Estimating net climate impacts of timber production and utilization in fossil-fuel intensive material and energy substitution

We utilized an ecosystem model and life cycle assessment tool for studying carbon flows between the ecosystem, technosystem and atmosphere for scenarios utilizing forest biomass (bio-system) against fossil-fuel intensive materials (fossil-system). The net climate impacts were studied for a Norway spruce stand over two consecutive rotation periods in the boreal conditions in central Finland. The effects of alternative forest management on the carbon dynamics in the bio-system were studied in comparison with the fossil-system, by using an unmanaged and baseline thinning regime. The results showed that the bio-system produced carbon benefits compared to the similar system with the use of fossil-fuel intensive materials and energy. The unmanaged stand stored the highest amount of carbon and retained carbon the longest when solely the ecosystem was considered. Studying the ecosystem and the technosystem together, the bio-system was found effective in storing and increasing the residence of carbon with or without changing the life span of biomass-based products. We found that the increase of the life span of biomass-based products could reduce emissions up to 0.28 tCO2.ha-1.year-1 depending on the management regimes over the study period.The accepted manuscript in pdf format is listed with the files at the bottom of this page. The presentation of the authors' names and (or) special characters in the title of the manuscript may differ slightly between what is listed on this page and what is listed in the pdf file of the accepted manuscript; that in the pdf file of the accepted manuscript is what was submitted by the author

Potentials of forest biomass production and utilization in climate change mitigation in managed boreal forests

201

Regional effects of alternative climate change and management scenarios on timber production, economic profitability and carbon stocks in Norway spruce forests in Finland

We studied regional effects of alternative climate change and management scenarios on timber production, its economic profitability (NPV with 2% interest rate) and carbon stocks over a 90 years simulation period in Norway spruce forests located in southern, central and northern Finland. We also compared the results of optimised management plans (maximizing incomes) and fixed management scenarios. Business-as-usual (BAU) management recommendations were used as basis for alternative management scenarios. The forest ecosystem model SIMA together with a forest optimisation tool was employed. To consider the uncertainties related to climate change, we applied two climate change scenarios (SRES B1 and A2) in addition to the current climate. Results showed that timber production, NPV and carbon stocks of forests would reduce in southern Finland, opposite to northern Finland, and especially under the strong climate change scenario (SRES A2) compared to the current climate. In central Finland, climate change would have little effect. The use of optimised management plans also resulted in higher timber yield, NPV and carbon stock of forests compared to the use of a single management scenario, regardless of forest region and climate scenario applied. In the future, we may need to modify the current BAU management recommendations to properly adapt to the changing climatic conditions.The accepted manuscript in pdf format is listed with the files at the bottom of this page. The presentation of the authors' names and (or) special characters in the title of the manuscript may differ slightly between what is listed on this page and what is listed in the pdf file of the accepted manuscript; that in the pdf file of the accepted manuscript is what was submitted by the author

Temporal and Spatial Change in Diameter Growth of Boreal Scots Pine, Norway Spruce, and Birch under Recent-Generation (CMIP5) Global Climate Model Projections for the 21st Century

201

Applying a framework for landscape planning under climate change for the conservation of biodiversity in the Finnish boreal forest

Conservation strategies are often established without consideration of the impact of climate change. However, this impact is expected to threaten species and ecosystem persistence and to have dramatic effects towards the end of the 21st century. Landscape suitability for species under climate change is determined by several interacting factors including dispersal and human land use. Designing effective conservation strategies at regional scales to improve landscape suitability requires measuring the vulnerabilities of specific regions to climate change and determining their conservation capacities. Although methods for defining vulnerability categories are available, methods for doing this in a systematic, cost-effective way have not been identified. Here, we use an ecosystem model to define the potential resilience of the Finnish forest landscape by relating its current conservation capacity to its vulnerability to climate change. In applying this framework, we take into account the responses to climate change of a broad range of red-listed species with different niche requirements. This framework allowed us to identify four categories in which representation in the landscape varies among three IPCC emission scenarios (B1, low; A1B, intermediate; A2, high emissions): (i) susceptible (B1 = 24.7%, A1B = 26.4%, A2 = 26.2%), the most intact forest landscapes vulnerable to climate change, requiring management for heterogeneity and resilience; (ii) resilient (B1 = 2.2%, A1B = 0.5%, A2 = 0.6%), intact areas with low vulnerability that represent potential climate refugia and require conservation capacity maintenance; (iii) resistant (B1 = 6.7%, A1B = 0.8%, A2 = 1.1%), landscapes with low current conservation capacity and low vulnerability that are suitable for restoration projects; (iv) sensitive (B1 = 66.4%, A1B = 72.3%, A2 = 72.0%), low conservation capacity landscapes that are vulnerable and for which alternative conservation measures are required depending on the intensity of climate change. Our results indicate that the Finnish landscape is likely to be dominated by a very high proportion of sensitive and susceptible forest patches, thereby increasing uncertainty for landscape managers in the choice of conservation strategies.peerReviewe

Habitat associations drive species vulnerability to climate change in boreal forests

Species climate change vulnerability, their predisposition to be adversely affected, has been assessed for a limited portion of biodiversity. Our knowledge of climate change impacts is often based only on exposure, the magnitude of climatic variation in the area occupied by the species, even if species sensitivity, the species ability to tolerate climatic variations determined by traits, plays a key role in determining vulnerability. We analyse the role of species' habitat associations, a proxy for sensitivity, in explaining vulnerability for two poorly-known but species-rich taxa in boreal forest, saproxylic beetles and fungi, using three IPCC emissions scenarios. Towards the end of the 21st century we projected an improvement in habitat quality associated with an increase of deadwood, an important resource for species, as a consequence of increased tree growth under high emissions scenarios. However, climate change will potentially reduce habitat suitability for similar to 9-43 % of the threatened deadwood-associated species. This loss is likely caused by future increase in timber extraction and decomposition rates causing higher deadwood turnover, which have a strong negative effect on boreal forest biodiversity. Our results are species-and scenario-specific. Diversified forest management and restoration ensuring deadwood resources in the landscape would allow the persistence of species whose capacity of delivering important supporting ecosystem services can be undermined by climate change.201

Effects of CMIP5 Projections on Volume Growth, Carbon Stock and Timber Yield in Managed Scots Pine, Norway Spruce and Silver Birch Stands under Southern and Northern Boreal Conditions

We investigated how recent-generation (CMIP5) global climate model projections affect the volume growth, carbon stock, timber yield and its profitability in managed Scots pine, Norway spruce and Silver birch stands on medium fertile upland sites under southern and northern boreal conditions in Finland. Forest ecosystem model simulations were conducted for the current climate and changing climate, under two representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5), using 10 individual global climate model (GCM) projections. In addition to the baseline thinning, we maintained either 20% higher or lower stocking in thinning over a 90-year period. In the south, the severe climate projections, such as HadGEM2-ES RCP8.5 and GFDL-CM3 RCP8.5, as opposed to MPI-ESM-MR RCP4.5, considerably decreased the volume growth, carbon stock and timber yield, as well as its profitability, in Norway spruce stands, but also partially in Scots pine stands, compared to the current climate. Silver birch gained the most from the climate change in the south and Scots pine in the north. The impacts of the thinning regime varied, depending on tree species, site and climate applied. Depending on the severity of the climate change, even opposing adaptive management measures may be needed in different boreal regions

Adaptation of forest ecosystems, forests and forestry to climate change. FINADAPT Working Paper 4

In this study, an ecosystem model (Sima), capable of predicting ecosystem level functioning of boreal forests, was used together with a permanent sample plot data of the Finnish national forest inventory (measured in 1995) and different climate scenarios to analyze, how increase in temperature, precipitation and atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration may effect forest growth and dynamics in Finnish conditions. The simulations showed that the forest ecosystems are most impacted in the most northern and in the most southern parts of the country (2000-2099). In the north, the productivity of the forest ecosystems may increase substantially. In this respect, the northern forests may provide many opportunities for forestry and timber production. In southern Finland, the climate change may also increase in general the productivity of the forest ecosystems. However, it may also create environment suboptimal for Norway spruce, the growth of which may reduce throughout southern and central parts of the country. The dominance of Scots pine may increase on less fertile sites currently occupied by Norway spruce. Birch may compete with Scots pine even in these sites, and the dominance of birch may increase. The management of Finnish forests should therefore be adapted to meet the higher productivity and changing tree species composition in the future. These expected changes in growth and trees species composition may have locally negative effect on the total growth in Southern Finland, but at the nation-wide the total growth may increase up to 44 %, with an increase up to 82 % in the sustainable potential total cutting drain over the country