Posterior mean and variance approximation for regression and time series problems

This paper develops a methodology for approximating the posterior first two moments of the posterior distribution in Bayesian inference. Partially specified probability models that are defined only by specifying means and variances, are constructed based upon second-order conditional independence in order to facilitate posterior updating and prediction of required distributional quantities. Such models are formulated particularly for multivariate regression and time series analysis with unknown observational variance-covariance components. The similarities and differences of these models with the Bayes linear approach are established. Several subclasses of important models, including regression and time series models with errors following multivariate t, inverted multivariate t and Wishart distributions, are discussed in detail. Two numerical examples consisting of simulated data and of US investment and change in inventory data illustrate the proposed methodology

Pesticides and metabolites in groundwater: examples from two major UK aquifers

Reducing the impact of anthropogenic pollution on groundwater bodies and ameliorating any deterioration of water quality is central to key legislative drivers such as the EU Water Framework Directive and the proposed daughter Directive relating to the protection of groundwater. Pesticide pollution has a direct impact on groundwater quality and an indirect impact on the associated aquatic ecosystems supported by groundwater. There is currently no legislative requirement to monitor pesticide metabolite concentrations in groundwater. Pesticide and metabolite results from two nationally important aquifers are presented, the Trassic Sandstone and the Chalk of Southern England. Aerobic microbial degradation of diuron in the soil can lead to the formation of three compounds; dichlorophenylmethyl urea (DCPMU), dichlorophenyl urea (DCPU) and dichloroanaline (DCA).Median diuron concentrations were significantly higher than each of the metabolites with outliers exceeding the PVC on at least one occasion. At nine sites in Kent, Southern England, (60%) metabolites were more prevalent than diuron. Both aquifers are an important source of water, locally supplying up to 80% of public drinking water. The sandstone site has a predominantly arable landuse with a potential diffuse source of pesticides although soakaways are possible point sources.The chalk site has a mixture of arable and industrial/urban landuse. A significant source has been from excessive applications of diuron (“over-spray”) on a number of public amenities. Data from both aquifers show that pesticide concentrations have a high degree of temporal variability. Elevated pesticide concentrations are associated with recharge events in both aquifer systems regardless of pesticide source terms. Pesticides from amenity use and diffuse agricultural sources both pose a threat to groundwater quality. Pesticide metabolites are present in significant concentrations in groundwaters. Systematic, long-term monitoring (5-10 years) is required to understand trends in groundwater quality

Representation, searching and discovery of patterns of bases in complex RNA structures

We describe a graph theoretic method designed to perform efficient searches for substructural patterns in nucleic acid structural coordinate databases using a simplified vectorial representation. Two vectors represent each nucleic acid base and the relative positions of bases with respect to one another are described in terms of distances between the defined start and end points of the vectors on each base. These points comprise the nodes and the distances the edges of a graph, and a pattern search can then be performed using a subgraph isomorphism algorithm. The minimal representation was designed to facilitate searches for complex patterns but was first tested on simple, well-characterised arrangements of bases such as base pairs and GNRA-tetraloop receptor interactions. The method performed very well for these interaction types. A survey of side-by-side base interactions, of which the adenosine platform is the best known example, also locates examples of similar base rearrangements that we consider to be important in structural regulation. A number of examples were found, with GU platforms being particularly prevalent. A GC platform in the RNA of the Thermus thermophilus small ribosomal subunit is in an analogous position to an adenosine platform in other species. An unusual GG platform is also observed close to one of the substrate binding sites in Haloarcula marismortui large ribosomal subunit RNA

Electronic Medical Records: Great Idea Or Great Threat To Privacy?

The practice of storing health care records in electronic format, rather than the traditional paper, is becoming increasing popular, especially since the advent of legislation that provided a framework for transmission of these data and encouragement to convert.  However, this process is not without challenges and there are significant concerns over how to maintain the security of these data.  On one hand, EMRs are expected to increase efficiency and provide cost savings. On the other hand, they increase the risk to privacy.  This paper discusses both the risks and benefits of EMRs in the current legal framework in order for us to gain a better understanding of these systems. Awareness of the risks will help in building more secure EMRs which may be mandated in most countries

What causes aberrant salience in schizophrenia? A role for impaired short-term habituation and the GRIA1 (GluA1) AMPA receptor subunit.

The GRIA1 locus, encoding the GluA1 (also known as GluRA or GluR1) AMPA glutamate receptor subunit, shows genome-wide association to schizophrenia. As well as extending the evidence that glutamatergic abnormalities have a key role in the disorder, this finding draws attention to the behavioural phenotype of Gria1 knockout mice. These mice show deficits in short-term habituation. Importantly, under some conditions the attention being paid to a recently presented neutral stimulus can actually increase rather than decrease (sensitization). We propose that this mouse phenotype represents a cause of aberrant salience and, in turn, that aberrant salience (and the resulting positive symptoms) in schizophrenia may arise, at least in part, from a glutamatergic genetic predisposition and a deficit in short-term habituation. This proposal links an established risk gene with a psychological process central to psychosis and is supported by findings of comparable deficits in short-term habituation in mice lacking the NMDAR receptor subunit Grin2a (which also shows association to schizophrenia). As aberrant salience is primarily a dopaminergic phenomenon, the model supports the view that the dopaminergic abnormalities can be downstream of a glutamatergic aetiology. Finally, we suggest that, as illustrated here, the real value of genetically modified mice is not as ‘models of schizophrenia’ but as experimental tools that can link genomic discoveries with psychological processes and help elucidate the underlying neural mechanisms

Marine Ecosystem Enclosed Experiments : proceedings of a symposium held in Beijing, People's Republic of China, 9-14 May 1987

Abstracts in French and Spanis

Towards a formal description of the collapse approach to the inflationary origin of the seeds of cosmic structure

Inflation plays a central role in our current understanding of the universe. According to the standard viewpoint, the homogeneous and isotropic mode of the inflaton field drove an early phase of nearly exponential expansion of the universe, while the quantum fluctuations (uncertainties) of the other modes gave rise to the seeds of cosmic structure. However, if we accept that the accelerated expansion led the universe into an essentially homogeneous and isotropic space-time, with the state of all the matter fields in their vacuum (except for the zero mode of the inflaton field), we can not escape the conclusion that the state of the universe as a whole would remain always homogeneous and isotropic. It was recently proposed in [A. Perez, H. Sahlmann and D. Sudarsky, "On the quantum origin of the seeds of cosmic structure," Class. Quant. Grav. 23, 2317-2354 (2006)] that a collapse (representing physics beyond the established paradigm, and presumably associated with a quantum-gravity effect a la Penrose) of the state function of the inflaton field might be the missing element, and thus would be responsible for the emergence of the primordial inhomogeneities. Here we will discuss a formalism that relies strongly on quantum field theory on curved space-times, and within which we can implement a detailed description of such a process. The picture that emerges clarifies many aspects of the problem, and is conceptually quite transparent. Nonetheless, we will find that the results lead us to argue that the resulting picture is not fully compatible with a purely geometric description of space-time.Comment: 53 pages, no figures. Revision to match the published versio

Quantization on Curves

Deformation quantization on varieties with singularities offers perspectives that are not found on manifolds. Essential deformations are classified by the Harrison component of Hochschild cohomology, that vanishes on smooth manifolds and reflects information about singularities. The Harrison 2-cochains are symmetric and are interpreted in terms of abelian $*$-products. This paper begins a study of abelian quantization on plane curves over \Crm, being algebraic varieties of the form R2/I where I is a polynomial in two variables; that is, abelian deformations of the coordinate algebra C[x,y]/(I). To understand the connection between the singularities of a variety and cohomology we determine the algebraic Hochschild (co-)homology and its Barr-Gerstenhaber-Schack decomposition. Homology is the same for all plane curves C[x,y]/(I), but the cohomology depends on the local algebra of the singularity of I at the origin.Comment: 21 pages, LaTex format. To appear in Letters Mathematical Physic

Large-scale Roll Out of Electronic Longitudinal Mood-Monitoring for Research in Affective Disorders: Report From the UK Bipolar Disorder Research Network

Background Electronic longitudinal mood monitoring has been shown to be acceptable to patients with affective disorders within clinical settings, but its use in large-scale research has not yet been established. Methods Using both postal and email invitations, we invited 4080 past research participants with affective disorders who were recruited into the Bipolar Disorder Research Network (BDRN) over a 10 year period to participate in online weekly mood monitoring. In addition, since January 2015 we have invited all newly recruited BDRN research participants to participate in mood monitoring at the point they were recruited into BDRN. Results Online mood monitoring uptake among past participants was 20, and among new participants to date was 46 with participants recruited over the last year most likely to register (61). More than 90 mood monitoring participants engaged for at least one month, with mean engagement period greater than one year (58 weeks) and maximum engagement for longer than three years (165 weeks). There were no significant differences in the proportion of past and new BDRN participants providing data for at least 4 weeks (91, 92 respectively), 3 months (78, 82), 6 months (65, 54) or one year (51, 44). Limitations Our experiences with recruiting participants for electronic prospective mood monitoring may not necessarily generalise fully to research situations that are very different from those we describe. Conclusions Large-scale electronic longitudinal mood monitoring in affective disorders for research purposes is feasible with uptake highest among newly recruited participants