Predictors of Ips confusus Outbreaks During a Record Drought in Southwestern USA: Implications for Monitoring and Management

In many ecosystems the effects of disturbance can be cryptic and disturbance may vary in subtle spatiotemporal ways. For instance, we know that bark beetle outbreaks are more frequent in temperate forests during droughts; however, we have little idea about why they occur in some locations and not others. Understanding biotic and abiotic factors promoting bark beetle outbreaks can be critical to predicting and responding to pest outbreaks. Here we address the environmental factors which are associated with Ips confusus outbreaks during the 2002 widespread drought within the distribution range of pinyon pine woodlands in Arizona. We used univariate statistics to test if whether tree characteristics, other herbivores, stand properties, soil type, wind, and topography were associated with I. confusus outbreak, and logistic regression to create a predictive model for the outbreaks. We found that I. confusus attacks occur in low elevation stands on steeper slopes, where favorable winds for I. confusus dispersion occur. I. confusus select larger trees, in high density stands with understory shrubs that exhibit phenotypic traits characteristic of resistance to stem-boring moths. The model was highly accurate, and explained 95% of the variability in occurrence (98% of the absences and 95% of the presences). Accurate prediction of the impacts of disturbance allow us to anticipate, minimize or mitigate for and eventually counteract its effects, especially those affecting diversity and ecosystem function. Identification of outbreak risk areas can guide regional and national management towards the reduction of infestation risk and enhancing conservation of pinyon-juniper woodlands

Dynamics of the Leaf-Litter Arthropod Fauna Following Fire in a Neotropical Woodland Savanna

Fire is an important agent of disturbance in tropical savannas, but relatively few studies have analyzed how soil-and-litter dwelling arthropods respond to fire disturbance despite the critical role these organisms play in nutrient cycling and other biogeochemical processes. Following the incursion of a fire into a woodland savanna ecological reserve in Central Brazil, we monitored the dynamics of litter-arthropod populations for nearly two years in one burned and one unburned area of the reserve. We also performed a reciprocal transplant experiment to determine the effects of fire and litter type on the dynamics of litter colonization by arthropods. Overall arthropod abundance, the abundance of individual taxa, the richness of taxonomic groups, and the species richness of individual taxa (Formiciade) were lower in the burned site. However, both the ordinal-level composition of the litter arthropod fauna and the species-level composition of the litter ant fauna were not dramatically different in the burned and unburned sites. There is evidence that seasonality of rainfall interacts with fire, as differences in arthropod abundance and diversity were more pronounced in the dry than in the wet season. For many taxa the differences in abundance between burned and unburned sites were maintained even when controlling for litter availability and quality. In contrast, differences in abundance for Collembola, Formicidae, and Thysanoptera were only detected in the unmanipulated samples, which had a lower amount of litter in the burned than in the unburned site throughout most of our study period. Together these results suggest that arthropod density declines in fire-disturbed areas as a result of direct mortality, diminished resources (i.e., reduced litter cover) and less favorable microclimate (i.e., increased litter desiccation due to reduction in tree cover). Although these effects were transitory, there is evidence that the increasingly prevalent fire return interval of only 1–2 years may jeopardize the long-term conservation of litter arthropod communities

Morbidity and mortality after anaesthesia in early life: results of the European prospective multicentre observational study, neonate and children audit of anaesthesia practice in Europe (NECTARINE)

Background: Neonates and infants requiring anaesthesia are at risk of physiological instability and complications, but triggers for peri-anaesthetic interventions and associations with subsequent outcome are unknown. Methods: This prospective, observational study recruited patients up to 60 weeks' postmenstrual age undergoing anaesthesia for surgical or diagnostic procedures from 165 centres in 31 European countries between March 2016 and January 2017. The primary aim was to identify thresholds of pre-determined physiological variables that triggered a medical intervention. The secondary aims were to evaluate morbidities, mortality at 30 and 90 days, or both, and associations with critical events. Results: Infants (n=5609) born at mean (standard deviation [SD]) 36.2 (4.4) weeks postmenstrual age (35.7% preterm) underwent 6542 procedures within 63 (48) days of birth. Critical event(s) requiring intervention occurred in 35.2% of cases, mainly hypotension (>30% decrease in blood pressure) or reduced oxygenation (SpO2 <85%). Postmenstrual age influenced the incidence and thresholds for intervention. Risk of critical events was increased by prior neonatal medical conditions, congenital anomalies, or both (relative risk [RR]=1.16; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.04–1.28) and in those requiring preoperative intensive support (RR=1.27; 95% CI, 1.15–1.41). Additional complications occurred in 16.3% of patients by 30 days, and overall 90-day mortality was 3.2% (95% CI, 2.7–3.7%). Co-occurrence of intraoperative hypotension, hypoxaemia, and anaemia was associated with increased risk of morbidity (RR=3.56; 95% CI, 1.64–7.71) and mortality (RR=19.80; 95% CI, 5.87–66.7). Conclusions: Variability in physiological thresholds that triggered an intervention, and the impact of poor tissue oxygenation on patient's outcome, highlight the need for more standardised perioperative management guidelines for neonates and infants. Clinical trial registration: NCT02350348

Difficult tracheal intubation in neonates and infants. NEonate and Children audiT of Anaesthesia pRactice IN Europe (NECTARINE): a prospective European multicentre observational study

Background: Neonates and infants are susceptible to hypoxaemia in the perioperative period. The aim of this study was to analyse interventions related to anaesthesia tracheal intubations in this European cohort and identify their clinical consequences. Methods: We performed a secondary analysis of tracheal intubations of the European multicentre observational trial (NEonate and Children audiT of Anaesthesia pRactice IN Europe [NECTARINE]) in neonates and small infants with difficult tracheal intubation. The primary endpoint was the incidence of difficult intubation and the related complications. The secondary endpoints were the risk factors for severe hypoxaemia attributed to difficult airway management, and 30 and 90 day outcomes. Results: Tracheal intubation was planned in 4683 procedures. Difficult tracheal intubation, defined as two failed attempts of direct laryngoscopy, occurred in 266 children (271 procedures) with an incidence (95% confidence interval [CI]) of 5.8% (95% CI, 5.1e6.5). Bradycardia occurred in 8% of the cases with difficult intubation, whereas a significant decrease in oxygen saturation (SpO2<90% for 60 s) was reported in 40%. No associated risk factors could be identified among comorbidities, surgical, or anaesthesia management. Using propensity scoring to adjust for confounders, difficult anaesthesia tracheal intubation did not lead to an increase in 30 and 90 day morbidity or mortality. Conclusions: The results of the present study demonstrate a high incidence of difficult tracheal intubation in children less than 60 weeks post-conceptual age commonly resulting in severe hypoxaemia. Reassuringly, the morbidity and mortality at 30 and 90 days was not increased by the occurrence of a difficult intubation event. Clinical trial registration: NCT02350348

Morbidity and mortality after anaesthesia in early life: results of the European prospective multicentre observational study, neonate and children audit of anaesthesia practice in Europe (NECTARINE)

BACKGROUND: Neonates and infants requiring anaesthesia are at risk of physiological instability and complications, but triggers for peri-anaesthetic interventions and associations with subsequent outcome are unknown. METHODS: This prospective, observational study recruited patients up to 60 weeks' postmenstrual age undergoing anaesthesia for surgical or diagnostic procedures from 165 centres in 31 European countries between March 2016 and January 2017. The primary aim was to identify thresholds of pre-determined physiological variables that triggered a medical intervention. The secondary aims were to evaluate morbidities, mortality at 30 and 90 days, or both, and associations with critical events. RESULTS: Infants (n=5609) born at mean (standard deviation [sd]) 36.2 (4.4) weeks postmenstrual age (35.7% preterm) underwent 6542 procedures within 63 (48) days of birth. Critical event(s) requiring intervention occurred in 35.2% of cases, mainly hypotension (>30% decrease in blood pressure) or reduced oxygenation (SpO2 <85%). Postmenstrual age influenced the incidence and thresholds for intervention. Risk of critical events was increased by prior neonatal medical conditions, congenital anomalies, or both (relative risk [RR]=1.16; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.04–1.28) and in those requiring preoperative intensive support (RR=1.27; 95% CI, 1.15–1.41). Additional complications occurred in 16.3% of patients by 30 days, and overall 90-day mortality was 3.2% (95% CI, 2.7–3.7%). Co-occurrence of intraoperative hypotension, hypoxaemia, and anaemia was associated with increased risk of morbidity (RR=3.56; 95% CI, 1.64–7.71) and mortality (RR=19.80; 95% CI, 5.87–66.7). CONCLUSIONS: Variability in physiological thresholds that triggered an intervention, and the impact of poor tissue oxygenation on patient's outcome, highlight the need for more standardised perioperative management guidelines for neonates and infants

Difficult tracheal intubation in neonates and infants. NEonate and Children audiT of Anaesthesia pRactice IN Europe (NECTARINE): a prospective European multicentre observational study

BACKGROUND: Neonates and infants are susceptible to hypoxaemia in the perioperative period. The aim of this study was to analyse interventions related to anaesthesia tracheal intubations in this European cohort and identify their clinical consequences. METHODS: We performed a secondary analysis of tracheal intubations of the European multicentre observational trial (NEonate and Children audiT of Anaesthesia pRactice IN Europe [NECTARINE]) in neonates and small infants with difficult tracheal intubation. The primary endpoint was the incidence of difficult intubation and the related complications. The secondary endpoints were the risk factors for severe hypoxaemia attributed to difficult airway management, and 30 and 90 day outcomes. RESULTS: Tracheal intubation was planned in 4683 procedures. Difficult tracheal intubation, defined as two failed attempts of direct laryngoscopy, occurred in 266 children (271 procedures) with an incidence (95% confidence interval [CI]) of 5.8% (95% CI, 5.1–6.5). Bradycardia occurred in 8% of the cases with difficult intubation, whereas a significant decrease in oxygen saturation (SpO2<90% for 60 s) was reported in 40%. No associated risk factors could be identified among co-morbidities, surgical, or anaesthesia management. Using propensity scoring to adjust for confounders, difficult anaesthesia tracheal intubation did not lead to an increase in 30 and 90 day morbidity or mortality. CONCLUSIONS: The results of the present study demonstrate a high incidence of difficult tracheal intubation in children less than 60 weeks post-conceptual age commonly resulting in severe hypoxaemia. Reassuringly, the morbidity and mortality at 30 and 90 days was not increased by the occurrence of a difficult intubation event

Peri-operative red blood cell transfusion in neonates and infants: NEonate and Children audiT of Anaesthesia pRactice IN Europe: A prospective European multicentre observational study

BACKGROUND: Little is known about current clinical practice concerning peri-operative red blood cell transfusion in neonates and small infants. Guidelines suggest transfusions based on haemoglobin thresholds ranging from 8.5 to 12 g dl-1, distinguishing between children from birth to day 7 (week 1), from day 8 to day 14 (week 2) or from day 15 (≥week 3) onwards. OBJECTIVE: To observe peri-operative red blood cell transfusion practice according to guidelines in relation to patient outcome. DESIGN: A multicentre observational study. SETTING: The NEonate-Children sTudy of Anaesthesia pRactice IN Europe (NECTARINE) trial recruited patients up to 60 weeks' postmenstrual age undergoing anaesthesia for surgical or diagnostic procedures from 165 centres in 31 European countries between March 2016 and January 2017. PATIENTS: The data included 5609 patients undergoing 6542 procedures. Inclusion criteria was a peri-operative red blood cell transfusion. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The primary endpoint was the haemoglobin level triggering a transfusion for neonates in week 1, week 2 and week 3. Secondary endpoints were transfusion volumes, 'delta haemoglobin' (preprocedure - transfusion-triggering) and 30-day and 90-day morbidity and mortality. RESULTS: Peri-operative red blood cell transfusions were recorded during 447 procedures (6.9%). The median haemoglobin levels triggering a transfusion were 9.6 [IQR 8.7 to 10.9] g dl-1 for neonates in week 1, 9.6 [7.7 to 10.4] g dl-1 in week 2 and 8.0 [7.3 to 9.0] g dl-1 in week 3. The median transfusion volume was 17.1 [11.1 to 26.4] ml kg-1 with a median delta haemoglobin of 1.8 [0.0 to 3.6] g dl-1. Thirty-day morbidity was 47.8% with an overall mortality of 11.3%. CONCLUSIONS: Results indicate lower transfusion-triggering haemoglobin thresholds in clinical practice than suggested by current guidelines. The high morbidity and mortality of this NECTARINE sub-cohort calls for investigative action and evidence-based guidelines addressing peri-operative red blood cell transfusions strategies. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov, identifier: NCT02350348