Poorest countries experience earlier anthropogenic emergence of daily temperature extremes

Understanding how the emergence of the anthropogenic warming signal from the noise of internal variability translates to changes in extreme event occurrence is of crucial societal importance. By utilising simulations of cumulative carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and temperature changes from eleven earth system models, we demonstrate that the inherently lower internal variability found at tropical latitudes results in large increases in the frequency of extreme daily temperatures (exceedances of the 99.9th percentile derived from pre-industrial climate simulations) occurring much earlier than for mid-to-high latitude regions. Most of the world's poorest people live at low latitudes, when considering 2010 GDP-PPP per capita; conversely the wealthiest population quintile disproportionately inhabit more variable mid-latitude climates. Consequently, the fraction of the global population in the lowest socio-economic quintile is exposed to substantially more frequent daily temperature extremes after much lower increases in both mean global warming and cumulative CO2 emissions

Circulation analogues and uncertainty in the time-evolution of extreme event probabilities: evidence from the 1947 Central European heatwave

The science of extreme event attribution has rapidly expanded in recent years, with numerous studies dedicated to determining whether and to what extent anthropogenic climate change has increased the likelihood of specific extreme weather events occurring. However, the majority of such studies have focussed on extreme events which have occurred in the recent past (usually within the past 10 years) while minimal research efforts have considered the multitude of high-impact extreme climatic events which occurred throughout the instrumental record. This study proposes a framework to quantify how the likelihood of witnessing meteorological characteristics reminiscent of the 1947 Central European heatwave have evolved over time. We specifically examine circulation analogues as a tool to understand the relative role of dynamical and thermodynamic contributions to changes in the probability of experiencing similar heatwave events. Using a reanalysis-based dataset, our results show changes in the frequency of 1947-like extreme heat throughout the twentieth century to be highly sensitive to methodological choices, particularly in the context of disaggregating dynamic and thermodynamic changes in the risk of extreme heat. Evidence also suggests clear decadal variability in the occurrence of circulation patterns conducive to the 1947 heatwaves. Finally, we discuss how to appropriately consider the time-evolution of attribution statements, as well as the broader limitations of employing circulation analogues as a method to interrogate the dynamical contribution to the probability ratio of an extreme event

Population ageing determines changes in heat vulnerability to future warming

Population ageing, an increase in the older age group's portion of the total population, worsens the heat tolerance of a society. However, impacts of ageing on the social exposure to projected unprecedented hot summers (UHSs) are uncertain. We show that a shifting of the population distribution towards older ages amplifies the vulnerability of a country to the increasing frequency of UHSs as a result of warming during 2040-2070, especially in most populated regions such as China, India, and sub-Saharan countries. The warming scenarios from Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 are combined with population scenarios from three Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) SSP2, SSP3, and SSP5 together to estimate the exposure to UHSs. The ageing-driven increase in the exposure of elderly to UHSs ranges 51-198, 91-261, and 47-156 million in China, India, and sub-Saharan countries, respectively, between population scenarios. In China, with decreasing total population, the exposure to UHSs will be increased by rapid population ageing. In India and sub-Saharan countries, the potential of ageing to raise the exposure to UHSs will be even larger than that of warming. In contrast, in aged societies with slow ageing trend, e.g. United States and Europe, the warming mainly increases the exposure to UHSs. Our results suggest the changing age structure could exacerbate a country's heat vulnerability despite limiting warming to a certain level in the future

Impact of the Mt. Pinatubo volcaniceruption on the lower ionosphere andatmospheric waves over Central Europe

The very strong volcanic eruption of Mt. Pinatubo in June 1991 directly affected the troposphere and lower and middle stratosphere. Here we look at its effects in the mesopause region as revealed by the radio wave absorption measurements in the lower ionosphere over Central Europe and inferred planetary and gravity wave activity. The gravity wave activity inferred from the nighttime LF radio wave absorption displays an evident enhancement for waves of periods of about 2-3 h coinciding with regional measurements of the optical depth of (volcanic) aerosols, while there is no detectable effect for short period waves (T < 1 h). There is no detectable effect in the planetary wave activity inferred from the daytime HF radio wave absorption. As for the absorption itself, the results on the impact of the Mt. Pinatubo eruption do not provide an observable effect

α-Conotoxin Vc1.1 inhibits human dorsal root ganglion neuroexcitability and mouse colonic nociception via GABA\u3csub\u3eB\u3c/sub\u3e receptors

Objective α-Conotoxin Vc1.1 is a small disulfidebonded peptide from the venom of the marine cone snail Conus victoriae. Vc1.1 has antinociceptive actions in animal models of neuropathic pain, but its applicability to inhibiting human dorsal root ganglion (DRG) neuroexcitability and reducing chronic visceral pain (CVP) is unknown. Design We determined the inhibitory actions of Vc1.1 on human DRG neurons and on mouse colonic sensory afferents in healthy and chronic visceral hypersensitivity (CVH) states. In mice, visceral nociception was assessed by neuronal activation within the spinal cord in response to noxious colorectal distension (CRD). Quantitativereverse- transcription-PCR, single-cell-reversetranscription- PCR and immunohistochemistry determined ?-aminobutyric acid receptor B (GABABR) and voltagegated calcium channel (CaV2.2, CaV2.3) expression in human and mouse DRG neurons. Results Vc1.1 reduced the excitability of human DRG neurons, whereas a synthetic Vc1.1 analogue that is inactive at GABABR did not. Human DRG neurons expressed GABABR and its downstream effector channels CaV2.2 and CaV2.3. Mouse colonic DRG neurons exhibited high GABABR, CaV2.2 and CaV2.3 expression, with upregulation of the CaV2.2 exon-37a variant during CVH. Vc1.1 inhibited mouse colonic afferents ex vivo and nociceptive signalling of noxious CRD into the spinal cord in vivo, with greatest efficacy observed during CVH. A selective GABABR antagonist prevented Vc1.1-induced inhibition, whereas blocking both CaV2.2 and CaV2.3 caused inhibition comparable with Vc1.1 alone. Conclusions Vc1.1-mediated activation of GABABR is a novel mechanism for reducing the excitability of human DRG neurons. Vc1.1-induced activation of GABABR on the peripheral endings of colonic afferents reduces nociceptive signalling. The enhanced antinociceptive actions of Vc1.1 during CVH suggest it is a novel candidate for the treatment for CVP

Seasonal cycles enhance disparities between low- and high-income countries in exposure to monthly temperature emergence with future warming

A common proxy for the adaptive capacity of a community to the impacts of future climate change is the range of climate variability which they have experienced in the recent past. This study presents an interpretation of such a framework for monthly temperatures. Our results demonstrate that emergence into genuinely 'unfamiliar' climates will occur across nearly all months of the year for low-income nations by the second half of the 21st century under an RCP8.5 warming scenario. However, high income countries commonly experience a large seasonal cycle, owing to their position in the middle latitudes: as a consequence, temperature emergence for transitional months translates only to more-frequent occurrences of heat historically associated with the summertime. Projections beyond 2050 also show low-income countries will experience 2–10 months per year warmer than the hottest month experienced in recent memory, while high-income countries will witness between 1–4 months per year hotter than any month previously experienced. While both results represent significant departures that may bring substantive societal impacts if greenhouse gas emissions continue unabated, they also demonstrate that spatial patterns of emergence will compound existing differences between high and low income populations, in terms of their capacity to adapt to unprecedented future temperatures

Changes to population-based emergence of climate change from CMIP5 to CMIP6

The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) model ensemble projects climate change emerging soonest and most strongly at low latitudes, regardless of the emissions pathway taken. In terms of signal-to-noise (S/N) ratios of average annual temperatures, these models project earlier and stronger emergence under the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) than the previous generation did under corresponding Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). Spatial patterns of emergence also change between generations of models; under a high emissions scenario, mid-century S/N is lower than previous studies indicated in Central Africa, South Asia, and parts of South America, West Africa, East Asia, and Western Europe, but higher in most other populated areas. We show that these global and regional changes are caused by a combination of higher effective climate sensitivity (ECS) in the CMIP6 ensemble, as well as changes to emissions pathways, component-wise effective radiative forcing (ERF), and region-scale climate responses between model generations. We also present the first population-weighted calculation of climate change emergence for the CMIP6 ensemble, quantifying the number of people exposed to increasing degrees of abnormal temperatures now and into the future. Our results confirm the expected inequity of climate change-related impacts in the decades between now and the 2050 target for net-zero emissions held by many countries. These findings underscore the importance of concurrent investments in both mitigation and adaptation

Multiple sodium channel isoforms mediate the pathological effects of Pacific ciguatoxin-1

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in the credit line; if the material is not included under the Creative Commons license, users will need to obtain permission from the license holder to reproduce the material. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Human intoxication with the seafood poison ciguatoxin, a dinoflagellate polyether that activates voltage-gated sodium channels (NaV), causes ciguatera, a disease characterised by gastrointestinal and neurological disturbances. We assessed the activity of the most potent congener, Pacific ciguatoxin-1 (P-CTX-1), on NaV1.1–1.9 using imaging and electrophysiological approaches. Although P-CTX-1 is essentially a non-selective NaV toxin and shifted the voltage-dependence of activation to more hyperpolarising potentials at all NaV subtypes, an increase in the inactivation time constant was observed only at NaV1.8, while the slope factor of the conductance-voltage curves was significantly increased for NaV1.7 and peak current was significantly increased for NaV1.6. Accordingly, P-CTX-1-induced visceral and cutaneous pain behaviours were significantly decreased after pharmacological inhibition of NaV1.8 and the tetrodotoxin-sensitive isoforms NaV1.7 and NaV1.6, respectively. The contribution of these isoforms to excitability of peripheral C- and A-fibre sensory neurons, confirmed using murine skin and visceral single-fibre recordings, reflects the expression pattern of NaV isoforms in peripheral sensory neurons and their contribution to membrane depolarisation, action potential initiation and propagation