Using the stochastic Galerkin method as a predictive tool during an epidemic

The ability to accurately predict the course of an epidemic is extremely important. This article looks at an influenza outbreak that spread through a small boarding school. Predictions are made on multiple days throughout the epidemic using the stochastic Galerkin method to consider a range of plausible values for the parameters. These predictions are then compared to known data points. Predictions made before the peak of the epidemic had much larger variances compared to predictions made after the peak of the epidemic. References B. M. Chen-Charpentier, J. C. Cortes, J. V. Romero, and M. D. Rosello. Some recommendations for applying gPC (generalized polynomial chaos) to modeling: An analysis through the Airy random differential equation. Applied Mathematics and Computation, 219(9):4208 – 4218, 2013. doi:10.1016/j.amc.2012.11.007 B. M. Chen-Charpentier and D. Stanescu. Epidemic models with random coefficients. Mathematical and Computer Modelling, 52:1004 – 1010, 2010. doi:10.1016/j.mcm.2010.01.014 D. B. Harman and P. R. Johnston. Applying the stochastic galerkin method to epidemic models with individualised parameter distributions. In Proceedings of the 12th Biennial Engineering Mathematics and Applications Conference, EMAC-2015, volume 57 of ANZIAM J., pages C160–C176, August 2016. doi:10.21914/anziamj.v57i0.10394 D. B. Harman and P. R. Johnston. Applying the stochastic galerkin method to epidemic models with uncertainty in the parameters. Mathematical Biosciences, 277:25 – 37, 2016. doi:10.1016/j.mbs.2016.03.012 D. B. Harman and P. R. Johnston. Boarding house: find border. 2019. doi:10.6084/m9.figshare.7699844.v1 D. B. Harman and P. R. Johnston. SIR uniform equations. 2 2019. doi:10.6084/m9.figshare.7692392.v1 H. W. Hethcote. The mathematics of infectious diseases. SIAM Review, 42(4):599–653, 2000. doi:10.1137/S0036144500371907 R.I. Hickson and M.G. Roberts. How population heterogeneity in susceptibility and infectivity influences epidemic dynamics. Journal of Theoretical Biology, 350(0):70 – 80, 2014. doi:10.1016/j.jtbi.2014.01.014 W. O. Kermack and A. G. McKendrick. A contribution to the mathematical theory of epidemics. Proceedings of the Royal Society of London. Series A, 115(772):700–721, August 1927. doi:10.1098/rspa.1927.0118 M. G. Roberts. A two-strain epidemic model with uncertainty in the interaction. The ANZIAM Journal, 54:108–115, 10 2012. doi:10.1017/S1446181112000326 M. G. Roberts. Epidemic models with uncertainty in the reproduction number. Journal of Mathematical Biology, 66(7):1463–1474, 2013. doi:10.1007/s00285-012-0540-y F. Santonja and B. Chen-Charpentier. Uncertainty quantification in simulations of epidemics using polynomial chaos. Computational and Mathematical Methods in Medicine, 2012:742086, 2012. doi:10.1155/2012/742086 Communicable Disease Surveillance Centre (Public Health Laboratory Service) and Communicable Diseases (Scotland) Unit. Influenza in a boarding school. BMJ, 1(6112):587, 1978. doi:10.1136/bmj.1.6112.586 G. Strang. Linear Algebra and Its Applications. Thomson, Brooks/Cole, 2006. D. Xiu. Numerical Methods for Stochastic Computations: A Spectral Method Approach. Princeton University Press, 2010

Investing, Inspiring and Including: How Community Foundations Are Helping the Recovery From the Pandemic

The effects of the pandemic have been felt differently depending on where you are in the UK. However, whether you live in an urban, rural or coastal area, one thing that has been present in communities across the country is the impact of local charities and community organisations. Over the past twelve months millions of people have been supported thanks to their efforts.During February and March 2021, we asked our network of community foundations to complete a survey to help us understand the challenges that local Voluntary and Community Sector Organisations (VCSOs) faced and the changing areas of need. Alongside building a clearer picture of the emerging and ongoing issues, we also wanted to get a firm grasp of the steps that funders can take to support local VCSOs. This report encapsulates the findings of the survey, our experience of emergency grant-making during the pandemic, initial conversations with the BAME Infrastructure organisations we have worked alongside, and decades of place-based investment in communities. It aims to make a series of solutionfocused recommendations on how we can best support local VCSOs now, and in the years to come

Thinking globally, acting locally: How community foundations are contributing to the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals

This report looks at how the place-based community foundation model aligns with the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals. Using examples from across the community foundation network, it demonstrates how the work of local organisations, the long-term support of donors, and a focus on place are key to driving sustainable change in communities. It shows how community foundations use their place-based knowledge and relationships to convene different local actors around the Goals.As well as providing examples of how our place-based work fits within a global context, the report also calls for more sustainable funding practices such as multi-year funding and increased flexibility from donors and grant-makers. In addition to this, the report shows how the SDGs can be used by civil society to help communicate its huge impact and to leverage further support from the private sector as it increasingly turns to the SDGs to measure social impact.The report is relevant to funders, philanthropists, corporates, local charities, and other institutions that are invested in seeing sustainable social change in communities across the UK

Suburban house studies

Thesis (M. Arch.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Architecture, 1993.Includes bibliographical references (p. 128-130).This thesis looks at contemporary American detached single-family suburban dwellings. It does so from a historical/typological viewpoint (descriptive) and from a design viewpoint as well (prescriptive). Diagnostic analysis of over 50 spec/tract house plans provided evidence that many of the plans, while functionally efficient, were lacking in territorial definition, flexibility of use, and intimacy of environment. The research of the thesis attempts to locate these shortcomings and, in an investigation of the house through its constituent parts, redesign the detached single-family suburban 'ranch' house.by David Mark Harman.M.Arch

An economic evaluation of the robotic tufting process considering the application of a novel composite wing rib post

This thesis aims to establish a greater understanding of the effects of the single-sided robotic tufting process on component manufacturing costs and weight, and subsequently determine whether potential economic benefits can be realised through its implementation. To complete this assessment, the study uses the novel composite rib post application of the Next Generation Composite Wing (NGCW) project as an example case, investigating the component’s manufacturing cost, performance and weight relative to those of a non-tufted rib post with the same initial fabric layup, and a prepreg rib post with the same fibre orientation and fibre volume fraction. Detailed analyses of the tufted composite rib post manufacturing process have established the relationships between its manufacturing activities and the consumed resources, facilitating the creation of a novel cost model incorporating algorithms defining the robotic tufting process, which may be adapted for different geometries and tuft parameters. In addition, novel permeability data for the considered tufted preform have been obtained experimentally allowing the simulation of the liquid composite manufacturing process. The insertion of tufting in the studied arrangement was shown to decrease the in-plane permeability of the preform, reducing the characteristic by a factor of 3.5 in the direction perpendicular to the tuft seams, and 1.8 in the direction parallel. Completing structural analyses and further cost modelling, the study considers the manufacturing costs and weight of each of the studied components when performance is normalised. Implementing weight penalties including lifetime fuel consumption and lifetime revenue, appreciation is given to the potential lifetime costs generated by each of the structural solutions. Comparing the amalgamated costs of each component, relative economy has been evaluated both when considering equipment amortisation and also the use of pre-amortised equipment. Considering lifetime fuel cost/kg as the weight penalty, the novel composite rib post has greater economy within the pure pull-off load case without tufting due to its lower manufacturing costs. However, with the consideration of a more significant weight penalty, such as potential increased lifetime revenue, the use of the novel composite rib post results in superior economy, its lifetime cost/part is estimated to be 14% less than the component without tufting and 61% less than the lifetime cost/part of the prepreg component. Critical evaluations of the project’s methodologies have highlighted the various assumptions made due to the limitations of available information and means to perform certain validations. Under these circumstances the assumptions are believed to be the best representations of what is experienced in reality. As far as possible, errors believed to be the result of assumptions have been accounted for in rigorous error analyses to establish their propagation through the various calculations performed. These analyses have provided confidence in the results of the study, ensuring the significance of the determined economical differences between the investigated components.QinetiQ Group Plc and Great Western Researc

Mechanisms of the Intriguing Rearrangements of Activated Organic Species

The β-acyloxyalkyl radical rearrangement has been known since 1967 but its mechanism is still not fully understood, despite considerable investigation. Since the migration of a β-trifluoroacetoxy group generally proceeds more rapidly and with more varied regiochemistry than its less electronegative counterparts, this reaction was studied in the hope of understanding more about the subtleties of the mechanism of the β- acyloxyalkyl radical rearrangement. The mechanism of the catalysed rearrangement of Nalkoxy- 2(1H)-pyridinethiones was also explored because preliminary studies indicated that the transition state (TS) for this process was isoelectronic with TSs postulated for the β-acyloxyalkyl radical and other novel rearrangements. ¶ ..