Effects of Economic Interactions on Credit Risk

We study a credit risk model which captures effects of economic interactions on a firm's default probability. Economic interactions are represented as a functionally defined graph, and the existence of both cooperative, and competitive, business relations is taken into account. We provide an analytic solution of the model in a limit where the number of business relations of each company is large, but the overall fraction of the economy with which a given company interacts may be small. While the effects of economic interactions are relatively weak in typical (most probable) scenarios, they are pronounced in situations of economic stress, and thus lead to a substantial fattening of the tails of loss distributions in large loan portfolios. This manifests itself in a pronounced enhancement of the Value at Risk computed for interacting economies in comparison with their non-interacting counterparts.Comment: 24 pages, 6 figure

Filling in the Gaps of Virginia Bail Reform

The 1960\u27s and early 1970\u27s witnessed an unprecedented reform of the bail laws of this country. The reform has made it possible for a greater percentage of criminal defendants to be released before trial thereby avoiding the stigma and considerable prejudice flowing from incarceration. Even though the reform has also produced a modest increase in the number of persons who fail to appear for trial, on balance critical response to the reform has been favorable

Ionization of Carbon and Nitrogen in The Intercloud Medium

If the intercloud medium in the solar neighborhood was suddenly ionized less than 106 years ago, the subsequent relaxation of the gas can account for the very low observed column density of C III and N III yet still leave a significant fraction ( \u270.05) of ionized hydrogen and of C I in a cold (T ≈ 20° K) intercloud medium. The OAO-C Copernicus observations in the direction of X Sco are consistent with cosmic abundances and a uniform-density medium, except for C III whose predicted column density from the C m ionization zone surrounding the star is a factor ~1Q greater than the observed result

Derivatives and Credit Contagion in Interconnected Networks

The importance of adequately modeling credit risk has once again been highlighted in the recent financial crisis. Defaults tend to cluster around times of economic stress due to poor macro-economic conditions, {\em but also} by directly triggering each other through contagion. Although credit default swaps have radically altered the dynamics of contagion for more than a decade, models quantifying their impact on systemic risk are still missing. Here, we examine contagion through credit default swaps in a stylized economic network of corporates and financial institutions. We analyse such a system using a stochastic setting, which allows us to exploit limit theorems to exactly solve the contagion dynamics for the entire system. Our analysis shows that, by creating additional contagion channels, CDS can actually lead to greater instability of the entire network in times of economic stress. This is particularly pronounced when CDS are used by banks to expand their loan books (arguing that CDS would offload the additional risks from their balance sheets). Thus, even with complete hedging through CDS, a significant loan book expansion can lead to considerably enhanced probabilities for the occurrence of very large losses and very high default rates in the system. Our approach adds a new dimension to research on credit contagion, and could feed into a rational underpinning of an improved regulatory framework for credit derivatives.Comment: 26 pages, 7 multi-part figure

A complementary compact laser based neutron source

Several experiments of neutron generation using high intensity laser sources, with a power exceeding 10^19W/cm^2 via TNSA (Target Normal Sheath Acceleration) or other similar methods, have been performed in the past years in different laboratories. However, so far there is no one running neutron source based on such a technology. In the framework of the Conceptual Report Design of a new accelerator in the Eupraxia project we are studying the possibility to have a laser-based neutron source, not only by TNSA but also from self-injection schemes. We focus our attention on the applications in cultural heritage studies as well also on the complementary role that such a source can have in the framework of large facilities devoted to radiation production.Comment: 4 pages, two figures, 3rd European Advanced Accelerators Concept

Solvable model of a phase oscillator network on a circle with infinite-range Mexican-hat-type interaction

We describe a solvable model of a phase oscillator network on a circle with infinite-range Mexican-hat-type interaction. We derive self-consistent equations of the order parameters and obtain three non-trivial solutions characterized by the rotation number. We also derive relevant characteristics such as the location-dependent distributions of the resultant frequencies of desynchronized oscillators. Simulation results closely agree with the theoretical ones