Network Structure Explains the Impact of Attitudes on Voting Decisions

Attitudes can have a profound impact on socially relevant behaviours, such as voting. However, this effect is not uniform across situations or individuals, and it is at present difficult to predict whether attitudes will predict behaviour in any given circumstance. Using a network model, we demonstrate that (a) more strongly connected attitude networks have a stronger impact on behaviour, and (b) within any given attitude network, the most central attitude elements have the strongest impact. We test these hypotheses using data on voting and attitudes toward presidential candidates in the US presidential elections from 1980 to 2012. These analyses confirm that the predictive value of attitude networks depends almost entirely on their level of connectivity, with more central attitude elements having stronger impact. The impact of attitudes on voting behaviour can thus be reliably determined before elections take place by using network analyses.Comment: Final version published in Scientific Report

Urnings:A new method for tracking dynamically changing parameters in paired comparison systems

We introduce a new rating system for tracking the development of parameters based on a stream of observations that can be viewed as paired comparisons. Rating systems are applied in competitive games, adaptive learning systems and platforms for product and service reviews. We model each observation as an outcome of a game of chance that depends on the parameters of interest (e.g. the outcome of a chess game depends on the abilities of the two players). Determining the probabilities of the different game outcomes is conceptualized as an urn problem, where a rating is represented by a probability (i.e. proportion of balls in the urn). This setup allows for evaluating the standard errors of the ratings and performing statistical inferences about the development of, and relations between, parameters. Theoretical properties of the system in terms of the invariant distributions of the ratings and their convergence are derived. The properties of the rating system are illustrated with simulated examples and its potential for answering research questions is illustrated using data from competitive chess, a movie review system, and an adaptive learning system for math

Do large language models solve verbal analogies like children do?

Analogy-making lies at the heart of human cognition. Adults solve analogies such as \textit{Horse belongs to stable like chicken belongs to ...?} by mapping relations (\textit{kept in}) and answering \textit{chicken coop}. In contrast, children often use association, e.g., answering \textit{egg}. This paper investigates whether large language models (LLMs) solve verbal analogies in A:B::C:? form using associations, similar to what children do. We use verbal analogies extracted from an online adaptive learning environment, where 14,002 7-12 year-olds from the Netherlands solved 622 analogies in Dutch. The six tested Dutch monolingual and multilingual LLMs performed around the same level as children, with MGPT performing worst, around the 7-year-old level, and XLM-V and GPT-3 the best, slightly above the 11-year-old level. However, when we control for associative processes this picture changes and each model's performance level drops 1-2 years. Further experiments demonstrate that associative processes often underlie correctly solved analogies. We conclude that the LLMs we tested indeed tend to solve verbal analogies by association with C like children do

Visuospatial working memory and mathematical ability at different ages throughout primary school.

a b s t r a c t a r t i c l e i n f o In this study, three aims were addressed: (1) validating a visuospatial working memory task in Math Garden, an adaptive online tool in which item difficulty and person ability are determined on the fly, (2) investigating the contribution of different item characteristics to the difficulty of the visuospatial working memory items, and (3) investigating relations between visuospatial working memory and various math domains at different ages. The method was validated by showing that item ratings were stable and grade differences in ability were significant. Regression analyses on the item level showed that not only sequence length, but also other characteristics, such as type of task (forward or backward), explained variance in item difficulty. Finally, regression analyses on the child level showed that visuospatial working memory and mathematics were significantly related: especially for addition and subtraction in the lower grades. For multiplication and division this relationship was weaker and without age trend

Major depression as a complex dynamic system

In this paper, we characterize major depression (MD) as a complex dynamical system in which symptoms (e.g., insomnia and fatigue) are directly connected to one another in a network structure. We hypothesize that individuals can be characterized by their own network with unique architecture and resulting dynamics. With respect to architecture, we show that individuals vulnerable to developing MD are those with strong connections between symptoms: e.g., only one night of poor sleep suffices to make a particular person feel tired. Such vulnerable networks, when pushed by forces external to the system such as stress, are more likely to end up in a depressed state; whereas networks with weaker connections tend to remain in or return to a healthy state. We show this with a simulation in which we model the probability of a symptom becoming active as a logistic function of the activity of its neighboring symptoms. Additionally, we show that this model potentially explains some well-known empirical phenomena such as spontaneous recovery as well as accommodates existing theories about the various subtypes of MD. To our knowledge, we offer the first intra-individual, symptom-based, process model with the potential to explain the pathogenesis and maintenance of major depression.Comment: 8 figure

Intermediate stable states in substance use

Many people across the world use potentially addictive legal and illegal substances, but evidence suggests that not all use leads to heavy use and dependence, as some substances are used moderately for long periods of time. Here, we empirically examine, the stability of and transitions between three substance use states: zero-use, moderate use, and heavy use. We investigate two large datasets from the US and the Netherlands on yearly usage and change of alcohol, nicotine, and cannabis. Results, which we make available through an extensive interactive tool, suggests that there are stable moderate use states, even after meeting criteria for a positive diagnosis of substance abuse or dependency, for both alcohol and cannabis use. Moderate use of tobacco, however, was rare. We discuss implications of recognizing three states rather than two states as a modeling target, in which the moderate use state can both act as an intervention target or as a gateway between zero use and heavy use

A Multidimensional IRT Approach for Dynamically Monitoring Ability Growth in Computerized Practice Environments

Adaptive learning systems have received an increasing attention as they enable to provide personalized instructions tailored to the behaviors and needs of individual learners. In order to reach this goal, it is desired to have an assessment system, monitoring each learner's ability change in real time. The Elo Rating System (ERS), a popular scoring algorithm for paired competitions, has recently been considered as a fast and flexible method that can assess learning progress in online learning environments. However, it has been argued that a standard ERS may be problematic due to the multidimensional nature of the abilities embedded in learning materials. In order to handle this issue, we propose a system that incorporates a multidimensional item response theory model (MIRT) in the ERS. The basic idea is that instead of updating a single ability parameter from the Rasch model, our method allows a simultaneous update of multiple ability parameters based on a compensatory MIRT model, resulting in a multidimensional extension of the ERS (“M-ERS”). To evaluate the approach, three simulation studies were conducted. Results suggest that the ERS that incorrectly assumes unidimensionality has a seriously lower prediction accuracy compared to the M-ERS. Accounting for both speed and accuracy in M-ERS is shown to perform better than using accuracy data only. An application further illustrates the method using real-life data from a popular educational platform for exercising math skills