Fear of the dark? A mesopredator mitigates large carnivore risk through nocturnality, but humans moderate the interaction.

While constrained by endogenous rhythms, morphology and ecology, animals may still exhibit flexible activity patterns in response to risk. Temporal avoidance of interspecific aggression can enable access to resources without spatial exclusion. Apex predators, including humans, can affect mesopredator activity patterns. Human context might also modify temporal interactions between predators. We explored activity patterns, nocturnality and the effects of human activity upon a guild of carnivores (grey wolf, Canis lupus; Eurasian lynx, Lynx lynx; red fox, Vulpes vulpes) using travel routes in Plitvice Lakes National Park, Croatia. Humans were diurnal, foxes nocturnal and large carnivores active during the night, immediately after sunrise and before sunset. Carnivore activity patterns overlapped greatly and to a similar extent for all pairings. Activity curves followed expectations based on interspecific killing, with activity peaks coinciding where body size differences were small (wolf and lynx) but not when they were intermediate (foxes to large carnivores). Carnivore activity, particularly fox, overlapped much less with that of diurnal humans. Foxes responded to higher large carnivore activity by being more nocturnal. Low light levels likely provide safer conditions by reducing the visual detectability of mesopredators. The nocturnal effect of large carnivores was however moderated and reduced by human activity. This could perhaps be due to temporal shielding or interference with risk cues. Subtle temporal avoidance and nocturnality may enable mesopredators to cope with interspecific aggression at shared spatial resources. Higher human activity moderated the effects of top-down temporal suppression which could consequently affect the trophic interactions of mesopredators.Nacionalni Park Plitvička Jezera (Plitvice Lakes National Park), The Bernd Thies Foundation, EuroNatur, Bangor University, The UK Wolf Conservation Trust, The Coalbourn Charitable Trust, Ann Vernon Memorial Travel Fund and Sir Ian McKellen.http://link.springer.com/journal/265pm2020Centre for Wildlife Managemen

Fear, foraging and olfaction: how mesopredators avoid costly interactions with apex predators

Where direct killing is rare and niche overlap low, sympatric carnivores may appear to coexist without conflict. Interference interactions, harassment and injury from larger carnivores may still pose a risk to smaller mesopredators. Foraging theory suggests that animals should adjust their behaviour accordingly to optimise foraging efficiency and overall fitness, trading off harvest rate with costs to fitness. The foraging behaviour of red foxes, Vulpes vulpes, was studied with automated cameras and a repeated measures giving-up density (GUD) experiment where olfactory risk cues were manipulated. In Plitvice Lakes National Park, Croatia, red foxes increased GUDs by 34% and quitting harvest rates by 29% in response to wolf urine. In addition to leaving more food behind, foxes also responded to wolf urine by spending less time visiting food patches each day and altering their behaviour in order to compensate for the increased risk when foraging from patches. Thus, red foxes utilised olfaction to assess risk and experienced foraging costs due to the presence of a cue from gray wolves, Canis lupus. This study identifies behavioural mechanisms which may enable competing predators to coexist, and highlights the potential for additional ecosystem service pathways arising from the behaviour of large carnivores. Given the vulnerability of large carnivores to anthropogenic disturbance, a growing human population and intensifying resource consumption, it becomes increasingly important to understand ecological processes so that land can be managed appropriately.Table S1: Considerations proposed for the application of the giving-up density framework in field research and how the methodologies created in this paper accounted for these considerations.Table S2: Ethogram describing behaviours recorded (Bold font). Other behaviours that might accompany or be performed alongside those recorded are described in plain text.Bangor University, The UK Wolf Conservation Trust, The Coalbourn Charitable Trust, Ann Vernon Memorial Travel Fund and Sir Ian McKellen.http://link.springer.com/journal/442am2018Centre for Wildlife Managemen

Foraging theory provides a useful framework for livestock predation management

A societal shift toward plant dominant diets and a reduction in livestock rearing could have broad social, environmental and conservation benefits. Livestock husbandry, however, has a wealthy cultural history, strong support and high consumer demand. It is therefore likely to continue as a major land use and conservation issue for predators. From a producer’s perspective, the primary goals of livestock protection are maximising, or at least maintaining, production by minimising losses and mitigating detriment to stock welfare. Lethal removal of predators remains a commonplace solution. Such management measures are questionable as they raise animal welfare and conservation concerns, risk inhibiting ecological processes, are often expensive, and in some circumstances, exacerbate livestock predation problems. Non-lethal alternatives can facilitate co-existence between livestock farmers and predators, ideally reducing the ecological impact of pastoralism and achieving conservation goals. The need for rigorous study of non-lethal approaches has however been recently highlighted. Tools and methods involved in livestock protection, as well as the theoretical basis of how we perceive and manage the problem, require deeper consideration. Non-lethal approaches require knowledgeable implementation and an effective decision making system is a prerequisite for successful practice. Livestock predation and its prevention are fundamentally influenced by the underlying principles of foraging ecology and risk theory. We propose that manipulating elements of Brown’s (1988) quitting harvest rate model provides a useful conceptual framework for reducing livestock predation and encouraging coexistence.http://www.elsevier.de/jnc2020-06-01hj2019Centre for Wildlife Managemen

Fear, foraging and olfaction : how mesopredators avoid costly interactions with apex predators

Where direct killing is rare and niche overlap low, sympatric carnivores may appear to coexist without conflict. Interference interactions, harassment and injury from larger carnivores may still pose a risk to smaller mesopredators. Foraging theory suggests that animals should adjust their behaviour accordingly to optimise foraging efficiency and overall fitness, trading off harvest rate with costs to fitness. The foraging behaviour of red foxes, Vulpes vulpes, was studied with automated cameras and a repeated measures giving-up density (GUD) experiment where olfactory risk cues were manipulated. In Plitvice Lakes National Park, Croatia, red foxes increased GUDs by 34% and quitting harvest rates by 29% in response to wolf urine. In addition to leaving more food behind, foxes also responded to wolf urine by spending less time visiting food patches each day and altering their behaviour in order to compensate for the increased risk when foraging from patches. Thus, red foxes utilised olfaction to assess risk and experienced foraging costs due to the presence of a cue from gray wolves, Canis lupus. This study identifies behavioural mechanisms which may enable competing predators to coexist, and highlights the potential for additional ecosystem service pathways arising from the behaviour of large carnivores. Given the vulnerability of large carnivores to anthropogenic disturbance, a growing human population and intensifying resource consumption, it becomes increasingly important to understand ecological processes so that land can be managed appropriately.Table S1: Considerations proposed for the application of the giving-up density framework in field research and how the methodologies created in this paper accounted for these considerations.Table S2: Ethogram describing behaviours recorded (Bold font). Other behaviours that might accompany or be performed alongside those recorded are described in plain text.Bangor University, The UK Wolf Conservation Trust, The Coalbourn Charitable Trust, Ann Vernon Memorial Travel Fund and Sir Ian McKellen.http://link.springer.com/journal/442am2018Centre for Wildlife Managemen

Can we save large carnivores without losing large carnivore science?

Large carnivores are depicted to shape entire ecosystems through top-down processes. Studies describing these processes are often used to support interventionist wildlife management practices, including carnivore reintroduction or lethal control programs. Unfortunately, there is an increasing tendency to ignore, disregard or devalue fundamental principles of the scientific method when communicating the reliability of current evidence for the ecological roles that large carnivores may play, eroding public confidence in large carnivore science and scientists. Here, we discuss six interrelated issues that currently undermine the reliability of the available literature on the ecological roles of large carnivores: (1) the overall paucity of available data, (2) reliability of carnivore population sampling techniques, (3) general disregard for alternative hypotheses to top-down forcing, (4) lack of applied science studies, (5) frequent use of logical fallacies, and (6) generalisation of results from relatively pristine systems to those substantially altered by humans. We first describe how widespread these issues are, and given this, show, for example, that evidence for the roles of wolves (Canis lupus) and dingoes (Canis lupus dingo) in initiating trophic cascades is not as strong as is often claimed. Managers and policy makers should exercise caution when relying on this literature to inform wildlife management decisions. We emphasise the value of manipulative experiments, and discuss the role of scientific knowledge in the decision-making process. We hope that the issues we raise here prompt deeper consideration of actual evidence, leading towards an improvement in both the rigour and communication of large carnivore science

Large carnivore science: non-experimental studies are useful, but experiments are better

1. Response to Bruskotter and colleagues We recently described the following six interrelated issues that justify questioning some of the discourse about the reliability of the literature on the ecological roles of large carnivores (Allen et al., in press): 1. The overall paucity of available data, 2. The reliability of carnivore population sampling techniques, 3. The general disregard for alternative hypotheses to top-down forcing, 4. The lack of applied science studies, 5. The frequent use of logical fallacies, 6. The generalisation of results from relatively pristine systems to those substantially altered by humans. We thank Bruskotter et al. (2017) for responding to our concerns and engaging with this important issue. We agree completely that nonexperimental studies can and do often have great value, and we recognize that in many (most) cases these types of studies may provide the only data that are available. We acknowledge the many challenges of working on large, cryptic, dangerous, and highly-mobile animals in the wild. However, the absence of more robust data and the reality of these challenges do not excuse weak inference or overstating conclusions – a practice apparent in many studies (and communication of those studies) adopting only observational or correlative methods to infer the roles of large carnivores (reviewed in Allen et al., in press)

The thermal emission of the exoplanets WASP-1b and WASP-2b

We present a comparative study of the thermal emission of the transiting exoplanets WASP-1b and WASP-2b using the Spitzer Space Telescope. The two planets have very similar masses but suffer different levels of irradiation and are predicted to fall either side of a sharp transition between planets with and without hot stratospheres. WASP-1b is one of the most highly irradiated planets studied to date. We measure planet/star contrast ratios in all four of the IRAC bands for both planets (3.6-8.0um), and our results indicate the presence of a strong temperature inversion in the atmosphere of WASP-1b, particularly apparent at 8um, and no inversion in WASP-2b. In both cases the measured eclipse depths favor models in which incident energy is not redistributed efficiently from the day side to the night side of the planet. We fit the Spitzer light curves simultaneously with the best available radial velocity curves and transit photometry in order to provide updated measurements of system parameters. We do not find significant eccentricity in the orbit of either planet, suggesting that the inflated radius of WASP-1b is unlikely to be the result of tidal heating. Finally, by plotting ratios of secondary eclipse depths at 8um and 4.5um against irradiation for all available planets, we find evidence for a sharp transition in the emission spectra of hot Jupiters at an irradiation level of 2 x 10^9 erg/s/cm^2. We suggest this transition may be due to the presence of TiO in the upper atmospheres of the most strongly irradiated hot Jupiters.Comment: 10 pages, submitted to Ap

Diagnosis of helminths depends on worm fecundity and the distribution of parasites within hosts

Helminth transmission and morbidity are dependent on the number of mature parasites within a host; however, observing adult worms is impossible for many natural infections. An outstanding challenge is therefore relating routine diagnostics, such as faecal egg counts, to the underlying worm burden. This relationship is complicated by density-dependent fecundity (egg output per worm reduces due to crowding at high burdens) and the skewed distribution of parasites (majority of helminths aggregated in a small fraction of hosts). We address these questions for the carcinogenic liver fluke Opisthorchis viverrini, which infects approximately 10 million people across Southeast Asia, by analysing five epidemiological surveys (n = 641) where adult flukes were recovered. Using a mechanistic model, we show that parasite fecundity varies between populations, with surveys from Thailand and Laos demonstrating distinct patterns of egg output and density-dependence. As the probability of observing faecal eggs increases with the number of mature parasites within a host, we quantify diagnostic sensitivity as a function of the worm burden and find that greater than 50% of cases are misdiagnosed as false negative in communities close to elimination. Finally, we demonstrate that the relationship between observed prevalence from routine diagnostics and true prevalence is nonlinear and strongly influenced by parasite aggregation

Almost All of Kepler's Multiple Planet Candidates are Planets

We present a statistical analysis that demonstrates that the overwhelming majority of Kepler candidate multiple transiting systems (multis) indeed represent true, physically-associated transiting planets. Binary stars provide the primary source of false positives among Kepler planet candidates, implying that false positives should be nearly randomly-distributed among Kepler targets. In contrast, true transiting planets would appear clustered around a smaller number of Kepler targets if detectable planets tend to come in systems and/or if the orbital planes of planets encircling the same star are correlated. There are more than one hundred times as many Kepler planet candidates in multi-candidate systems as would be predicted from a random distribution of candidates, implying that the vast majority are true planets. Most of these multis are multiple planet systems orbiting the Kepler target star, but there are likely cases where (a) the planetary system orbits a fainter star, and the planets are thus significantly larger than has been estimated, or (b) the planets orbit different stars within a binary/multiple star system. We use the low overall false positive rate among Kepler multis, together with analysis of Kepler spacecraft and ground-based data, to validate the closely-packed Kepler-33 planetary system, which orbits a star that has evolved somewhat off of the main sequence. Kepler-33 hosts five transiting planets with periods ranging from 5.67 to 41 days.Comment: 16 pages, 9 figure

Plant Science Decadal Vision 2020–2030: Reimagining the Potential of Plants for a Healthy and Sustainable Future

Plants, and the biological systems around them, are key to the future health of the planet and its inhabitants. The Plant Science Decadal Vision 2020–2030 frames our ability to perform vital and far‐reaching research in plant systems sciences, essential to how we value participants and apply emerging technologies. We outline a comprehensive vision for addressing some of our most pressing global problems through discovery, practical applications, and education. The Decadal Vision was developed by the participants at the Plant Summit 2019, a community event organized by the Plant Science Research Network. The Decadal Vision describes a holistic vision for the next decade of plant science that blends recommendations for research, people, and technology. Going beyond discoveries and applications, we, the plant science community, must implement bold, innovative changes to research cultures and training paradigms in this era of automation, virtualization, and the looming shadow of climate change. Our vision and hopes for the next decade are encapsulated in the phrase reimagining the potential of plants for a healthy and sustainable future. The Decadal Vision recognizes the vital intersection of human and scientific elements and demands an integrated implementation of strategies for research (Goals 1–4), people (Goals 5 and 6), and technology (Goals 7 and 8). This report is intended to help inspire and guide the research community, scientific societies, federal funding agencies, private philanthropies, corporations, educators, entrepreneurs, and early career researchers over the next 10 years. The research encompass experimental and computational approaches to understanding and predicting ecosystem behavior; novel production systems for food, feed, and fiber with greater crop diversity, efficiency, productivity, and resilience that improve ecosystem health; approaches to realize the potential for advances in nutrition, discovery and engineering of plant‐based medicines, and green infrastructure. Launching the Transparent Plant will use experimental and computational approaches to break down the phytobiome into a parts store that supports tinkering and supports query, prediction, and rapid‐response problem solving. Equity, diversity, and inclusion are indispensable cornerstones of realizing our vision. We make recommendations around funding and systems that support customized professional development. Plant systems are frequently taken for granted therefore we make recommendations to improve plant awareness and community science programs to increase understanding of scientific research. We prioritize emerging technologies, focusing on non‐invasive imaging, sensors, and plug‐and‐play portable lab technologies, coupled with enabling computational advances. Plant systems science will benefit from data management and future advances in automation, machine learning, natural language processing, and artificial intelligence‐assisted data integration, pattern identification, and decision making. Implementation of this vision will transform plant systems science and ripple outwards through society and across the globe. Beyond deepening our biological understanding, we envision entirely new applications. We further anticipate a wave of diversification of plant systems practitioners while stimulating community engagement, underpinning increasing entrepreneurship. This surge of engagement and knowledge will help satisfy and stoke people\u27s natural curiosity about the future, and their desire to prepare for it, as they seek fuller information about food, health, climate and ecological systems