The Positive Feedback Cycle in the Electricity Market: Residential Solar PV Adoption, Electricity Demand and Prices.

Residential solar PV Positive feedback cycle Panel data analysis 1. Introduction Micro renewable energy systems are small scale energy systems which generate small amounts of energy when compared to traditional centralized power plants. Micro renewable energy systems have now made it possible for home owners to retrofit their premises to generate their own electricity and/or heat, thus becoming more self-sufficient. Allen et al. (2008) references a study where it was predicted that electrical micro renewable energy systems could provide 30–40% of the United Kingdoms’ electricity needs by 2050. Governments worldwide have included strategies to stimulate the growth of micro renewable energy systems at the residential level as part of their overall energy policy aimed at combatting climate change. Governments have used a variety of support mechanisms to achieve their targets which include Feed-in Tariffs (Fit), point of sales rebates including Renewable Energy Certificates (REC), and tax benefits. These policies have been successful in increasing the number installations particularly that of solar photovoltaic systems in the residential sector in countries like the United States of America, Australia and the United Kingdom (Allen et al., 2008; Chapman et al., 2016). Though, the increasing popularity of residential solar photovoltaic systems in electricity markets has led some to suggest that it has created a positive feedback cycle or loop. Simply put a positive feedback cycle is a situation where, action A generates more of action B which in turn ⁎ Corresponding author. E-mail address: [email protected] (J. Hanly). ABSTRACT Micro renewable energy systems (MRES) such as Photovoltaic (PV) are an increasingly important element of National energy strategies. However, the success of these installations has given rise to a positive feedback cycle whereby increased customer adoption results in reduced demand from Utility providers. This leads to price increases and further incentives customers to adopt MRES. This paper investigates the existence of a positive feedback cycle by developing a theoretical model based on simultaneous equations and estimating it using the three stage least squares approach using data from the UK, Australian and Irish Markets. Results indicate strong support for the idea of a positive feedback cycle. This reinforces the need for stakeholders to consider this issue in framing future energy policies to ensure that the adoption of solar PV is supported in a sustainable way, while not punishing non-adopters with higher electricity rates

Policy challenges for the pediatric rheumatology workforce: Part III. the international situation

Survival dominates current pediatric global health priorities. Diseases of poverty largely contribute to overall mortality in children under 5 years of age. Infectious diseases and injuries account for 75% of cause-specific mortality among children ages 5-14 years. Twenty percent of the world's population lives in extreme poverty (income below US $1.25/day). Within this population, essential services and basic needs are not met, including clean water, sanitation, adequate nutrition, shelter, access to health care, medicines and education. In this context, musculoskeletal disease comprises 0.1% of all-cause mortality in children ages 5-14 years. Worldwide morbidity from musculoskeletal disease remains generally unknown in the pediatric age group. This epidemiologic data is not routinely surveyed by international agencies, including the World Health Organization. The prevalence of pediatric rheumatic diseases based on data from developed nations is in the range of 2,500 - 3,000 cases per million children. Developing countries' needs for musculoskeletal morbidity are undergoing an epidemiologic shift to chronic conditions, as leading causes of pediatric mortality are slowly quelled

Anti-DFS70/LEDGF Antibodies Are More Prevalent in Healthy Individuals Compared to Patients with Systemic Autoimmune Rheumatic Diseases

Objective.Antinuclear antibodies (ANA) are a serological hallmark of systemic autoimmune rheumatic diseases (SARD) such as systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE). While a number of ANA patterns detected by indirect immunofluorescence (IIF) have diagnostic significance, autoantibodies producing the dense fine speckled (DFS) pattern have been reported to be more prevalent in healthy individuals than in SARD.Methods.Sequential samples submitted for ANA testing were screened for anti-DFS antibodies by IIF (n = 3263). Samples with the DFS pattern were tested for anti-DFS70/lens epithelium–derived growth factor (LEDGF) antibodies by ELISA and by a novel chemiluminescence assay (CIA, Quanta Flash DFS70). Sera from patients with various diseases and healthy individuals were tested for anti-DFS70/LEDGF antibodies by CIA. A cohort of 251 patients with SLE was used to analyze serological and clinical associations of anti-DFS70 antibodies.Results.The frequency of anti-DFS antibodies by IIF was 1.62%. The prevalence of anti-DFS70/LEDGF antibodies as detected by CIA in the different cohorts was 8.9% in healthy individuals, 2.8% in SLE, 2.6% in rheumatoid arthritis, 4.0% in asthma, 5.0% in interstitial cystitis, 1.7% in Graves' disease, and 6.0% in Hashimoto's thyroiditis. Of note, the prevalence of anti-DFS70/LEDGF antibodies was significantly higher in healthy individuals compared to patients with SARD (p = 0.00085). In SLE results, anti-DFS70/LEDGF antibodies were not significantly associated with clinical features or other autoantibodies typically found in SLE. Only 1/7 SLE sera showed anti-DFS70/LEDGF, but no other autoantibody reactivity.Conclusion."Monospecific" anti-DFS70/LEDGF antibodies may represent a biomarker for differentiating SARD from non-SARD individuals, but there is a need for a reliable assay to ensure reactivity to DFS70

Spatiotemporal modeling of microbial metabolism

Background Microbial systems in which the extracellular environment varies both spatially and temporally are very common in nature and in engineering applications. While the use of genome-scale metabolic reconstructions for steady-state flux balance analysis (FBA) and extensions for dynamic FBA are common, the development of spatiotemporal metabolic models has received little attention. Results We present a general methodology for spatiotemporal metabolic modeling based on combining genome-scale reconstructions with fundamental transport equations that govern the relevant convective and/or diffusional processes in time and spatially varying environments. Our solution procedure involves spatial discretization of the partial differential equation model followed by numerical integration of the resulting system of ordinary differential equations with embedded linear programs using DFBAlab, a MATLAB code that performs reliable and efficient dynamic FBA simulations. We demonstrate our methodology by solving spatiotemporal metabolic models for two systems of considerable practical interest: (1) a bubble column reactor with the syngas fermenting bacterium Clostridium ljungdahlii; and (2) a chronic wound biofilm with the human pathogen Pseudomonas aeruginosa. Despite the complexity of the discretized models which consist of 900 ODEs/600 LPs and 250 ODEs/250 LPs, respectively, we show that the proposed computational framework allows efficient and robust model solution. Conclusions Our study establishes a new paradigm for formulating and solving genome-scale metabolic models with both time and spatial variations and has wide applicability to natural and engineered microbial systems

Cortex cis -regulatory switches establish scale colour identity and pattern diversity in Heliconius

In Heliconius butterflies, wing colour pattern diversity and scale types are controlled by a few genes of large effect that regulate colour pattern switches between morphs and species across a large mimetic radiation. One of these genes, cortex, has been repeatedly associated with colour pattern evolution in butterflies. Here we carried out CRISPR knockouts in multiple Heliconius species and show that cortex is a major determinant of scale cell identity. Chromatin accessibility profiling and introgression scans identified cis-regulatory regions associated with discrete phenotypic switches. CRISPR perturbation of these regions in black hindwing genotypes recreated a yellow bar, revealing their spatially limited activity. In the H. melpomene/timareta lineage, the candidate CRE from yellow-barred phenotype morphs is interrupted by a transposable element, suggesting that cis-regulatory structural variation underlies these mimetic adaptations. Our work shows that cortex functionally controls scale colour fate and that its cis-regulatory regions control a phenotypic switch in a modular and pattern-specific fashion

Post-Operative Functional Outcomes in Early Age Onset Rectal Cancer

Background: Impairment of bowel, urogenital and fertility-related function in patients treated for rectal cancer is common. While the rate of rectal cancer in the young (<50 years) is rising, there is little data on functional outcomes in this group. Methods: The REACCT international collaborative database was reviewed and data on eligible patients analysed. Inclusion criteria comprised patients with a histologically confirmed rectal cancer, <50 years of age at time of diagnosis and with documented follow-up including functional outcomes. Results: A total of 1428 (n=1428) patients met the eligibility criteria and were included in the final analysis. Metastatic disease was present at diagnosis in 13%. Of these, 40% received neoadjuvant therapy and 50% adjuvant chemotherapy. The incidence of post-operative major morbidity was 10%. A defunctioning stoma was placed for 621 patients (43%); 534 of these proceeded to elective restoration of bowel continuity. The median follow-up time was 42 months. Of this cohort, a total of 415 (29%) reported persistent impairment of functional outcomes, the most frequent of which was bowel dysfunction (16%), followed by bladder dysfunction (7%), sexual dysfunction (4.5%) and infertility (1%). Conclusion: A substantial proportion of patients with early-onset rectal cancer who undergo surgery report persistent impairment of functional status. Patients should be involved in the discussion regarding their treatment options and potential impact on quality of life. Functional outcomes should be routinely recorded as part of follow up alongside oncological parameters

The impact of surgical delay on resectability of colorectal cancer: An international prospective cohort study

AIM: The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has provided a unique opportunity to explore the impact of surgical delays on cancer resectability. This study aimed to compare resectability for colorectal cancer patients undergoing delayed versus non-delayed surgery. METHODS: This was an international prospective cohort study of consecutive colorectal cancer patients with a decision for curative surgery (January-April 2020). Surgical delay was defined as an operation taking place more than 4 weeks after treatment decision, in a patient who did not receive neoadjuvant therapy. A subgroup analysis explored the effects of delay in elective patients only. The impact of longer delays was explored in a sensitivity analysis. The primary outcome was complete resection, defined as curative resection with an R0 margin. RESULTS: Overall, 5453 patients from 304 hospitals in 47 countries were included, of whom 6.6% (358/5453) did not receive their planned operation. Of the 4304 operated patients without neoadjuvant therapy, 40.5% (1744/4304) were delayed beyond 4 weeks. Delayed patients were more likely to be older, men, more comorbid, have higher body mass index and have rectal cancer and early stage disease. Delayed patients had higher unadjusted rates of complete resection (93.7% vs. 91.9%, P = 0.032) and lower rates of emergency surgery (4.5% vs. 22.5%, P < 0.001). After adjustment, delay was not associated with a lower rate of complete resection (OR 1.18, 95% CI 0.90-1.55, P = 0.224), which was consistent in elective patients only (OR 0.94, 95% CI 0.69-1.27, P = 0.672). Longer delays were not associated with poorer outcomes. CONCLUSION: One in 15 colorectal cancer patients did not receive their planned operation during the first wave of COVID-19. Surgical delay did not appear to compromise resectability, raising the hypothesis that any reduction in long-term survival attributable to delays is likely to be due to micro-metastatic disease

Dynamic Flux Balance Modeling of Microbial Co-Cultures for Efficient Batch Fermentation of Glucose and Xylose Mixtures

Sequential uptake of pentose and hexose sugars that compose lignocellulosic biomass limits the ability of pure microbial cultures to efficiently produce value-added bioproducts. In this work, we used dynamic flux balance modeling to examine the capability of mixed cultures of substrate-selective microbes to improve the utilization of glucose/xylose mixtures and to convert these mixed substrates into products. Co-culture simulations of Escherichia coli strains ALS1008 and ZSC113, engineered for glucose and xylose only uptake respectively, indicated that improvements in batch substrate consumption observed in previous experimental studies resulted primarily from an increase in ZSC113 xylose uptake relative to wild-type E. coli. The E. coli strain ZSC113 engineered for the elimination of glucose uptake was computationally co-cultured with wild-type Saccharomyces cerevisiae, which can only metabolize glucose, to determine if the co-culture was capable of enhanced ethanol production compared to pure cultures of wild-type E. coli and the S. cerevisiae strain RWB218 engineered for combined glucose and xylose uptake. Under the simplifying assumption that both microbes grow optimally under common environmental conditions, optimization of the strain inoculum and the aerobic to anaerobic switching time produced an almost twofold increase in ethanol productivity over the pure cultures. To examine the effect of reduced strain growth rates at non-optimal pH and temperature values, a break even analysis was performed to determine possible reductions in individual strain substrate uptake rates that resulted in the same predicted ethanol productivity as the best pure culture