Modelling transmission and control of the COVID-19 pandemic in Australia

There is a continuing debate on relative benefits of various mitigation and suppression strategies aimed to control the spread of COVID-19. Here we report the results of agent-based modelling using a fine-grained computational simulation of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic in Australia. This model is calibrated to match key characteristics of COVID-19 transmission. An important calibration outcome is the age-dependent fraction of symptomatic cases, with this fraction for children found to be one-fifth of such fraction for adults. We apply the model to compare several intervention strategies, including restrictions on international air travel, case isolation, home quarantine, social distancing with varying levels of compliance, and school closures. School closures are not found to bring decisive benefits, unless coupled with high level of social distancing compliance. We report several trade-offs, and an important transition across the levels of social distancing compliance, in the range between 70% and 80% levels, with compliance at the 90% level found to control the disease within 13--14 weeks, when coupled with effective case isolation and international travel restrictions.Comment: 45 pages, 19 figure

Electron multiplication CCD detector technology advancement for the WFIRST-AFTA coronagraph

The WFIRST-AFTA (Wide Field InfraRed Survey Telescope-Astrophysics Focused Telescope Asset) is a NASA space observatory. It will host two major astronomical instruments: a wide-field imager (WFI) to search for dark energy and carry out wide field near infrared (NIR) surveys, and a coronagraph instrument (CGI) to image and spectrally characterize extrasolar planets. In this paper, we discuss the work that has been carried out at JPL in advancing Electron Multiplying CCD (EMCCD) technology to higher flight maturity, with the goal of reaching a NASA technology readiness level of 6 (TRL-6) by early-to-mid 2016. The EMCCD has been baselined for both the coronagraph's imager and integral field spectrograph (IFS) based on its sub-electron noise performance at extremely low flux levels - the regime where the AFTA CGI will operate. We present results from a study that fully characterizes the beginning of life performance of the EMCCD. We also discuss, and present initial results from, a recent radiation test campaign that was designed and carried out to mimic the conditions of the WFIRST-AFTA space environment in an L2 orbit, where we sought to assess the sensor's end of life performance, particularly degradation of its charge transfer efficiency, in addition to other parameters such as dark current, electron multiplication gain, clock induced charge and read noise

The metallicity profile of M31 from spectroscopy of hundreds of HII regions and PNe

The oxygen abundance gradients among nebular emission line regions in spiral galaxies have been used as important constraints for models of chemical evolution. We present the largest ever full-wavelength optical spectroscopic sample of emission line nebulae in a spiral galaxy (M31). We have collected spectra of 253 HII regions and 407 planetary nebulae with the Hectospec multi-fiber spectrograph of the MMT. We measure the line-of-sight extinction for 199 HII regions and 333 PNe; we derive oxygen abundance directly, based on the electron temperature, for 51 PNe; and we use strong line methods to estimate oxygen abundance for 192 HII regions and nitrogen abundance for 52 HII regions. The relatively shallow oxygen abundance gradient of the more extended HII regions in our sample is generally in agreement with the result of Zaritsky et al. (1994), based on only 19 M31 HII regions, but varies with the strong-line diagnostic employed. Our large sample size demonstrates that there is significant intrinsic scatter around this abundance gradient, as much as 3 times the systematic uncertainty in the strong line diagnostics. The intrinsic scatter is similar in the nitrogen abundances, although the gradient is significantly steeper. On small scales (deprojected distance < 0.5 kpc), HII regions exhibit local variations in oxygen abundance that are larger than 0.3 dex in 33% of neighboring pairs. We do not identify a significant oxygen abundance gradient among PNe, but we do find a significant gradient in the [N II] ratio that varies systematically with surface brightness. Our results underscore the complex and inhomogeneous nature of the ISM of M31, and our dataset illustrates systematic effects relevant to future studies of the metallicity gradients in nearby spiral galaxies.Comment: 22 pages, 14 figures, 5 tables. Accepted for publication in ApJ, full tables available at http://www.cfa.harvard.edu/~nsanders/papers/M31/summary.htm

WFIRST coronagraph detector trap modeling results and improvements

The WFIRST coronagraph is being designed to detect and characterize mature exoplanets through the starlight reflected from their surfaces and atmospheres. The light incident on the detector from these distant exoplanets is estimated to be on the order of a few photons per pixel per hour. To measure such small signals, the project has baselined the CCD201 detector made by e2v, a low-noise and high-efficiency electron-multiplying charge-coupled device (EMCCD), and has instituted a rigorous test and modeling program to characterize the device prior to flight. An important consideration is detector performance degradation over the proposed mission lifetime due to radiation exposure in space. To quantify this estimated loss in performance, the project has built a detector trap model that takes into account detailed trap interactions at the sub-pixel level, including stochastic trap capture and release, and the deferment of charge into subsequent pixels during parallel and serial clocking of the pseudo-two-phase CCD201 device. This paper describes recent detector trap model improvements and modeling results

Plasmodium Impairs Antibacterial Innate Immunity to Systemic Infections in Part Through Hemozoin-Bound Bioactive Molecules

One complication of malaria is increased susceptibility to invasive bacterial infections. Plasmodium infections impair host immunity to non-Typhoid Salmonella (NTS) through heme-oxygenase I (HO-I)-induced release of immature granulocytes and myeloid cell-derived IL-10. Yet, it is not known if these mechanisms are specific to NTS. We show here, that Plasmodium yoelii 17XNL (Py) infected mice had impaired clearance of systemic Listeria monocytogenes (Lm) during both acute parasitemia and up to 2 months after clearance of Py infected red blood cells that was independent of HO-I and IL-10. Py-infected mice were also susceptible to Streptococcus pneumoniae (Sp) bacteremia, a common malaria-bacteria co-infection, with higher blood and spleen bacterial burdens and decreased survival compared to naïve mice. Mechanistically, impaired immunity to Sp was independent of HO-I, but was dependent on Py-induced IL-10. Splenic phagocytes from Py infected mice exhibit an impaired ability to restrict growth of intracellular Lm, and neutrophils from Py-infected mice produce less reactive oxygen species (ROS) in response to Lm or Sp. Analysis also identified a defect in a serum component in Py-infected mice that contributes to reduced production of ROS in response to Sp. Finally, treating naïve mice with Plasmodium-derived hemozoin containing naturally bound bioactive molecules, excluding DNA, impaired clearance of Lm. Collectively, we have demonstrated that Plasmodium infection impairs host immunity to diverse bacteria, including S. pneumoniae, through multiple effects on innate immunity, and that a parasite-specific factor (Hz+bound bioactive molecules) directly contributes to Plasmodium-induced suppression of antibacterial innate immunity

Cryogenic irradiation of an EMCCD for the WFIRST coronagraph: preliminary performance analysis

The Wide Field Infra-Red Survey Telescope (WFIRST) is a NASA observatory scheduled to launch in the next decade that will settle essential questions in exoplanet science. The Wide Field Instrument (WFI) offers Hubble quality imaging over a 0.28 square degree field of view and will gather NIR statistical data on exoplanets through gravitational microlensing. An on-board coronagraph will for the first time perform direct imaging and spectroscopic analysis of exoplanets with properties analogous to those within our own solar system, including cold Jupiters, mini Neptunes and potentially super Earths. The Coronagraph Instrument (CGI) will be required to operate with low signal flux for long integration times, demanding all noise sources are kept to a minimum. The Electron Multiplication (EM)-CCD has been baselined for both the imaging and spectrograph cameras due its ability to operate with sub-electron effective read noise values with appropriate multiplication gain setting. The presence of other noise sources, however, such as thermal dark signal and Clock Induced Charge (CIC), need to be characterized and mitigated. In addition, operation within a space environment will subject the device to radiation damage that will degrade the Charge Transfer Effciency (CTE) of the device throughout the mission lifetime. Irradiation at the nominal instrument operating temperature has the potential to provide the best estimate of performance degradation that will be experienced in-flight, since the final population of silicon defects has been shown to be dependent upon the temperature at which the sensor is irradiated. Here we present initial findings from pre- and post- cryogenic irradiation testing of the e2v CCD201-20 BI EMCCD sensor, baselined for the WFIRST coronagraph instrument. The motivation for irradiation at cryogenic temperatures is discussed with reference to previous investigations of a similar nature. The results are presented in context with those from a previous room temperature irradiation investigation that was performed on a CCD201-20 operated under the same conditions. A key conclusion is that the measured performance degradation for a given proton fluence is seen to measurably differ for the cryogenic case compared to the room temperature equivalent for the conditions of this study

The impact of radiation damage on photon counting with an EMCCD for the WFIRST-AFTA coronagraph

WFIRST-AFTA is a 2.4m class NASA observatory designed to address a wide range of science objectives using two complementary scientific payloads. The Wide Field Instrument (WFI) offers Hubble quality imaging over a 0.28 square degree field of view, and will gather NIR statistical data on exoplanets through gravitational microlensing. The second instrument is a high contrast coronagraph that will carry out the direct imaging and spectroscopic analysis of exoplanets, providing a means to probe the structure and composition of planetary systems. The coronagraph instrument is expected to operate in low photon flux for long integration times, meaning all noise sources must be kept to a minimum. In order to satisfy the low noise requirements, the Electron Multiplication (EM)-CCD has been baselined for both the imaging and spectrograph cameras. The EMCCD was selected in comparison with other candidates because of its low effective electronic read noise at sub-electron values with appropriate multiplication gain setting. The presence of other noise sources, however, such as thermal dark signal and Clock Induced Charge (CIC), need to be characterised and mitigated. In addition, operation within a space environment will subject the device to radiation damage that will degrade the Charge Transfer Efficiency (CTE) of the device throughout the mission lifetime. Here we present our latest results from pre- and post-irradiation testing of the e2v CCD201-20 BI EMCCD sensor, baselined for the WFIRST-AFTA coronagraph instrument. A description of the detector technology is presented, alongside considerations for operation within a space environment. The results from a room temperature irradiation are discussed in context with the nominal operating requirements of AFTA-C and future work which entails a cryogenic irradiation of the CCD201-20 is presented