Blowin\u27 in the wind: Short-term weather and belief in anthropogenic climate change.

Abstract A series of polls provides new tests for how weather influences public beliefs about climate change. Statewide data from 5000 random-sample telephone interviews conducted on 99 days over 2.5 yr (2010-12) are merged with temperature and precipitation indicators derived from U.S. Historical Climatology Network (USHCN) station records. The surveys carry a question designed around scientific consensus statements that climate change is happening now, caused mainly by human activities. Alternatively, respondents can state that climate change is not happening, or that it is happening but mainly for natural reasons. Belief that humans are changing the climate is predicted by temperature anomalies on the interview day and the previous day, controlling for season, survey, and individual characteristics. Temperature effects concentrate among one subgroup, however: individuals who identify themselves as independent, rather than aligned with a political party. Interviewed on unseasonably warm days, independents tend to agree with the scientific consensus regarding anthropogenic climate change. On unseasonably cool days, they tend not to agree. Although temperature effects are sharpest for just a 2-day window, positive effects are seen for longer windows as well. As future climate change shifts the distribution of anomalies and extremes, this will first affect beliefs among unaligned voters

Regional variation in perceptions about climate change.

A 2007 survey covering rural areas in nine US states provides data on perceived local impacts of climate change. Perceptions vary from region to region, with a pattern suggesting links to real climate specifically to winter warming in snow country. A multivariate analysis using mixed-effects ordered logit regression confirms a significant perception-temperature relationship, net of individual background and ideological characteristics, and of regional variations. These findings invite more detailed research

Arctic warming and your weather: Public belief in the connection

Will Arctic warming affect mid-latitude weather? Many researchers think so, and have addressed this question through scientific articles and news media. Much of the public accepts such a connection as well. Across three New Hampshire surveys with more than 1500 interviews, 60% of respondents say they think future Arctic warming would have major effects on their weather. Arctic/weather responses changed little after Superstorm Sandy brushed the region, but exhibit consistently strong partisan divisions that grow wider with education. Belief in an Arctic/weather connection also varies, in a nonlinear pattern, with the temperature anomaly around day of interview. Interviewed on unseasonably warm or cool days, respondents are more likely to think that Arctic warming would have major effects on their weather. This unscientific response seems to mirror the scientific discussion about extremes

Why Are Prices Sticky? The Dynamics of Wholesale Gasoline Prices

The menu-cost interpretation of sticky prices implies that the probability of a price change should depend on the past history of prices and fundamentals only through the gap between the current price and the frictionless price. We find that this prediction is broadly consistent with the behavior of 9 Philadelphia gasoline wholesalers. We nevertheless reject the menu-cost model as a literal description of these firms' behavior, arguing instead that price stickiness arises from strategic considerations of how customers and competitors will react to price changes.

Ski areas, weather and climate: Time series models for New England case studies

Wintertime warming trends experienced in recent decades, and predicted to increase in the future, present serious challenges for ski areas and whole regions that depend on winter tourism. Most research on this topic examines past or future climate-change impacts at yearly to decadal resolution, to obtain a perspective on climate-change impacts. We focus instead on local-scale impacts of climate variability, using detailed daily data from two individual ski areas. Our analysis fits ARMAX (autoregressive moving average with exogenous variables) time series models that predict day-to-day variations in skier attendance from a combination of mountain and urban weather, snow cover and cyclical factors. They explain half to two-thirds of the variation in these highly erratic series, with no residual autocorrelation. Substantively, model results confirm the backyard hypothesis that urban snow conditions significantly affect skier activity; quantify these effects alongside those of mountain snow and weather; show that previous-day conditions provide a practical time window; find no monthly effects net of weather; and underline the importance of a handful of high-attendance days in making or breaking the season. Viewed in the larger context of climate change, our findings suggest caution regarding the efficacy of artificial snowmaking as an adaptive strategy, and of smoothed yearly summaries to characterize the timing-sensitive impacts of weather (and hence, high-variance climate change) on skier activity. These results elaborate conclusions from our previous annual-level analysis. More broadly, they illustrate the potential for using ARMAX models to conduct integrated, dynamic analysis across environmental and social domains

Global electric field determination in the Earth's outer magnetosphere using charged particles

Although many properties of the Earth's magnetosphere have been measured and quantified in the past 30 years since it was discovered, one fundamental (for a zeroeth order magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) equilibrium) measurement was made infrequently and with poor spatial coverage: the global electric field. This oversight is in part due to the difficulty of measuring a plasma electric field, and in part due to the difficulty of measuring a plasma electric field, and in part due to the neglect of theorists. However, there is renewed interest in the convection electric field, since it has been realized that it is vital for understanding many aspects of the magnetosphere: the global MHD equilibrium, reconnection rates, Region 2 Birkeland currents, magnetosphere-ionosphere coupling, ring current and radiation belt transport, substorm injections, acceleration mechanisms, etc. Unfortunately the standard experimental methods have not been able to synthesize a global field (excepting the pioneering work of McIlwain's geostationary models), and we are left with an overly simplistic theoretical field, the Volland-Stern electric field mode. Again, single point measurements of the plasma pause were used to infer the appropriate amplitudes of the model, parameterized by Kp (Maynard & Chen, JGR 1975). Although this result was never intended to be the definitive electric field model, it has gone nearly unchanged for 15 years. However, the data sets being taken today require a great deal more accuracy than can be provided by the Volland-Stern model. Nor has the variability of the electric field shielding been properly addressed, although effects of penetrating magnetospheric electric fields has been seen in mid- and low-latitude ionospheric data sets. The growing interests in substorm dynamics also requires a much better assessment of the electric fields responsible for particle injections. Thus, we proposed and developed algorithms for extracting electric fields from particle data taken in the earth's magnetosphere. As a test of the effectiveness of these techniques, we analyzed data taken by the AMPTE/CCE spacecraft in equatorial orbit between 1984-1988. Some analytic tools had to be developed before construction of computer algorithms, and they are discussed

Is New Hampshire\u27s climate warming?

This Carsey brief looks at temperature anomalies across New Hampshire and shows that not only is the state warmer than it has been in the past, but it is also warming faster than much of the planet. Sociologist Lawrence Hamilton, research associate professor Cameron Wake, and former NH state climatologist Barry Keim analyzed over 100 years of temperatures across the state to produce this data for the Carsey Institute in August 2010

Reduction and scientific analysis of data from the charge-energy-mass (CHEM) spectrometer on the AMPTE/CCE spacecraft

The Charge-Energy-Mass (CHEM) spectrometer instrument on the AMPTE/Charge Composition Explorer (CCE) spacecraft is designed to measure the mass and charge-state abundance of magnetospheric and magnetosheath ions between 0.3 and 315 keV/e, an energy range that includes the bulk of the ring current and the dynamically important portion of the plasma sheet population. Continuing research is being conducted using the AMPTE mission data set, and in particular, that of the CHEM spectrometer which has operated flawlessly since launch and still provides excellent quality data. The requirted routine data processing and reduction, and software develpment continues to be performed. Scientific analysis of composition data in a number of magnetospheric regions including the ring current region, near-earth plasma sheet and subsolar magnetosheath continues to be undertaken. Correlative studies using data from the sister instrument SULEICA, which determines the mass and charge states of ions in the energy range of approximately 10 to 250 keV/e on the IRM, as well as other data from the CCE and IRM spacecraft, particularly in the upstream region and plasma sheet have also been undertaken

Metamaterials for light rays: ray optics without wave-optical analog in the ray-optics limit

Volumes of sub-wavelength electromagnetic elements can act like homogeneous materials: metamaterials. In analogy, sheets of optical elements such as prisms can act ray-optically like homogeneous sheet materials. In this sense, such sheets can be considered to be metamaterials for light rays (METATOYs). METATOYs realize new and unusual transformations of the directions of transmitted light rays. We study here, in the ray-optics and scalar-wave limits, the wave-optical analog of such transformations, and we show that such an analog does not always exist. Perhaps, this is the reason why many of the ray-optical possibilities offered by METATOYs have never before been considered.Comment: 10 pages, 3 figures, references update