The Confounding Effect of Population Structure on Bayesian Skyline Plot Inferences of Demographic History

Many coalescent-based methods aiming to infer the demographic history of populations assume a single, isolated and panmictic population (i.e. a Wright-Fisher model). While this assumption may be reasonable under many conditions, several recent studies have shown that the results can be misleading when it is violated. Among the most widely applied demographic inference methods are Bayesian skyline plots (BSPs), which are used across a range of biological fields. Violations of the panmixia assumption are to be expected in many biological systems, but the consequences for skyline plot inferences have so far not been addressed and quantified. We simulated DNA sequence data under a variety of scenarios involving structured populations with variable levels of gene flow and analysed them using BSPs as implemented in the software package BEAST. Results revealed that BSPs can show false signals of population decline under biologically plausible combinations of population structure and sampling strategy, suggesting that the interpretation of several previous studies may need to be re-evaluated. We found that a balanced sampling strategy whereby samples are distributed on several populations provides the best scheme for inferring demographic change over a typical time scale. Analyses of data from a structured African buffalo population demonstrate how BSP results can be strengthened by simulations. We recommend that sample selection should be carefully considered in relation to population structure previous to BSP analyses, and that alternative scenarios should be evaluated when interpreting signals of population size change.Danish Council for Independent Research, Laboratoire d’Excellence (LABEX) grant: (ANR-10-LABX-41)

Phylogenetic analyses of the polyprotein coding sequences of serotype O foot-and-mouth disease viruses in East Africa: evidence for interserotypic recombination

BACKGROUND: Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is endemic in East Africa with the majority of the reported outbreaks attributed to serotype O virus. In this study, phylogenetic analyses of the polyprotein coding region of serotype O FMD viruses from Kenya and Uganda has been undertaken to infer evolutionary relationships and processes responsible for the generation and maintenance of diversity within this serotype. FMD virus RNA was obtained from six samples following virus isolation in cell culture and in one case by direct extraction from an oropharyngeal sample. Following RT-PCR, the single long open reading frame, encoding the polyprotein, was sequenced. RESULTS: Phylogenetic comparisons of the VP1 coding region showed that the recent East African viruses belong to one lineage within the EA-2 topotype while an older Kenyan strain, K/52/1992 is a representative of the topotype EA-1. Evolutionary relationships between the coding regions for the leader protease (L), the capsid region and almost the entire coding region are monophyletic except for the K/52/1992 which is distinct. Furthermore, phylogenetic relationships for the P2 and P3 regions suggest that the K/52/1992 is a probable recombinant between serotypes A and O. A bootscan analysis of K/52/1992 with East African FMD serotype A viruses (A21/KEN/1964 and A23/KEN/1965) and serotype O viral isolate (K/117/1999) revealed that the P2 region is probably derived from a serotype A strain while the P3 region appears to be a mosaic derived from both serotypes A and O. CONCLUSIONS: Sequences of the VP1 coding region from recent serotype O FMDVs from Kenya and Uganda are all representatives of a specific East African lineage (topotype EA-2), a probable indication that hardly any FMD introductions of this serotype have occurred from outside the region in the recent past. Furthermore, evidence for interserotypic recombination, within the non-structural protein coding regions, between FMDVs of serotypes A and O has been obtained. In addition to characterization using the VP1 coding region, analyses involving the non-structural protein coding regions should be performed in order to identify evolutionary processes shaping FMD viral populations

Evolutionary analysis of foot-and-mouth disease virus serotype SAT 1 isolates from east africa suggests two independent introductions from southern africa

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>In East Africa, foot-and-mouth disease virus serotype SAT 1 is responsible for occasional severe outbreaks in livestock and is known to be maintained within the buffalo populations. Little is known about the evolutionary forces underlying its epidemiology in the region. To enhance our appreciation of the epidemiological status of serotype SAT 1 virus in the region, we inferred its evolutionary and phylogeographic history by means of genealogy-based coalescent methods using 53 VP1 coding sequences covering a sampling period from 1948-2007.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The VP1 coding sequence of 11 serotype SAT 1 FMD viruses from East Africa has been determined and compared with known sequences derived from other SAT 1 viruses from sub-Saharan Africa. Purifying (negative) selection and low substitution rates characterized the SAT 1 virus isolates in East Africa. Two virus groups with probable independent introductions from southern Africa were identified from a maximum clade credibility tree. One group was exclusive to Uganda while the other was present within Kenya and Tanzania.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Our results provide a baseline characterization of the inter-regional spread of SAT 1 in sub-Saharan Africa and highlight the importance of a regional approach to trans-boundary animal disease control in order to monitor circulating strains and apply appropriate vaccines.</p

Characterisation of recent foot-and-mouth disease viruses from African buffalo ( <i>Syncerus caffer</i> ) and cattle in Kenya is consistent with independent virus populations

BACKGROUND: Understanding the epidemiology of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD), including roles played by different hosts, is essential for improving disease control. The African buffalo (Syncerus caffer) is a reservoir for the SAT serotypes of FMD virus (FMDV). Large buffalo populations commonly intermingle with livestock in Kenya, yet earlier studies have focused on FMD in the domestic livestock, hence the contribution of buffalo to disease in livestock is largely unknown. This study analysed 47 epithelia collected from FMD outbreaks in Kenyan cattle between 2008 and 2012, and 102 probang and serum samples collected from buffalo in three different Kenyan ecosystems; Maasai-Mara (MME) (n = 40), Tsavo (TSE) (n = 33), and Meru (ME) (n = 29). RESULTS: Antibodies against FMDV non-structural proteins were found in 65 of 102 (64%) sera from buffalo with 44/102 and 53/102 also having neutralising antibodies directed against FMDV SAT 1 and SAT 2, respectively. FMDV RNA was detected in 42% of the buffalo probang samples by RT-qPCR (Cycle Threshold (Ct) ≤32). Two buffalo probang samples were positive by VI and were identified as FMDV SAT 1 and SAT 2 by Ag-ELISA, while the latter assay detected serotypes O (1), A (20), SAT 1 (7) and SAT 2 (19) in the 47 cattle epithelia. VP1 coding sequences were generated for two buffalo and 21 cattle samples. Phylogenetic analyses revealed SAT 1 and SAT 2 virus lineages within buffalo that were distinct from those detected in cattle. CONCLUSIONS: We found that FMDV serotypes O, A, SAT 1 and SAT 2 were circulating among cattle in Kenya and cause disease, but only SAT 1 and SAT 2 viruses were successfully isolated from clinically normal buffalo. The buffalo isolates were genetically distinct from isolates obtained from cattle. Control efforts should focus primarily on reducing FMDV circulation among livestock and limiting interaction with buffalo. Comprehensive studies incorporating additional buffalo viruses are recommended. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12917-015-0333-9) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users

Genetic diversity of serotype A foot-and-mouth disease viruses in Kenya from 1964 to 2013; implications for control strategies in eastern Africa

Serotype A is the most genetically and antigenically diverse of the foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) serotypes. Records of its occurrence in Kenya date back to 1952 and the antigenic diversity of the outbreak viruses in this region is reflected by the current use of two different vaccine strains (K5/1980 and K35/1980) and previous use of two other strains (K18/66 and K179/71). This study aimed at enhancing the understanding of the patterns of genetic variation of serotype A FMDV in Kenya. The complete VP1 coding region sequences of 38 field isolates, identified as serotype A FMDV, collected between 1964 and 2013 were determined. Coalescent-based methods were used to infer times of divergence of the virus strains and the evolutionary rates alongside 27 other serotype A FMDV sequences from Genbank and the World Reference Laboratory (WRL). This study represents the first comprehensive genetic analysis of serotype A FMDVs from Kenya. The study detected four previously defined genotypes/clusters (termed G-I, G-III, G-VII and G-VIII), within the Africa topotype, together with a fifth lineage that has apparently emerged from within G-I; these different lineages have each had a countrywide distribution. Genotypes G-III and G-VIII that were first isolated in 1964 are now apparently extinct; G-VII was last recorded in 2005, while G-I (including the new lineage) is currently in widespread circulation. High genetic diversity, widespread distribution and transboundary spread of serotype A FMDVs across the region of eastern Africa was apparent. Continuous surveillance for the virus, coupled to genetic and antigenic characterization is recommended for improved regional control strategies.Danish International Development Agency (DANIDA); Livestock-Wildlife Diseases in East Africa Project (LWDEA); Trans-boundary Animal Diseases in East Africa (TADEA) project: (DFC no. 10-006KU)

Genetics as a novel tool in mining impact assessment and biomonitoring of critically endangered western chimpanzees in the Nimba Mountains, Guinea

Western chimpanzees (Pan troglodytes verus) are Critically Endangered and Guinea is a key stronghold for this subspecies. However, Guinea is also rich in minerals with some of the highest‐grade iron‐ore deposits in the world. Specifically, the Nimba Mountains, home to western chimpanzees, is one of the sites under consideration for mining activities. To assess the impact of mining activities in the area, we used non‐invasive genetic sampling to estimate chimpanzee population size, sex ratio, community composition, and range boundaries on the western flank of the massif. The level of genetic diversity and affinity between communities was estimated and recommendations for future genetic censusing provided. Between 2003 and 2018, we collected 999 fecal samples of which 663 were analyzed using a panel of 26 microsatellites. We identified a minimum of 136 chimpanzees in four communities, with evidence of migratory events, a high level of shared ancestry and genetic diversity. We assessed sampling intensities and capture rates for each community. Saturation was reached in two communities with sampling between 3.2 and 4.3 times the estimated number of chimpanzees. Our findings highlight the utility of genetic censusing for temporal monitoring of ape abundance, as well as capturing migratory events and gauging genetic diversity and population viability over time. We recommend genetic sampling, combined with camera trapping, for use in future Environmental and Social Impact Assessments, as these methods can yield robust baselines for implementing the mitigation hierarchy, future biomonitoring and conservation management

Unrecognized circulation of SAT 1 foot-and-mouth disease virus in cattle herds around Queen Elizabeth National Park in Uganda

BACKGROUND: Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is endemic in Uganda in spite of the control measures used. Various aspects of the maintenance and circulation of FMD viruses (FMDV) in Uganda are not well understood; these include the role of the African buffalo (Syncerus caffer) as a reservoir for FMDV. To better understand the epidemiology of FMD at the livestock-wildlife-interface, samples were collected from young, unvaccinated cattle from 24 pastoral herds that closely interact with wildlife around Queen Elizabeth National Park in Uganda, and analysed for evidence of FMDV infection. RESULTS: In total, 37 (15 %) of 247 serum samples had detectable antibodies against FMDV non-structural proteins (NSPs) using a pan-serotypic assay. Within these 37 sera, antibody titres ≥ 80 against the structural proteins of serotypes O, SAT 1, SAT 2 and SAT 3 were detected by ELISA in 5, 7, 4 and 3 samples, respectively, while neutralizing antibodies were only detected against serotype O in 3 samples. Two FMDV isolates, with identical VP1 coding sequences, were obtained from probang samples from clinically healthy calves from the same herd and are serotype SAT 1 (topotype IV (EA-I)). Based on the VP1 coding sequences, these viruses are distinct from previous cattle and buffalo SAT 1 FMDV isolates obtained from the same area (19–30 % nucleotide difference) and from the vaccine strain (TAN/155/71) used within Uganda (26 % nucleotide difference). Eight herds had only one or a few animals with antibodies against FMDV NSPs while six herds had more substantial evidence of prior infection with FMDV. There was no evidence for exposure to FMDV in the other ten herds. CONCLUSIONS: The two identical SAT 1 FMDV VP1 sequences are distinct from former buffalo and cattle isolates from the same area, thus, transmission between buffalo and cattle was not demonstrated. These new SAT 1 FMDV isolates differed significantly from the vaccine strain used to control Ugandan FMD outbreaks, indicating a need for vaccine matching studies. Only six herds had clear serological evidence for exposure to O and SAT 1 FMDV. Scattered presence of antibodies against FMDV in other herds may be due to the occasional introduction of animals to the area or maternal antibodies from past infection and/or vaccination. The evidence for asymptomatic FMDV infection has implications for disease control strategies in the area since this obstructs early disease detection that is based on clinical signs in FMDV infected animals. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12917-015-0616-1) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users

Time clustered sampling can inflate the inferred substitution rate in foot-and-mouth disease virus analyses

With the emergence of analytical software for the inference of viral evolution, a number of studies have focused on estimating important parameters such as the substitution rate and the time to the most recent common ancestor (tMRCA) for rapidly evolving viruses. Coupled with an increasing abundance of sequence data sampled under widely different schemes, an effort to keep results consistent and comparable is needed. This study emphasizes commonly disregarded problems in the inference of evolutionary rates in viral sequence data when sampling is unevenly distributed on a temporal scale through a study of the foot-and-mouth (FMD) disease virus serotypes SAT 1 and SAT 2. Our study shows that clustered temporal sampling in phylogenetic analyses of FMD viruses will strongly bias the inferences of substitution rates and tMRCA because the inferred rates in such data sets reflect a rate closer to the mutation rate rather than the substitution rate. Estimating evolutionary parameters from viral sequences should be performed with due consideration of the differences in short-term and longer-term evolutionary processes occurring within sets of temporally sampled viruses, and studies should carefully consider how samples are combined