Fluid and Diffusion Limits for Bike Sharing Systems

Bike sharing systems have rapidly developed around the world, and they are served as a promising strategy to improve urban traffic congestion and to decrease polluting gas emissions. So far performance analysis of bike sharing systems always exists many difficulties and challenges under some more general factors. In this paper, a more general large-scale bike sharing system is discussed by means of heavy traffic approximation of multiclass closed queueing networks with non-exponential factors. Based on this, the fluid scaled equations and the diffusion scaled equations are established by means of the numbers of bikes both at the stations and on the roads, respectively. Furthermore, the scaling processes for the numbers of bikes both at the stations and on the roads are proved to converge in distribution to a semimartingale reflecting Brownian motion (SRBM) in a $N^{2}$-dimensional box, and also the fluid and diffusion limit theorems are obtained. Furthermore, performance analysis of the bike sharing system is provided. Thus the results and methodology of this paper provide new highlight in the study of more general large-scale bike sharing systems.Comment: 34 pages, 1 figure

Risk Adjustment In Neurocritical care (RAIN)--prospective validation of risk prediction models for adult patients with acute traumatic brain injury to use to evaluate the optimum location and comparative costs of neurocritical care: a cohort study.

OBJECTIVES: To validate risk prediction models for acute traumatic brain injury (TBI) and to use the best model to evaluate the optimum location and comparative costs of neurocritical care in the NHS. DESIGN: Cohort study. SETTING: Sixty-seven adult critical care units. PARTICIPANTS: Adult patients admitted to critical care following actual/suspected TBI with a Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) score of < 15. INTERVENTIONS: Critical care delivered in a dedicated neurocritical care unit, a combined neuro/general critical care unit within a neuroscience centre or a general critical care unit outside a neuroscience centre. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Mortality, Glasgow Outcome Scale - Extended (GOSE) questionnaire and European Quality of Life-5 Dimensions, 3-level version (EQ-5D-3L) questionnaire at 6 months following TBI. RESULTS: The final Risk Adjustment In Neurocritical care (RAIN) study data set contained 3626 admissions. After exclusions, 3210 patients with acute TBI were included. Overall follow-up rate at 6 months was 81%. Of 3210 patients, 101 (3.1%) had no GCS score recorded and 134 (4.2%) had a last pre-sedation GCS score of 15, resulting in 2975 patients for analysis. The most common causes of TBI were road traffic accidents (RTAs) (33%), falls (47%) and assault (12%). Patients were predominantly young (mean age 45 years overall) and male (76% overall). Six-month mortality was 22% for RTAs, 32% for falls and 17% for assault. Of survivors at 6 months with a known GOSE category, 44% had severe disability, 30% moderate disability and 26% made a good recovery. Overall, 61% of patients with known outcome had an unfavourable outcome (death or severe disability) at 6 months. Between 35% and 70% of survivors reported problems across the five domains of the EQ-5D-3L. Of the 10 risk models selected for validation, the best discrimination overall was from the International Mission for Prognosis and Analysis of Clinical Trials in TBI Lab model (IMPACT) (c-index 0.779 for mortality, 0.713 for unfavourable outcome). The model was well calibrated for 6-month mortality but substantially underpredicted the risk of unfavourable outcome at 6 months. Baseline patient characteristics were similar between dedicated neurocritical care units and combined neuro/general critical care units. In lifetime cost-effectiveness analysis, dedicated neurocritical care units had higher mean lifetime quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) at small additional mean costs with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of £14,000 per QALY and incremental net monetary benefit (INB) of £17,000. The cost-effectiveness acceptability curve suggested that the probability that dedicated compared with combined neurocritical care units are cost-effective is around 60%. There were substantial differences in case mix between the 'early' (within 18 hours of presentation) and 'no or late' (after 24 hours) transfer groups. After adjustment, the 'early' transfer group reported higher lifetime QALYs at an additional cost with an ICER of £11,000 and INB of £17,000. CONCLUSIONS: The risk models demonstrated sufficient statistical performance to support their use in research but fell below the level required to guide individual patient decision-making. The results suggest that management in a dedicated neurocritical care unit may be cost-effective compared with a combined neuro/general critical care unit (although there is considerable statistical uncertainty) and support current recommendations that all patients with severe TBI would benefit from transfer to a neurosciences centre, regardless of the need for surgery. We recommend further research to improve risk prediction models; consider alternative approaches for handling unobserved confounding; better understand long-term outcomes and alternative pathways of care; and explore equity of access to postcritical care support for patients following acute TBI. FUNDING: The National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme

Annular pigment band on the posterior capsule following blunt ocular trauma: a case report

BACKGROUND: To report an unusual case of annular pigment band on the posterior capsule following blunt ocular trauma. CASE PRESENTATION: We describe an annular pigment band on the posterior capsule following blunt ocular trauma in a 28-year old male patient. Repeat examinations revealed no evidence of other signs of blunt ocular trauma or pigment dispersion syndrome in either eye. CONCLUSION: The annular pigment band in this case corresponds to the adherence of the hyaloideocapsulare ligament to the posterior capsule and reconfirms its rare visualization in the living eye. This finding may be an isolated sign of blunt ocular trauma and a compromised integrity of the vitreolenticular interface should be strongly suspected. We recommend careful documentation in context of future cataract surgery in these eyes

An evaluation of the clinical and cost-effectiveness of alternative care locations for critically ill adult patients with acute traumatic brain injury.

BACKGROUND: For critically ill adult patients with acute traumatic brain injury (TBI), we assessed the clinical and cost-effectiveness of: (a) Management in dedicated neurocritical care units versus combined neuro/general critical care units within neuroscience centres. (b) 'Early' transfer to a neuroscience centre versus 'no or late' transfer for those who present at a non-neuroscience centre. METHODS: The Risk Adjustment In Neurocritical care (RAIN) Study included prospective admissions following acute TBI to 67 UK adult critical care units during 2009-11. Data were collected on baseline case-mix, mortality, resource use, and at six months, Glasgow Outcome Scale Extended (GOSE), and quality of life (QOL) (EuroQol 5D-3L). We report incremental effectiveness, costs and cost per Quality-Adjusted Life Year (QALY) of the alternative care locations, adjusting for baseline differences with validated risk prediction models. We tested the robustness of results in sensitivity analyses. FINDINGS: Dedicated neurocritical care unit patients (N = 1324) had similar six-month mortality, higher QOL (mean gain 0.048, 95% CI -0.002 to 0.099) and increased average costs compared with those managed in combined neuro/general units (N = 1341), with a lifetime cost per QALY gained of £14,000. 'Early' transfer to a neuroscience centre (N = 584) was associated with lower mortality (odds ratio 0.52, 0.34-0.80), higher QOL for survivors (mean gain 0.13, 0.032-0.225), but positive incremental costs (£15,001, £11,123 to £18,880) compared with 'late or no transfer' (N = 263). The lifetime cost per QALY gained for 'early' transfer was £11,000. CONCLUSIONS: For critically ill adult patients with acute TBI, within neuroscience centres management in dedicated neurocritical care units versus combined neuro/general units led to improved QoL and higher costs, on average, but these differences were not statistically significant. This study finds that 'early' transfer to a neuroscience centre is associated with reduced mortality, improvement in QOL and is cost-effective

Poverty and maternal mortality in Nigeria: towards a more viable ethics of modern medical practice

Poverty is often identified as a major barrier to human development. It is also a powerful brake on accelerated progress toward the Millennium Development Goals. Poverty is also a major cause of maternal mortality, as it prevents many women from getting proper and adequate medical attention due to their inability to afford good antenatal care. This Paper thus examines poverty as a threat to human existence, particularly women's health. It highlights the causes of maternal deaths in Nigeria by questioning the practice of medicine in this country, which falls short of the ethical principle of showing care

Neonatal umbilical cord blood transplantation halts skeletal disease progression in the murine model of MPS-I

Umbilical cord blood (UCB) is a promising source of stem cells to use in early haematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HSCT) approaches for several genetic diseases that can be diagnosed at birth. Mucopolysaccharidosis type I (MPS-I) is a progressive multi-system disorder caused by deficiency of lysosomal enzyme α-L-iduronidase, and patients treated with allogeneic HSCT at the onset have improved outcome, suggesting to administer such therapy as early as possible. Given that the best characterized MPS-I murine model is an immunocompetent mouse, we here developed a transplantation system based on murine UCB. With the final aim of testing the therapeutic efficacy of UCB in MPS-I mice transplanted at birth, we first defined the features of murine UCB cells and demonstrated that they are capable of multi-lineage haematopoietic repopulation of myeloablated adult mice similarly to bone marrow cells. We then assessed the effectiveness of murine UCB cells transplantation in busulfan-conditioned newborn MPS-I mice. Twenty weeks after treatment, iduronidase activity was increased in visceral organs of MPS-I animals, glycosaminoglycans storage was reduced, and skeletal phenotype was ameliorated. This study explores a potential therapy for MPS-I at a very early stage in life and represents a novel model to test UCB-based transplantation approaches for various diseases

Benchmarking and reducing length of stay in Dutch hospitals

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>To assess the development of and variation in lengths of stay in Dutch hospitals and to determine the potential reduction in hospital days if all Dutch hospitals would have an average length of stay equal to that of benchmark hospitals.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The potential reduction was calculated using data obtained from 69 hospitals that participated in the National Medical Registration (LMR). For each hospital, the average length of stay was adjusted for differences in type of admission (clinical or day-care admission) and case mix (age, diagnosis and procedure). We calculated the number of hospital days that theoretically could be saved by (i) counting unnecessary clinical admissions as day cases whenever possible, and (ii) treating all remaining clinical patients with a length of stay equal to the benchmark (15^thpercentile length of stay hospital).</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The average (mean) length of stay in Dutch hospitals decreased from 14 days in 1980 to 7 days in 2006. In 2006 more than 80% of all hospitals reached an average length of stay shorter than the 15th percentile hospital in the year 2000. In 2006 the mean length of stay ranged from 5.1 to 8.7 days. If the average length of stay of the 15^thpercentile hospital in 2006 is identified as the standard that other hospitals can achieve, a 14% reduction of hospital days can be attained. This percentage varied substantially across medical specialties. Extrapolating the potential reduction of hospital days of the 69 hospitals to all 98 Dutch hospitals yielded a total savings of 1.8 million hospital days (2006). The average length of stay in Dutch hospitals if all hospitals were able to treat their patients as the 15^thpercentile hospital would be 6 days and the number of day cases would increase by 13%.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Hospitals in the Netherlands vary substantially in case mix adjusted length of stay. Benchmarking – using the method presented – shows the potential for efficiency improvement which can be realized by decreasing inputs (e.g. available beds for inpatient care). Future research should focus on the effect of length of stay reduction programs on outputs such as quality of care.</p

A Prospective Longitudinal Study of the Clinical Outcomes from Cryptococcal Meningitis following Treatment Induction with 800 mg Oral Fluconazole in Blantyre, Malawi

Introduction: Cryptococcal meningitis is the most common neurological infection in HIV infected patients in Sub Saharan Africa, where gold standard treatment with intravenous amphotericin B and 5 flucytosine is often unavailable or difficult to administer. Fluconazole monotherapy is frequently recommended in national guidelines but is a fungistatic drug compromised by uncertainty over optimal dosing and a paucity of clinical end-point outcome data. Methods: From July 2010 until March 2011, HIV infected adults with a first episode of cryptococcal meningitis were recruited at Queen Elizabeth Central Hospital, Blantyre, Malawi. Patients were treated with oral fluconazole monotherapy 800 mg daily, as per national guidelines. ART was started at 4 weeks. Outcomes and factors associated with treatment failure were assessed 4, 10 and 52 weeks after fluconazole initiation. Results: Sixty patients were recruited. 26/60 (43%) died by 4 weeks. 35/60 (58.0%) and 43/56 (77%) died or failed treatment by 10 or 52 weeks respectively. Reduced consciousness (Glasgow Coma Score ,14 of 15), moderate/severe neurological disability (modified Rankin Score .3 of 5) and confusion (Abbreviated Mental Test Score ,8 of 10) were all common at baseline and associated with death or treatment failure. ART prior to recruitment was not associated with better outcomes. Conclusions: Mortality and treatment failure from cryptococcal meningitis following initiation of treatment with 800 mg oral fluconazole is unacceptably high. To improve outcomes, there is an urgent need for better therapeutic strategies and point-of-care diagnostics, allowing earlier diagnosis before development of neurological deficit