Prediction model and prognostic index to estimate clinically relevant pelvic organ prolapse in a general female population

Introduction and hypothesis: Estimation on prevalence and distribution of pelvic organ prolapse (POP) signs in a general female population is difficult. We therefore developed and validated

Predicting hospital stay, mortality and readmission in people admitted for hypoglycaemia: prognostic models derivation and validation

Aims/hypothesis: Hospital admissions for hypoglycaemia represent a significant burden on individuals with diabetes and have a substantial economic impact on healthcare systems. To date, no prognostic models have been developed to predict outcomes following admission for hypoglycaemia. We aimed to develop and validate prediction models to estimate risk of inpatient death, 24 h discharge and one month readmission in people admitted to hospital for hypoglycaemia. Methods: We used the Hospital Episode Statistics database, which includes data on all hospital admission to National Health Service hospital trusts in England, to extract admissions for hypoglycaemia between 2010 and 2014. We developed, internally and temporally validated, and compared two prognostic risk models for each outcome. The first model included age, sex, ethnicity, region, social deprivation and Charlson score (‘base’ model). In the second model, we added to the ‘base’ model the 20 most common medical conditions and applied a stepwise backward selection of variables (‘disease’ model). We used C-index and calibration plots to assess model performance and developed a calculator to estimate probabilities of outcomes according to individual characteristics. Results: In derivation samples, 296 out of 11,136 admissions resulted in inpatient death, 1789/33,825 in one month readmission and 8396/33,803 in 24 h discharge. Corresponding values for validation samples were: 296/10,976, 1207/22,112 and 5363/22,107. The two models had similar discrimination. In derivation samples, C-indices for the base and disease models, respectively, were: 0.77 (95% CI 0.75, 0.80) and 0.78 (0.75, 0.80) for death, 0.57 (0.56, 0.59) and 0.57 (0.56, 0.58) for one month readmission, and 0.68 (0.67, 0.69) and 0.69 (0.68, 0.69) for 24 h discharge. Corresponding values in validation samples were: 0.74 (0.71, 0.76) and 0.74 (0.72, 0.77), 0.55 (0.54, 0.57) and 0.55 (0.53, 0.56), and 0.66 (0.65, 0.67) and 0.67 (0.66, 0.68). In both derivation and validation samples, calibration plots showed good agreement for the three outcomes. We developed a calculator of probabilities for inpatient death and 24 h discharge given the low performance of one month readmission models. Conclusions/interpretation: This simple and pragmatic tool to predict in-hospital death and 24 h discharge has the potential to reduce mortality and improve discharge in people admitted for hypoglycaemia

Food web persistence is enhanced by non-trophic interactions.

The strength of interspecific interactions is often proposed to affect food web stability, with weaker interactions increasing the persistence of species, and food webs as a whole. However, the mechanisms that modify interaction strengths, and their effects on food web persistence are not fully understood. Using food webs containing different combinations of predator, prey, and nonprey species, we investigated how predation risk of susceptible prey is affected by the presence of species not directly trophically linked to either predators or prey. We predicted that indirect alterations to the strength of trophic interactions translate to changes in persistence time of extinction-prone species. We assembled interaction webs of protist consumers and turbellarian predators with eight different combinations of prey, predators and nonprey species, and recorded abundances for over 130 prey generations. Persistence of predation-susceptible species was increased by the presence of nonprey. Furthermore, multiple nonprey species acted synergistically to increase prey persistence, such that persistence was greater than would be predicted from the dynamics of simpler food webs. We also found evidence suggesting increased food web complexity may weaken interspecific competition, increasing persistence of poorer competitors. Our results demonstrate that persistence times in complex food webs cannot be predicted from the dynamics of simplified systems, and that species not directly involved in consumptive interactions likely play key roles in maintaining persistence. Global species diversity is currently declining at an unprecedented rate and our findings reveal that concurrent loss of species that modify trophic interactions may have unpredictable consequences for food web stability

Asparagine bioavailability governs metastasis in a model of breast cancer.

Using a functional model of breast cancer heterogeneity, we previously showed that clonal sub-populations proficient at generating circulating tumour cells were not all equally capable of forming metastases at secondary sites. A combination of differential expression and focused in vitro and in vivo RNA interference screens revealed candidate drivers of metastasis that discriminated metastatic clones. Among these, asparagine synthetase expression in a patient's primary tumour was most strongly correlated with later metastatic relapse. Here we show that asparagine bioavailability strongly influences metastatic potential. Limiting asparagine by knockdown of asparagine synthetase, treatment with l-asparaginase, or dietary asparagine restriction reduces metastasis without affecting growth of the primary tumour, whereas increased dietary asparagine or enforced asparagine synthetase expression promotes metastatic progression. Altering asparagine availability in vitro strongly influences invasive potential, which is correlated with an effect on proteins that promote the epithelial-to-mesenchymal transition. This provides at least one potential mechanism for how the bioavailability of a single amino acid could regulate metastatic progression

Long-term effects of an inpatient weight-loss program in obese children and the role of genetic predisposition-rationale and design of the LOGIC-trial

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The prevalence of childhood obesity has increased worldwide, which is a serious concern as obesity is associated with many negative immediate and long-term health consequences. Therefore, the treatment of overweight and obesity in children and adolescents is strongly recommended. Inpatient weight-loss programs have shown to be effective particularly regarding short-term weight-loss, whilst little is known both on the long-term effects of this treatment and the determinants of successful weight-loss and subsequent weight maintenance.</p> <p>The purpose of this study is to evaluate the short, middle and long-term effects of an inpatient weight-loss program for children and adolescents and to investigate the likely determinants of weight changes, whereby the primary focus lies on the potential role of differences in polymorphisms of adiposity-relevant genes.</p> <p>Methods/Design</p> <p>The study involves overweight and obese children and adolescents aged 6 to 19 years, who participate in an inpatient weight-loss program for 4 to 6 weeks. It started in 2006 and it is planned to include 1,500 participants by 2013. The intervention focuses on diet, physical activity and behavior therapy. Measurements are taken at the start and the end of the intervention and comprise blood analyses (DNA, lipid and glucose metabolism, adipokines and inflammatory markers), anthropometry (body weight, height and waist circumference), blood pressure, pubertal stage, and exercise capacity. Physical activity, dietary habits, quality of life, and family background are assessed by questionnaires. Follow-up assessments are performed 6 months, 1, 2, 5 and 10 years after the intervention: Children will complete the same questionnaires at all time points and visit their general practitioner for examination of anthropometric parameters, blood pressure and assessment of pubertal stage. At the 5 and 10 year follow-ups, blood parameters and exercise capacity will be additionally measured.</p> <p>Discussion</p> <p>Apart from illustrating the short, middle and long-term effects of an inpatient weight-loss program, this study will contribute to a better understanding of inter-individual differences in the regulation of body weight, taking into account the role of genetic predisposition and lifestyle factors.</p> <p>Trial Registration</p> <p><a href="http://www.clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT01067157">NCT01067157</a>.</p

Catchment-scale biogeography of riverine bacterioplankton

Lotic ecosystems such as rivers and streams are unique in that they represent a continuum of both space and time during the transition from headwaters to the river mouth. As microbes have very different controls over their ecology, distribution and dispersion compared with macrobiota, we wished to explore biogeographical patterns within a river catchment and uncover the major drivers structuring bacterioplankton communities. Water samples collected across the River Thames Basin, UK, covering the transition from headwater tributaries to the lower reaches of the main river channel were characterised using 16S rRNA gene pyrosequencing. This approach revealed an ecological succession in the bacterial community composition along the river continuum, moving from a community dominated by Bacteroidetes in the headwaters to Actinobacteria-dominated downstream. Location of the sampling point in the river network (measured as the cumulative water channel distance upstream) was found to be the most predictive spatial feature; inferring that ecological processes pertaining to temporal community succession are of prime importance in driving the assemblages of riverine bacterioplankton communities. A decrease in bacterial activity rates and an increase in the abundance of low nucleic acid bacteria relative to high nucleic acid bacteria were found to correspond with these downstream changes in community structure, suggesting corresponding functional changes. Our findings show that bacterial communities across the Thames basin exhibit an ecological succession along the river continuum, and that this is primarily driven by water residence time rather than the physiochemical status of the river

A statistical framework for cross-tissue transcriptome-wide association analysis

Transcriptome-wide association analysis is a powerful approach to studying the genetic architecture of complex traits. A key component of this approach is to build a model to impute gene expression levels from genotypes by using samples with matched genotypes and gene expression data in a given tissue. However, it is challenging to develop robust and accurate imputation models with a limited sample size for any single tissue. Here, we first introduce a multi-task learning method to jointly impute gene expression in 44 human tissues. Compared with single-tissue methods, our approach achieved an average of 39% improvement in imputation accuracy and generated effective imputation models for an average of 120% more genes. We describe a summary-statistic-based testing framework that combines multiple single-tissue associations into a powerful metric to quantify the overall gene–trait association. We applied our method, called UTMOST (unified test for molecular signatures), to multiple genome-wide-association results and demonstrate its advantages over single-tissue strategies

Serological and molecular epidemiology of canine adenovirus type 1 in red foxes (<i>Vulpes vulpes</i>) in the United Kingdom

Canine adenovirus type 1 (CAV-1) causes infectious canine hepatitis (ICH), a frequently fatal disease which primarily affects canids. In this study, serology (ELISA) and molecular techniques (PCR/qPCR) were utilised to investigate the exposure of free-ranging red foxes (Vulpes vulpes) to CAV-1 in the United Kingdom (UK) and to examine their role as a wildlife reservoir of infection for susceptible species. The role of canine adenovirus type 2 (CAV-2), primarily a respiratory pathogen, was also explored. In foxes with no evidence of ICH on post-mortem examination, 29 of 154 (18.8%) red foxes had inapparent infections with CAV-1, as detected by a nested PCR, in a range of samples, including liver, kidney, spleen, brain, and lung. CAV-1 was detected in the urine of three red foxes with inapparent infections. It was estimated that 302 of 469 (64.4%) red foxes were seropositive for canine adenovirus (CAV) by ELISA. CAV-2 was not detected by PCR in any red foxes examined. Additional sequence data were obtained from CAV-1 positive samples, revealing regional variations in CAV-1 sequences. It is concluded that CAV-1 is endemic in free-ranging red foxes in the UK and that many foxes have inapparent infections in a range of tissues

Association of body temperature with obesity. The CoLaus study.

There is conflicting evidence regarding the association between body temperature and obesity. We aimed to assess the associations between body temperature and several adiposity and metabolic markers according to gender and menopausal status in a large population-based sample. The data collected between 2009 and 2012 from 4224 participants (mean age 57.3 ± 10.4 years, 2225 women) of the CoLaus study (Lausanne, Switzerland). Body temperature was measured at the tympanic membrane. Mean body temperature was 36.1 ± 0.4, 36.4 ± 0.4 and 36.3 ± 0.4 °C in men, premenopausal, and postmenopausal women, respectively (p &lt; 0.001). In men and postmenopausal women, body temperature was positively and significantly (p &lt; 0.05) associated with body mass index (Spearman correlation coefficients 0.157 and 0.083, respectively), waist (r = 0.163 and r = 0.104), waist to hip ratio (r = 0.187 and r = 0.132), body area (r = 0.094 and r = 0.085), resting heart rate (r = 0.227 and r = 182), glucose (r = 0.104 and r = 0.088) and insulin (r = 0.148 and r = 0.117). Except for body area and BMI in postmenopausal women, all associations remained significant after multivariable adjustment. In premenopausal women, body temperature was positively associated with resting heart rate (r = 0.140) and insulin (r = 0.170), and no significant associations were found after multivariable adjustment. Body temperature is strongly associated with obesity markers in men and postmenopausal women. The absence of association in premenopausal women might be due to the influence of the menstrual cycle