Development of a tool to predict outcome of Autologous Chondrocyte Implantation

Objective. The study had 2 objectives: first, to evaluate the success of autologous chondrocyte implantation (ACI) in terms of incidence of surgical re-intervention, including arthroplasty, and investigate predictors of successful treatment outcome. The second objective was to derive a tool predicting a patient’s arthroplasty risk following ACI. Design. In this Level II, prognostic study, 170 ACI-treated patients (110 males [aged 36.8 ± 9.4 years]; 60 females [aged 38.1 ± 10.2 years]) completed a questionnaire about further surgery on their knee treated with ACI 10.9 ± 3.5 years previously. Factors commonly assessed preoperatively (age, gender, defect location and number, previous surgery at this site, and the preoperative Lysholm score) were used as independent factors in regression analyses. Results. At final follow-up (maximum of 19 years post-ACI), 40 patients (23.5%) had undergone surgical re-intervention following ACI. Twenty-six patients (15.3%) underwent arthroplasty, more commonly females (25%) than males (10%; P = 0.001). Cox regression analyses identified 4 factors associated with re-intervention: age at ACI, multiple operations before ACI, patellar defects, and lower pretreatment Lysholm scores (Nagelkerke’s R2 = 0.20). Six predictive items associated with risk of arthroplasty following ACI (Nagelkerke’s R2 = 0.34) were used to develop the Oswestry Risk of Knee Arthroplasty index with internal crossvalidation. Conclusion. In a single-center study, we have identified 6 factors (age, gender, location and number of defects, number of previous operations, and Lysholm score before ACI) that appear to influence the likelihood of ACI patients progressing to arthroplasty. We have used this information to propose a formula or “tool” that could aid treatment decisions and improve patient selection for ACI

Imaging of X-Ray-Excited Emissions from Quantum Dots and Biological Tissue in Whole Mouse

Optical imaging in clinical and preclinical settings can provide a wealth of biological information, particularly when coupled with targetted nanoparticles, but optical scattering and absorption limit the depth and resolution in both animal and human subjects. Two new hybrid approaches are presented, using the penetrating power of X-rays to increase the depth of optical imaging. Foremost, we demonstrate the excitation by X-rays of quantum-dots (QD) emitting in the near-infrared (NIR), using a clinical X-ray system to map the distribution of QDs at depth in whole mouse. We elicit a clear, spatially-resolved NIR signal from deep organs (brain, liver and kidney) with short (1 second) exposures and tolerable radiation doses that will permit future in vivo applications. Furthermore, X-ray-excited endogenous emission is also detected from whole mouse. The use of keV X-rays to excite emission from QDs and tissue represent novel biomedical imaging technologies, and exploit emerging QDs as optical probes for spatial-temporal molecular imaging at greater depth than previously possible

Use of SNP chips to detect rare pathogenic variants: retrospective, population based diagnostic evaluation

This is the final version. Available on open access from the BMJ Publishing Group via the DOI in this recordData sharing: The data reported in this paper are available via application directly to the UK Biobank. Direct to consumer data are available from the Personal Genome Project website.Objective To determine whether the sensitivity and specificity of SNP chips are adequate for detecting rare pathogenic variants in a clinically unselected population. Design Retrospective, population based diagnostic evaluation. Participants 49 908 people recruited to the UK Biobank with SNP chip and next generation sequencing data, and an additional 21 people who purchased consumer genetic tests and shared their data online via the Personal Genome Project. Main outcome measures Genotyping (that is, identification of the correct DNA base at a specific genomic location) using SNP chips versus sequencing, with results split by frequency of that genotype in the population. Rare pathogenic variants in the BRCA1 and BRCA2 genes were selected as an exemplar for detailed analysis of clinically actionable variants in the UK Biobank, and BRCA related cancers (breast, ovarian, prostate, and pancreatic) were assessed in participants through use of cancer registry data. Results Overall, genotyping using SNP chips performed well compared with sequencing; sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value were all above 99% for 108 574 common variants directly genotyped on the SNP chips and sequenced in the UK Biobank. However, the likelihood of a true positive result decreased dramatically with decreasing variant frequency; for variants that are very rare in the population, with a frequency below 0.001% in UK Biobank, the positive predictive value was very low and only 16% of 4757 heterozygous genotypes from the SNP chips were confirmed with sequencing data. Results were similar for SNP chip data from the Personal Genome Project, and 20/21 individuals analysed had at least one false positive rare pathogenic variant that had been incorrectly genotyped. For pathogenic variants in the BRCA1 and BRCA2 genes, which are individually very rare, the overall performance metrics for the SNP chips versus sequencing in the UK Biobank were: sensitivity 34.6%, specificity 98.3%, positive predictive value 4.2%, and negative predictive value 99.9%. Rates of BRCA related cancers in UK Biobank participants with a positive SNP chip result were similar to those for age matched controls (odds ratio 1.31, 95% confidence interval 0.99 to 1.71) because the vast majority of variants were false positives, whereas sequence positive participants had a significantly increased risk (odds ratio 4.05, 2.72 to 6.03). Conclusions SNP chips are extremely unreliable for genotyping very rare pathogenic variants and should not be used to guide health decisions without validation.Wellcome TrustNational Institute for Health Research (NIHR

The Cognitive‐Functional Composite is sensitive to clinical progression in early dementia: Longitudinal findings from the Catch‐Cog study cohort

Introduction: In an attempt to capture clinically meaningful cognitive decline in early dementia, we developed the Cognitive-Functional Composite (CFC). We investigated the CFC's sensitivity to decline in comparison to traditional clinical endpoints. Methods: This longitudinal construct validation study included 148 participants with subjective cognitive decline, mild cognitive impairment, or mild dementia. The CFC and traditional tests were administered at baseline, 3, 6, and 12 months. Sensitivity to change was investigated using linear mixed models and r2 effect sizes. Results: CFC scores declined over time (β = −.16, P <.001), with steepest decline observed in mild Alzheimer's dementia (β = −.25, P <.001). The CFC showed medium-to-large effect sizes at succeeding follow-up points (r2=.08-.42), exhibiting greater change than the Clinical Dementia Rating scale (r2=.02-.12). Moreover, change on the CFC was significantly associated with informant reports of cognitive decline (β =.38, P <.001). Discussion: By showing sensitivity to decline, the CFC could enhance the monitoring of disease progression in dementia research and clinical practice

Using genetics to understand the causal influence of higher BMI on depression

 This is the final version. Available on open access from OUP via the DOI in this record.Background: Depression is more common in obese than non-obese individuals, especially in women, but the causal relationship between obesity and depression is complex and uncertain. Previous studies have used genetic variants associated with BMI to provide evidence that higher body mass index (BMI) causes depression, but have not tested whether this relationship is driven by the metabolic consequences of BMI nor for differences between men and women. Methods: We performed a Mendelian randomization study using 48 791 individuals with depression and 291 995 controls in the UK Biobank, to test for causal effects of higher BMI on depression (defined using self-report and Hospital Episode data). We used two genetic instruments, both representing higher BMI, but one with and one without its adverse metabolic consequences, in an attempt to 'uncouple' the psychological component of obesity from the metabolic consequences. We further tested causal relationships in men and women separately, and using subsets of BMI variants from known physiological pathways. Results: Higher BMI was strongly associated with higher odds of depression, especially in women. Mendelian randomization provided evidence that higher BMI partly causes depression. Using a 73-variant BMI genetic risk score, a genetically determined one standard deviation (1 SD) higher BMI (4.9 kg/m2) was associated with higher odds of depression in all individuals [odds ratio (OR): 1.18, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.09, 1.28, P = 0.00007) and women only (OR: 1.24, 95% CI: 1.11, 1.39, P = 0.0001). Meta-analysis with 45 591 depression cases and 97 647 controls from the Psychiatric Genomics Consortium (PGC) strengthened the statistical confidence of the findings in all individuals. Similar effect size estimates were obtained using different Mendelian randomization methods, although not all reached P < 0.05. Using a metabolically favourable adiposity genetic risk score, and meta-analysing data from the UK biobank and PGC, a genetically determined 1 SD higher BMI (4.9 kg/m2) was associated with higher odds of depression in all individuals (OR: 1.26, 95% CI: 1.06, 1.50], P = 0.010), but with weaker statistical confidence. Conclusions: Higher BMI, with and without its adverse metabolic consequences, is likely to have a causal role in determining the likelihood of an individual developing depression.Diabetes Research and Wellness FoundationAustralian Research Training ProgramMedical Research CouncilWellcome TrustEuropean Research CouncilRoyal SocietyGillings Family FoundationDiabetes UKNational Institute for Health Research (NIHR

Influence of family history on penetrance of hereditary cancers in a population setting

This is the final version. Available on open access from Elsevier via the DOI in this recordData sharing statement: All data used in this study can be accessed via application to UK Biobank and approval via the data access committee. The authors are not permitted to directly share this data. The code used to perform GRS is available at https://github.com/hdg204/Rdna-nexus. Variants classified as pathogenic and used in this study are defined in the methods and can be replicated, however a list is available on request.BACKGROUND: We sought to investigate how penetrance of familial cancer syndromes varies with family history using a population-based cohort. METHODS: We analysed 454,712 UK Biobank participants with exome sequence and clinical data (data collected between March 2006 and June 2021). We identified participants with a self-reported family history of breast or colorectal cancer and a pathogenic/likely pathogenic variant in the major genes responsible for hereditary breast cancer or Lynch syndrome. We calculated survival to cancer diagnosis (controlled for sex, death, recruitment centre, screening and prophylactic surgery). FINDINGS: Women with a pathogenic BRCA1 or BRCA2 variant had an increased risk of breast cancer that was higher in those with a first-degree family history (relative hazard 10.3 and 7.8, respectively) than those without (7.2 and 4.7). Penetrance to age 60 was also higher in those with a family history (44.7%, CI 32.2-59.3 and 24.1%, CI 17.5-32.6) versus those without (22.8%, CI 15.9-32.0 and 17.9%, CI 13.8-23.0). A similar pattern was seen in Lynch syndrome: individuals with a pathogenic MLH1, MSH2 or MSH6 variant had an increased risk of colorectal cancer that was significantly higher in those with a family history (relative hazard 35.6, 48.0 and 9.9) than those without (13.0, 15.4 and 7.2). Penetrance to age 60 was also higher for carriers of a pathogenic MLH1 or MSH2 variant in those with a family history (30.9%, CI 18.1-49.3 and 38.3%, CI 21.5-61.8) versus those without (20.5% CI 9.6-40.5 and 8.3% CI 2.1-30.4), but not for MSH6 (6.5% CI 2.7-15.1 with family history versus 8.3%, CI 5.1-13.2). Relative risk increases were also observed both within and across conditions. INTERPRETATION: Individuals with pathogenic cancer syndrome variants may be at a less elevated risk of cancer in the absence of a first-degree family history, so in the context of results return, family history should be considered when counselling patients on the risks and benefits of potential follow-up care. FUNDING: The current work is supported by the MRC (grant no MR/T00200X/1). The MRC had no role in the design and conduct of the study; collection, management, analysis, and interpretation of the data; preparation, review, or approval of the manuscript; and decision to submit the manuscript for publication.Medical Research Council (MRC

Internal and external cooling methods and their effect on body temperature, thermal perception and dexterity

© 2018 The Authors. Published by PLOS. This is an open access article available under a Creative Commons licence. The published version can be accessed at the following link on the publisher’s website: https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0191416© 2018 Maley et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. Objective The present study aimed to compare a range of cooling methods possibly utilised by occupational workers, focusing on their effect on body temperature, perception and manual dexterity. Methods Ten male participants completed eight trials involving 30 min of seated rest followed by 30 min of cooling or control of no cooling (CON) (34C, 58% relative humidity). The cooling methods utilised were: ice cooling vest (CV0), phase change cooling vest melting at 14C (CV14), evaporative cooling vest (CVEV), arm immersion in 10C water (AI), portable water-perfused suit (WPS), heliox inhalation (HE) and ice slushy ingestion (SL). Immediately before and after cooling, participants were assessed for fine (Purdue pegboard task) and gross (grip and pinch strength) manual dexterity. Rectal and skin temperature, as well as thermal sensation and comfort, were monitored throughout. Results Compared with CON, SL was the only method to reduce rectal temperature (P = 0.012). All externally applied cooling methods reduced skin temperature (P0.05). Conclusion The present study observed that ice ingestion or ice applied to the skin produced the greatest effect on rectal and skin temperature, respectively. AI should not be utilised if workers require subsequent fine manual dexterity. These results will help inform future studies investigating appropriate pre-cooling methods for the occupational worker.This project is financially supported by the US Government through the Technical Support Working Group within the Combating Terrorism Technical Support Office.Published versio

Internal dose assessment of 210Po using biokinetic modeling and urinary excretion measurement

The mysterious death of Mr. Alexander Litvinenko who was most possibly poisoned by Polonium-210 (210Po) in November 2006 in London attracted the attention of the public to the kinetics, dosimetry and the risk of this high radiotoxic isotope in the human body. In the present paper, the urinary excretion of seven persons who were possibly exposed to traces of 210Po was monitored. The values measured in the GSF Radioanalytical Laboratory are in the range of natural background concentration. To assess the effective dose received by those persons, the time-dependence of the organ equivalent dose and the effective dose after acute ingestion and inhalation of 210Po were calculated using the biokinetic model for polonium (Po) recommended by the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) and the one recently published by Leggett and Eckerman (L&E). The daily urinary excretion to effective dose conversion factors for ingestion and inhalation were evaluated based on the ICRP and L&E models for members of the public. The ingestion (inhalation) effective dose per unit intake integrated over one day is 1.7 × 10−8 (1.4 × 10−7) Sv Bq−1, 2.0 × 10−7 (9.6 × 10−7) Sv Bq−1 over 10 days, 5.2 × 10−7 (2.0 × 10−6) Sv Bq−1 over 30 days and 1.0 × 10−6 (3.0 × 10−6) Sv Bq−1 over 100 days. The daily urinary excretions after acute ingestion (inhalation) of 1 Bq of 210Po are 1.1 × 10−3 (1.0 × 10−4) on day 1, 2.0 × 10−3 (1.9 × 10−4) on day 10, 1.3 × 10−3 (1.7 × 10−4) on day 30 and 3.6 × 10−4 (8.3 × 10−5) Bq d−1 on day 100, respectively. The resulting committed effective doses range from 2.1 × 10−3 to 1.7 × 10−2 mSv by an assumption of ingestion and from 5.5 × 10−2 to 4.5 × 10−1 mSv by inhalation. For the case of Mr. Litvinenko, the mean organ absorbed dose as a function of time was calculated using both the above stated models. The red bone marrow, the kidneys and the liver were considered as the critical organs. Assuming a value of lethal absorbed dose of 5 Gy to the bone marrow, 6 Gy to the kidneys and 8 Gy to the liver, the amount of 210Po which Mr. Litvinenko might have ingested is therefore estimated to range from 27 to 1,408 MBq, i.e 0.2–8.5 μg, depending on the modality of intake and on different assumptions about blood absorption

Alpha-particle-induced complex chromosome exchanges transmitted through extra-thymic lymphopoiesis in vitro show evidence of emerging genomic instability

Human exposure to high-linear energy transfer α-particles includes environmental (e.g. radon gas and its decay progeny), medical (e.g. radiopharmaceuticals) and occupational (nuclear industry) sources. The associated health risks of α-particle exposure for lung cancer are well documented however the risk estimates for leukaemia remain uncertain. To further our understanding of α-particle effects in target cells for leukaemogenesis and also to seek general markers of individual exposure to α-particles, this study assessed the transmission of chromosomal damage initially-induced in human haemopoietic stem and progenitor cells after exposure to high-LET α-particles. Cells surviving exposure were differentiated into mature T-cells by extra-thymic T-cell differentiation in vitro. Multiplex fluorescence in situ hybridisation (M-FISH) analysis of naïve T-cell populations showed the occurrence of stable (clonal) complex chromosome aberrations consistent with those that are characteristically induced in spherical cells by the traversal of a single α-particle track. Additionally, complex chromosome exchanges were observed in the progeny of irradiated mature T-cell populations. In addition to this, newly arising de novo chromosome aberrations were detected in cells which possessed clonal markers of α-particle exposure and also in cells which did not show any evidence of previous exposure, suggesting ongoing genomic instability in these populations. Our findings support the usefulness and reliability of employing complex chromosome exchanges as indicators of past or ongoing exposure to high-LET radiation and demonstrate the potential applicability to evaluate health risks associated with α-particle exposure.This work was supported by the Department of Health, UK. Contract RRX95 (RMA NSDTG)

Reciprocity as a foundation of financial economics

This paper argues that the subsistence of the fundamental theorem of contemporary financial mathematics is the ethical concept ‘reciprocity’. The argument is based on identifying an equivalence between the contemporary, and ostensibly ‘value neutral’, Fundamental Theory of Asset Pricing with theories of mathematical probability that emerged in the seventeenth century in the context of the ethical assessment of commercial contracts in a framework of Aristotelian ethics. This observation, the main claim of the paper, is justified on the basis of results from the Ultimatum Game and is analysed within a framework of Pragmatic philosophy. The analysis leads to the explanatory hypothesis that markets are centres of communicative action with reciprocity as a rule of discourse. The purpose of the paper is to reorientate financial economics to emphasise the objectives of cooperation and social cohesion and to this end, we offer specific policy advice