Potential and timescales for oxygen depletion in coastal upwelling systems: A box-model analysis

A simple box model is used to examine oxygen depletion in an idealized ocean-margin upwelling system. Near-bottom oxygen depletion is controlled by a competition between flushing with oxygenated offshore source waters and respiration of particulate organic matter produced near the surface and retained near the bottom. Upwelling-supplied nutrients are consumed in the surface box, and some surface particles sink to the bottom where they respire, consuming oxygen. Steady states characterize the potential for hypoxic near-bottom oxygen depletion; this potential is greatest for faster sinking rates, and largely independent of production timescales except in that faster production allows faster sinking. Timescales for oxygen depletion depend on upwelling and productivity differently, however, as oxygen depletion can only be reached in meaningfully short times when productivity is rapid. Hypoxia thus requires fast production, to capture upwelled nutrients, and fast sinking, to deliver the respiration potential to model bottom waters. Combining timescales allows generalizations about tendencies toward hypoxia. If timescales of sinking are comparable to or smaller than the sum of those for respiration and flushing, the steady state will generally be hypoxic, and results indicate optimal timescales and conditions exist to generate hypoxia. For example, the timescale for approach to hypoxia lengthens with stronger upwelling, since surface particle and nutrient are shunted off-shelf, in turn reducing subsurface respiration and oxygen depletion. This suggests that if upwelling winds intensify with climate change the increased forcing could offer mitigation of coastal hypoxia, even as the oxygen levels in upwelled source waters decline

Mesoscale Effects on Carbon Export: A Global Perspective

Carbon export from the surface to the deep ocean is a primary control on global carbon budgets and is mediated by plankton that are sensitive to physical forcing. Earth system models generally do not resolve ocean mesoscale circulation ((10–100) km), scales that strongly affect transport of nutrients and plankton. The role of mesoscale circulation in modulating export is evaluated by comparing global ocean simulations conducted at 1∘ and 0.1∘ horizontal resolution. Mesoscale resolution produces a small reduction in globally integrated export production (\u3c2%); however, the impact on local export production can be large (±50%), with compensating effects in different ocean basins. With mesoscale resolution, improved representation of coastal jets block off-shelf transport, leading to lower export in regions where shelf-derived nutrients fuel production. Export is further reduced in these regions by resolution of mesoscale turbulence, which restricts the spatial area of production. Maximum mixed layer depths are narrower and deeper across the Subantarctic at higher resolution, driving locally stronger nutrient entrainment and enhanced summer export production. In energetic regions with seasonal blooms, such as the Subantarctic and North Pacific, internally generated mesoscale variability drives substantial interannual variation in local export production. These results suggest that biogeochemical tracer dynamics show different sensitivities to transport biases than temperature and salinity, which should be considered in the formulation and validation of physical parameterizations. Efforts to compare estimates of export production from observations and models should account for large variability in space and time expected for regions strongly affected by mesoscale circulation

Eddy-Modified Iron, Light, and Phytoplankton Cell Division Rates in the Simulated Southern Ocean

We examine the effects of Southern Ocean eddies on phytoplankton cell division rates in a global, multiyear, eddy‐resolving, 3‐D ocean simulation of the Community Earth System Model. We first identify and track eddies in the simulation and validate their distribution and demographics against observed eddy trajectory characteristics. Next, we examine how simulated cyclones and anticyclones differentially modify iron, light, and ultimately population‐specific cell division rates. We use an eddy‐centric, depth‐averaged framework to explicitly examine the dynamics of the phytoplankton population across the entire water column within an eddy. We find that population‐averaged iron availability is elevated in anticyclones throughout the year. The dominant mechanism responsible for vertically transporting iron from depth in anticyclones is eddy‐induced Ekman upwelling. During winter, in regions with deep climatological mixed layer depths, anticyclones also induce anomalously deep mixed layer depths, which further supply new iron from depth via an increased upward mixing flux. However, this additional contribution comes at the price of deteriorating light availability as biomass is distributed deeper in the water column. Therefore, even though population‐averaged specific division rates are elevated in Southern Ocean anticyclones throughout most of the year, in the winter, severe light stress can dominate relieved iron stress and lead to depressed division rates in some anticyclones, particularly in the deep mixing South Pacific Antarctic Circumpolar Current. The opposite is true in cyclones, which exhibit a consistently symmetric physical and biogeochemical response relative to anticyclones

The Simulated Biological Response to Southern Ocean Eddies via Biological Rate Modification and Physical Transport

We examine the structure and drivers of anomalous phytoplankton biomass in Southern Ocean eddies tracked in a global, multiyear, eddy-resolving, 3-D ocean simulation of the Community Earth System Model.We examine how simulated anticyclones and cyclones differentially modify phytoplankton biomass concentrations, growth rates, and physical transport. On average, cyclones induce negative division rate anomalies that drive negative net population growth rate anomalies, reduce dilution across shallower mixed layers, and advect biomass anomalously downward via eddy-induced Ekman pumping. The opposite is true in anticyclones. Lateral transport is dominated by eddy stirring rather than eddy trapping. The net effect on anomalous biomass can exceed 10–20% of background levels at the regional scale, consistent with observations. Moreover, we find a strong seasonality in the sign and magnitude of regional anomalies and the processes that drive them. The most dramatic seasonal cycle is found in the South Pacific Antarctic Circumpolar Current, where physical and biological processes dominate at different times, modifying biomass in different directions throughout the year. Here, in cyclones, during winter, anomalously shallow mixed layer depths first drive positive surface biomass anomalies via reduced dilution, and later drive positive depth-integrated biomass anomalies via reduced light limitation. During spring, reduced iron availability and elevated grazing rates suppress net population growth rates and drive the largest annual negative surface and depth-integrated biomass anomalies. During summer and fall, lateral stirring and eddy-induced Ekman pumping create small negative surface anomalies but positive depth-integrated anomalies. The same mechanisms drive biomass anomalies in the opposite direction in anticyclones

Potential Predictability of Net Primary Production in the Ocean

Interannual variations in marine net primary production (NPP) contribute to the variability of available living marine resources, as well as influence critical carbon cycle processes. Here we provide a global overview of near-term (1 to 10 years) potential predictability of marine NPP using a novel set of initialized retrospective decadal forecasts from an Earth System Model. Interannual variations in marine NPP are potentially predictable in many areas of the ocean 1 to 3 years in advance, from temperate waters to the tropics, showing a substantial improvement over a simple persistence forecast. However, some regions, such as the subpolar Southern Ocean, show low potential predictability.We analyze how bottom-up drivers of marine NPP (nutrients, light, and temperature) contribute to its predictability. Regions where NPP is primarily driven by the physical supply of nutrients (e.g., subtropics) retain higher potential predictability than high-latitude regions where NPP is controlled by light and/or temperature (e.g., the Southern Ocean).We further examine NPP predictability in the world\u27s Large Marine Ecosystems. With a few exceptions, we show that initialized forecasts improve potential predictability of NPP in Large Marine Ecosystems over a persistence forecast and may aid to manage living marine resources

Breeding Small Grains as a Forage, Silage and Cover Crop for the Southern Coastal Plain (USA) in a Changing Climatic Environment

Forage breeding of small grains in the southern Coastal Plains region of the U.S. mimic many other countries experiencing climate changes and breeding strategies should be similar for improving small grains grown for forage, silage or as cover crops. Significant focus on improvements in stress-adaptation has encouraged members of the SunGrains cooperative to cross, evaluate and develop experimental lines with inherent adaptation to climatic conditions including heat stress, drought tolerance, short-day and long-day forage production periods, and flooded conditions for events with storm-related, short-term durations. Many new cultivars, grown throughout the southeastern U.S. have resulted from breeding selection under abiotic and biotic stresses, adapted to climate change and related concerns, such as disease and insect pests

Loop Current Transport and Dispersal Dynamics in the Gulf of Mexico

Transport, connectivity, and dispersal both within and outside of the Gulf of Mexico impact important processes such as biological and pollutant dispersal. The Loop Current is a key flow feature within the Gulf of Mexico that affects transport. This research pairs Network Theory and Lagrangian oceanographic modeling (Lagrangian Flow Networks, LFN) to study the connectivity within the Gulf as a function of the Loop Current state. Surface-following particles are used to simulate Lagrangian transport over the observational record using a HYCOM ocean model reanalysis simulation coupled with the LFN particle tracking model computed on TACC supercomputers. The particle simulations are used to determine regions of connectivity, or hydrodynamic provinces, as a function of the Loop Current state, using machine learning. These provinces inform us about biological and pollutant transport variability, such as larval connectivity and harmful algal blooms

The Potential Impact of Nuclear Conflict on Ocean Acidification

We demonstrate that the global cooling resulting from a range of nuclear conflict scenarios would temporarily increase the pH in the surface ocean by up to 0.06 units over a 5-year period, briefly alleviating the decline in pH associated with ocean acidification. Conversely, the global cooling dissolves atmospheric carbon into the upper ocean, driving a 0.1 to 0.3 unit decrease in the aragonite saturation state (Ωarag) that persists for ∼10 years. The peak anomaly in pH occurs 2 years post conflict, while the Ωarag anomaly peaks 4- to 5-years post conflict. The decrease in Ωarag would exacerbate a primary threat of ocean acidification: the inability of marine calcifying organisms to maintain their shells/skeletons in a corrosive environment. Our results are based on sensitivity simulations conducted with a state-of-the-art Earth system model integrated under various black carbon (soot) external forcings. Our findings suggest that regional nuclear conflict may have ramifications for global ocean acidification

Rapidly expanding nuclear arsenals in Pakistan and India portend regional and global catastrophe

Pakistan and India may have 400 to 500 nuclear weapons by 2025 with yields from tested 12- to 45-kt values to a few hundred kilotons. If India uses 100 strategic weapons to attack urban centers and Pakistan uses 150, fatalities could reach 50 to 125 million people, and nuclear-ignited fires could release 16 to 36 Tg of black carbon in smoke, depending on yield. The smoke will rise into the upper troposphere, be self-lofted into the stratosphere, and spread globally within weeks. Surface sunlight will decline by 20 to 35%, cooling the global surface by 2° to 5°C and reducing precipitation by 15 to 30%, with larger regional impacts. Recovery takes more than 10 years. Net primary productivity declines 15 to 30% on land and 5 to 15% in oceans threatening mass starvation and additional worldwide collateral fatalities