Trade liberalisation under the Doha Development Agenda: Options and consequences for Africa

This study provides a quantitative estimate of the potential economic consequences of multilateral trade reform under the WTO for Africa using a framework that explicitly incorporates issues of concern to the region, such as preference erosion, loss of tariff revenue, and trade facilitation. It also examines the impact of OECD agricultural support programmes on economic welfare and specialisation in Africa. In the static version of the GTAP model, the study finds that full liberalisation of trade would increase global welfare (income) by 0.3 per cent, but would add 0.7 per cent annually to income in the African region. Sub-Saharan Africa and, to a lesser extent, Southern Africa, are vulnerable to partial trade reforms as they incur losses from partial reform while all other regions derive positive gains from a liberalisation of minor scop

Controlling and characterising the deposits from polymer droplets containing microparticles and salt

It is very well known that as suspension droplets evaporate, a pinned contact line leads to strong outwards capillary flow resulting in a robust coffee ring-stain at the periphery of the droplet. Conversely tall pillars are deposited in the centre of the droplet when aqueous droplets of poly(ethylene oxide) evaporate following a boot-strapping process in which the contact line undergoes fast receding, driven by polymer precipitation. Here we map out the phase behaviour of a combined particle-polymer system, illustrating a range of final deposit shapes, from ring-stain to flat deposit to pillar. Deposit topologies are measured using profile images and stylus profilometery, and characterised using the skewness of the profile as a simple analytic method for quantifying the shapes: pillars produce positive skew, flat deposits have zero skew and ring-stains have a negative value. We also demonstrate that pillar formation can be disrupted using potassium sulphate salt solutions, which change the water from a good solvent to a thetapoint solvent, consequently reducing the size of the polymer coils. This inhibits polymer crystallisation, interfering with the bootstrap process and ultimately preventing pillars from forming. Again, the deposit shapes are quantified using the skew parameter

Consequences of the Doha Round Trade Reforms for Africa

This paper provides a quantitative estimate of the potential economic consequences of multilateral trade reform for Africa using a framework that explicitly incorporates issues of concern to the region, such as preference erosion, loss of tariff revenue, and trade facilitation. The results suggest that while African countries would derive modest gains from full liberalization in a static model, the gains are likely to be substantial in a dynamic setting. Furthermore, they suggest that countries in sub-Saharan Africa are likely to incur losses under partial reforms. Since other regions of the world derive positive gains from partial reforms and it is unlikely that there will be complete liberalization in the current round of negotiations, the results underscore the need for development issues to be taken more seriously in the negotiations. More specifically, they stress the need to strengthen special and differential treatment provisions for African countries, and least developed countries in general, to allow them cushion the likely negative impact that may result from partial reforms

Consequences of the Doha Round Trade Reforms for Africa

This paper provides a quantitative estimate of the potential economic consequences of multilateral trade reform for Africa using a framework that explicitly incorporates issues of concern to the region, such as preference erosion, loss of tariff revenue, and trade facilitation. The results suggest that while African countries would derive modest gains from full liberalization in a static model, the gains are likely to be substantial in a dynamic setting. Furthermore, they suggest that countries in sub-Saharan Africa are likely to incur losses under partial reforms. Since other regions of the world derive positive gains from partial reforms and it is unlikely that there will be complete liberalization in the current round of negotiations, the results underscore the need for development issues to be taken more seriously in the negotiations. More specifically, they stress the need to strengthen special and differential treatment provisions for African countries, and least developed countries in general, to allow them cushion the likely negative impact that may result from partial reforms

Covid-19 home confinement negatively impacts social participation and life satisfaction: A worldwide multicenter study

Public health recommendations and governmental measures during the new coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic have enforced numerous restrictions on daily living including social distancing, isolation, and home confinement. While these measures are imperative to mitigate spreading of COVID-19, the impact of these restrictions on psychosocial health is undefined. Therefore, an international online survey was launched in April 2020 to elucidate the behavioral and lifestyle consequences of COVID-19 restrictions. This report presents the preliminary results from more than one thousand responders on social participation and life satisfaction. Methods: Thirty-five research organizations from Europe, North-Africa, Western Asia, and the Americas promoted the survey through their networks to the general society, in 7 languages (English, German, French, Arabic, Spanish, Portuguese, and Slovenian). Questions were presented in a differential format with questions related to responses “before” and “during” confinement conditions. Results: 1047 participations (54% women) from Asia (36%), Africa (40%), Europe (21%), and others (3%) were included in the analysis. Findings revealed psychosocial strain during the enforced COVID-19 home confinement. Large decreases (p < 0.001) in the amount of social activity through family (−58%), friends/neighbors (−44.9%), or entertainment (−46.7%) were triggered by the enforced confinement. These negative effects on social participation were also associated with lower life satisfaction (−30.5%) during the confinement period. Conversely, the social contact score through digital technologies significantly increased (p < 0.001) during the confinement period with more individuals (+24.8%) being socially connected through digital technology. Conclusion: These preliminary findings elucidate the risk of psychosocial strain during the early COVID-19 home confinement period in 2020. Therefore, in order to mitigate the negative psychosocial effects of home confinement, implementation of national strategies focused on promoting social inclusion through a technology-based solution is strongly suggested. © 2020 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland

Globally altered sleep patterns and physical activity levels by confinement in 5056 individuals: ECLB COVID-19 international online survey

Symptoms of psychological distress and disorder have been widely reported in people under quarantine during the COVID-19 pandemic; in addition to severe disruption of peoples’ daily activity and sleep patterns. This study investigates the association between physical-activity levels and sleep patterns in quarantined individuals. An international Google online survey was launched in April 6th, 2020 for 12-weeks. Forty-one research organizations from Europe, North-Africa, Western-Asia, and the Americas promoted the survey through their networks to the general society, which was made available in 14 languages. The survey was presented in a differential format with questions related to responses “before” and “during” the confinement period. Participants responded to the Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index (PSQI) questionnaire and the short form of the International Physical Activity Questionnaire. 5056 replies (59.4% female), from Europe (46.4%), Western-Asia (25.4%), America (14.8%) and North-Africa (13.3%) were analysed. The COVID-19 home confinement led to impaired sleep quality, as evidenced by the increase in the global PSQI score (4.37 ± 2.71 before home confinement vs. 5.32 ± 3.23 during home confinement) (p &lt; 0.001). The frequency of individuals experiencing a good sleep decreased from 61% (n = 3063) before home confinement to 48% (n = 2405) during home confinement with highly active individuals experienced better sleep quality (p &lt; 0.001) in both conditions. Time spent engaged in all physical-activity and the metabolic equivalent of task in each physical-activity category (i.e., vigorous, moderate, walking) decreased significantly during COVID-19 home confinement (p &lt; 0.001). The number of hours of daily-sitting increased by ~2 hours/days during home confinement (p &lt; 0.001). COVID-19 home confinement resulted in significantly negative alterations in sleep patterns and physical-activity levels. To maintain health during home confinement, physical-activity promotion and sleep hygiene education and support are strongly warranted. © 2021 Institute of Sport. All rights reserved

The ASOS Surgical Risk Calculator: development and validation of a tool for identifying African surgical patients at risk of severe postoperative complications

Background: The African Surgical Outcomes Study (ASOS) showed that surgical patients in Africa have a mortality twice the global average. Existing risk assessment tools are not valid for use in this population because the pattern of risk for poor outcomes differs from high-income countries. The objective of this study was to derive and validate a simple, preoperative risk stratification tool to identify African surgical patients at risk for in-hospital postoperative mortality and severe complications. Methods: ASOS was a 7-day prospective cohort study of adult patients undergoing surgery in Africa. The ASOS Surgical Risk Calculator was constructed with a multivariable logistic regression model for the outcome of in-hospital mortality and severe postoperative complications. The following preoperative risk factors were entered into the model; age, sex, smoking status, ASA physical status, preoperative chronic comorbid conditions, indication for surgery, urgency, severity, and type of surgery. Results: The model was derived from 8799 patients from 168 African hospitals. The composite outcome of severe postoperative complications and death occurred in 423/8799 (4.8%) patients. The ASOS Surgical Risk Calculator includes the following risk factors: age, ASA physical status, indication for surgery, urgency, severity, and type of surgery. The model showed good discrimination with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.805 and good calibration with c-statistic corrected for optimism of 0.784. Conclusions: This simple preoperative risk calculator could be used to identify high-risk surgical patients in African hospitals and facilitate increased postoperative surveillance. © 2018 British Journal of Anaesthesia. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.Medical Research Council of South Africa gran