Clinical judgement and therapeutic decision making

AbstractClinical decision making is under increased scrutiny due to concerns about the cost and quality of medical care. Variability in physician decision making is common, in part because of deficiencies in the knowledge base, but also due to the difference in physicians' approaches to clinical problem solving. Evaluation of patient prognosis is a critical factor in the selection of therapy, and careful attention to methodology is essential to provide reliable information.Randomized controlled clinical trials provide the most solid basis for the establishment of broad therapeutic principles. Because randomized studies cannot be performed to address every question, observational studies will continue to play a complementary role in the evaluation of therapy. Randomized studies in progress, meta analyses of existing data, and increased use of administrative and collaborative clinical data bases will improve the knowledge base for decision making in the future

Importance of clinical measures of ischemia in the prognosis of patients with documented coronary artery disease

AbstractTo examine the value of clinical measures of ischemia for stratifying prognosis, 5,886 consecutive patients who had symptomatic significant (≥75% stenosis) coronary artery disease were studied. Using the Cox regression model in a randomly selected half of the patients, the prognostically independent clinical variables were weighted and arranged into a simple angina score: angina score = angina course × (1 + daily angina frequency) + ST-T changes, where angina course was equal to 3 if unstable or variant angina was present, 2 if the patient's angina was progressive with nocturnal episodes, 1 if it was progressive without nocturnal symptoms and 0 if it was stable; 6 points were added for the presence of “ischemic” ST-T changes. This angina score was then validated in an independent patient sample.The score was a more powerful predictor of prognosis than was any individual anginal descriptor. Furthermore, the angina score added significant independent prognostic information to the patient's age, sex, coronary anatomy and left ventricular function. Patients with three vessel disease and a normal ventricle (n = 1,233) had a 2 year infarction-free survival rate of 90% with an angina score of 0 and a 68% survival rate with an angina score ≥9. With an ejection fraction <50% and three vessel disease (n = 1,116), the corresponding infarction-free survival figures were 76 and 56%. Thus, a careful summarization of clinical markers of ischemia in the form of an angina score can provide a powerful prognostic tool and may aid clinicians in identifying high risk patients who are candidates for aggressive therapeutic interventions

Relationship Between Time in Therapeutic Range and Comparative Treatment Effect of Rivaroxaban and Warfarin: Results From the ROCKET AF Trial

Background: Time in therapeutic range (TTR) is a standard quality measure of the use of warfarin. We assessed the relative effects of rivaroxaban versus warfarin at the level of trial center TTR (cTTR) since such analysis preserves randomized comparisons. Methods and Results: TTR was calculated using the Rosendaal method, without exclusion of international normalized ratio (INR) values performed during warfarin initiation. Measurements during warfarin interruptions >7 days were excluded. INRs were performed via standardized finger‐stick point‐of‐care devices at least every 4 weeks. The primary efficacy endpoint (stroke or non‐central nervous system embolism) was examined by quartiles of cTTR and by cTTR as a continuous function. Centers with the highest cTTRs by quartile had lower‐risk patients as reflected by lower CHADS2 scores (P<0.0001) and a lower prevalence of prior stroke or transient ischemic attack (P<0.0001). Sites with higher cTTR were predominantly from North America and Western Europe. The treatment effect of rivaroxaban versus warfarin on the primary endpoint was consistent across a wide range of cTTRs (P value for interaction=0.71). The hazard of major and non‐major clinically relevant bleeding increased with cTTR (P for interaction=0.001), however, the estimated reduction by rivaroxaban compared with warfarin in the hazard of intracranial hemorrhage was preserved across a wide range of threshold cTTR values. Conclusions: The treatment effect of rivaroxaban compared with warfarin for the prevention of stroke and systemic embolism is consistent regardless of cTTR

Evaluation of clinical prediction models (part 1):from development to external validation

Evaluating the performance of a clinical prediction model is crucial to establish its predictive accuracy in the populations and settings intended for use. In this article, the first in a three part series, Collins and colleagues describe the importance of a meaningful evaluation using internal, internal-external, and external validation, as well as exploring heterogeneity, fairness, and generalisability in model performance

Factors Influencing the Statistical Power of Complex Data Analysis Protocols for Molecular Signature Development from Microarray Data

Critical to the development of molecular signatures from microarray and other high-throughput data is testing the statistical significance of the produced signature in order to ensure its statistical reproducibility. While current best practices emphasize sufficiently powered univariate tests of differential expression, little is known about the factors that affect the statistical power of complex multivariate analysis protocols for high-dimensional molecular signature development.We show that choices of specific components of the analysis (i.e., error metric, classifier, error estimator and event balancing) have large and compounding effects on statistical power. The effects are demonstrated empirically by an analysis of 7 of the largest microarray cancer outcome prediction datasets and supplementary simulations, and by contrasting them to prior analyses of the same data.THE FINDINGS OF THE PRESENT STUDY HAVE TWO IMPORTANT PRACTICAL IMPLICATIONS: First, high-throughput studies by avoiding under-powered data analysis protocols, can achieve substantial economies in sample required to demonstrate statistical significance of predictive signal. Factors that affect power are identified and studied. Much less sample than previously thought may be sufficient for exploratory studies as long as these factors are taken into consideration when designing and executing the analysis. Second, previous highly-cited claims that microarray assays may not be able to predict disease outcomes better than chance are shown by our experiments to be due to under-powered data analysis combined with inappropriate statistical tests

Imaging of Bubonic Plague Dynamics by In Vivo Tracking of Bioluminescent Yersinia pestis

Yersinia pestis dissemination in a host is usually studied by enumerating bacteria in the tissues of animals sacrificed at different times. This laborious methodology gives only snapshots of the infection, as the infectious process is not synchronized. In this work we used in vivo bioluminescence imaging (BLI) to follow Y. pestis dissemination during bubonic plague. We first demonstrated that Y. pestis CO92 transformed with pGEN-luxCDABE stably emitted bioluminescence in vitro and in vivo, while retaining full virulence. The light produced from live animals allowed to delineate the infected organs and correlated with bacterial loads, thus validating the BLI tool. We then showed that the first step of the infectious process is a bacterial multiplication at the injection site (linea alba), followed by a colonization of the draining inguinal lymph node(s), and subsequently of the ipsilateral axillary lymph node through a direct connection between the two nodes. A mild bacteremia and an effective filtering of the blood stream by the liver and spleen probably accounted for the early bacterial blood clearance and the simultaneous development of bacterial foci within these organs. The saturation of the filtering capacity of the spleen and liver subsequently led to terminal septicemia. Our results also indicate that secondary lymphoid tissues are the main targets of Y. pestis multiplication and that colonization of other organs occurs essentially at the terminal phase of the disease. Finally, our analysis reveals that the high variability in the kinetics of infection is attributable to the time the bacteria remain confined at the injection site. However, once Y. pestis has reached the draining lymph nodes, the disease progresses extremely rapidly, leading to the invasion of the entire body within two days and to death of the animals. This highlights the extraordinary capacity of Y. pestis to annihilate the host innate immune response

A preliminary fishery quality index for Portuguese streams

There is a need to quantify the multivariate quality of a recreational fishery at the site scale to better communicate the relative quality among sites to the public and anglers. Borrowing on the general approach of multimetric indices of biotic integrity (IBIs), we developed fishery quality indices (FQIs) from species quality indices (SQIs) based on measures of fish abundance and size structure for northern and central Portuguese streams. Our FQIs showed regional patterns indicating a range in fishery quality. Higher coldwater FQI scores were mostly found in the northwestern (Minho and Lima), northeastern Douro, and northern Tagus basins. Higher warmwater FQI scores occurred in the eastern Tagus basin. The species that contributed the most to warmwater FQI scores were largemouth bass Micropterus salmoides, pumpkinseed Lepomis gibbosus, the cyprinid Luciobarbus bocagei, chubs Squalius carolitertii and S. pyrenaicus, and nases Pseudochondrostoma duriense and P. polylepis. The chubs, nases, and brown trout Salmo trutta contributed the most to coldwater FQI scores. As expected, our indices were correlated with river size and with disturbance at the catchment, segment, and site scales. Regression models for separate coldwater and warmwater FQIs were stronger than those for the individual SQIs and for an all-site FQI. The correlation was positive between the coldwater FQI and a coldwater IBI but negative between the warmwater FQI and warmwater IBIs. The proposed FQIs offer a quantitative approach for assessing relative fishery quality among sites and for making regional assessments given an appropriate study design. The component SQIs and SQI metrics of the FQIs can be disassociated to determine the population and species characteristics most affected by various environmental variables

Daily angina documentation versus subsequent recall: development of a symptom smartphone app

Aims: The traditional approach to documenting angina outcomes in clinical trials is to ask the patient to recall their symptoms at the end of a month. With the ubiquitous availability of smartphones and tablets, daily contemporaneous documentation might be possible. Methods and results: The ORBITA-2 symptom smartphone app was developed with a user-centred iterative design and testing cycle involving a focus group of previous ORBITA participants. The feasibility and acceptability were assessed in an internal pilot of participants in the ongoing ORBITA-2 trial. Seven days of app entries by ORBITA-2 participants were compared with subsequent participant recall at the end of the 7-day period. The design focus group tested a prototype app. They reported that the final version captured their symptoms and was easy to use. In the completion assessment group, 141 of 142 (99%) completed the app in full and 47 of 141 (33%) without reminders. In the recall assessment group, 29 of 29 (100%) participants said they could recall the previous day’s symptoms, and 82% of them recalled correctly. For 2 days previously, 88% said they could recall and of those, 87% recalled correctly. The proportion saying they could recall their symptoms fell progressively thereafter: 89, 67, 61, 50%, and at 7 days, 55% (P < 0.001 for trend). The proportion of recalling correctly also fell progressively to 55% at 7 days (P = 0.04 for trend). Conclusion: Episode counts of angina are difficult to recall after a few days. For trials such as ORBITA-2 focusing on angina, daily symptom collection via a smartphone app will increase the validity of the results

Desmoglein 2 mutant mice develop cardiac fibrosis and dilation

Desmosomes are cell–cell adhesion sites and part of the intercalated discs, which couple adjacent cardiomyocytes. The connection is formed by the extracellular domains of desmosomal cadherins that are also linked to the cytoskeleton on the cytoplasmic side. To examine the contribution of the desmosomal cadherin desmoglein 2 to cardiomyocyte adhesion and cardiac function, mutant mice were prepared lacking a part of the extracellular adhesive domain of desmoglein 2. Most live born mutant mice presented normal overall cardiac morphology at 2 weeks. Some animals, however, displayed extensive fibrotic lesions. Later on, mutants developed ventricular dilation leading to cardiac insufficiency and eventually premature death. Upon histological examination, cardiomyocyte death by calcifying necrosis and replacement by fibrous tissue were observed. Fibrotic lesions were highly proliferative in 2-week-old mutants, whereas the fibrotic lesions of older mutants showed little proliferation indicating the completion of local muscle replacement by scar tissue. Disease progression correlated with increased mRNA expression of c-myc, ANF, BNF, CTGF and GDF15, which are markers for cardiac stress, remodeling and heart failure. Taken together, the desmoglein 2-mutant mice display features of dilative cardiomyopathy and arrhythmogenic right ventricular cardiomyopathy, an inherited human heart disease with pronounced fibrosis and ventricular arrhythmias that has been linked to mutations in desmosomal proteins including desmoglein 2