 patients with stroke were included, of which 847 (85.9%) received neuroimaging. Follow up rate was 81.5% at one year, missing item data was &lt;1% for most variables. Stroke cases were equally split by sex and mean age was 58.9 (SD: 14.0) years. 625 (63%) were ischaemic, 206 (21%) primary intracerebral haemorrhage, 25 (3%) subarachnoid haemorrhage and 130 (13%) were of undetermined stroke type. Median NIHSS was 16 (9-24). CFR at 30 days, 90 days, 1 year and 2 years was 37.1%, 44.4%, 49.7% and 53.2% respectively. Factors associated with increased fatality were male sex HR:1.28 (1.05-1.56), previous stroke HR:1.34 (1.04-1.71), atrial fibrillation HR:1.58(1.06-2.34), subarachnoid haemorrhage HR:2.31 (1.40-3.81), undetermined stroke type HR: 3.18(2.44-4.14) and in-hospital complications HR: 1.65 (1.36-1.98). 93% of patients were completely independent prior to their stroke, declining to 19% at one year after stroke. Functional improvement was most likely to occur between 7 and 90-days post stroke with 35% patients improving, and 13% improving between 90 days to one year. Increasing age OR: 0.97(0.95-0.99), previous stroke OR: 0.50 (0.26-0.98), NIHSS OR 0.89 (0.86-0.91), undetermined stroke type OR:0.18 (0.05-0.62) and ≥1 in hospital complication OR:0.52 (0.34-0.80) were associated with lower OR of functional independence at one year. Whilst hypertension OR:1.98 (1.14-3.44) and being the primary breadwinner of the household OR:1.59 (1.01-2.49) were associated with functional independence. Discussion: Stroke in Sierra Leone affected younger people, and resulted in high rates of fatality and functional impairment relative to global averages. Key clinical priorities for reducing fatality include preventing stroke-related complications through evidence-based stroke care; improved detection and management of atrial fibrillation, and increasing coverage of secondary prevention. Further research into care pathways and interventions to encourage care seeking for less severe strokes should be prioritized. Data availability: Requests for access to anonymized data for academic use should be made to the SISLE team https://www.kcl.ac.uk/research/stroke

Global burden of 288 causes of death and life expectancy decomposition in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990–2021:a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BackgroundRegular, detailed reporting on population health by underlying cause of death is fundamental for public health decision making. Cause-specific estimates of mortality and the subsequent effects on life expectancy worldwide are valuable metrics to gauge progress in reducing mortality rates. These estimates are particularly important following large-scale mortality spikes, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. When systematically analysed, mortality rates and life expectancy allow comparisons of the consequences of causes of death globally and over time, providing a nuanced understanding of the effect of these causes on global populations.MethodsThe Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 cause-of-death analysis estimated mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) from 288 causes of death by age-sex-location-year in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations for each year from 1990 until 2021. The analysis used 56 604 data sources, including data from vital registration and verbal autopsy as well as surveys, censuses, surveillance systems, and cancer registries, among others. As with previous GBD rounds, cause-specific death rates for most causes were estimated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model—a modelling tool developed for GBD to assess the out-of-sample predictive validity of different statistical models and covariate permutations and combine those results to produce cause-specific mortality estimates—with alternative strategies adapted to model causes with insufficient data, substantial changes in reporting over the study period, or unusual epidemiology. YLLs were computed as the product of the number of deaths for each cause-age-sex-location-year and the standard life expectancy at each age. As part of the modelling process, uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated using the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles from a 1000-draw distribution for each metric. We decomposed life expectancy by cause of death, location, and year to show cause-specific effects on life expectancy from 1990 to 2021. We also used the coefficient of variation and the fraction of population affected by 90% of deaths to highlight concentrations of mortality. Findings are reported in counts and age-standardised rates. Methodological improvements for cause-of-death estimates in GBD 2021 include the expansion of under-5-years age group to include four new age groups, enhanced methods to account for stochastic variation of sparse data, and the inclusion of COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality—which includes excess mortality associated with the pandemic, excluding COVID-19, lower respiratory infections, measles, malaria, and pertussis. For this analysis, 199 new country-years of vital registration cause-of-death data, 5 country-years of surveillance data, 21 country-years of verbal autopsy data, and 94 country-years of other data types were added to those used in previous GBD rounds.FindingsThe leading causes of age-standardised deaths globally were the same in 2019 as they were in 1990; in descending order, these were, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and lower respiratory infections. In 2021, however, COVID-19 replaced stroke as the second-leading age-standardised cause of death, with 94·0 deaths (95% UI 89·2–100·0) per 100 000 population. The COVID-19 pandemic shifted the rankings of the leading five causes, lowering stroke to the third-leading and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease to the fourth-leading position. In 2021, the highest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 occurred in sub-Saharan Africa (271·0 deaths [250·1–290·7] per 100 000 population) and Latin America and the Caribbean (195·4 deaths [182·1–211·4] per 100 000 population). The lowest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 were in the high-income super-region (48·1 deaths [47·4–48·8] per 100 000 population) and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania (23·2 deaths [16·3–37·2] per 100 000 population). Globally, life expectancy steadily improved between 1990 and 2019 for 18 of the 22 investigated causes. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the positive effect that reductions in deaths from enteric infections, lower respiratory infections, stroke, and neonatal deaths, among others have contributed to improved survival over the study period. However, a net reduction of 1·6 years occurred in global life expectancy between 2019 and 2021, primarily due to increased death rates from COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality. Life expectancy was highly variable between super-regions over the study period, with southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania gaining 8·3 years (6·7–9·9) overall, while having the smallest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 (0·4 years). The largest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 occurred in Latin America and the Caribbean (3·6 years). Additionally, 53 of the 288 causes of death were highly concentrated in locations with less than 50% of the global population as of 2021, and these causes of death became progressively more concentrated since 1990, when only 44 causes showed this pattern. The concentration phenomenon is discussed heuristically with respect to enteric and lower respiratory infections, malaria, HIV/AIDS, neonatal disorders, tuberculosis, and measles.InterpretationLong-standing gains in life expectancy and reductions in many of the leading causes of death have been disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic, the adverse effects of which were spread unevenly among populations. Despite the pandemic, there has been continued progress in combatting several notable causes of death, leading to improved global life expectancy over the study period. Each of the seven GBD super-regions showed an overall improvement from 1990 and 2021, obscuring the negative effect in the years of the pandemic. Additionally, our findings regarding regional variation in causes of death driving increases in life expectancy hold clear policy utility. Analyses of shifting mortality trends reveal that several causes, once widespread globally, are now increasingly concentrated geographically. These changes in mortality concentration, alongside further investigation of changing risks, interventions, and relevant policy, present an important opportunity to deepen our understanding of mortality-reduction strategies. Examining patterns in mortality concentration might reveal areas where successful public health interventions have been implemented. Translating these successes to locations where certain causes of death remain entrenched can inform policies that work to improve life expectancy for people everywhere.FundingBill &amp; Melinda Gates Foundation.<br/

Global fertility in 204 countries and territories, 1950–2021, with forecasts to 2100:a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BackgroundAccurate assessments of current and future fertility—including overall trends and changing population age structures across countries and regions—are essential to help plan for the profound social, economic, environmental, and geopolitical challenges that these changes will bring. Estimates and projections of fertility are necessary to inform policies involving resource and health-care needs, labour supply, education, gender equality, and family planning and support. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 produced up-to-date and comprehensive demographic assessments of key fertility indicators at global, regional, and national levels from 1950 to 2021 and forecast fertility metrics to 2100 based on a reference scenario and key policy-dependent alternative scenarios.MethodsTo estimate fertility indicators from 1950 to 2021, mixed-effects regression models and spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression were used to synthesise data from 8709 country-years of vital and sample registrations, 1455 surveys and censuses, and 150 other sources, and to generate age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs) for 5-year age groups from age 10 years to 54 years. ASFRs were summed across age groups to produce estimates of total fertility rate (TFR). Livebirths were calculated by multiplying ASFR and age-specific female population, then summing across ages 10–54 years. To forecast future fertility up to 2100, our Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) forecasting model was based on projections of completed cohort fertility at age 50 years (CCF50; the average number of children born over time to females from a specified birth cohort), which yields more stable and accurate measures of fertility than directly modelling TFR. CCF50 was modelled using an ensemble approach in which three sub-models (with two, three, and four covariates variously consisting of female educational attainment, contraceptive met need, population density in habitable areas, and under-5 mortality) were given equal weights, and analyses were conducted utilising the MR-BRT (meta-regression—Bayesian, regularised, trimmed) tool. To capture time-series trends in CCF50 not explained by these covariates, we used a first-order autoregressive model on the residual term. CCF50 as a proportion of each 5-year ASFR was predicted using a linear mixed-effects model with fixed-effects covariates (female educational attainment and contraceptive met need) and random intercepts for geographical regions. Projected TFRs were then computed for each calendar year as the sum of single-year ASFRs across age groups. The reference forecast is our estimate of the most likely fertility future given the model, past fertility, forecasts of covariates, and historical relationships between covariates and fertility. We additionally produced forecasts for multiple alternative scenarios in each location: the UN Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) for education is achieved by 2030; the contraceptive met need SDG is achieved by 2030; pro-natal policies are enacted to create supportive environments for those who give birth; and the previous three scenarios combined. Uncertainty from past data inputs and model estimation was propagated throughout analyses by taking 1000 draws for past and present fertility estimates and 500 draws for future forecasts from the estimated distribution for each metric, with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) given as the 2·5 and 97·5 percentiles of the draws. To evaluate the forecasting performance of our model and others, we computed skill values—a metric assessing gain in forecasting accuracy—by comparing predicted versus observed ASFRs from the past 15 years (2007–21). A positive skill metric indicates that the model being evaluated performs better than the baseline model (here, a simplified model holding 2007 values constant in the future), and a negative metric indicates that the evaluated model performs worse than baseline.FindingsDuring the period from 1950 to 2021, global TFR more than halved, from 4·84 (95% UI 4·63–5·06) to 2·23 (2·09–2·38). Global annual livebirths peaked in 2016 at 142 million (95% UI 137–147), declining to 129 million (121–138) in 2021. Fertility rates declined in all countries and territories since 1950, with TFR remaining above 2·1—canonically considered replacement-level fertility—in 94 (46·1%) countries and territories in 2021. This included 44 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa, which was the super-region with the largest share of livebirths in 2021 (29·2% [28·7–29·6]). 47 countries and territories in which lowest estimated fertility between 1950 and 2021 was below replacement experienced one or more subsequent years with higher fertility; only three of these locations rebounded above replacement levels. Future fertility rates were projected to continue to decline worldwide, reaching a global TFR of 1·83 (1·59–2·08) in 2050 and 1·59 (1·25–1·96) in 2100 under the reference scenario. The number of countries and territories with fertility rates remaining above replacement was forecast to be 49 (24·0%) in 2050 and only six (2·9%) in 2100, with three of these six countries included in the 2021 World Bank-defined low-income group, all located in the GBD super-region of sub-Saharan Africa. The proportion of livebirths occurring in sub-Saharan Africa was forecast to increase to more than half of the world's livebirths in 2100, to 41·3% (39·6–43·1) in 2050 and 54·3% (47·1–59·5) in 2100. The share of livebirths was projected to decline between 2021 and 2100 in most of the six other super-regions—decreasing, for example, in south Asia from 24·8% (23·7–25·8) in 2021 to 16·7% (14·3–19·1) in 2050 and 7·1% (4·4–10·1) in 2100—but was forecast to increase modestly in the north Africa and Middle East and high-income super-regions. Forecast estimates for the alternative combined scenario suggest that meeting SDG targets for education and contraceptive met need, as well as implementing pro-natal policies, would result in global TFRs of 1·65 (1·40–1·92) in 2050 and 1·62 (1·35–1·95) in 2100. The forecasting skill metric values for the IHME model were positive across all age groups, indicating that the model is better than the constant prediction.InterpretationFertility is declining globally, with rates in more than half of all countries and territories in 2021 below replacement level. Trends since 2000 show considerable heterogeneity in the steepness of declines, and only a small number of countries experienced even a slight fertility rebound after their lowest observed rate, with none reaching replacement level. Additionally, the distribution of livebirths across the globe is shifting, with a greater proportion occurring in the lowest-income countries. Future fertility rates will continue to decline worldwide and will remain low even under successful implementation of pro-natal policies. These changes will have far-reaching economic and societal consequences due to ageing populations and declining workforces in higher-income countries, combined with an increasing share of livebirths among the already poorest regions of the world.FundingBill &amp; Melinda Gates Foundation

Burden of Stroke in Europe:An Analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study Findings From 2010 to 2019

BACKGROUND:While most European Regions perform well in global comparisons, large discrepancies within stroke epidemiological parameters exist across Europe. The objective of this analysis was to evaluate the stroke burden across European regions and countries in 2019 and its difference to 2010.METHODS:The GBD 2019 analytical tools were used to evaluate regional and country-specific estimates of incidence, prevalence, deaths, and disability-adjusted life years of stroke for the European Region as defined by the World Health Organization, with its 53 member countries (EU-53) and for European Union as defined in 2019, with its 28 member countries (EU-28), between 2010 and 2019. Results were analyzed at a regional, subregional, and country level.RESULTS:In EU-53, the absolute number of incident and prevalent strokes increased by 2% (uncertainty interval [UI], 0%–4%), from 1 767 280 to 1 802 559 new cases, and by 4% (UI, 3%–5%) between 2010 and 2019, respectively. In EU-28, the absolute number of prevalent strokes and stroke-related deaths increased by 4% (UI, 2%–5%) and by 6% (UI, 1%–10%), respectively. All-stroke age-standardized mortality rates, however, decreased by 18% (UI, −22% to −14%), from 82 to 67 per 100 000 people in the EU-53, and by 15% (UI, −18% to −11%), from 49.3 to 42.0 per 100 000 people in EU-28. Despite most countries presenting reductions in age-adjusted incidence, prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life year rates, these rates remained 1.4×, 1.2×, 1.6×, and 1.7× higher in EU-53 in comparison to the EU-28.CONCLUSIONS:EU-53 showed a 2% increase in incident strokes, while they remained stable in EU-28. Age-standardized rates were consistently lower for all-stroke burden parameters in EU-28 in comparison to EU-53, and huge discrepancies in incidence, prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life-year rates were observed between individual countries.<br/

A prospective stroke register in Sierra Leone: Demographics, stroke type, stroke care and hospital outcomes

Introduction Stroke is the second most common cause of adult death in Africa. This study reports the demographics, stroke types, stroke care and hospital outcomes for stroke in Freetown, Sierra Leone. Methods A prospective observational register recorded all patients 18 years and over with stroke between May 2019 and April 2020. Stroke was defined according to the WHO criteria. Pearson’s chi squared test was used to examine associations between categorical variables and unpaired t-tests for continuous variables. Multivariable logistic regression,to explain in-hospital death, was reported as odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals. Results 385 strokes were registered, 315 (81.8%) were first in a lifetime events. Mean age was 59.2 (SD 13.8) and 187 (48.6%) were male. 327 (84.9%) of strokes were confirmed by CT scan. 231 (60.0%) were ischaemic, 85 (22.1%) intracerebral haemorrhage, 11 (2.9%) subarachnoid haemorrhage and 58 (15.1%) undetermined stroke type. The median National Institute of Health Stroke Scale on presentation was 17 (IQR 9-25). Haemorrhagic strokes compared to ischaemic strokes were more severe, 20 (IQR 12-26) vs 13 (IQR 7-22) (p<0.001), and occurred in a younger population, mean age 52.3 (SD 12.0) vs 61.6 (SD 13.8) (p<0.001), with a lower level of educational attainment 28.2% vs 40.7% (p=0.04). The median time from stroke onset to arrival at the principal referral hospital was 25 hours (IQR 6-73). Half the patients (50.4%) sought care at another health provider prior to arrival. 151 patients died in hospital (39.5%). 43 deaths occurred within 48 hours of arriving at hospital with median time to death of 4 days (IQR 0-7 days). 49.6% of patients had ≥1 complication, 98 (25.5%) pneumonia, 33 (8.6%) urinary tract infection. Male gender (OR 3.33,1.65 - 6.75), pneumonia (OR 3.75, 1.82 – 7.76), subarachnoid haemorrhage (OR 43.1, 6.70-277.4) and undetermined stroke types (OR 6.35, 2.17– 18.60), were associated with higher risk of in-hospital death. Discussion We observed severe strokes occurring in a young population with high in hospital mortality. Further work to deliver evidence-based stroke care is essential to reduce stroke mortality in Sierra Leone