Epic Human Failure on June 30, 2013

Nineteen Prescott Fire Department, Granite Mountain Hot Shot (GMHS) wildland firefighters and supervisors (WFF), perished on the June 2013 Yarnell Hill Fire (YHF) in Arizona. The firefighters left their Safety Zone during forecast, outflow winds, triggering explosive fire behavior in drought-stressed chaparral. Why would an experienced WFF Crew, leave ‘good black’ and travel downslope through a brush-filled chimney, contrary to their training and experience? An organized Serious Accident Investigation Team (SAIT) found, “… no indication of negligence, reckless actions, or violations of policy or protocol.” Despite this, many WFF professionals deemed the catastrophe, “… the final, fatal link, in a long chain of bad decisions with good outcomes.” This paper is a theoretical and realistic examination of plausible, faulty, human decisions with prior good outcomes; internal and external impacts, influencing the GMHS; and two explanations for this catastrophe: Individual Blame Logic and Organizational Function Logic, and proposed preventive mitigations

Construction productivity analysis for asphalt concrete pavement rehabilitation in urban corridors

The results of a constructibility and productivity analysis for the California Department of Transportation Long Life Asphalt Concrete Pavement Rehabilitation Strategies program are presented. With the assistance of California asphalt concrete (AC) paving contractors, the analysis explored the effects on construction productivity of rehabilitation materials, design strategy (crack seat and overlay, full-depth replacement), layer profiles, AC cooling time, resource constraints, and alternative lane closure tactics. Deterministic and stochastic analysis programs were developed. A sensitivity study that examined the construction production capability within a 55-h weekend closure was performed. Weekend closures were also compared with continuous closures. Demolition and AC delivery truck flows were the major constraints limiting the AC rehabilitation production capability. It was concluded from the study that efficient lane closure tactics designed to work with the pavement profile (an minimize the nonworking time to increase the construction product! on efficiency. The results of the study will help road agencies evaluate rehabilitation strategies and tactics with the goal of balancing the maximization of production capability and minimization of traffic delay during urban pavement rehabilitation.open114sciescopu

Exploring the context of sedentary behaviour in older adults (what, where, why, when and with whom)

BACKGROUND: Older adults are the most sedentary segment of the population. Little information is available about the context of sedentary behaviour to inform guidelines and intervention. There is a dearth of information about when, where to intervene and which specific behaviours intervention should target. The aim of this exploratory study was to obtain objective information about what older adults do when sedentary, where and when they are sedentary and in what social context. METHODS: The study was a cross-sectional data collection. Older adults (Mean age = 73.25, SD ± 5.48, median = 72, IQR = 11) volunteers wore activPAL monitors and a Vicon Revue timelapse camera between 1 and 7 days. Periods of sedentary behaviour were identified using the activPAL and the context extracted from the pictures taken during these periods. Analysis of context was conducted using the Sedentary Behaviour International Taxonomy classification system. RESULTS: In total, 52 days from 36 participants were available for analysis. Participants spent 70.1 % of sedentary time at home, 56.9 % of sedentary time on their own and 46.8 % occurred in the afternoon. Seated social activities were infrequent (6.9 % of sedentary bouts) but prolonged (18 % of sedentary time). Participants appeared to frequently have vacant sitting time (41 % of non-screen sedentary time) and screen sitting was prevalent (36 % of total sedentary time). CONCLUSIONS: This study provides valuable information to inform future interventions to reduce sedentary behaviour. Interventions should consider targeting the home environment and focus on the afternoon sitting time, though this needs confirmation in a larger study. Tackling social isolation may also be a target to reduce sedentary time

Metal-based imaging agents: progress towards interrogating neurodegenerative disease.

Central nervous system (CNS) neurodegeneration is defined by a complex series of pathological processes that ultimately lead to death. The precise etiology of these disorders remains unknown. Recent efforts show that a mechanistic understanding of the malfunctions underpinning disease progression will prove requisite in developing new treatments and cures. Transition metals and lanthanide ions display unique characteristics (i.e., magnetism, radioactivity, and luminescence), often with biological relevance, allowing for direct application in CNS focused imaging modalities. These techniques include positron emission tomography (PET), single-photon emission computed tomography (SPECT), magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), and luminescent-based imaging (LumI). In this Tutorial Review, we have aimed to highlight the various metal-based imaging techniques developed in the effort to understand the pathophysiological processes associated with neurodegeneration. Each section has been divided so as to include an introduction to the particular imaging technique in question. This is then followed by a summary of key demonstrations that have enabled visualization of a specific neuropathological biomarker. These strategies have either exploited the high binding affinity of a receptor for its corresponding biomarker or a specific molecular transformation caused by a target species, all of which produce a concomitant change in diagnostic signal. Advantages and disadvantages of each method with perspectives on the utility of molecular imaging agents for understanding the complexities of neurodegenerative disease are discussed

Fixing extraction through conservation : on crises, fixes and the production of shared value and threat

We are currently witnessing a global trend of intensifying and deepening relationships between extractive companies and biodiversity conservation organisations that warrants closer scrutiny. Although existing literature has established that these two sectors often share the same space and rely on similar logics, it is increasingly common to find biodiversity conservation being carried out through partnerships between extractive and conservation actors. In this article, we explore what this cooperation achieves for both sectors. Using illustrative examples of extractive-conservation collaboration across sub-Saharan Africa, we argue that new entanglements between extractive and conservation actors are motivated by multiple purposes. First, partnering with conservation actors serves as a spatial and socio-ecological fix for extractive companies in response to multiple crises that threaten the sector's productivity. Second, new forms of collaboration between extractive and conservation actors create pathways for both sectors to produce new value from nature. For the extractive sector, creating new value from nature works as a further fix to capitalist crises whereas, for the conservation sector, producing value through nature amounts to new opportunities for capital accumulation. Importantly, working together to produce shared value from nature within and beyond extractive concessions secures both sectors' control over the means of production. Theoretically, our analysis links literature on value in capitalist nature with that on spatial and socio-ecological fixes

Alcohol-induced retrograde facilitation renders witnesses of crime less suggestible to misinformation

RATIONALE: Research has shown that alcohol can have both detrimental and facilitating effects on memory: intoxication can lead to poor memory for information encoded after alcohol consumption (anterograde amnesia) and may improve memory for information encoded before consumption (retrograde facilitation). This study examined whether alcohol consumed after witnessing a crime can render individuals less vulnerable to misleading post-event information (misinformation). METHOD: Participants watched a simulated crime video. Thereafter, one third of participants expected and received alcohol (alcohol group), one third did not expect but received alcohol (reverse placebo), and one third did not expect nor receive alcohol (control). After alcohol consumption, participants were exposed to misinformation embedded in a written narrative about the crime. The following day, participants completed a cued-recall questionnaire about the event. RESULTS: Control participants were more likely to report misinformation compared to the alcohol and reverse placebo group. CONCLUSION: The findings suggest that we may oversimplify the effect alcohol has on suggestibility and that sometimes alcohol can have beneficial effects on eyewitness memory by protecting against misleading post-event information

Information-Derived Mechanistic Hypotheses for Structural Cardiotoxicity

Adverse events resulting from drug therapy can be a cause of drug withdrawal, reduced and or restricted clinical use, as well as a major economic burden for society. To increase the safety of new drugs, there is a need to better understand the mechanisms causing the adverse events. One way to derive new mechanistic hypotheses is by linking data on drug adverse events with the drugs’ biological targets. In this study, we have used data mining techniques and mutual information statistical approaches to find associations between reported adverse events collected from the FDA Adverse Event Reporting System and assay outcomes from ToxCast, with the aim to generate mechanistic hypotheses related to structural cardiotoxicity (morphological damage to cardiomyocytes and/or loss of viability). Our workflow identified 22 adverse event-assay outcome associations. From these associations, 10 implicated targets could be substantiated with evidence from previous studies reported in the literature. For two of the identified targets, we also describe a more detailed mechanism, forming putative adverse outcome pathways associated with structural cardiotoxicity. Our study also highlights the difficulties deriving these type of associations from the very limited amount of data available

Tau isoform-specific enhancement of L-type calcium current and augmentation of afterhyperpolarization in rat hippocampal neurons.

This is the final version. Available from Springer Nature via the DOI in this record. Data availability: All materials, data and associated protocols will be made available to readers upon reasonable request to Prof. N.V. Marrion ([email protected]), without undue qualifications.Accumulation of tau is observed in dementia, with human tau displaying 6 isoforms grouped by whether they display either 3 or 4 C-terminal repeat domains (3R or 4R) and exhibit no (0N), one (1N) or two (2N) N terminal repeats. Overexpression of 4R0N-tau in rat hippocampal slices enhanced the L-type calcium (Ca2+) current-dependent components of the medium and slow afterhyperpolarizations (AHPs). Overexpression of both 4R0N-tau and 4R2N-tau augmented CaV1.2-mediated L-type currents when expressed in tsA-201 cells, an effect not observed with the third 4R isoform, 4R1N-tau. Current enhancement was only observed when the pore-forming subunit was co-expressed with CaVβ3 and not CaVβ2a subunits. Non-stationary noise analysis indicated that enhanced Ca2+ channel current arose from a larger number of functional channels. 4R0N-tau and CaVβ3 were found to be physically associated by co-immunoprecipitation. In contrast, the 4R1N-tau isoform that did not augment expressed macroscopic L-type Ca2+ current exhibited greatly reduced binding to CaVβ3. These data suggest that physical association between tau and the CaVβ3 subunit stabilises functional L-type channels in the membrane, increasing channel number and Ca2+ influx. Enhancing the Ca2+-dependent component of AHPs would produce cognitive impairment that underlie those seen in the early phases of tauopathies.Alzheimer´s Research U

Estimating the number needed to treat from continuous outcomes in randomised controlled trials: methodological challenges and worked example using data from the UK Back Pain Exercise and Manipulation (BEAM) trial

Background Reporting numbers needed to treat (NNT) improves interpretability of trial results. It is unusual that continuous outcomes are converted to numbers of individual responders to treatment (i.e., those who reach a particular threshold of change); and deteriorations prevented are only rarely considered. We consider how numbers needed to treat can be derived from continuous outcomes; illustrated with a worked example showing the methods and challenges. Methods We used data from the UK BEAM trial (n = 1, 334) of physical treatments for back pain; originally reported as showing, at best, small to moderate benefits. Participants were randomised to receive 'best care' in general practice, the comparator treatment, or one of three manual and/or exercise treatments: 'best care' plus manipulation, exercise, or manipulation followed by exercise. We used established consensus thresholds for improvement in Roland-Morris disability questionnaire scores at three and twelve months to derive NNTs for improvements and for benefits (improvements gained+deteriorations prevented). Results At three months, NNT estimates ranged from 5.1 (95% CI 3.4 to 10.7) to 9.0 (5.0 to 45.5) for exercise, 5.0 (3.4 to 9.8) to 5.4 (3.8 to 9.9) for manipulation, and 3.3 (2.5 to 4.9) to 4.8 (3.5 to 7.8) for manipulation followed by exercise. Corresponding between-group mean differences in the Roland-Morris disability questionnaire were 1.6 (0.8 to 2.3), 1.4 (0.6 to 2.1), and 1.9 (1.2 to 2.6) points. Conclusion In contrast to small mean differences originally reported, NNTs were small and could be attractive to clinicians, patients, and purchasers. NNTs can aid the interpretation of results of trials using continuous outcomes. Where possible, these should be reported alongside mean differences. Challenges remain in calculating NNTs for some continuous outcomes