Government Formation and Strategic Voting in Multi-Party Systems:Voting for Coalitions in the Netherlands

Voters may have different strategic reasons to vote for a party that is not their favourite. The best known form of strategic voting takes place in majoritarian electoral systems, where citizens may decide to not waste their vote by supporting a candidate that has no chance of winning the seat. This incentive to vote strategically is absent in proportional systems with large district magnitude. We argue that in multi-party systems another form of strategic voting takes place, as considerations about future coalitions may also stimulate citizens to vote strategically. We analyse this for Netherlands on the basis of the Dutch Parliamentary Election Study 2006, which contained a novel series of survey items aimed at identifying such considerations. The results suggest that Dutch voters did indeed vote strategically on the basis of their preferences for the future coalition. Voters’ estimates of the probability that particular coalitions would form, on the other hand, had virtually no impact

Protest Behavior in European Societies:The Role of Individual Incentives and the Political Context

Empirical research has provided different explanations for political protest. Yet, from a cost-benefit perspective the motivation for protest behavior still remains unclear. Why do people engage in protest activities, even though participation is costly and collective outcomes are available to everybody? This paper aims to provide an explanation for this paradox by analyzing which individual-level incentives foster protest participation, and by considering the specific political context in which protest activities take place. We rely mainly upon the European Social Survey (ESS) data from 2002–2003, which covers a large number of countries, and includes important items for measuring political protest. The findings suggest that both individual-level incentives and contextual features are crucial to take into account when explaining protest activity. More specifically, we find that collective and selective incentives motivate protest in most European countries, and that protest levels are higher in systems with proportional representation, in less fractionalized systems and in more polarized systems. Looking at interactions between contextual and individual-level factors, we find that people are less likely to be driven to protest by collective incentives in countries where left parties are in the cabinet

Cabinets, Prime Ministers and Corruption. A Comparative Analysis of Parliamentary Governments in Post-War Europe

Why are some states more corrupt than others? Previous research explaining corruption suggests that multiparty governments are associated with higher levels of corruption since it is difficult for voters to hold parties in such cabinets accountable. Drawing on the literature on coalition governance, we suggest that a lack of government corruption has more to do with the ability of other key political actors to control the agents that have been delegated power in cabinet. We use a new dataset (Varieties of Democracy), giving us more specific measures on governmental corruption across a longer time-period. We show that corruption is significantly lower when the Prime Minister (PM) has strong constitutional powers, suggesting that the PM as a principal reduces agency problems

Intergroup Threat and Affective Polarization in a Multi-Party System

What explains conflict between various societal groups and polarization among voters? Much of the existing literature focusing on mass political polarization in modern democracies originates in the US, where studies have shown that while ideological separation has grown, political conflict increasingly reflects social identity divisions rather than policy disagreements, resulting in affective polarization. We focus on explaining such polarization in a multi-party context. Drawing on social identity theory and intergroup threat theory, we hypothesize that individuals who perceive an intergroup threat show stronger intergroup differentiation and increased affective polarization. We analyze the influence of perceived threat on affective polarization drawing on two large-scale representative surveys in Sweden (N = 1429 and 1343). We show that individual-level affective polarization is related to perceived intergroup threats among the voters in both studies, measuring affective polarization using social distance, negative trait attribution, and party like-dislike ratings

Antizyme inhibitor 2 (AZIN2) associates with better prognosis of head and neck minor salivary gland adenoid cystic carcinoma

cited By 0The key regulator of the polyamine biosynthetic pathway is ornithine decarboxylase (ODC). ODC is activated by antizyme inhibitor 1 (AZIN1) and 2 (AZIN2). AZIN1 and recently AZIN2 have been related to cancer; however, their functions in adenoid cystic carcinoma (ACC) have not been studied. We performed immunohistochemical study on minor salivary and mucous gland ACC tissue samples of patients treated at the Helsinki University Hospital (Helsinki, Finland) during 1974-2012. We scored AZIN1 and 2 immunoexpression in 42 and 45 tumor tissue samples, respectively, and correlated them with clinicopathological factors and survival. Enhanced AZIN2 expression was associated with better survival. In addition, both AZINs were seen more commonly in cribriform and tubular than in solid growth patterns. AZIN1 expression did not correlate with the studied clinicopathological factors. It seems that AZIN2 expression is higher in cancer tissue with secretory functions. In ACC tissue, high AZIN2 expression could be related to well-differentiated histological type which still has a functioning vesicle transportation system. Thus, AZIN2 could be a prognostic factor for better survival of ACC patients.Peer reviewe

Threats, Emotions, and Affective Polarization

Why do some individuals feel hostility and express bias against supporters of other political parties? Drawing on intergroup threat theory, we examine the role of emotions as a mechanism by which perceived threats against the ingroup are a source of increased affective polarization. In two survey experiments performed in the multiparty contexts of Sweden (N=505) and Germany (N=776), we manipulated intergroup threat using simulated online media, presenting participants with content related to immigration, and measured affective polarization using ratings of ingroup and outgroup supporter traits, and feeling thermometers. Compared to a control condition, the threatening content evoked fear, anxiety, and anger among participants. However, only when individuals reacted to the threatening content with anger was increased affective polarization observed, in line with research showing that anger is a high-arousal emotion related to an increased reliance on stereotypes. We conclude that individuals distance themselves from supporters of opposing political parties when they perceive a threat to their ingroup and subsequently react with anger. Overall, we contribute to the literature on affective polarization by stressing the role of emotional reactions to intergroup threat

Accuracy of preoperative MRI to assess lateral neck metastases in papillary thyroid carcinoma

Primary treatment of papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC) with lateral lymph node metastasis is surgery, but the extent of lateral neck dissection remains undefined. Preoperative imaging is used to guide the extent of surgery, although its sensitivity and specificity for defining the number and level of affected lymph nodes on the lateral neck is relatively modest. Our aim was to assess the role of preoperative magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) in predicting the requisite levels of neck dissection in patients with regionally metastatic PTC, with a focus on Levels II and V. All patients with PTC and lateral neck metastasis who had undergone neck dissection at the Department of Otorhinolaryngology-Head and Neck Surgery, Helsinki University Hospital, Helsinki, Finland from 2013 to 2016 and had a preoperative MRI available were retrospectively reviewed. A head and neck radiologist re-evaluated all MRIs, and the imaging findings were compared with histopathology after neck dissection. In the cohort of 39 patients, preoperative MRI showed concordance with histopathology for Levels II and V as follows: sensitivity of 94 and 67%, specificity of 20 and 91%, positive predictive value of 56 and 75%, and negative predictive value of 75 and 87%, respectively. In PTC, MRI demonstrated fairly high specificity and negative predictive value for Level V metastasis, and future studies are needed to verify our results to omit prophylactic dissection of this level. Routine dissection of Level II in patients with regionally metastatic PTC needs to be considered, as MRI showed low specificity.Peer reviewe

Elite communication and affective polarization among voters

How does elite communication influence affective polarization between partisan groups? Drawing on the literature on partisan source cues, we expect that communication from in- or outgroup party representatives will increase affective polarization. We argue that polarized social identities are reinforced by partisan source cues, which bias perceptions of elite communication and result in increased intergroup differentiation. Further, we expect that the effect of such source cues is greater for voters with stronger partisan affinities. To evaluate our hypotheses, we performed a survey experiment among about 1300 voters in Sweden. Our analyses show that individuals who received a factual political message with a source cue from an in- or outgroup representative exhibited higher affective polarization, especially when they already held strong partisan affinities. This suggests that political elites can increase affective polarization by reinforcing existing group identities, and that this occurs in conjunction with biased interpretation of elite communication. The results improve our understanding of how political elites can influence affective polarization and add to previous research on party cues and attitude formation by demonstrating that such source cues can also increase intergroup differentiation